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[darkinstinct]

I'm probably missing a few areas, but it just seems like $600M is a long way to go. Lets say it only does $150M more domestically and then low ball $200M or so in China. Can it cover $350M more in the remaining territories?

I think you can expect 140 million domestic for the remaining weeks, 220 million domestic in China and another 130 million foreign from now on. That would put it at 910 + 220 + 950 = 2.1 billion when all is said and done. It will be a close third. 250 million foreign excluding China is not going to happen.

My domestic is based on the sub 30 million weekend right now. I expect it to do another 10 million today and 8 tomorrow. After that it will finish its run pretty much like Jurassic World did.

 

[BumRush]

India has opened, and doesnt matter much anyway. With a 32M first day, there is a decent chance that Star Wars will miss $200M in China.

Big American blockbusters tend to make only $10-15m in India, right?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

That was just the era. Jedi was $32.5M, Ghostbusters was $30M, Aliens was $18M.

True, but even then, Jedi & Ghostbusters are triple Khan's budget. ALIENS is almost double.

Paramount getting 7x return on investment with Khan (along with the money they were making on Friday the 13th at the same time) is what allowed more Star Trek movies to be made for as long as they were.

 

[JeffZero]

True, but even then, Jedi & Ghostbusters are triple its budget. ALIENS is almost double.

Paramount getting 7x return on investment with Khan (along with the money they were making on Friday the 13th at the same time) is what allowed more Star Trek movies to be made for as long as they were.

And, yeah, as I said upthread, the first one was double TWOK's budget. It really was a substantial drop in willingness to commit the coin; it'd be like if, after ST09's $150 million pricetag, Into Darkness was $75 million. Instead of the $190 million they threw at it.

(OK, not exactly like that because everything has changed in the realm of movies, but let's say more like a drop to around $100 million. It'd still be quite the message.)

 

[Bobby Roberts]

What is it about the 2nd weekend of January that beats the box-office the fuck up so badly?
And what is it about the 3rd weekend that causes it to bounce back?

Are people just generally depressed or something at the fact they've been back at work/school for a full week that they decide to just stay inside and curl up with their pets or something?

 

[Matt_]

Big American blockbusters tend to make only $10-15m in India, right?

Even less
Not sure how accurate this list is but the highest grossing Hollywood film there is Furious 7 with $24M, just narrowly beating out Avatar

Titanic is 10th with $12m

 

[TyrantII]

Thanks I'm in china. Will post some pics of the experience. Not sure if this is true iMax or not but maybe. Which scene is it?

Escape from Jakku. You'll see the aspect ratio change

 

[BumRush]

Even less
Not sure how accurate this list is but the highest grossing Hollywood film there is Furious 7 with $24M, just narrowly beating out Avatar

Titanic is 10th with $12m

Thanks for that. I think the floor is probably $8-10m which isn't a significant number in the quest for #2

 

[kswiston]

What is it about the 2nd weekend of January that beats the box-office the fuck up so badly?
And what is it about the 3rd weekend that causes it to bounce back?

Are people just generally depressed or something at the fact they've been back at work/school for a full week that they decide to just stay inside and curl up with their pets or something?

Friday is a day off for students. I think some people spend their holidays seeing films. Then it is back to real life as you said. Star Wars' hold is not good though. Even for this weekend.

I wonder if those crazy grosses over the holiday are catching up with it. People avoiding first week madness have generally had a chance to the see the film by now.

 

[Shepard]

It's fascinating to see an almost 20 years old movie hanging in the 2nd spot against all these blockbusters. Titanic was out of this world.

 

[Matt_]

Thanks for that. I think the floor is probably $8-10m which isn't a significant number in the quest for #2

May not even make that
It opened on the 25th and BOM has the gross there as of the 7th this month at $4.1M

 

[BumRush]

May not even make that
It opened on the 25th and BOM has the gross there as of the 7th this month at $4.1M

Oh my bad. I thought it JUST opened.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

And, yeah, as I said upthread, the first one was double TWOK's budget. It really was a substantial drop in willingness to commit the coin; it'd be like if, after ST09's $150 million pricetag, Into Darkness was $75 million. Instead of the $190 million they threw at it.

