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[wachie]

Yeah I guess you dont want to bother anymore, even owning up to mistakes.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

It's not. AoU is about $50M ahead of the 3rd highest dom gross in the MCU and $130M ahead of the 4th. So no, it's not hanging around the "B" level films.

It's hilarious that you're accusing anyone of mental gymnastics because you need to have the mental flexibility of Gumby in order to consider a $456M dom gross a disappointment more than a success. Your obvious retort to this is going to be that you do actually consider AoU a hit, but your need to to describe it first and foremost as a disappointment borders on pathological. No one speaks this way of the BO performance of Spider-man 2 or TDKR or Empire Strikes Back or Pirates 2 or Transformers 3. And then there's the fact that the first Avengers is one of four movies to ever gross more than $600M in the history of American cinema, and only 5 have ever managed to break $500M. Consider that maybe, just fucking maybe, the performance of a movie being overestimated to break into the top 4 grossing films of all time does not necessarily mean it's a disappointment once it fails to do so. We know that box office performance is almost always directly tied to the strength of a movie's opening weekend. We also know that after a certain upper threshold, opening weekend estimates and their subsequent projected totals are unreliable.

On a related note, what qualifies as an "event" film anyway? Was Jurassic World an "event" film? Furious 7? Avatar? Titanic? The answer is firmly no. Box office giants are only labeled such after the fact because most of them simply cannot be predicted. If Ep VII has a good but not great BO performance, will it still be an "event" movie? Or is such a description only possible after resounding success is achieved? There is no such thing as an "event" movie, that's just something you've concocted because for some bizarre reason, you have to put down AoU before begrudgingly acknowledging that it's nothing short of a spectacular financial success with only a handful of peers.

Avatar and Titanic weren't event films? Are you high? They were the definition of Event films.

Event films are the type of films that still see showings still sold out in their third week. The kind of movie you can't help hear people talking about at work etc because everybody and their dog are going to see them.

 

[JimmyRustler]

Just saw Pixels with my kids. Not half bad for what it is. After renting Vice from Redbox because I was bored this movie was a freaking masterpiece. I don't believe it deserved to bomb.

I second that. Just saw Pixels in the Sneak Preview here and after the shitty review expected an aweful movie but it.... Was surprisingly decent. Can someone explain to me why Pixels gets killed by critics and Spy praysed? I don't get it. It wasn't even half as stupid and actually had some funny jokes.

 

[mreddie]

I hear Antman needs to makes $300 million to break even, is that true?

 

[Lima]

I second that. Just saw Pixels in the Sneak Preview here and after the shitty review expected an aweful movie but it.... Was surprisingly decent. Can someone explain to me why Pixels gets killed by critics and Spy praysed? I don't get it. It wasn't even half as stupid and actually had some funny jokes.

People have different opinions. Especially when it comes to humor. Shocking, I know.

 

[guek]

Avatar and Titanic weren't event films? Are you high? They were the definition of Event films.

Event films are the type of films that still see showings still sold out in their third week. The kind of movie you can't help hear people talking about at work etc because everybody and their dog are going to see them.

I meant were they labeled such prior to release. I'd argue no. There are some movies that are bankable and therefore come with a heightened levels of anticipation but even those rarely break into the top 5 BO despite the hype. Avatar and Titanic were landmark events but they weren't absolute locks for the BO crown prior to release, just like AoU was never a lock for breaking 600M domestic.

I hear Antman needs to makes $300 million to break even, is that true?

Sounds like the age old estimate of doubling the budget to estimate total cost + marketing. Ant-Man only cost $130M to make though so I doubt it needs to hit $300M to break even. It'll pass that for sure WW anyway.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

I meant were they labeled such prior to release. I'd argue no. There are some movies that are bankable and therefore come with a heightened levels of anticipation but even those rarely break into the top 5 BO despite the hype. Avatar and Titanic were landmark events but they weren't absolute locks for the BO crown prior to release, just like AoU was never a lock for breaking 600M domestic.

Tge term 'event film' comes after the fact, not before. It's when it officially becomes a point you can mark in pop culture because it's memorable. You can still see the lines of people going around the corner of cineplexes.

