Xbox One will be Number One in Sales

The OP is a brilliant ad for MS. Unfortunately it's also going to be dead wrong. Gamers dopn't care about Kinect or watching live TV on their games console. Gamers are fickle and if the used games fiasco isn't sorted then people will move. Sure there will be people still buying the Xbox One but I think PS4 will dominate. It's a shame for me because I was Xbox this gen and I loved the machine. Myself and many others don't agree on the direction MS is going.
 
Bjoern the Smexy said:
Is this some kind of lucid dream you're having and we're all part of it, OP?

The Xbox One will be #1 in sales at release, maybe one or two weeks after that.
And then sales will drop sharply. My guess is, this thing will sell even worse than the Wii U did and does right now.
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The problem with your post, and the disappointing reality of the OP, is that you are basing your judgement on quality and which machine 'deserves' to do better (based on current understanding). OP is IMO projecting the reality after MS spend hundreds of millions in marketing.
 
bigbaldwolf86 said:
The OP is a brilliant ad for MS. Unfortunately it's also going to be dead wrong. Gamers dopn't care about Kinect or watching live TV on their games console. Gamers are fickle and if the used games fiasco isn't sorted then people will move. Sure there will be people still buying the Xbox One but I think PS4 will dominate. It's a shame for me because I was Xbox this gen and I loved the machine. Myself and many others don't agree on the direction MS is going.
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The type of gamer you're describing doesn't decide generations. That's not to say that they don't have an impact, simply that their impact is moderate at best in comparison to the gamer at large.
 
mrklaw said:
The problem with your post, and the disappointing reality of the OP, is that you are basing your judgement on quality and which machine 'deserves' to do better (based on current understanding). OP is IMO projecting the reality after MS spend hundreds of millions in marketing.
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They finished 3rd the last two times after spending billions. I'm not saying you're wrong this time but it's not something to hang your hat on.
 
open_mouth_ said:
As much as you hate the One right now, chances are you're going to buy one sometime during its lifespan because you are a gamer and it will be tough to resist when all is said and done. Here's five reasons why the One will top the charts:

Kinect 2.0
Kinect 2.0 will be the next Wiimote. The new Dance Central and Kinect Sports will be just the tip of the iceberg. MS knows they need a few more killer apps to start the avalanche effect and that's exactly what they have been working on in the hopes of having the next "Wii Sports" phenomenon on their hands. No other system can provide this type of mass market offering for grandma and little tommy alike.

Power of Dudebro
The biggest franchises out there will be on One. Some of them will be on the PS4, sure, but there's nowhere else where you'll find Halo, COD, Gears, Madden, etc. all on one console. Don't underestimate the dudebros who continue to fuel the yearly installments of COD, etc. and play it on the 360/PS3 instead of playing superior graphical versions on PC. The hardcore may care about FPS and res and such, but dudebro's don't.

Marketing
Wii U already has a flat tire so only the PS4 is in the way from topping the charts. Wii U will rebound a bit, no doubt, and PS4 is formidable, but Microsoft already proved it can maneuver around Sony whenever it needs to to maintain sales momentum whether that comes in the form of advertisements, aggressive price cuts and promos, or marketing deals with publishers. Microsoft has the deeper pockets and it's looking like they may have a price advantage all gen long.

Exclusives
There will be a bunch of One exclusives, moneyhat variety or otherwise. A handful of those will be hard to resist for even the biggest Sony or Nintendo fan so gamers will give in whether they like it or not. There's already been talk of Microsoft opening the wallet for Respawn's game and possibly Dead Rising 3. We know Ryse is coming and sounds like Insomniac and others may have exclusive stuff in the works.

Innovation
Microsoft were big innovators with the 360, whether people want to admit it or not and it's looking like they will keep that trend going. Gamers who think that Sony won't follow suit with the used games restrictions are fooling themselves. The future is here. You will either support it or not (see Steam). Dedicated servers, dynamic achievements, in-game skype and internet feeds, video sharing, cloud enhancements, clean and snappy interface, real-time multitasking/switching, smart TV, etc., etc. Few companies will be able to match the One's online gaming experience, but it will come at a cost, of course.
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Kinect: I think that it could have been part of the 360 renaissance in the US, but I'm not sure that an update version could be a strong tool considering that's it's not brand new. Btw, it seems that Kinect was useful only on the US/UK markets, and I don't think that the Kinect2.0 (that in terms of marketing will be very similar to the actual Kinect) will change the perception in all other European countries or in Japan.