(OK, not exactly like that because everything has changed in the realm of movies, but let's say more like a drop to around $100 million. It'd still be quite the message.)

The first Star Trek was quadruple the budget of Khan. $11mm to $45mm.

 

[igordennis]

Seems like the end of winter holidays hit Star Wars pretty hard. Rip $1b dream i guess.

 

[Window]

I can confirm hype for SW in India was mostly non-existent. It opened against 2 major local releases. Hollywood studios have opted to partnering in producing domestic films rather than focus on their own films as a means of penetrating that market I think.

 

[BumRush]

Even if star wars doesn't achieve $1b domestic or #2 ww, it's been an incredible run. Disney seems set up for MASSIVE success with the IP for years to come. Well done Iger.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Friday is a day off for students. I think some people spend their holidays seeing films. Then it is back to real life as you said. Star Wars' hold is not good though. Even for this weekend.

Nah, it's not a great drop at all. But next weekend tends to see a bit of a bounce-back (I guess due to MLK day maybe?)

Wait, in my area nobody got yesterday off for school. My bus to work was crowded with the same pile of yammering teenagers it always is during the school days. What was supposed to have made my commute way lighter?

 

[Penguin]

How is Ride Along 2 tracking?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I haven't heard, but the first one made 41 mil it's opening weekend.

 

[John Dunbar]

Even if star wars doesn't achieve $1b domestic or #2 ww, it's been an incredible run. Disney seems set up for MASSIVE success with the IP for years to come. Well done Iger.

if it ends around 950 million, disney will probably limp that motherfucker over a billion with a re-release if nothing else just to have the first movie to do that. people get obsessed with big round numbers.

 

[Kagari]

It's fascinating to see an almost 20 years old movie hanging in the 2nd spot against all these blockbusters. Titanic was out of this world.

Time to put it back in theaters next year.

 

[duckroll]

Yes, I agree the market is growing, but 2016 doesn't seem to have as many mega-hits as 2015. Captain America and Batman v Superman have potential, maybe X Men--I don't know if there are 7 mega Hollywood hits in 2016.

Rogue One is this year too. Anyway, I guess we can look at next year's films too. It seems likely that if Rogue One does better than TFA in China, that will increase interest in the next movie too, which would likely push it to have a bigger opening than TFA as well. It just doesn't seem like these numbers will last. I wonder what we'll be looking at in 5 years even. Pretty interesting times.

 

[kswiston]

I haven't heard, but the first one made 41 mil it's opening weekend.

Boxoffice.com still has it at 48m for the 4day.

 

[Ridley327]

For all the pessimism I've had towards The Revenant ever making its budget back, the possibility that Fox found a way to unseat Star Wars for a weekend is just too delicious to not want to will into existence.

 

[Shepard]

Time to put it back in theaters next year.

20 years anniversary VR version. Believe.

 

[Ridley327]

20 years anniversary VR version. Believe.

Boy, that would sure get a lot of males back in the theater.

 

[kswiston]

For all the pessimism I've had towards The Revenant ever making its budget back, the possibility that Fox found a way to unseat Star Wars for a weekend is just too delicious to not want to will into existence.

Leo has pulled this off twice now. The Great Gatsby was way over budget and looked like another flop from Baz, but it ended up doing pretty well for itself.

Hell, Wolf of Wall Street and Django beat expectations domestically and worldwide as well.

 

[Ridley327]

Leo has pulled this off twice now. The Great Gatsby was way over budget and looked like another flop from Baz, but it ended up doing pretty well for itself.

Hell, Wolf of Wall Street and Django beat expectations domestically and worldwide as well.

The dude is a legit superstar. Not even Tom Cruise has that kind of batting average these days. I think the narrative of this possibly finally being Leo's year at the awards is doing a lot to drive awareness of the film, since that's one of those internet memes that actually has some real life basis to it. People just love Leo.

 

[gamz]

For all the pessimism I've had towards The Revenant ever making its budget back, the possibility that Fox found a way to unseat Star Wars for a weekend is just too delicious to not want to will into existence.

I'm not sure if there was any doubt it would make it's budget back. LD films usually always do well WW.

 

[Abounder]

Leo is the king of the world after all. James Cameron chose well

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Boy, that would sure get a lot of males back in the theater.