Not to be interchanged with 'tentpole'. And yes I'm aware that studios like to market their own films as 'the event movie of the year'. But that has never made it so.

Jaws is another example of an event movie.

 

[guek]

Tge term 'event film' comes after the fact, not before. It's when it officially becomes a point you can mark in pop culture because it's memorable. You can still see the lines of people going around the corner of cineplexes.

Not to be interchanged with 'tentpole'. And yes I'm aware that studios like to market their own films as 'the event movie of the year'. But that has never made it so.

Jaws is another example of an event movie.

I'm not disagreeing with this. Events are labeled after the fact, I said as much in my original post.

 

[JimmyRustler]

People have different opinions. Especially when it comes to humor. Shocking, I know.

That does not explain a 95% vs. 18% ratio on RT. Not one fucking bit.

 

[wachie]

Tge term 'event film' comes after the fact, not before. It's when it officially becomes a point you can mark in pop culture because it's memorable. You can still see the lines of people going around the corner of cineplexes.

Not to be interchanged with 'tentpole'. And yes I'm aware that studios like to market their own films as 'the event movie of the year'. But that has never made it so.

Jaws is another example of an event movie.

Stop concocting things like "event films".

&$&@%@%@moves goalpost@#$%&

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

That does not explain a 95% vs. 18% ratio on RT. Not one fucking bit.

It literally explains it entirely.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

Stop concocting things like "event films".

&$&@%@%@moves goalpost@#$%&

Bro, you're Mr. Goalposts.

And the term 'event film' has been around since the late 70s.

 

[witness]

My favorite event film was easily The Dark Knight. Everyone was talking about it, people who never watch superhero movies went and saw it. Truly a cultural event.

 

[wachie]

Bro, you're Mr. Goalposts.

And the term 'event film' has been around since the late 70s.

Read the last page.

Spoiler

I'm not mocking you, in fact you and me are on the same page.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

Read the last page.

Spoiler

I'm not mocking you, in fact you and me are on the same page.

Are we?

I thought you were the guy trying to selectively ignore re-release grosses (which is the equivalent of only accounting for one factor), then jokingly suggesting others might as well account for inflation.

You're doing the thing you think others are doing. Changing the reported numbers to fit whatever narrative you're trying to spin - in this case, Jurassic World out grossing Titanic.

 

[guek]

Bro, you're Mr. Goalposts.

And the term 'event film' has been around since the late 70s.

I'll happily admit that my original post was unclear and convoluted. The reality is that "event films" don't follow a predictive pattern, which renders the criticism that AoU should have been a predictive "event" in cinema unfounded. It's just another arbitrary qualifier to try to downplay the movie's success rather than simply admitting its projected performance was over estimated.

BobbyRoberts was saying something similar about SW7. The expectations are so unreasonably high now that if it fails to meet them, the emphasis will be put on the shortfall rather than the actual success. Thankfully SW7 isn't coming immediately off the back of a chart topping entry so perhaps the hyperbole won't be as bad.

 

[wachie]

Are we?

I thought you were the guy trying to selectively ignore re-release grosses (which is the equivalent of only accounting for one factor), then jokingly suggesting others might as well account for inflation.

You're doing the thing you think others are doing. Changing the reported numbers to fit whatever narrative you're trying to spin - in this case, Jurassic World out grossing Titanic.

That's another discussion, one not at hand.

Boy do you hold grudges or what for anything said against Titanic or Cameron.

Yes, I think accounting for re-release is idiotic. The only goalpost moving is when you allow for that and don't allow for inflation adjustment.

EDIT - It looks like *favorite* movie is clouding most people from objectively discussing the numbers. I keep my all-time films aside and don't let that cloud my judgement when coming to discussing their box office numbers.

 

[Lima]

That does not explain a 95% vs. 18% ratio on RT. Not one fucking bit.

Then look at other factors.

Most reviewers hate Adam Sandler and what his recent output means for the movie industry. Seriously read some of the reviews. There is some toxic stuff in there. Of course reviewers shouldn't let that influence their opinion but hey it doesn't work like that.

