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Wkd BO 0724-2615 - The fault in Sandler's movie career... Lil ant-man that could
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Can you elaborate? I'm not even judging Ultron by comparing F7 or JW, just it's predecessor.
Wasnt keeping track of the overseas for Ultron, so it didnt gross less. Playing your percentages game, it's currently at a whopping increase of 4.7%. That's like a rounding error compared to other MCU sequels overseas numbers. What Marvel would have been more happy with would be TDKR like performance, decrease in domestic but still an increase WW. And Ultron didnt even have a stigma like the Aurora shooting attached to it.
No, if we are talking "objectively" then it's not within 1% of Thor 2, Incredible Hulk and Iron Man 2.
Multipliers
Ultron - 2.38x (current)
Iron Man 3 - 2.38x
Thor 2 - 2.40x
Incredible Hulk - 2.43x
Iron Man 2 - 2.43x
Cap 2 - 2.73x
Even if it crawls to 460M lifetime, it wont be within 1% of Iron Man 2's multiplier.
Depends on the amount of profit and goals. Even ASM2 managed to churn out a small profit, and it's by no means a success. I don't think Ant-Man would be a success at $450M, it would take home about half of that at $225M. Ant-Man's production budget was $130M, then add marketing which can match that production cost as well...and you've got numbers that aren't very pretty and are disappointing for MCU's brand building and Ant-Man's word of mouth.
Yea around $350M, but that's before $20M in Mexican incentives. Spectre definitely has billion dollar shoes to fill and I think it will make it. From the Sony leaks and MGM's president of the motion picture group about the ballooning budget:
The franchise has been consistently growing since GoldenEye, I wouldn't expect much different with Spectre. If the quality is there, a billion is assured.
These are worst case scenario numbers to determine success imo. Take home is likely ends more than that, and marketing is likely less, at least at Marvels expense. By your current logic, the first Thor and Captain America movies would not be successful, as both made less than 450 on bigger budgets. In the end Marvel has a good start with this character, that will get continued exposure leading up to a sequel.
True but I still think it'd be more disappointing than not. In my opinion Phase 2 and Robert Downey Jr. are the money-makers for the MCU so far, and Phase 1's marketing was likely significantly less considering Hollywood's ballooning trends on that front. Compared to those numbers Ant-Man is disappointing, and time will tell if it finds eventual success through a sequel/universe of its own like Guardians and the Phase 1 Marvel verse.
It already outgrossed Titanic.
If they try to milk it ala Titanic with some sort of additional scenes/effects etc. it has an outside chance to beat Titanic's multiple run figure.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
No, it didn't. It's not like Titanic's re-release never happened, and that extra 50 million didn't come in. That money counts towards the total, like it does for any other film and their re-releases.
Just like Gone with the Wind's 50+ runs, while we're there why not adjust for inflation.
Which makes me wonder how the 80s would have been like if the internet was around, and box office reporting was what it is today.
Empire Strikes back was down 32% from Star Wars, which would have been comparable to AoU grossing $424M after Avengers' $623M.
Sequels to "once in several years" breakthrough films tend to have pretty big drops. Age of Ultron dropped more than some (and more than a lot of us expected), but even considering that, you can't spin $460ish million as a low gross, just as you couldn't spin $209M in 1980 as a low gross.
I'm sure Marvel would have preferred an increase Worldwide. Unfortunately, lower than expected domestic grosses (and weak holds in Europe) made that impossible. $1.4B isn't exactly going to lose them money though.
I should have specified that I was using first weekend percentage of total gross:
Age of Ultron - 41.9% (or 2.39x)
Iron Man 3 - 42.6% (or 2.35x)
Iron Man 2 - 41.0% (or 2.44x)
Thor 2 - 41.5% (or 2.41x)
Incredible Hulk - 41.1% (or 2.43x)
So basically, AoU's first weekend will end up accounting for less than 1% more than all of the films above. Probably 0.5% by the time it finishes its run. If you prefer to look at the multipliers instead, the difference will end up being less than 2%.
Lets lowball the remainder of AoU's run for the sake of argument, and say that it finishes up with a 2.40x multiplier. You are basically trying to argue that this result signifies meaningfully worse legs than other MCU sequels that finished with 2.41-2.44x multipliers. Even when we start talking about grosses in the $450M+ range, we are talking about a difference of $8M between a 2.40x and 2.44x multiplier.
Trying to paint AoU in as worse a light as possible just hurts the valid points that you do make. No one made much of a stink that Furious 7 was more frontloaded than Fast 5 or 6 (and will end up being slightly more front-loaded than Age of Ultron). Sequels are expected to be frontloaded. Especially when they are making $27.6M in Thursday preview grosses.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
What are you even doing here
That's fair. In the end it will depend on what Marvel/Disney was expecting for the film. Phase 2 vs Phase 1 numbers.