Actually, I wonder if a large-scale Titanic re-release would skew more male than it originally did. I remember a lot of people in my generation put up such a ridiculous, whiny front about Leo being a "pretty-boy" and complaining about all the "squealing teenage girls" they'd have to put up with to watch the boat breaking in half.

That sort of "ew, girls" bullshit is lessened as of late, I feel.

 

[Lifejumper]

Still hoping for the 2# ww spot. Feels out of reach now tho...

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Well, now you just put your hopes in the unverified, unconfirmed forum rumors of a re-release/re-expansion around Easter, that's all.

 

[Ridley327]

Actually, I wonder if a large-scale Titanic re-release would skew more male than it originally did. I remember a lot of people in my generation put up such a ridiculous, whiny front about Leo being a "pretty-boy" and complaining about all the "squealing teenage girls" they'd have to put up with to watch the boat breaking in half.

That sort of "ew, girls" bullshit is lessened as of late, I feel.

I guess it really never even occurred to me back then that I was supposed to be jealous of Leo. I was really there to accompany my sister, who was ready to throw herself at the screen every time Leo was on, since my parents didn't feel comfortable letting her into a PG-13 film back then (I think I was just turning 14 myself), but I didn't go into it begrudgingly or anything like that.

 

[Exodust]

What is it about the 2nd weekend of January that beats the box-office the fuck up so badly?
And what is it about the 3rd weekend that causes it to bounce back?

Are people just generally depressed or something at the fact they've been back at work/school for a full week that they decide to just stay inside and curl up with their pets or something?

I don't know about you, but after holidays my first few days of responsibility is usually me getting back in the groove of things. When I get home I'm staying home. So it makes sense to me as to why it's usually a slow week.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Star Wars' hold is not good though. Even for this weekend.

I wonder if those crazy grosses over the holiday are catching up with it. People avoiding first week madness have generally had a chance to the see the film by now.

It was a family centric film so in those 2 weeks, people were dragging everyone there to see it. I don't think it ever had a shot at having great legs, based on the nature of it's appeal.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

The dude is a legit superstar. Not even Tom Cruise has that kind of batting average these days. I think the narrative of this possibly finally being Leo's year at the awards is doing a lot to drive awareness of the film, since that's one of those internet memes that actually has some real life basis to it. People just love Leo.

I'm trying to think of another actor that could justify a $135m 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic. I think he's pretty much it.

That or have the director cache of a Tarantino, but even his most expense 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic starred DiCpario, too!

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I guess it really never even occurred to me back then that I was supposed to be jealous of Leo.

It didn't occur to me, either (I was 19) but there were a LOT of insecure dudes who really couldn't deal with the idea that the guy who made True Lies and T2 was actively making a romance film "for giiiirls." They considered it some sort of "pussy-ass" betrayal or something. It was really, really weird. Well, I guess not that weird, considering the interactions I've had within "geek culture" since then, but there was definitely a resentment from young men at the film's success.

I don't know about you, but after holidays my first few days of responsibility is usually me getting back in the groove of things. When I get home I'm staying home. So it makes sense to me as to why it's usually a slow week.

This makes sense, I was just talking to a friend yesterday about that specific thing - forcing myself to get back to the grind and get used to it again because there's not really any break from it for the next 3-4 months.

I'm trying to think of another actor that could justify a $135m 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic.

DiCaprio didn't even do that though. Fox said "here's 60" and it wasn't until Innaritu started stroking like a madman that Fox had to lube him up with more money. I don't think it was ever supposed to be a 135 million 2 1/2 hour movie.

 

[jett]

I'm trying to think of another actor that could justify a $135m 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic. I think he's pretty much it.

That or have the director cache of a Tarantino, but even his most expense 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic starred DiCpario, too!

The Revenant was meant to be a 60M movie. I doubt anyone would've greenlit it at 135M.

 

[CassSept]

It's fascinating to see an almost 20 years old movie hanging in the 2nd spot against all these blockbusters. Titanic was out of this world.

Titanic's numbers were pure insanity. It was the first movie that made over $1 billion and it did that overseas, combined for $1.85 bil worldwide gross. Much like Avatar later on was the first movie to cross $2 bil and it did that without America.