Sometimes you just can't explain this stuff. I mean why does Event Horizon have 6.7 on imdb and is highly regarded among a very sizable fan base but got less than favorable reviews back in 1997? I mean it stands at 24% on RT.

 

[Matt_]

Sony need to step their game up with the trailers for Hotel Transylvania 2
The trailer shown before my Inside Out showing today got no reaction whatsoever, and admittedly the trailer they keep showing is awful

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

That's another discussion, one not at hand.

Boy do you hold grudges or what for anything said against Titanic or Cameron.

Yes, I think accounting for re-release is idiotic. The only goalpost moving is when you allow for that and don't allow for inflation adjustment.

EDIT - It looks like *favorite* movie is clouding most people from objectively discussing the numbers. I keep my all-time films aside and don't let that cloud my judgement when coming to discussing their box office numbers.

The re-release is part of its theatrical release and reported numbers everywhere. I'm not adjusting any numbers. These are the numbers as reported because there is no 'objective' discussion regarding numbers. That's why we go with reported numbers. The reason you keep having to add the qualifier of 'original run' to Titanic is because you are adjusting numbers.

And I don't hold grudges. You just brought up moving goalposts so I clarified why we weren't on the same page.

 

[kswiston]

So Boxoffice.com pointed out that China's box office is on track to pass $900M in July. The Domestic July gross (including Canada's box office) is currently sitting $1.07B. Granted China is having a fantastic month while July's domestic gross has been middling, but this has to be the closest a foreign territory has come to matching domestic box office in a given month.

If China continues to see 25%+ annual growths, the US will be the second largest territory for movie box office by the end of the decade.

4 of China's Top 5 highest grossing films of all time were released in the past 4 months. The 5th film (Transformers 4) was released last year.

In actual BO news, Ant-Man won Monday with a unimpressive take of $3.3M. yaaay
With MI:5 tracking in the low 40s, it seems July has been a pretty underwhelming month.

Based on the Incredible Hulk and The Wolverine (which both had similar opening weekends and finishes), Ant-Man seems to be in good shape to hit $150M domestic at least.

Hopefully good reviews help Rogue Nation out some.

 

[Messofanego]

That does not explain a 95% vs. 18% ratio on RT. Not one fucking bit.

Even people who liked Pixels admit it's not a good movie. While, Spy is. And is much more interesting. Has better jokes and timing. Better actors. Simple things like that.

 

[Abounder]

Do you happen to have links to those articles?

Not off the top of my head no, but there was an article stating that a beer company paid over 20 million pounds to have Bond drink their beer in the film (and presumably for the right to market their beer as Bond's choice as well).

Deadline has this article about profitability from 2014's top hits, the link has a more browser-friendly version of the chart, breaking down where the money comes and goes (Mahvel IPs took in over $700M profit!):

http://deadline.com/2015/03/most-profitable-movies-of-2014-box-office-1201390489/

Rank…Movie…Profit (in millions)
1. Transformers: Age Of Extinction – $250.155
2. American Sniper – $242.58
3. The Lego Movie – $229.008
4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 – $211.609
5. Guardians of the Galaxy – $204.2
6. Maleficent – $190.77
7. Big Hero 6 – $187.339
8. Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes – $182.179
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier – $166.224
10. 22 Jump Street – $144.476
11. Neighbors – $136.05
12. Gone Girl – $129.99
13. How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $107.337
14. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies – $103.379
15. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles – $81.31
16. X-Men: Days Of Future Past – $77.384
17. Divergent – $71.868
18. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $70.377
19. Godzilla – $52.477
20. Interstellar – $47.161

 

[guek]

Based on the Incredible Hulk and The Wolverine (which both had similar opening weekends and finishes), Ant-Man seems to be in good shape to hit $150M domestic at least.

What do you think its chances are of limping its way to match Cap1's $176M gross? First Avenger opened a little higher but also had a higher 2nd week drop. Ant-Man is about $10M or so behind comparing their second weekends so I'm not too hopeful...

 

[Toothless]

I can't respect your opinions on movies anymore if you say Pixels is better than Spy, Tomorrowland, Minions, Pitch Perfect 2, Ant Man, and Jurassic World. Sorry

If you think Tomorrowland and Minions are examples of good movies, then the feeling's mutual

Inside Out? (You are Anger after all.)

