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[SmokyDave]

Fair enough. I would disagree with you, but in order to avoid a list war, I will just leave it at that.

Yeah, I dig that. It's not exactly easy to quantify either way.

It should be as clear as day that there's more to the PS4 and XBone than AAA FPS, just as it's clear there's more to the Wii U than 2D platformers. That's all that really matters.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I think it's fair to say that the Home console market is going through a crash. Both nintendo and MS are not doing anywhere near as good as they planned.

No, it's not fair to say. The Xbox One isn't doing as well as the PS4, but it's still tracking better than nearly any other console ever made. It also has a healthy software attach rate. This is the same argument that people were trying to make before the PS4 and Xbox One were released. Both of those consoles are now doing quite well. The only one that isn't doing well is the Wii U. That's the truth. There's nothing wrong with the console market.

Sony meanwhile are selling lots of machines but not huge amounts of software to go with them and still cannot sell the PSP well overseas.

The PS4 currently has nearly a three game attach rate.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Another report, another missed forecast, another new forecast to miss.

Great effort, I guess.

 

[DrROBschiz]

Everyone realises that the current strategy isn't working, at least as far as the wiiu is concerned. The 3DS on the other hand is doing okay, not great compared to the DS but then again the DS was a monster.
It could be worse but then again it could a shitload better.
I think it's fair to say that the Home console market is going through a crash. Both nintendo and MS are not doing anywhere near as good as they planned. Obviously the two companies are in vastly different positions financially but it still must be concerning. Sony meanwhile are selling lots of machines but not huge amounts of software to go with them and still cannot sell the PSP well overseas.
The obvious culprit in all of this is a the rise of smart phone gaming and the low price of software that goes with it. It has pulled the mind share away from wanting home consoles. In many ways it reminds of the excuse kids used to make in the early 1980's in Europe. We all told our parents that having a home computer would be useful for things like homework etc while all we really want them for was games. Today kids tell their parents they need a smart phone so they can keep in touch with friends an family, all the while they play angry birds.
Will the home console market recover? Probably but it's going to something that captures peoples attention. It needs a machine that really pushes tech again. None of the current consoles do that, they are all machines designed to make money from the off unlike previous generations. It does look like that all three companies do not want to stomach such loses though.

Sony/XBOX are selling huge amounts of software

They are offering a low barrier of entry, great value, compelling incentives, and Modern features while satisfying the demands of its customers/developers

The pressure from smartphones/tablets is very profound and just means that these companies need to be taking them seriously as competitors in the space

 

[Zombie James]

Yup. Ignore Wii spike, and its clear what's the trend for Nintendo home console sales.

Wii -> Wii U has got to be the biggest generational dropoff in history. Absolutely terrible.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

You seriously think that is all that is?

Throw whatever elseyou want in there but the fact that we are going from feb 25 for donkey to May 30th for Mario kart means there is low output.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Maybe that's why 3rd party fail to be successful on Nintendo platforms, we (Nintendo fans) have to high demands on what the quality of the games should be?

I didn't know there was a Nintendo gaming master race thing going on.

 

[jcm]

Iwata wanted a 100 Billion yen profit and got a 23.2 Billion yen loss

.....

Is this real?

yup

Actually no, it's worse than that. He forecast a 100B JPY operating profit and returned a 46.4B JPY operating loss. The 23.2B loss was the net.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Then they need to get some Modern Engineers and Software designers

People who know how to optimize, streamline, and squeeze the most out of their systems

Oh and some Network engineers as well.

Seriously they need MODERN ENGINEERING and DESIGN Talent.

I dont think I could hit this note enough times. The Nintendo games themselves are as great as they have ever been!

The systems we play them on are some of the worst I have seen and the Network infrastructure is a damn hot mess

I forget when it was said, but I don't necessarily think the engineers are not highly talented, as it is. It's the mandate from Nintendo that make things impossible to work around. Prioritizing things like low power consumption and small form factor over power/ease of development is the most detrimental thing about Nintendo hardware. And that's not something that's the fault of the engineers. That blame falls solely on the shoulders of management and Chief architect/designer.

