PhoncipleBone
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Wkd BO 1223-2516 - bomba Ass, Passengers, Sing as audiences continue to go Rogue
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I can't see any reason why the drop off would be so dramatic to do closer to Rogue One. TFA did over 900, Rogue One tracking to do over 500.
Unless Rian Johnson drops the ball Episode 8 is going to do over 700 mil pretty easily.
And eh Avatar 2 will do great but domestically It just will struggle to compete with the Star Wars juggernaut. Episode 8 should do over 700, Han Solo over 400, Episode 9 over 700. Avatar 2 probably will be around 500 domestic if it hits 2018. Overseas it will be a absolute monster though. It isnt too outrageous to think that think Han Solo could beat Avatar 2 domestically in 2018 if Avatar isn't pushed back again (worldwide not a chance). It would be surprising if they weren't at least within 100 mil of each other.
It would be pretty damn fun though if Lord & Miller could outdo Cameron domestically in 2018. I mean their whole career has been pulling off movie feats that shouldn't be possible after all.
hmm, just looked it up and that Han Solo spinoff is penciled in for may 2018
I wouldn't be surprised if it gets pushed to December of that year like Episode VIII. it just makes sense from a marketing perspective... more people are out and shopping in December for christmas presents, getting exposed to all the toys and other merchandise for the new star wars movie.
it would also destroy avatar 2 at the box office
I wouldn't be surprised if it gets pushed to December of that year like Episode VIII. it just makes sense from a marketing perspective... more people are out and shopping in December for christmas presents, getting exposed to all the toys and other merchandise for the new star wars movie.
it would also destroy avatar 2 at the box office
CrichtonKicks
Member
Despite all of the love that Empire rightfully it gets, it was still down massively over Star Wars. Quality isn't the end all-be all.
I think Episode 8 will outgross R1 but still end up closer to R1's gross than TFA. Somewhere between 600-700 million.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I mean, maybe I'm just old now, and the natural conservatism of old age is starting to set in here, but I just can't get comfortable with expecting 600 million domestic from a film, as it's floor, even if it's Star Wars.
That just seems weird to me.
And of course, like most old people, I'm going to be proved utterly wrong in that conservatism, aren't I. Hah.
That just seems weird to me.
And of course, like most old people, I'm going to be proved utterly wrong in that conservatism, aren't I. Hah.
An Avengers to Age of Ultron drop for TFA to Ep8 is $690M domestic.
CrichtonKicks
Member
Before R1 released, I was thinking $600 million for Episode 8. Basically the numbers we were realistically thinking TFA would hit before that film released.
But I was also thinking R1 would end up being in the $400-450 range for total gross. Now, I kind of feel like like the floor for the series needs to be re-evaluted.
But, yeah, that sort of expectation going to blow up at some point and it's going to lead to an eventual "Ep 8/9/Han Solo/Obi-Wan only made $450 million domestic. Is it over for Star Wars and time for a reboot?" thread down the line.
Honestly, this forum will absolutely melt down if Episode 8 makes less than R1 domestically.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
That's a pretty ballsy prediction.
I can't see Infinity War being topped in 2018.
There's also some Disney stuff that has no release date right now... I wonder if they'll make it for 2018. Frozen 2? Live action Lion King?
TFA is 4th with its $90m third weekend. (and not to be too technical, but R1 is 2nd TFA 3rd)
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Jesus. I'd already forgotten what a monster TFA was.
Ah ok, forgot about that. Was just thinking December releases.
Yeah it's domestic run is unbelievable and I don't think anything touches that $936m for like 20 years. Even if IX is just as good/opens just as big, I think SW fatigue may have started setting in and its run isn't as leggy.
I saw it today and that was basically what I experienced too.
Whole theater starting going crazy during that last part of the movie, and then everyone stood up to clap and cheer at the end. I liked the movie, but not that much lol.
I know it's just my anecdotal experience, but people seemed to love it and even after being out over a week, all IMAX showings were sold out today. I was lucky to buy a single numbered seat in a nice spot like 2 days ago.
PS: I hate that IMAX is almost never non-3D, I had to take the glasses off a few times cause it was making me sick.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I dunno. I feel like if Lord & Miller make a better Guardians than Guardians, but with Han & Lando? and CHEWIE?
You got a shot at #1, definitely.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
I actually think Ep. IX could be the one to topple the opening weekend because we've basically hit the opening weekend ceiling with TFA. Grow Thursday showings a little, raise ticket prices some more, seems pretty doable by then. Plus being the end of the Sequel Trilogy will be a big ol' deal. Not impossible to imagine Avengers doing it too, with the Avengers 4 ending the current era of Marvel, as I understand it. Avatar 2 will be interesting also, but I've always been firmly in the camp that it'll do much less business than the original, particularly domestically (while still being quite successful). And I really don't see it pulling a mega opener.