There is no point trying to lump marketing budgets into Ant-Man's (or most tentpole releases') profitability calculation. When you subtract the money that Disney just paid to its other media subsidiaries, money from product placement, co-marketing deals, licensing, etc, it will be a wash at worst. Recuperating the marketing budget is a bigger issue with low budget films that have no real streams of revenue outside of various stages of direct media consumption (box office, home video, rentals/tv/streaming deals). There were some good articles related to this that came out around the time of Skyfall and Man of Steel, as both of those films had their Marketing budgets heavily subsidized (and featured a lot of product placement deals).
$450M would is a great result for a $130M film. $450M is still solid even if Ant-Man was under-reported and was closer to $150-160M. Godzilla's Reported budget was $160M, and it had its sequel fast tracked after a final WW gross of $520M. That's enough for a new franchise to work with. I have no idea how the film will do in China. Pixar films haven't traditionally grossed all that much there, but China is obviously a wildcard.
That said, I always got the impression that Marvel went ahead with Ant-man because it was in pre-production for so long. Ya, it isn't the hit that the other phase 2 films were, but given that their release schedule is packed for the next 4 years, I doubt they even care as long as it ends up in the black. A sequel was never coming soon, and I doubt they bother at this point unless all of their new Phase 3 franchises flop.
Probably not, but it's not impossible yet. Jurassic World would have to start posting 20-25% drops ASAP though.
Germany and China are the only big territories left, but it has a handful of European territories and most of Asia to open in still. Over 20 territories in all. Also, the UK just opened, so I expect that it has a decent amount left in the tank there as well. I think $700M will be the low end gross for Inside Out.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Looks like Fury Road will end up above San Andreas after all.
Now you are putting words in my mouth. 400M+ heck even 300M isnt a low figure by any means.
You admit that Ultron grossed less than even our pessimistic expectations which is exactly what I'm saying - Ultron isnt some B level movie in the MCU to say this kind of performance is spectacular.
If this was a Thor 3 or heck even Cap 3 it wouldnt be disappointing. This is arguably Marvel's
This was an event film, the fact we're comparing it trivial episodic filler films is actually doing a lot of mental gymnastics to say the movie is not a disappointment. And I'm not even sure why you are doing so when in your own words you admit the movie failed to even meet the lowered expectations.
Making fun of re-runs and adjusting for inflation.
Didn't Skyfall have a huge marketing push with the London Olympics opening ceremony watched by millions around the world?
It kinda seems like "We can finally use Antman and Wasp now!"
I doubt the people who watched the show know that this movie is coming out.
There's hype in my heart
i do wonder if the best year for it though
Who knew spies would make such a great comeback in one year.
with the excellent Kingsman, fun Spy, the amazing mission Impossible and we still have the King left to come this year
Future Foundation
Member
Do you happen to have links to those articles?
I keep forgetting about it.
That's loads better than just realizing it existed a day ago.
I doubt it'll make bank, but I'm not into the gross game, myself.
Feels like something that should have dropped at the beginning of summer or maybe spring.
If it weren't for Kingsman I could see it in January or February.
It seems like some fun background noise on tv. *shrug*
I liked the trailer for The Man from Uncle, hopefully its TV marketing won't let it down
Plus other movies like Minions and Star Wars practically paid for itself and then some through marketing deals, but I think Ant-Man carried a tiny impact by comparison especially when it comes to licensing. Anyway you're right it's not accurate to use the mysterious marketing budgets, and Ant-Man is really only a disappointment compared to MCU's hits (and whether or not it has a sequel-verse of its own). Godzilla did pull in Phase 2 numbers in China, it'll be interesting to see how Ant-Man fares at the end of the stacked September schedule for that market. MCU definitely has some flexibility going forward, but Phase 2 should have ended with a bang than a whimper
Plus other movies like Minions and Star Wars practically paid for itself and then some through marketing deals, but I think Ant-Man carried a tiny impact by comparison especially when it comes to licensing. Anyway you're right it's not accurate to use the mysterious marketing budgets, and Ant-Man is really only a disappointment compared to MCU's hits (and whether or not it has a sequel-verse of its own). Godzilla did pull in Phase 2 numbers in China, it'll be interesting to see how Ant-Man fares at the end of the stacked September schedule for that market. MCU definitely has some flexibility going forward, but Phase 2 should have ended with a bang than a whimper
Messofanego
Banned
I just saw a poster for this on london underground. Had no idea it was coming out. But it's Guy Ritchie so I'll wait for reviews. Last one of his I saw in cinema was Rock n Rolla and that was only good for the chase scene with some snorricam.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
So Genisys is not even making it to 350M, is it?
I don't see those sequels happening.
I don't see those sequels happening.
The film opens in China next month, and people following the Chinese box office think that it has a shot at $100M there. Grosses were pretty good in South Korea and Hong Kong, so maybe. I can't see Genisys doing less than $60M in China, which would put the film around $400M with holdover grosses.
It will for sure top Fury Road.