Power of dudebro: I think that the main problem with that point is that all the blockbusters you listed are available also on PS360 and PS4, so I don't think that the dudebro will see them as a real Xone plus. and again: the power of dudebro for the 360 is strong only in US and UK.

Marketing: will be a key to be successfull, let's see how they'll market a more of the same Kinect and a tons of TV services available also trhough other devices (and only in the US at launch) outside the US market

Exclusive: will be important, let's see which kind of exclusives there will be. to soon to judge


Innovation: once again I don't see the great innovation up to now; probably they'll point out something else, because the Kinect is, as it's called, a 2.0 version while the TV services are already available (not instantly) also on the Wii U for example



Overall, I think that up to now the XboxOne doesn't show anythink capable of twist the actual bad performance of the console in all the European markets outside the UK and absolutely in Japan. And the missing markets (as said, Japan and the vast majority of Europe) are markets that can offer a good amount of sales, to counter the probable good sale of the console in the US
 
freddy said:
They finished 3rd the last two times after spending billions. I'm not saying you're wrong this time but it's not something to hang your hat on.
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Yeah that's how businesses work... "oh no we finished 3rd, pack it up guys!".

Microsoft and Nintendo obliterated Sony's marketshare and made the 360 the defacto "gaming" machine in the West.
 
Phonomezer said:
Yeah that's how businesses work... "oh no we finished 3rd, pack it up guys!".

Microsoft and Sony obliterated Sony's marketshare and made the 360 the defacto "gaming" machine in the West.
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Thats not what I said at all. Why are you getting upset over small things?
 
hell naw, no head start, crazy anti-consumer policies and no crazy PS4 pricing ensure it won't have the same advantages as last time. Also, the types of "dudebro" and casual gamers you're talking about aren't the types to support the X-Bone right out of the gate at launch. They usually wait a few years when the price comes down and they experience next-gen first-hand through whatever their gamer friends have.
 
freddy said:
They finished 3rd the last two times after spending billions. I'm not saying you're wrong this time but it's not something to hang your hat on.
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That's a misguided way of looking at things. First of all, the Playstation 3 overtaking the Xbox 360 is not confirmed. Second of all, the Xbox 360 has A) More than tripled its market share with respect to the original Xbox and B) Become a lucrative venture for Microsoft, instead of a constant money pit like the 360 predecessor.

There's a difference between Sony selling 150+ million and Microsoft selling 24 million consoles, as was the case last generation and both Sony and Microsoft selling roughly 80 million consoles this generation. Those are two completely different narratives for both companies.
 
harSon said:
The type of gamer you're describing doesn't decide generations. That's not to say that they don't have an impact, simply that their impact is moderate at best in comparison to the gamer at large.
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I agree but at the same time both consoles are giving gamers a clean slate with neither console being backwards compatible. I think that if a gamers loyalty is going to move one way or another it's going to be now. It all depends on either companies policies and the services they offer and as I said, I was Xbox this gen but I'm tired of having everything behind a paywall when the competition isn't. PS+ gave gamers value where there isn't that same value with Live Gold. Obviously we still have E3 and we need concrete details from both companies on how they will handle next gen but from what I have seen I think the PS4 is going to come out on top. Not because of what Sony is doing but because of what MS is doing.
 
harSon said:
That's a misguided way of looking at things. First of all, the Playstation 3 overtaking the Xbox 360 is not confirmed. Second of all, the Xbox 360 has A) More than tripled its market share with respect to the original Xbox and B) Become a lucrative venture for Microsoft, instead of a constant money pit like the 360 predecessor.

There's a difference between Sony selling 150+ million and Microsoft selling 24 million consoles, as was the case last generation and both Sony and Microsoft selling roughly 80 million consoles this generation. Those are two completely different narratives for both companies.
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I don't think its misguided at all to say throwing money at things does not work in every case, which is all I said and all im saying now. Throwing money at things does not guarantee you 1st place in any industry. I don't see why people are having problems with this simple statement. It's quite possible to finish in first place after throwing money at something but it is no guarantee.
 
why would kinect 2.0 make xbox one the winner btw? there are millions of xbox 360's out there with kinect 1.0 and if it were gonna take over gaming it would have already. it made a big splash when it launched but the hype has died down since then. do you think the 360's being sold these days are because of kinect 1.0 or just the games? yeah 2.0 might be much better than 1.0 but its not anything new.
 
freddy said:
I don't think its misguided at all to say throwing money at things does not work in every case, which is all I said and all im saying now. Throwing money at things does not guarantee you 1st place in any industry. I don't see why people are having problems with this simple statement. It's quite possible to finish in first place after throwing money at something but it is no guarantee.
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You seem to have a tough time understanding business. Read a chapter on marketshare then brand recognition.
 
