One way to gauge whether or not a game with licensed content is likely to come to BC is to check if it's still being sold digitally. This would imply that the publisher/developer still holds the necessary licenses to keep selling the game, which would reduce one barrier towards a backwards compatible release. Saints Row The Third, which made its way to the BC program today, makes use of licensed content (most notably Kanye West's "Power) and was still being sold digitally. Contrast this with a game like Blur, which while still available in physical format, is unlikely to become backwards compatible due to the digital version having been delisted. The delisting suggests Activision may no longer hold certain licenses related to Blur (cars, music), which presents a big hurdle.
Burnout Revenge is still being sold on XBL. This means that at the very least, EA holds the licenses necessary to sell the game. Of course, licensing is a complicated beast; it's always possible that EA could have only negotiated licenses for certain platforms. That said, the game being sold digitally does bode well for its chances, especially compared to a case like Blur. Additionally, it's also possible for devs to go back and patch out content that that could infringe on lapsed licenses (GTA: San Andreas on Steam).
That's my understanding of it at least, would appreciate any corrections/additional info!