 

[JeffZero]

The first Star Trek was quadruple the budget of Khan. $11mm to $45mm.

...yep, you're not wrong. Damn.

 

[Toa TAK]

It didn't occur to me, either (I was 19) but there were a LOT of insecure dudes who really couldn't deal with the idea that the guy who made True Lies and T2 was actively making a romance film "for giiiirls." They considered it some sort of "pussy-ass" betrayal or something. It was really, really weird. Well, I guess not that weird, considering the interactions I've had within "geek culture" since then, but there was definitely a resentment from young men at the film's success.

Kinda like the resentment people have here for Avatar?

 

[Ridley327]

It didn't occur to me, either (I was 19) but there were a LOT of insecure dudes who really couldn't deal with the idea that the guy who made True Lies and T2 was actively making a romance film "for giiiirls." They considered it some sort of "pussy-ass" betrayal or something. It was really, really weird. Well, I guess not that weird, considering the interactions I've had within "geek culture" since then, but there was definitely a low-level resentment from young men at the film's success.

Wouldn't surprise me if there was some Star Wars zealotry going on there, too, seeing as that was supposed to secure its place in history as the highest-grossing film ever with the SE release, and everybody was so certain that Titanic was going to flop. Even back then, Star Wars fans couldn't stop talking shit about Cameron!

I guess that's just how I was brought up in the theaters. I would see more geriatric films with my grandparents (how many 14-year-olds do you think saw Waking Ned Devine?), and I'd often be the chaperone to my siblings to stuff I was likely to be aged right out of.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Kinda like the resentment people have here for Avatar?

I don't think they're all that comparable - people's resentment, such as it is, for Avatar seems based less in male/female gender politics and more in Cameron's trafficking in tired colonialist story beats, I think (usually stated via Ferngully/Dances With Wolves jokes) Nobody seems to dislike or at the least show uninterest in the film because they're threatened by the idea that girls could like it. Plus, the sort of people who seemed to feel betrayed at the director of True Lies/T2 making a romance with Titanic were all on board for Avatar precisely because it was a big fat sci-fi action/adventure again.

Wouldn't surprise me if there was some Star Wars zealotry going on there, too

Not at all. Star Wars fans started getting kinda shitty around that time. The Prequels amplified it tenfold.

 

[Ridley327]

I'm trying to think of another actor that could justify a $135m 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic. I think he's pretty much it.

That or have the director cache of a Tarantino, but even his most expense 2 and half hour hard R western revenge epic starred DiCpario, too!

Imagine if Gore Verbinski thought about that for The Lone Ranger. Surely, Leo's pull is more than strong enough to counteract the black hole of revenue that is Johnny Depp. Hell, they could have even market it as the What's Eating Gilbert Grape? reunion for the 12 people that care, and that would still be 12 more people than what the actual film got.

 

[kitzkozan]

For all the pessimism I've had towards The Revenant ever making its budget back, the possibility that Fox found a way to unseat Star Wars for a weekend is just too delicious to not want to will into existence.

Leonardo Dicaprio is a fairly consistent draw and he's got his international fanbase which is eager to see his newest performance (although he's got a couple of underwhelming flicks BO wise such as J. Edgar or Revolutionary Road). The recipe of his success is his tendency of working with the most reputed directors on artistic or well received films (Scorcese, Spielberg, Eastwood, Tarantino, Nolan, etc).

 

[gamz]

What would Titanic cost with inflation today? What a helluva roll of the dice by Cameron spending 200M. I'm still one of the rare few that thinks it's Cameron best movie.

 

[kswiston]

People in high school and college were insecure about their girlfriends fawning over Leo. Scorsese has since turned him into an actor that guys like and teenaged girls have long since moved on to other you ger heart throbs. Hence less unfounded Titanic hate.

 

[Exodust]

I still know dudes who can't stand Leo because of Titanic. It's pretty fucking hilarious. Especially considering how you'd think that a lot of those dudes are fans now.

It kinda still shows in Titanic discussions when people get unfair with their criticism. It's not my favorite Cameron flick, but it's a great movie and a testament to film making regardless.

 

[BronsonLee]

I only know Leonardo Dicaprio as the little shit who poured all the booze down the drain in Growing Pains