freddy said:
I don't think its misguided at all to say throwing money at things does not work in every case, which is all I said and all im saying now. Throwing money at things does not guarantee you 1st place in any industry. I don't see why people are having problems with this simple statement. It's quite possible to finish in first place after throwing money at something but it is no guarantee.
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Microsoft doesn't care about being in first place, no company really does. It's a nice talking point but they care about profits, and the Xbox brand is giving them that in spades.
 
open_mouth_ said:
As much as you hate the One right now, chances are you're going to buy one sometime during its lifespan because you are a gamer and it will be tough to resist when all is said and done.
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On a personal level, not likely. The games you list mean little to me, I really couldn't care less about shooters, online gaming, sports, skype and live TV, and I'm done with motion controls. Enjoyed the first couple of years of it on the Wii, but really I think touch screens are a much better fit for gaming, and slot alongside the buttons and sticks a bit more easily. I'm more likely to buy a MS tablet than an Xbox, and even then I'd check out the competition first.

Here's five reasons why the One will top the charts:

Kinect 2.0
Kinect 2.0 will be the next Wiimote. The new Dance Central and Kinect Sports will be just the tip of the iceberg. MS knows they need a few more killer apps to start the avalanche effect and that's exactly what they have been working on in the hopes of having the next "Wii Sports" phenomenon on their hands. No other system can provide this type of mass market offering for grandma and little tommy alike.
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I doubt that very much. Wiimote took off because it turned something people were familiar with- a remote- and said they could now use it to play games with their family rather than that intimidating piece of plastic the gamers in the house use, with its barrier-to-entry of 12 buttons, 2 sticks and a d-pad. Kinect isn't that simple- it's a great idea but not exactly the embodiment of simplicity. Also, while it comes with the console, it's not as integral to it as the wiimote- they deliberately haven't demanded developers give up on the traditional controller, so I can see it still being a peripheral selling point, not the main focus. Quite right too IMO.

Power of Dudebro
The biggest franchises out there will be on One. Some of them will be on the PS4, sure, but there's nowhere else where you'll find Halo, COD, Gears, Madden, etc. all on one console. Don't underestimate the dudebros who continue to fuel the yearly installments of COD, etc. and play it on the 360/PS3 instead of playing superior graphical versions on PC
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You're making some big assumptions there. Sony exclusives like GT also sell machines, not everyone is into shooters, and nobody outside North America gives a crap about American football. Let's wait and see what the exclusives are likely to be, because CoD and Fifa aren't likely to be on the list. Gears isn't really 'one of the biggest franchises out there' either. It's very, very popular, but isnt it way down the list behind a pile of third-party games and Nintendo and Sony exclusives in terms of average sales per title?

I think Xbox One has a fair chance of eventually topping the charts in NA, as most people don't agonise over these details like us, but early adopters do, so I'm not so sure about this winter. As for globally, at the moment I think it's going to get slaughtered.

They have put a lot of focus on the US- what they really, really need to worry about is the UK- it's the only fraction of a market outside the US that preferred their last product, and if they can't put a similar localised media package together for a market with strong cultural ties, similar tastes and a shared language, they don't stand a chance anywhere else in Europe.
 
yodathesoda said:
You seem to have a tough time understanding business. Read a chapter on marketshare then brand recognition.
Click to expand...

Why don't you tell me the part where it says throwing money at something guarantees you first place instead of trying to discredit me with that broad stroke of yours.
 
harSon said:
Microsoft doesn't care about being in first place, no company really does. It's a nice talking point but they care about profits, and the Xbox brand is giving them that in spades.
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Yep, that part I agree with. It's a nice bullet point to have and all companies would like to be in that position but ultimately it doesn't matter as much as people think.
 
PS4 doesn't have to win in the US to win next-gen, as long as it keeps it close enough in the US it'll win imo. And I do have Xbone winning the US, but worldwide I have NO doubt the PS4 will do better.
 
freddy said:
Why don't you tell me the part where it says throwing money at something guarantees you first place instead of trying to discredit me with that broad stroke of yours.
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I don't even know what you're trying to prove. Microsoft threw money into building the XBOX brand which resulting in massive increases in marketshare from Sony as well as eventually becoming profitable. A big part of business is spending money to make money and Microsoft has been extremely successful with XBOX and has taken a large chunk out of Sony's near monopoly in the PS2 era while establishing the brand going forward making it the brand to beat in NA.