It all ties back into Nintendo clinging to dated philosophies, and refusing to modernize. Sometimes, yes that philosophy is the saving grace of the company, but many other times, their annoyingly obstinate nature is an albatross that has been hanging around the neck of the company for countless years.

Your wishes are not going to simply be achieved by getting new engineers. It would require a complete re-evaluation of some of their core values moving forward. But this is honestly, something many people, Nintendo fans and general gaming enthusiasts alike, have been calling for, for quite some time now.

 

[PdotMichael]

This year Nintendo will give us donkey long, Mario kart, and maybe smash. That's not low output?

Looking at the first party output of Sony and Microsoft. Yes, it's not low.

It's stupid to think a company should be able to release big IP titles monthly.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

Yoshi Yarn
Bayonetta 2
X
Hyrule Warriors

And there will also be some 3rd party titles like Watch Dogs... and umm Watch Dogs, that's it!

X is not releasing this year. Hyrule warriors I doubt will release in America this year. Bayonetta may release this year but Nintendo isn't making that game so I don't count it as their output.

 

[Josh7289]

So 3DS is slowing down too, right?

 

[Mpl90]

...Nintendo just unveiled Pokémon remakes. I suppose this means that Pokémon Z (X2/Y2) is for next year, right?

Spoiler

Possibility of it being released on their next handheld as well, at launch, increasing?

 

[DrROBschiz]

Wii -> Wii U has got to be the biggest generational dropoff in history. Absolutely terrible.

If they never had an intention of competing then they should have made the WiiU a cheap and streamlined HD Nintendo game box without the fluff

I feel like they could have done well to make a 199 box with a simple OS designed solely to deliver the dame great Nintendo games they already made along with decent storage for Virtual console games.

Have cheap Pro controllers and focus on Couch/Party games.

They could seriously kill in the budget space I think. Make the console sleek tiny and effing fast.

 

[March of the Crabs]

Smart move, Nintendo. I was getting some very negative vibes from these results and they were quickly countered with the reveal of Ruby/Sapphire 3DS remakes. Now I am filled with HYPE

 

[qizah]

Unfortunate about the Wii U, but I'm hopeful that Nintendo has something else in store for their upcoming console. Ride out the storm for this one for another 2-3 years.

 

[Kageshinzo]

Maybe that's why 3rd party fail to be successful on Nintendo platforms, we (Nintendo fans) have to high demands on what the quality of the games should be?

No. Otherwise, Yokai Watch wouldn't be successful considering it is almost like Pokemon. A third-party game will be successful regardless of platform as long as people see value in it. If a 3rd party can make an exclusive game specifically for a Nintendo console/device, and it is a good game, even if it won't have that "Nintendo quality", you can bet it will be a success. Another case in point: Bravely Default.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

Looking at the first party output of Sony and Microsoft. Yes, it's not low.

It's stupid to think a company should be able to release big IP titles monthly.

I can't speak for Microsoft because I don't follow them, but Sony atleast had a big 3rd party crutch to lean on. Nintendo doesn't have that.

 

[BGBW]

People will praise its games, because yes they are fun. There is nothing to praise about the hardware or OS experience though. Both are trash compared to the competition.

Do you get to play a little slots game while the shop loads on the other systems?

 

[FTF]

That WiiU forecast number is depressing in more so that it doesn't make me think Nintendo is going to do anything to try and revive the system. Like they are just giving up on the WiiU and are admitting it and like well there's nothing we can do, here's our shitty expectations :/

 

[block tower]

Iwata wanted a 100 Billion yen profit and got a 23.2 Billion yen loss

.....

Is this real?

Actually no, it's worse than that. He forecast a 100B JPY operating profit and returned a 46.4B JPY operating loss. The 23.2B loss was the net.

"please understand.." -Satoru Iwata

 

[DrROBschiz]

I forget when it was said, but I don't necessarily think the engineers are not highly talented, as it is. It's the mandate from Nintendo that make things impossible to work around. Prioritizing things like low power consumption and small form factor over power/ease of development is the most detrimental thing about Nintendo hardware. And that's not something that's the fault of the engineers. That blame falls solely on the shoulders of management and Chief architect/designer.