Oh, sorry, if I wasn't clear. Inside Out and Mad Max: Fury Road are both excellent films. Like they top every summer blockbuster since 2010 in my opinion. They're masterpieces of the highest order of cinema. Everything else this summer though... has been pretty disappointing. I should be happy with Inside Out and Mad Max, I guess.

 

[Messofanego]

If you think Tomorrowland and Minions are examples of good movies, then the feeling's mutual

I haven't seen Minions or am willing to fight much for Tomorrowland but I'm just guessing it would be less infuriating than what Pixels looks like, which could've been as good as Wreck It Ralph if it weren't for what sounds like a convoluted script for what should be a simple fun premise.

 

[faridmon]

Wow, $350 million?!

Wouldn't that make it the most expensive film to date?


And doesn't that mean that it needs to gross like $1 billion to be considered a commercial success?

Bond movies actually is helped by Product Placements and UK Film institute financed it a bit.

 

[kswiston]

What do you think its chances are of limping its way to match Cap1's $176M gross? First Avenger opened a little higher but also had a higher 2nd week drop. Ant-Man is about $10M or so behind comparing their second weekends so I'm not too hopeful...

Probably not that great, unless it holds better by 5-10% in weeks 3-5.

 

[JimmyRustler]

Then look at other factors.

Most reviewers hate Adam Sandler and what his recent output means for the movie industry. Seriously read some of the reviews. There is some toxic stuff in there. Of course reviewers shouldn't let that influence their opinion but hey it doesn't work like that.

Sometimes you just can't explain this stuff. I mean why does Event Horizon have 6.7 on imdb and is highly regarded among a very sizable fan base but got less than favorable reviews back in 1997? I mean it stands at 24% on RT.

Well, putting it that way does explain a lot.

Even people who liked Pixels admit it's not a good movie. While, Spy is. And is much more interesting. Has better jokes and timing. Better actors. Simple things like that.

It really has neither man.

 

[milanbaros]

Wasnt keeping track of the overseas for Ultron, so it didnt gross less. Playing your percentages game, it's currently at a whopping increase of 4.7%. That's like a rounding error compared to other MCU sequels overseas numbers. What Marvel would have been more happy with would be TDKR like performance, decrease in domestic but still an increase WW. And Ultron didnt even have a stigma like the Aurora shooting attached to it.

Just to address your point about the overseas gross, the USDX (weighted strength of USD) on 1st May 2012 was 78.82 and 94.77 on 1st May 2015. That strengthening of the USD over that period is the equivalent to 100 NONUSD currency equaling around 17% less than it did when the first movie released.

A 5% increase in overseas box office is therefore comparable to about a 26% increase in overseas revenue.

i.e. 95*1.05*(1/79)

This is a story of US decrease, nothing else.

 

[Messofanego]

It really has neither man.

Have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[kswiston]

So after Monday and Tuesday's results, Avengers is now ahead of Jurassic World on the weekdays as well as the weekends in the same point in its run. Jurassic World won't take the #2 spot domestically barring a major re-expansion/re-release.

Vacation made $1.2M from early Tuesday previews.

 

[guek]

Ant-Man did well yesterday with $4.2M
Minions still strong with $4.0M. Kinda mind boggling it's done $270M already domestically
Pixels netted $3.7M
Trainwreck had $2.5M
Southpaw finished in the top 5 with $2.2M

Looks like Ant-Man will lead the pack up to the weekend when it's knocked out by MI:5.

 

[Toothless]

I haven't seen Minions or am willing to fight much for Tomorrowland but I'm just guessing it would be less infuriating than what Pixels looks like, which could've been as good as Wreck It Ralph if it weren't for what sounds like a convoluted script for what should be a simple fun premise.

I don't think it's convoluted at all. It's actually refreshingly straightforward, that's one of the things I enjoyed about it. Still, it's definitely not a movie for everyone so I understand your disinterest. I had the same disinterest until I saw it.

 

[kswiston]

Ant-man should be pretty close to passing Incredible Hulk's domestic total this weekend. $150m is looking like a lock. $160m looking probable.

