June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 15th. (Extending the deadline out a day, since it seems Wedbush is not putting out NPD predictions currently. :( This still gives me a couple of days to compile the results, then. :) ) Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: June 1-July 5, 2014 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, July 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
XB1 Kinect-less SKU for $400 - June 9 (27 days)

May's Results - thanks to Aquamarine and various angles
SwiftDeath said:
So probably this is final

PS4 ~ 197k
3DS ~ 97k
XB1 ~ 77k
Wii U ~ 61k
360 ~ 57k
PS3 ~ 36k
Click to expand...

May 2013 NPD thread
June 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 40,000
[3DS] 85,000
[PS3] 38,000
[PS4] 170,000
[WIU] 85,000
[XB1] 120,500

I'm not going to remember I did this in an hour, so whatever.
 
This is gonna be a hard month to guess.

[360] 55k
[3DS] 70k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 150k
[WIU] 130k
[XB1] 125k
 
Well here goes, feels futile with the E3 month bringing so many promises. I guess we'll find out if the Kinect-less XB1 sku is truly flying off shelves.

[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 145k
[WIU] 90k
[PS3] 30k
[360] 50k
[3DS] 65k
 
/\/\/\

This is why you use the format from the OP and do not just copy someone else's existing format, assuming they did it correctly. :P

Edit:
Thanks, Arc!
 
[360] 61K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 38K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 155K

---------
Change log (where I can kick myself if my older numbers are closer):
{6-July 7:17 PM} PS4 205K -> 220K, 3DS 105K -> 110K
 
I'll post this on the first page of the thread. Abdiel's Best Buy Summary for NPD! (Paraphrasing from questions I answered in the other thread)

Anyone assuming PS4 sales should be lower than last month is crazy. This is a longer month, and we didn't see PS4 sales drop, really. Things stayed pretty consistent from the previous month, some bumps due to E3 announcements... (We saw a bunch of preorders of the White Destiny bundle, but obviously that doesn't pay out until September.)

XB1 numbers got a brief jolt on the release of the Kinectless SKU, and some of the E3 positivity came through with some improvements... but it hasn't been a consistent 'push'. We haven't seen the XB1 overselling the PS4, in any of the districts I checked. Better than it was doing before, but not 'winning'. (Note, the MCC got a lot of preorders, some of the most I've seen for a XB1 game, period, but at least 80-90% of those preordering have had the system since launch.)

Wii U numbers saw boosts from the MK8 bundles, but I don't know how high high the surge will be, because inventory wasn't exactly a constant through the month. We didn't get rapid replenishment in most stores, though we typically sold through the bundles we got (MK8 bundles, that is, the older ones didn't see much jump)


Edit: I also am sad to report that we didn't see much Vita replenishment, either. Which sucks. People are actually asking about it more, or seeing the big demos we still have in some of our stores... That BL2 bundle cleaned house, and they need to give us more. I don't see us having another awesome resurgence, because we didn't have the stock to make it happen... though I doubt it'll be as low as the 3k number that was pre-2k release.
So. There ya go folks. My notes.
 
[PS4] 250k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 120k
[WIU] 99k
[360] 77k
[PS3] 45k

bonus: Vita-25k

will probably change later, and make worse

changelog:
7/7, 12:14 AM: PS3 55k->45k, 3DS 111k->120k, XB1 150k->160k
 
[360] 54k
[3DS] 112k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 218k
[WIU] 102k
[XB1] 175k

------------------

Change log:
Shamelessly copying Randolph Freelander format
{10-July 20:42 PM} PS4 208K -> 218K, XB1 191K -> 175K
 
[360] 75k
[3DS] 140k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 280k
[WIU] 140k
[XB1] 170k

Wii U is a bit high, but I believe in Mario Kart. Nintendo has also been throwing a lot of advertising at the kids, marketing the 2DS/3DS as a great summer purchase to play with friends.

Overall, I think kids being out for summer will mean their interest in games will go up. Sales were up last year from May to June, so it might as well continue this year for the new consoles, despite the lack of compelling releases.
 
I'm sorry but I can't believe the amount of people that think the Xbone sales are going to near TRIPLE. I think this NPD is going to be as glorious, if not more, than the month with the heavily price cut TF bundle.
 
SDCowboy said:
I'm sorry but I can't believe the amount of people that think the Xbone sales are going to near TRIPLE.
Click to expand...

Okay dude, we get it. You think PS4 will do better. Let people predict what they think. No need to act surprise everytime. Keep this a prediction thread only.
 
Grimløck;119698679 said:
i think the $399 kinect-less sku is going to considerably bump sales for the bone.
Click to expand...

Going by the rankings on Amazon (yes I'm going by Amazon), I really don't. The $399 Bone was ranked 49th to the PS4s 8.
 
BeforeU said:
Okay dude, we get it. You think PS4 will do better. Let people predict what they think. No need to act surprise everytime. Keep this a prediction thread only.
Click to expand...

Dude, these threads are about discussing the predictions as much as they are about making them. That's the fun of them. Call off your dogs, bro.
 
donny2112 said:
NPD Coverage: June 1-July 5, 2014 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
Click to expand...

Abdiel said:
Anyone assuming PS4 sales should be lower than last month is crazy.
Click to expand...

There's only one time* a system sold more in May than in June:

Wii May 2008: 675k
Wii June 2008: 667k

(*since 2001, not including dead/dying systems. =P)

And that is most likely more of a result of the still insufficient Wii stock at the time.

Now, the only system that has a stock problem is the Vita. Other than it, all systems should sell more in June than in May.
 
Road said:
There's only one time* a system sold less in May than June was:

Wii May 2008: 675k
Wii June 2008: 667k

(*since 2001, not including dead/dying systems. =P)

And that is most likely more of a result of the still insufficient Wii stock at the time.

Now, the only system that has a stock problem is the Vita. Other than it, all systems should sell more in June than in May.
Click to expand...

I thought I stated that pretty plainly, but... I don't make my statements under preference of one system over the other. I like my PS4, but I just add my notes to offer insider perspective. Cheers Road, for doubling up my anecdote with some more facts.
 
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