It all ties back into Nintendo clinging to dated philosophies, and refusing to modernize. Sometimes, yes that philosophy is the saving grace of the company, but many other times, their annoyingly obstinate nature is an albatross that has been hanging around the neck of the company for countless years.

Your wishes are not going to simply be achieved by getting new engineers. It would require a complete re-evaluation of some of their core values moving forward. But this is honestly, something many people, Nintendo fans and general gaming enthusiasts alike, have been calling for, for quite some time now.

You kidding me?

I immediately cite all the amazing talent in the mobile space. The people that squeeze out crazy performance, speed and battery life out of damn near everything

The optimization gurus at XDA Developers could easily make WiiU twice as efficient and sleek as they do consistently with hundreds of devices everyday.

The talent is out there and delivering these compelling and sleek experiences on Smartphones and Tablets. Its a shame that such talent isn't being sought out. They thrive on the limitations you listed

 

[Schnozberry]

Unfortunate about the Wii U, but I'm hopeful that Nintendo has something else in store for their upcoming console. Ride out the storm for this one for another 2-3 years.

Yep, crank out software and try to squeak out a profit.

 

[Metal B]

Maybe that's why 3rd party fail to be successful on Nintendo platforms, we (Nintendo fans) have to high demands on what the quality of the games should be?

No, Nintendo Fans don't have higher demands in quality, they just don't wanna be treated like sheep. Look at EA's output at the launch of the WIiU or the complete output almost all 3rd Party studios on the Wii: Low-quality products, late and worst ports and "test"-games. 3rd Parties have a terrible reputation on Nintendo consoles and therefore those games don't sell. And because those games don't sell, 3rd parties publish low-quality products or no games at all. The few good games from 3rd Parties, which also didn't sell, just went into the cross-fire. A dwindling spiral simply hit bottom with the Wii U.

And it's not like Nintendo didn't try to stop it. They support releases of 3rd Party games and lend there mascot to other companies.

 

[RedSwirl]

I hope they get the foundation right with their next console/handheld/hybrid.

Doesn't matter if the hardware itself doesn't hold up against the competitors, what's important first and foremost is that they deliver on the software side:

Have a well featured, fast working, well thought out UI that is up to todays standards and doesn't lagg behind in any area (e.g. account system, slow as hell in the beginning, online-functionality).
Don't have illogical things like the Wii U Pro Controller working everywhere except the eShop (that is controllable without touch input via gamepad) and not even being supported by all of your games, even if it would make sense.
Get someone who can actually present the game that has to sell the console (Nintendoland was an amazing 5 player experience no one wanted to play because you overexplained the wrong aspects of it).
Minimize consumer confusion as much as possible

Have a well documented infrastructure (in English as well) and a fast working communication with third party and indie devs.

Focus on your strength (local multiplayer is wanted and not offered by most devs anymore, no one has such a huge vault like Nintendo - so pull all stops on the VC and make it appealing for 3rd parties as well) and work on your weaknesses (online, output etc. ).

In one sentence: They lack in every area except games and they have a lot of work in front of them. If they want to stay relevant they have to nail it the next time. No other way about it.

This. I feel like Nintendo's current software library but offered through a better OS and a better account system could be much more competitive in today's market.

Virtual Console alone is a sleeping giant of wasted potential. If I could play my current VC library seamlessly between a console and a handheld I'd probably spend a massive chunk of my gaming time playing VC games. Just think about that shit: Seamlessly playing games like Super Metroid, Chrono Trigger, or Super Mario World between pieces of Nintendo hardware. Now imagine if they actually convinced third parties to support such a system on the level we're seeing from GOG or Steam's classic library. I really hope Nintendo's unified architecture idea makes VC games universal.

 

[Apophis2036]

You were right when you said 100 billion yen

$100 million I meant lol

Maybe that's why 3rd party fail to be successful on Nintendo platforms, we (Nintendo fans) have to high demands on what the quality of the games should be?