Not off the top of my head no, but there was an article stating that a beer company paid over 20 million pounds to have Bond drink their beer in the film (and presumably for the right to market their beer as Bond's choice as well).
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Alright then. Thought it was out everywhere already.
Regardless of the Chinese gross, I hope the financiers take a look at the reception that Genisys is getting, combined with the fact that it is down $40M in North America (even with Arnold), and decide to skip on sequels.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
The only way this story has anything remotely resembling a happy ending is if the way forward involves making it a horror film again and capping the budget at like, 75-80 mil. Force whatever the next movie is to be a mid-budget, small scale horror flick with a single killer robot.
But I get the feeling that Terminator is too far gone (by about 20 years) to go back there.
It's not. AoU is about $50M ahead of the 3rd highest dom gross in the MCU and $130M ahead of the 4th. So no, it's not hanging around the "B" level films.
It's hilarious that you're accusing anyone of mental gymnastics because you need to have the mental flexibility of Gumby in order to consider a $456M dom gross a disappointment more than a success. Your obvious retort to this is going to be that you do actually consider AoU a hit, but your need to to describe it first and foremost as a disappointment borders on pathological. No one speaks this way of the BO performance of Spider-man 2 or TDKR or Empire Strikes Back or Pirates 2 or Transformers 3. And then there's the fact that the first Avengers is one of four movies to ever gross more than $600M in the history of American cinema, and only 5 have ever managed to break $500M. Consider that maybe, just fucking maybe, the performance of a movie being overestimated to break into the top 4 grossing films of all time does not necessarily mean it's a disappointment once it fails to do so. We know that box office performance is almost always directly tied to the strength of a movie's opening weekend. We also know that after a certain upper threshold, opening weekend estimates and their subsequent projected totals are unreliable.
On a related note, what qualifies as an "event" film anyway? Was Jurassic World an "event" film? Furious 7? Avatar? Titanic? The answer is firmly no. Box office giants are only labeled such after the fact because most of them simply cannot be predicted. If Ep VII has a good but not great BO performance, will it still be an "event" movie? Or is such a description only possible after resounding success is achieved? There is no such thing as an "event" movie, that's just something you've concocted because for some bizarre reason, you have to put down AoU before begrudgingly acknowledging that it's nothing short of a spectacular financial success with only a handful of peers.
Kingsman ain't a summer blockbuster. It's certainly better than Pixels.
Spy is good, but I didn't have much fun with it. I respected it, and it made me chuckle a few times, but ultimately it didn't do much for me.
This I agree with. IMO, now a film has to do either 200M DOM or 500M WW to be a true blockbuster. So Fury Road wouldn't count as a blockbuster in my mind.
Avengers has gotten better just because of how mediocre this summer ended up being. Ant-Man and Jurassic World were pretty snooze-fest and Tomorrowland and Minions are trash. Spy was alright, and San Andreas was fun in a stupid way. Pitch Perfect 2 was Pitch Perfect 2, not much to say there. Think that's it...
Mad Season
Banned
They're all about to be shot down by a cruise missile
Messofanego
Banned
I can't respect your opinions on movies anymore if you say Pixels is better than Spy, Tomorrowland, Minions, Pitch Perfect 2, Ant Man, and Jurassic World. Sorry
Inside Out? (You are Anger after all.)
TheKaeptain
Banned
I got invited to a screening of it. Had to decline.
Warners are already running TV spots for the film in the UK and it doesn't open here until the 14th of August.
It's clear that they aren't burying the film though I do think that it's going to get beaten to the top spot by Universal's Straight Outta Compton.
Discotheque
Banned
i actually think man from uncle looks quite good. very slick and stylish.
but honestly that weekend i'm going to have to watch straight outta compton instead. it's a movie about NWA man...
but honestly that weekend i'm going to have to watch straight outta compton instead. it's a movie about NWA man...
Messofanego
Banned
1. Follow the conversation, hint it was about multipliers.
2. Stop taking posts out of context, I'm going to ignore the rest of your tirade because its baseless.
Avatar was an event film, same with Titanic. I would also qualify the end of major franchises as an event film - TDKR, HP8. Because of the surprising successes of Avengers and JW, their sequels will rightfully be considered as event films. SW7 is without a shadow of doubt, an event film too.
The long anticipation for these films, the die-hard fan following for years to release is all in my head. Yes, I have single handedly concocted this concept. The delusion and rage in your post, yeesh.
I guess I'll just follow kswiston and BobbyRoberts' lead and just not bother anymore. When someone wants to believe something so feverishly, they'll justify their belief any way possible.
In actual BO news, Ant-Man won Monday with a unimpressive take of $3.3M. yaaay
With MI:5 tracking in the low 40s, it seems July has been a pretty underwhelming month.
In actual BO news, Ant-Man won Monday with a unimpressive take of $3.3M. yaaay
With MI:5 tracking in the low 40s, it seems July has been a pretty underwhelming month.
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