But yeah, the sheer momentum after that opening though, for something that big, that's going to be a tough one to beat any time soon. Like you said, those 2nd and 3rd weekends will last a good while.
Also, holy fuck, it JUST dawned on me Disney has Episode IX AND Avengers 4 in one year. The end of the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy AND the end of an era for Marvel. Fuck, and Indiana Jones 5, Toy Story 4, and two live action fairy tales. Jesus fuck, this fucking company lol
MHWilliams
Member
Lord and Miller with Glover doing Lando. I expect big things. Young Han Solo going to mess some people up.
If Rogue One is about showing Disney Lucasfilm can explore other genres, Han Solo is about showing that you can trust them with other stories featuring the classic characters.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Old? Are you even 40?
Escape Goat
Member
When someone on GAF says they're old they're probably 26.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I was born in 77. I'll turn 40 about 6mo after Star Wars does.
I guess it's not the years, it's the mileage. To quote a famous archaeologist.
This is a big part of it, I think. Hell, I've been referring to it as the Han & Lando movie ever since he was cast. Because that's basically what it is now.
I guess it's not the years, it's the mileage. To quote a famous archaeologist.
This is a big part of it, I think. Hell, I've been referring to it as the Han & Lando movie ever since he was cast. Because that's basically what it is now.
Except Leo. Leo is the last tycoon of Hollywood.
People will go see a movie because Leo is in it. I know I do.
Infinite Stars
Member
The problem with Warcraft wasn't Jones not caring about the source, the problem was that Jones tried to jam everything Warcraft related into the first film.
Honestly, trying to tell the story from both sides was an issue in the film.
Warcraft is like an explicit counterfactual to the idea that all we need is a huge fan to make a video game film, LOL. It was so in love with itself that it just assumed the audience would be too, with nothing in itself to justify it. It's basically the wiki-fan-site of movies.
The fact that Leo got Revenant to over $500 million is insane. There's still at least one movie star left in this industry.
I'll say the opposite, I think he did a damn fine job with it and picked the best absolute best part of lore to start with.
Having the two sides also removed it from LOTR and most fantasy titles.
The film simply needed more time and better structure. You're right, he tried to jam too much into the flick, but it wasn't the two sides. That actually gave it far more life than the other way around. It was the film feeling like an outline. It wanted to cover so many events when really it should have cut a few to save for the sequel.
i.e. Anything about Mediveh being corrupted should have been hinted at, but saved for the sequel. It's a major plot point that is 100% videogame knowledge and has no point in being in the film yet... that he is corrupted by the big baddie. So anyone who hasn't seen the film is left wondering why is there is a random demon coming out of him at the end?
Two, again, you can have hints of the romance, but it should have been dropped in favor of actually developing the characters more. Rather than jumping place to place or event to event, it needed that down time. Something like Fellowship of the Ring, where it starts off more as adventure.
When is the last time Leo picked a bad movie? Best I can think of is something like Body of Lies or J Edgar, which aren't bad, but not good movies either.
When Smith was fire, everyone went to see him. Hancock may not have been a great movie, but it was fun and let his charm shine. Yet CB is just terrible, Concussion is just terrible. But people like him in SS because it's a film that let's his charm take center stage.
I find it unlikely Avengers 4 will break the opening week record with the (slight) downward arc we're seeing with the MCU. The weight of the inter-continuity is causing it to creak just a little. Episode IX will have a big advantage there in that it will "only" require familiarity with 5 of the biggest movies in cinema history.
broncobuster
Banned
Whichever Avengers joins GotG with the rest will probably top the first Avengers. I don't know. I expected Spider-Man in Civil War to make a bigger impact, but maybe an actual Avengers titled movie will do it.
Obliterator
Member
As a big fan of the Marvel films I kinda feel like the ceiling has been reached on the franchise a bit in terms of individual film gross. Don't get me wrong, still huge movies, and they will be for many years to come. But I don't think we will see a ton more huge record setting performances from them.
The first part of Infinity War might pass Avengers 1 gross if it's good though. Just due to people finally getting to see what Thanos who has been hyped for years is all about
The first part of Infinity War might pass Avengers 1 gross if it's good though. Just due to people finally getting to see what Thanos who has been hyped for years is all about
Maybe this is just my bias but I don't see how Thanos can live up to the anticipation of him sitting in a chair and cackling about next time for like 5 movies now. Actually, do people even really care about Thanos?