I'm as huge a Nintendo fan as the next one but I think it might have more to do with the hardware being a generation behind aswell as the online infrastructure being a decade behind.

Just because all WiiU gets is the yearly CoD and AC, don't go thinking that's all third party games are.

 

[Mysterious]

...Nintendo just unveiled Pokémon remakes. I suppose this means that Pokémon Z (X2/Y2) is for next year, right?

Spoiler

Possibility of it being released on their next handheld as well, at launch, increasing?

Where?

 

[Dragon]

This is a very real circumstance

Wonder what would happen to playstation should the worst happen. Would they be aquired by some other Japanese Giant?

Samsung PS4

Samsung is Korean not Japanese.

 

[Mandoric]

Investments don't pay off immediately after investing in them.

It depends on what they're in. I don't think it's unfair to say that with Wii U projected LTD under 10m after its third fiscal year, any ongoing investment in its marketing and software is a loss. Investment in the 3DS is, at best, treading water. Stock buybacks do nothing to improve the company's performance and lose value as the company continues to underperform. Investments in head-in-the-clouds software development lead to situations like FF13 - 100 guys working for 5 years on an HD title is a lot less efficient than 500 guys working for 1 year. Office space is just a bet on needing a consistent baseline of software development for the next 30-50 years, will pay off gradually over that time, or gradually lose more and more money if Nintendo doesn't need 5,000 dev staff on site in Kyoto at any point.

There's nothing really that it could have been spent on that WILL pay off if they don't get out of this rut, and unless there's a stealth new platform or they somehow beat Apple and Google at the QoL game there's nothing in the expenditures that will lift them up. Which means another couple years of bleed, and a cash hoard at the end of it that can barely sustain one Hail Mary launch.

 

[StevieP]

No, it's not fair to say. The Xbox One isn't doing as well as the PS4, but it's still tracking better than nearly any other console ever made. It also has a healthy software attach rate. This is the same argument that people were trying to make before the PS4 and Xbox One were released. Both of those consoles are now doing quite well. The only one that isn't doing well is the Wii U. That's the truth. There's nothing wrong with the console market.



The PS4 currently has nearly a three game attach rate.

And the Wii u has a nearly 6 attach rate. It's still a dead console. Look the console market isn't crashing like it did in the 80s, but if you don't see a massive contraction happening - across the board - you simply have your head in the sand. Software output and sales paint a picture that should tell you that the very successful ps4 may not even reach the ps3's number. The xbone won't even come close, and the Wii u will struggle to best the dreamcast at this point. All while software is much more expensive to produce and there is much less of it available to sell to an increasingly narrowing demographic. People need to wake up to reality and put away Baghdad bob.

 

[PdotMichael]

I can't speak for Microsoft because I don't follow them, but Sony atleast had a big 3rd party crutch to lean on. Nintendo doesn't have that.

That's exactly the point of my original post.

 

[Graphics Horse]

So 3DS is slowing down too, right?

They expect a slight decrease but I think 12m is still optimistic. 9m might be a better guess unless they have something big up their sleeve. And they might

 

[Schnozberry]

That WiiU forecast number is depressing in more so that it doesn't make me think Nintendo is going to do anything to try and revive the system. Like they are just giving up on the WiiU and are admitting it and like well there's nothing we can do, here's our shitty expectations :/

It doesn't mean that at all. It just means that they know that investors will no longer buy into pie in the sky optimism. Better to beat low expectations than to fall short of unreasonable ones.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

You kidding me?

I immediately cite all the amazing talent in the mobile space. The people that squeeze out crazy performance, speed and battery life out of damn near everything

The optimization gurus at XDA Developers could easily make WiiU twice as efficient and sleek as they do consistently with hundreds of devices everyday.

The talent is out there and delivering these compelling and sleek experiences on Smartphones and Tablets. Its a shame that such talent isn't being sought out. They thrive on the limitations you listed

Woah, easy there. I'm not trying to start something or rebuke you. I was merely offering maybe an alternate perspective. But I guess you raise a good point about the voodoo some mobile devs have been able to achieve. But honestly, those instances (to my knowledge) are few and far between. Yes, Nintendo could technically get better engineers, but I think they would see a much more significant output improvement by altering philosophy (which I will admit is a much harder thing to fix).