Understand?
 
yodathesoda said:
I don't even know what you're trying to prove. Microsoft threw money into building the XBOX brand which resulting in massive increases in marketshare from Sony as well as eventually becoming profitable. A big part of business is spending money to make money and Microsoft has been extremely successful with XBOX and has taken a large chunk out of Sony's near monopoly in the PS2 era while establishing the brand going forward making it the brand to beat in NA.

Understand?
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This is how you post.
 
yodathesoda said:
I don't even know what you're trying to prove. Microsoft threw money into building the XBOX brand which resulting in massive increases in marketshare from Sony as well as eventually becoming profitable. A big part of business is spending money to make money and Microsoft has been extremely successful with XBOX and has taken a large chunk out of Sony's near monopoly in the PS2 era while establishing the brand going forward making it the brand to beat in NA.

Understand?
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I'm not trying to prove anything. I made a simple statement that it looks like you didn't agree with because you like Microsoft, so you're trying to discredit me any way you can. I agree with what you said above by the way. All I said was throwing money doesn't guarantee you first place. Calm down and think it through.
 
Krilekk said:
GAF predicted:

Wii would be the biggest bomba ever
Nobody would buy a Kinect
Wii U would be a success
...
Now X1 looks like the worst thing ever. So yes, it probably will be a success.
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It IS kind of a crapshot, but I think you can generally try and look at two things: is there something about it unappealing to people like those on GAF, and if there is anything appealing to it to the mainstream. I'm not really sure there IS much that's appealing to the mainstream here beyond the usual console stuff that ISN'T emphasized much, Wii and Kinect were both major new ways to control games that got well marketed, but there's been several attempts at connecting to TVs and who knows how many cable boxes are still HDMI-less ones that wouldn't work with this anyway?
 
People don't seem to realize that with a new console, you're starting with a fresh clean slate for the most part. Most people don't have ridiculous brand loyalties to consoles. PS2's success didn't make the PS3 a success. Sony had to work reeeaallly hard to get the PS3 out of the gutter and where it is today. By the OP's logic, the Wii U should be selling really well.

If Microsoft continues to royally fuck up, the Xbone won't sell the most systems. Everyone I know who's semi-familiar with both systems was extremely disappointed with what MS is offering. There are all these negative buzz words surrounding it that even the "CoD bros" understand. Like blocking used games, Kinect required, etc.

Keep in mind that despite Microsoft's partnership with Activision, CoD still sells millions of units on PS3. I don't think very many people are duped into thinking Xbox is the only place you can play it. And with the PS4 being more powerful, will timed-exclusive DLC keep people from buying the superior version of the game?

So basically, no. And if it does, it won't be because of the "bros."
 
This is absolute bullshit. Killzone and Infamous will win over the masses just as they always have. Microsoft should pretty much start filling out the bankruptcy papers right now.
 
Maybe the stuff in the OP is enough to make it #1 in the US. I can see that happening. But is it enough to make up for completely missing out on one region and doing much worse than your competitor in another?
 
It may be that way, and yet if it ends up happening I'll bet all I have that the software tie ratio will be lower than on other consoles with all the non gaming features pushed so heavily ... which could have consequences in the long run.


On a personal note buying a Xbox 360 because my PC was getting a bit weak is what I consider my biggest mistake this gen, and with what we know now there is no way in hell I'll EVER buy a Xone.
 
I agree, the mass market appeal will be heavily in MS favour. If their exclusive lineup is what they are touting it to be, a lot of heads may turn. But I agree with a lot of people here that MS need to revise some of their policies and make things more consumer friendly.

Then again the gaming community is quite sensitive, I've noticed we tend to shit on practically anything regardless of company brand if we get so much as a hint of foul play. What I don't get is how Steam does the exact same thing, and they're praised to kingdom come. Yet it's already been stipulated that reselling is happening, and online requirements aren't strict at all, 24 hours is really easy to maintain even on dial up for fucks sake. Almost nothing is concrete yet, we're still riding on speculation or someone else' misinformation.
 
Ushae said:
I agree, the mass market appeal will be heavily in MS favour. If their exclusive lineup is what they are touting it to be, a lot of heads may turn. But I agree with a lot of people here that MS need to revise some of their policies and make things more consumer friendly.
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It'll be heavily in their favour in the US only, we'd need to see the UK/France/Germany packages to make a call on Europe.

