TV's Fall Lineup Disappoints
Hopes for a Quick Recovery
By REBECCA DANA and SAM SCHECHNER
The first week of the fall TV season brought grim news to network executives hoping for a swift recovery from last year's audience-zapping writers' strike.
Many viewers haven't rushed back to their television sets to watch this year's highly promoted season premieres, preferring to catch the shows on digital video recording devices and online -- or not catch them at all.
An average of 9 million people tuned in to prime-time programs on the top five English-language broadcast networks the night they aired last week, a 4.3% decline from the first week of the 2007 TV season, according to Nielsen Media Research.
General Electric's NBC faced the steepest overall declines, with 16.3% fewer viewers. Older-skewing CBS, a unit of CBS Corp., was down 9.6% among viewers between the ages of 18 and 49. News Corporation's Fox and The CW, a joint venture between CBS Corp. and Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros., were both up over last year, but still ranked Nos. 4 and 5 in viewers among the English-language networks, respectively.
Network executives blame an array of factors for the low ratings, including the increased penetration of DVRs; the availability of broadcast network shows online; the fragmentation of the TV audience; and high interest in the presidential election and the economic crisis, which is drawing viewers away from prime-time programming toward news channels and the Internet.
Moreover, the once widely-trumpeted notion of a September premiere week is becoming ever more anachronistic. "I just don't think the general audience was ready or prepared or aware that broadcast TV was back with new season premieres," said Peter Liguori, chairman of entertainment for Fox Broadcasting Company.
Even the most popular broadcast network shows were vulnerable.
The premier of ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" drew 18.5 million viewers, down 11.7% from its season opener last year, according to Nielsen. CBS's "Survivor" fell 10% from last year, and NBC's "Heroes" was down 28%.
So far, most of this season's most hotly anticipated new shows have drawn disappointing initial ratings as well. NBC's "Knight Rider" remake drew only 7.4 million viewers to its debut last week. Fox's "Fringe," an hourlong drama from "Lost" creator J.J. Abrams, premiered to 9.1 million viewers last month.
The show rose to 13.3 million in its second week, then fell back to 9.4 million in week three.
Executives professed calm, saying the process of luring viewers back to prime-time television may take awhile. This year's Emmy telecast drew its lowest ratings ever, suggesting the networks have a lot of work to do to get people excited about television again.
"As we look forward, it's one week at a time," said Ben Silverman, co-chairman of NBC Entertainment and Universal Media Studios. "We're going to be very patient now and ride out longer-term commitments."
Kelly Kahl, senior executive vice president of CBS prime time, pointed to the prevalence of DVRs as a cause for concern. Twenty-seven percent of people in U.S. television homes have DVR, up from 20% last year, according to Nielsen.
"More people have DVRs now, and when they have them, they like them," Mr. Kahl said. "This isn't something that's going to go away or we can hope to see go away. DVR usage is just a fact of life for us."
The devices have siphoned even more viewers away from appointment television this season, allowing them to record shows and fast-forward through commercials. The first episode of "Fringe," for example, was watched on DVR by 2.2 million people, or one-sixth of its total audience.
"There's always some concern because you never want to see continuous erosion," said Carrie Drinkwater, who runs national broadcast sales for MPG, part of Havas SA. Ms. Drinkwater remains bullish about television, but said that expectations for what constitutes a hit show "are being adjusted."
But the news isn't all bleak. Executives point to high ratings for live events and politically themed news and entertainment programs as evidence that television is still a vibrant medium, capable of drawing the mass audiences advertisers seek.
In 2008, Time Warner Inc.'s CNN is up 58% in prime time among the 25- to 54-year-old viewers advertisers target, with more people watching its 10 p.m. hour than any time in the past decade. Fox News Channel and General Electric's MSNBC have also drawn record audiences to portions of their news coverage this year.
Other live shows have drawn strong ratings, with NFL games lifting NBC to first place on Sunday nights and "Saturday Night Live" attracting about 50% more viewers to the network than it did last season.