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

Nintendo and Wii U are trending on Twitter.

Any publicity, right?

 

[Manmademan]

Finally a sensible post.

It's really not. NINTENDO'S marketshare has vanished into thin air, but this is not new. The Wii's audience completely fell off a cliff between 2010 and 2011.

Microsoft and Sony have been splitting what we all know of as the traditional market, and this market isnt shrinking, just shifting. Instead of a 50/50 worldwide split, MS is taking a hit while Sony is wildly popular in all territories. This is entirely predictable given that MS designed the xbone and it's tv functions with the US solely in mind. EU was an afterthought and JP still doesn't have a launch.

A crash is out of the question entirely, the industry is simply too diverse and robust. Smartphones have devastated the dedicated handheld market as have tablets, and there is a clear linear relationship between smartphone uptake and handheld decline.

But consoles? Totally immune. There is no observable decline here, and we've seen record breaking hardware AND software releases consistently from MS and Sony. Nintendo on the other hand saw an immediate hit from this back in 2010 or so and never really recovered. Their casual audience long since left for tablets, but there is not one single core gamer shelling out full cost for COD, Madden, Fifa, or TLOU that is going to be satisfied with candy crush.

 

[Rösti]

That WiiU forecast number is depressing in more so that it doesn't make me think Nintendo is going to do anything to try and revive the system. Like they are just giving up on the WiiU and are admitting it and like well there's nothing we can do, here's our shitty expectations :/

I expect some very interesting remarks on this in the investor presentation tomorrow. 3.6 million Wii U units for the coming year I find incredibly low, especially considering Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. for Wii U are being released this year, with plenty more titles probably being announced at E3 to boost interest.

Of course, there was this in the report:

Regarding “Wii U,” which still faces a challenging sales situation, Nintendo will focus on efforts that seek to stimulate the platform. By providing software that takes advantage of the “Wii U GamePad,” utilizing its built-in functionality as an NFC reader/writer, and adding “Nintendo DS” Virtual Console titles to the “Wii U” software lineup, Nintendo will seek to enrich the value of the “Wii U GamePad,” the most important differentiator of “Wii U,” and as a result expand the sales of the “Wii U” platform. In terms of compatible software, by positioning “Mario Kart 8,” scheduled to be released globally in May, and “Super Smash Bros. for Wii U,” scheduled to be released this winter, as two main drivers, both of which are titles that a wide range of consumers can enjoy either alone or with other players, Nintendo will seek to supply high quality games on a continuous basis. Moreover, Nintendo will also strive to proactively pursue its digital distribution business through the “Nintendo eShop.”

Will FY 2014 be the Wii U's swan song, or will the mentioned titles and those to be announced at E3 (The Legend of Zelda, NFC, Metroid (?)) reinvigorate the system's performance? Who knows, but the forecasted sales units are indeed worrying.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Jesus, that's the attitude that Nintendo themselves had and which got them into this mess from the N64 onwards.

If you create a platform for a certain type of audience then that is the people you are selling to.

3rd parties don't sell because Nintendo don't have a mainstream audience anymore, that audience is elsewhere on platforms which they know to cater to them.

Nintendo bet the house on a casual audience which was lost just as easily as it was won, and efforts to win back any of the mainstream audience were completely drowned out because they are still a generation behind the curve.

Exactly. The mainstream audience is buying up shooters, racers, sports games, WRPGs WTD on Playstation and Xbox. Nintendo failed to see the market shift to those genres and away from cartoony platformers, jrpgs etc.

Now they're left with just the smaller niche who still play those games and have no real way to recapture the mainstream market as they just don't have strength in the genres that market wants and those gamers are mostly loyally to Sony or MS now.

 

[Tripon]

And the Wii u has a nearly 6 attach rate. It's still a dead console. Look the console market isn't crashing like it did in the 80s, but if you don't see a massive contraction happening - across the board - you simply have your head in the sand. Software output and sales paint a picture that should tell you that the very successful ps4 may not even reach the ps3's number. The xbone won't even come close, and the Wii u will struggle to best the dreamcast at this point. All while software is much more expensive to produce and there is much less of it available to sell to an increasingly narrowing demographic. People need to wake up to reality and put away Baghdad bob.