 

[kswiston]

Thursday Previews for Mission Impossible 5 were $4.0M. About the same as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes last year, or Fury Road earlier this year.

 

[Schweinehund]

Wonder if we'll find out if we'll get Ant Man 2 at D23. IIRC GoTG 2 was announced a month or two after it's premiere at a comic con.

It's hard to tell at this point without China & Japan's #'s if a sequel will be greenlit.

 

[mreddie]

Wonder if we'll find out if we'll get Ant Man 2 at D23. IIRC GoTG 2 was announced a month or two after it's premiere at a comic con.

It's hard to tell at this point without China & Japan's #'s if a sequel will be greenlit.

We likely won't hear any sequel talk til the rest of the countries get it, we need that Scott/Hope team up after Infinity Wars.

Also, CRUISE MISSILE INBOUND!

 

[Pai Pai Master]

Wonder if we'll find out if we'll get Ant Man 2 at D23. IIRC GoTG 2 was announced a month or two after it's premiere at a comic con.

It's hard to tell at this point without China & Japan's #'s if a sequel will be greenlit.

Way too early, its clear they were already planning a phase 3 GOTG sequel and that movie was such a runaway success that it made sense to go ahead and confirm the sequel.

Ant-Man might still be a little more up in the air and it's very unlikely we'll see the sequel until Phase 4

 

[mreddie]

Way too early, its clear they were already planning a phase 3 GOTG sequel and that movie was such a runaway success that it made sense to go ahead and confirm the sequel.

Ant-Man might still be a little more up in the air and it's very unlikely we'll see the sequel until Phase 4

Feige said they could fit one more film into the Phase but I doubt it's gonna close P3.

 

[AMUSIX]

Feige said they could fit one more film into the Phase but I doubt it's gonna close P3.

I could see it replacing Inhumans, and they pushing Inhumans into the opening of Phase 4.

 

[kswiston]

Monster Hunt from China passed Spirited Away's record for largest single territory gross for a foreign film. It looks likely to hit $350M at this point. $300M is locked. China went from having 1 film that barely broke $200M (Avatar) as of 18 months ago, to having three films over $300M in the past year and a bit.

YTD Chinese box office is sitting at around $4B USD. The domestic box office is sitting at $6.7B in the same time frame. In 2014, Chinese box office was $4.84B in total for the entire year.

 

[kswiston]

Early Friday numbers are putting Rogue Nation at $22-25M for Friday, which would give it a similar or higher weekend as Ant-man a couple of weeks back.

Vacation will likely end up with about $20M over its 5-day opening.

 

[guek]

Early Friday numbers are putting Rogue Nation at $22-25M for Friday, which would give it a similar or higher weekend as Ant-man a couple of weeks back.

Vacation will likely end up with about $20M over its 5-day opening.

Good for MI, it sounds like word of mouth gave it a solid boost

 

[kswiston]

Friday estimates

1) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $20.4m
2) Vacation - $4.5m - $11m total
3) Ant-man - $3.6m - $123m total
4) Minions - $3.6m - $279m total

 

[mreddie]

So I'm hearing Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation is heading for a $50 mill opening and it's huge. Meanwhile, the same people when Ant-Man did $50 mill in its opening called it a disappointment.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

So I'm hearing Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation heading for a $50 mill opening and it's huge. Meanwhile, the same people when Ant-Man did $50 mill in its opening called it a disappointment.

This is the caliber of post you guys have to look forward to when Star Wars doesn't break the OW record in december

brace yourselves, folks!

 

[mreddie]

This is the caliber of post you guys have to look forward to when Star Wars doesn't break the OW record in december

brace yourselves, folks!

"Hey guys, Force Awakens was a good mo..."

"120 MILLION OW, IT'S A BOMB!"

 

[Wanderer5]

Around $50 million would put it around how well MI3 did on opening weekend, and better than MI4's $29 million (through that one still had some pretty good legs, and did very well foreign wise).

 

[mreddie]

How much did each movie cost to get out?

Antman: 130 million
Rogue Nation: 150 million

The same ballpark pretty much.