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[Abounder]

So I'm hearing Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation is heading for a $50 mill opening and it's huge. Meanwhile, the same people when Ant-Man did $50 mill in its opening called it a disappointment.

High mark for one franchise, low mark for another; both with great word of mouth

 

[wachie]

Around $50 million would put it around how well MI3 did on opening weekend, and better than MI4's $29 million (through that one still had some pretty good legs, and did very well foreign wise).

You are looking at the wide release weekend. Ghost Protocol had already grossed 32M before it did the 29M wide release weekend.

 

[kswiston]

Around $50 million would put it around how well MI3 did on opening weekend, and better than MI4's $29 million (through that one still had some pretty good legs, and did very well foreign wise).

Ghost Protocol opened a week early in 425 theatres and made close to $13M. By the time it had that $29M gross you mention, it was already sitting at $62M. That was also in the middle of winter holidays so not really comparable. Its second wide release weekend was down 0.5% from its first.

MI3 almost killed the franchise, since it was another $150M movie and made a disappointing $134M domestic and $395M worldwide. MI2 made $545M off a smaller budget 6 years prior, and even MI1 made more money back in 1996.


I am sure that Rogue Nation will do excellent business overseas, but a $50M opening for the series is not all that great. The franchise had openings in that range 20 years ago.

High mark for one franchise, low mark for another; both with great word of mouth

Mission Impossible 2 opened to $57M over 15 years ago, and that was after the film opened on a Wednesday burning off $20M in business. This isn't a high water mark. Given typical summer legs at this point in the year, MI5 will likely ended up the second lowest grossing film in the series domestically with a $50M start.

 

[Abounder]

Mission Impossible 2 opened to $57M over 15 years ago, and that was after the film opened on a Wednesday burning off $20M in business. This isn't a high water mark. Given typical summer legs at this point in the year, MI5 will likely ended up the second lowest grossing film in the series domestically with a $50M start.

True but it also beats the tracking by $10m and has one of the highest opening days for the Cruise missile. Worldwide should be huge for the franchise, and hopefully has better than average legs. It's a good movie!

 

[kswiston]

True but it also beats the tracking by $10m and has one of the highest opening days for the Cruise missile. Worldwide should be huge for the franchise, and hopefully has better than average legs. It's a good movie!

Tracking was only in the $40M range according to Fandango which has no accuracy at all. Most places were expecting $48-60M this weekend.

The film obviously has no worries thanks to the likely great international gross, but $50M is sort of a mediocre opening for the franchise given that this is a summer release and previous entries were in that range 10-20 years ago.

Other than Minions, this has been a weak year for July releases.

 

[Abounder]

Tracking was only in the $40M range according to Fandango which has no accuracy at all. Most places were expecting $48-60M this weekend.

The film obviously has no worries thanks to the likely great international gross, but $50M is sort of a mediocre opening for the franchise given that this is a summer release and previous entries were in that range 10-20 years ago.

Other than Minions, this has been a weak year for July releases.

According to Forbes M:I5 is a solid win for the franchise, and would be Cruise's third biggest weekend for what it's worth. And also slightly beat the studio's own forecasting, I think the franchise is trending up especially if the legs are there unless I'm drinking the koolaid (it was a very fun movie) Edit: Also no 3D

Family demo rules, Minions must've made a huge profit off of all the licensing crap too. Even Star Wars might come second in profit versus Minions lol

 

[vinnygambini]

Ghost Protocol opened a week early in 425 theatres and made close to $13M. By the time it had that $29M gross you mention, it was already sitting at $62M. That was also in the middle of winter holidays so not really comparable. Its second wide release weekend was down 0.5% from its first.

MI3 almost killed the franchise, since it was another $150M movie and made a disappointing $134M domestic and $395M worldwide. MI2 made $545M off a smaller budget 6 years prior, and even MI1 made more money back in 1996.

I am sure that Rogue Nation will do excellent business overseas, but a $50M opening for the series is not all that great. The franchise had openings in that range 20 years ago.

Mission Impossible 2 opened to $57M over 15 years ago, and that was after the film opened on a Wednesday burning off $20M in business. This isn't a high water mark. Given typical summer legs at this point in the year, MI5 will likely ended up the second lowest grossing film in the series domestically with a $50M start.

I think $50+ million is fine for Mission Impossible as the Cruise brand has dwindled since.

Furthermore, the profit sharing contract must be different as previously Cruise commanded a $25 million salary (actor, producing) + first dollar gross - it's no longer the case now, I believe it's now $15 million + back-end, they are most likely much more profitable for the studio comparatively to the MI3 days.

 

[kswiston]

Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $56.0M
2) Vacation - $14.9 - $21M total
3) Ant-Man - $12.6M - $132M total
4) Minions - $12.2M - $287M total
5) Pixels - $10.4M- $46M total
6) Trainwreck - $9.7M - $80M total
7) Southpaw - $7.5M - $32M total
8) Paper Towns - $4.6M - $23M total
9) Inside Out - $4.5M - $330M total
10) Jurassic World - $3.8M - $631M total

Worldwide Totals

Ant-Man - $291M
Minions - $855M
Inside Out - $602M
Avengers: Age of Ultron - $1.398B
Jurassic World - $1.560B

 

[kswiston]

Updated my previous post with full top 10 numbers. Rogue Nation held well on Saturday. $56M is a pretty good start.