Yeah, the PS4 growth and large install base is because they stole market share from XB1, not because they're drawing in new customers yet.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

That's exactly the point of my original post.

What I'm saying is Sony can afford to have gaps in their release because of third parties consistent releases. Nintendo is trying to prop up Wii U all on their own. If you were a potential buyer if a game system, are you gonna buy one that has amazing games once every four months then jack shit in between those games, or one with big releases every month?

Nintendo can't afford one big release every 3 to 4 months for a $300 system.

 

[Always-honest]

If that hybrid thing isn't powerfull enough it will still sell shit i think.
People will still want great graphics on their tv.

 

[Salex_]

So what does everyone think Nintendo will do with their console if Mario Kart and Smash Bros don't improve the situation? Continue to make new games for the next few years and release a new console around the same time as Sony/MS?

And how will their next dedicated handheld survive in the rapidly declining market? I think they'll have problems if it isn't a hybrid handheld/smartphone (I would buy this on day 1!).

 

[Popnbake]

Wii U sales figure are way too optimistic. I say they ship 2.5 million.

3DS is sinking is like a rock and there is nothing that is going to stop it.


Nintendo better have a new system ready next year or it is going to get really ugly.

That's too soon for them to switch focus from the Wii U to another console.

Then again I can't see how they are going to support the Wii U for another 2-3 years if this sales trend continues after arguably their biggest games, Smash and Mario Kart.

It's going to be an interesting E3 for them.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

And the Wii u has a nearly 6 attach rate. It's still a dead console. Look the console market isn't crashing like it did in the 80s, but if you don't see a massive contraction happening - across the board - you simply have your head in the sand. Software output and sales paint a picture that should tell you that the very successful ps4 may not even reach the ps3's number. The xbone won't even come close, and the Wii u will struggle to best the dreamcast at this point. All while software is much more expensive to produce and there is much less of it available to sell to an increasingly narrowing demographic. People need to wake up to reality and put away Baghdad bob.

What is telling you that the PS4 won't reach PS3 numbers?

 

[Interceptor]

If that hybrid thing isn't powerfull enough it will still sell shit i think.
People will still want great graphics on their tv.

There is and will be no hybrid thing.

 

[Jirotrom]

Pretty much confirms they're going to let it die. Zelda will be the last game.

I doubt Zelda Musou right. Because I highly doubt they are releasing a main line on this console

 

[J'aime Fils-Aime]

And the Wii u has a nearly 6 attach rate. It's still a dead console. Look the console market isn't crashing like it did in the 80s, but if you don't see a massive contraction happening - across the board - you simply have your head in the sand. Software output and sales paint a picture that should tell you that the very successful ps4 may not even reach the ps3's number. The xbone won't even come close, and the Wii u will struggle to best the dreamcast at this point. All while software is much more expensive to produce and there is much less of it available to sell to an increasingly narrowing demographic. People need to wake up to reality and put away Baghdad bob.

It's a bit premature to predict doom for Sony or even Microsoft. Yes, less consoles overall will be sold this generation, but that's because Wii sold over 100 million while the Wii U may not manage even 10! That's 90 million that people are expecting Sony and Microsoft to compensate for.

I know people want to blame anything, even a market crash, for Nintendo's failures, but we have to accept that Nintendo just straight up blew it. The sooner Nintendo accepts that; the sooner they can move on.

 

[Always-honest]

There is and will be no hybrid thing.

i hope you're right.

 

[Jintor]

Now they're left with just the smaller niche who still play those games and have no real way to recapture the mainstream market as they just don't have strength in the genres that market wants and those gamers are mostly loyally to Sony or MS now.

I don't think mainstream gamers are 'loyal', but rather, they're locked into content ecosystems once they've chosen to make an initial investment.

 

[Interceptor]

i hope you're right.

Why hope? There is official confirmation.