CaviarMeths
Member
I actually quite liked Warcraft up until in completely shit the bed in the last 10 minutes just so that it could hook you in for a sequel that will never happen.
As someone only casually familiar with Warcraft, I never felt invested in any of the characters, because the movie just seemed to assume I was already a fan of the games. Durotan was the only character they remotely bothered to make interesting. All of the human stuff was awful.
Really? Gut feeling says that a standalone Han Solo movie is more appealling to the mainstream than Rogue One; I expect this one to be more lighthearted and funny compared to other Star Wars movies, plus if the Han + Lando combo works in this movie and outside of it then I can see this becoming easily a more profitable movie than RO
Lord Frieza
Member
I didn't? I mean, Batman '89 and Superman '78 were huge films, but they didn't lead to a mass amount of comic book adaptations outside sequels in their own franchises. X-Men and Spider-Man lead to an explosion of superhero adaptations that's still going pretty strong.
It's not so much about appeal as it is my feeling that Rogue One is still benefitting from a general audience high from the return of Star Wars. At least in North America. Han Solo will be the 4th Star Wars film in a period of 3 years. Also, 2018 has a lot more competition for #1. Especially if we are talking about worldwide grosses.
Lord and Miller are fantastic. And it's a script by Kasdan (who has said it's his best SW script he has worked on).
It's going to be Guardians of the Galaxies but with Han and Lando. Very little chance they don't hit it out of the park.
It's a far more appealing concept and much better writer and director combo than Rogue One.
I think too many people forget this is a Han and Lando one-off adventure comedy sorry of GOTG style movie done by an impeccable creative team and instead have this image in their head it is some sort of super hero origin story type of movie about how Han Solo got his vest.
It's going to be Guardians of the Galaxies but with Han and Lando. Very little chance they don't hit it out of the park.
It's a far more appealing concept and much better writer and director combo than Rogue One.
I think too many people forget this is a Han and Lando one-off adventure comedy sorry of GOTG style movie done by an impeccable creative team and instead have this image in their head it is some sort of super hero origin story type of movie about how Han Solo got his vest.
I assume that the 4-day weekend actuals will start coming out between 3-5pm, but Rth had Rogue one at $32M on Monday as of 9 hours ago. If that holds, Rogue One will score the second biggest Monday of all time, behind TFA's first Monday (but ahead of TFA's second Monday). Disney's estimate yesterday was $31.7M.
If his numbers hold up, Sing, Passengers, Why Him?, and Assassins Creed were overpredicted on Monday. Fences and Moana were under predicted. As I suggested yesterday, Moana was significan't underpredicted, with Rth's estimate putting it at $4.4M vs Disney's $3.0M on Monday. That isn't the first time Disney has made some weird calls with Moana.
If his numbers hold up, Sing, Passengers, Why Him?, and Assassins Creed were overpredicted on Monday. Fences and Moana were under predicted. As I suggested yesterday, Moana was significan't underpredicted, with Rth's estimate putting it at $4.4M vs Disney's $3.0M on Monday. That isn't the first time Disney has made some weird calls with Moana.
Vault Dweller 111
Member
Everything is just arguing which Disney movies take #1, 2, 3 and onward. Lol
Rogue One will pass and stay ahead of The Dark Knight with Today's gross.
The gross through Jan 2nd (day 18) should easily top $450M. TDK was at $400M even after 18 days (then a record to that milestone).
EDIT:
Rogue One was the 11th fastest film to $200M and $250M. It was the 6th fastest to $300M.
$350M should happen tomorrow (on Day 13), making it the 4th fastest film to that mark. It will also be the 4th fastest to $400M. It might tie The Avengers for third fastest to $450M (in 17 days), but the holidays run out after that and Rogue One will start dropping back from The Avengers.
I think people are underestimating the Han fucking Solo part of the Han Solo spin-off.
At least in the UK he is always ranked as the most popular Star Wars character by a long, long way. We're talking double the percentage of second place. I can't see him fairing any worse in the US.
Rogue One had a lot of work to do because while it was hitting beats from the OT, it had no real singular hook. Han Solo sells himself.
At least in the UK he is always ranked as the most popular Star Wars character by a long, long way. We're talking double the percentage of second place. I can't see him fairing any worse in the US.
Rogue One had a lot of work to do because while it was hitting beats from the OT, it had no real singular hook. Han Solo sells himself.
Sure, but that's very much tied into Harrison Ford's performance. Will the character be as appealing with a different actor? We'll see.
It depends on how crucial her character is. They might only need to change things for Episode IX.
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