 

[a secret-boss]

Nice for Rogue Nation

 

[mreddie]

Antman shrinks to 3 but healthy, Vacation does...ehhh. Pixels...

Of course, the Cruise Missile hits and it's a hit. Much deserved to him.

What a odd month in the BO.

 

[Mimosa97]

No one is talking about Southpaw

The movie deserves more attention.

 

[Peru]

Sad to see genuine shit like Minions beat out Inside Out - not that the latter hasn't done great.

 

[kswiston]

Sad to see genuine shit like Minions beat out Inside Out - not that the latter hasn't done great.

If you are talking about domestic grosses, Minions won't catch Inside Out. Overseas has never had taste when it comes to their preferred animated films so no real surprise there.

 

[And_Gignac]

Sad to see genuine shit like Minions beat out Inside Out - not that the latter hasn't done great.

Inside out is yet to open in many territories (Japan specially, I think?). Minions did good but it kind of had bad to meh legs.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Sad to see genuine shit like Minions beat out Inside Out - not that the latter hasn't done great.

Eh I'm not sure which I enjoyed more. All the good parts from the Minions were in the trailers, but Inside Out mislead the fuck out of me.

 

[wachie]

Good fo Cruise missile

 

[Draconian]

Tracking was only in the $40M range according to Fandango which has no accuracy at all. Most places were expecting $48-60M this weekend.

The film obviously has no worries thanks to the likely great international gross, but $50M is sort of a mediocre opening for the franchise given that this is a summer release and previous entries were in that range 10-20 years ago.

Other than Minions, this has been a weak year for July releases.

Paramount was projecting a $40 mil opening as well, but whatever you say.

 

[Toothless]

Rogue Nation should make 200M DOM. Very nice for the Cruise Missile.

 

[kswiston]

Paramount was projecting a $40 mil opening as well, but whatever you say.

Studio tracking almost always low ball their estimates. When they don't you get an Age of Ultron situation.

Rogue Nation should make 200M DOM. Very nice for the Cruise Missile.

I don't know about $200M on a $56M debut, but it should be well over $150M if legs are decent.

 

[Future Foundation]

Paramount was projecting a $40 mil opening as well, but whatever you say.

Don't studios like to project on the lower end? To keep from looking bad if they go crazy and it ends up short or something, right?

 

[Kathian]

Studio tracking almost always low ball their estimates. When they don't you get an Age of Ultron situation.

By an Age of Ultron situation you mean a sequel failing to do as well as its predecessor in its opening weekend? i.e. not whats happened here?

That's fine for MI; it'll do very well internationally on top of that.

 

[kswiston]

Don't studios like to project on the lower end? To keep from looking bad if they go crazy and it ends up short or something, right?

Not only that, but what incentive do they have to release accurate tracking? I'm pretty sure studio tracking is just FUD most of the time. If a movie does well they can say it beat all expectations. If a movie does poorly, then it looks like they were expecting meager results.

There's no way in hell that a small independent site like Boxoffice.com would actually have better tracking than major studios less than a week from debut, but it often looks that way if you take studio tracking at face value.

By an Age of Ultron situation you mean a sequel failing to do as well as its predecessor in its opening weekend? i.e. not whats happened here?

That's fine for MI; it'll do very well internationally on top of that.

No, I mean that Disney posted that they expect the opening weekend to go down on Thursday or Friday, and then suffered blow back when Age of Ultron missed that mark by $16M. Also, Ghost Protocol had advanced previews for a week (earning $17M) and went wide on a Wednesday. That $29M on box office mojo is not at all a reflection of its opening. $40M would have been the worst opening for the series by a decent margin. $56M is pretty good.


Worldwide total for MI5 is $121M
Terminator Genisys is at $318M worldwide

 

[The Outsider]

Tracking was only in the $40M range according to Fandango which has no accuracy at all. Most places were expecting $48-60M this weekend.

The film obviously has no worries thanks to the likely great international gross, but $50M is sort of a mediocre opening for the franchise given that this is a summer release and previous entries were in that range 10-20 years ago.

Other than Minions, this has been a weak year for July releases.

Updated my previous post with full top 10 numbers. Rogue Nation held well on Saturday. $56M is a pretty good start.

So, uh, which one is it?

 

[kswiston]

So, uh, which one is it?

$56M is better than the earlier ~$50M numbers we were getting. At least that is significantly over MI:3, even if MI:2 remains the series high water point.

MI:5 is still going to most likely come in under Ghost Protocol domestically, which is a tad disappointing given that I was hoping that we were seeing a Fast and Furious like resurgence. Hopefully overseas grosses more than make up for that.

EDIT: Before we start getting into $56M is basically the same as $50M debates, a difference of $6M opening weekend probably translates into a difference of $20M or so domestic total. I would call that fairly significant for a movie that will end in the $150-200M range. Some people might not.