It depends on if they have any interest at all in Europe, as it will be a shedload of work setting up media partnerships and individual packages for each country. Even in the UK, forget cable, forget American sports. If you want a similar deal, it means partnering with sky to get football. That won't be cheap or easy. It'll be a different setup for each country, and even then I'm not sure Kinect is as big a selling point here as they think it is. Trade-ins are big business here and we are in recession, so it might come down to which system makes it cheaper to keep playing the latest games.
 
I agree op, anyone telling themselves otherwise is blind. The amount of buzz i have seen from the public and people i know that meager xbox one showing surpasses all the talk for ps4. Microsoft knows how to market and their reveal was meant to cover the broadest strokes possible, fifa, cod, etc. you guys also underestimate the new kinect because of terrible experiences with the original, think of this as how kinect should have been originally. Microsoft is in the same position sony was after the ps2, they have all the mindshare, the difference is that they are not stupid or arrogant enough to squander it.
EDIT: $20 bet that a year from now xbone will have the most sales compared to ps4, quote me on it.
EDIT2: i meant for the us.
 
solarus said:
I agree op, anyone telling themselves otherwise is blind. The amount of buzz i have seen from the public and people i know that meager xbox one showing surpasses all the talk for ps4. Microsoft knows how to market and their reveal was meant to cover the broadest strokes possible, fifa, cod, etc. you guys also underestimate the new kinect because of terrible experiences with the original, think of this as how kinect should have been originally. Microsoft is in the same position sony was after the ps2, they have all the mindshare, the difference is that they are not stupid or arrogant enough to squander it.
EDIT: $20 bet that a year from now xbone will have the most sales compared to ps4, quote me on it.
Click to expand...

Ill take that.. World wide that is.. No chance in hell of Xbox beating ps4 WW sales
 
redcrayon said:
It'll be heavily in their favour in the US only, we'd need to see the UK/France/Germany packages to make a call on Europe.

It depends on if they have any interest at all in Europe, as it will be a shedload of work setting up media partnerships and individual packages for each country. Even in the UK, forget cable, forget American sports. If you want a similar deal, it means partnering with sky to get football. That won't be cheap or easy. It'll be a different setup for each country, and even then I'm not sure Kinect is as big a selling point here as they think it is. Trade-ins are big business here and we are in recession, so it might come down to which system makes it cheaper to keep playing the latest games.
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I think if anything there may be more negativity towards the Xbox One outside of the US because of how the console was pitched. There's no denying that it was heavily pushed towards the US market and didn't need to be. The world was watching but it only seemed relevant for one region.
 
In the US, UK and maybe AUS I think the Xbox brand still is strong so that'll carry forward.

Other parts of Europe will probably continue to be strong for Sony. I guess same as last gen but there won't be a large gap in sales between the two.
 
bigbaldwolf86 said:
I think if anything there may be more negativity towards the Xbox One outside of the US because of how the console was pitched. There's no denying that it was heavily pushed towards the US market and didn't need to be. The world was watching but it only seemed relevant for one region.
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Yeah, that's why I'm thinking the UK is a key market for them right now- it's their foothold in Europe and all I saw was 'these features aren't relevant to you or won't be available at all'. Seeing how quickly the UK dropped the PS2 for a preference for 360 over Ps3 (and even then not complete dominance), the market is theirs to lose, it's a small one but critical to keep hold of if they want to expand, as it's the easiest for a US company to deal with.
 
Of course, the ONE becomes a lot more palatable if cable and sky offer it as an extra like the TiVO doesn't it. Remains to be seen but I think this is the main method of how The XBOX ONE will eventually get a foothold into homes (UK anyway).

Don't want to fork out for an extra console again? Here, add an extra £10 to your bill on a two year contract and get the new xbox. It does games, it does this, it does this as well and it also does this. It could even go for the OEM market as well (V+ boxes eg.) . Let's face it, the backend of Virgin TV is poor, the new xbox would probably improve a lot of the services. I think TV partnerships will be invaluable to the launch into people's homes for Microsoft.

Think of a seasonal launch - Little Timmy wants to play COD:Ghosts but it's another console. Wait, I can get a new cable box with new services and he can play COD on it, all for an extra £n per month? Sold.

Having had time to digest this now, I believe Microsoft are playing the long game. If they sign a couple of bumper deals with tv platforms they could quite easily see their box in everyone's home (maybe with an OEM stamp - but they won't care about that).
 
Managed to skip Xbox this generation, don't see why I wouldn't manage to do it next gen. I'll admit I was very impressed with the improvement of the kinect tech, but I don't know how that adds up to an appealing gaming experience. Halo and Gears are certainly not reason enough for me to care about Xbox. It may end up being #1 in sales this gen, but I don't think I'll be helping it get there.
 
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