July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th

Just for reference, last June The Last of Us combined software SKUs launched very close to 1 million.


So:

June 2013 (launch) - Very close to 1 million
July 2013 - 170K


It'll be interesting to see how The Last of Us: Remastered compares to the original.
 
Just for reference, last June The Last of Us combined software SKUs launched very close to 1 million.


So:

June 2013 (launch) - Very close to 1 million
July 2013 - 170K


It'll be interesting to see how The Last of Us: Remastered compares to the original.

My bet 600-700K.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Dont know if the site is allowed but insiderp has TLOUR selling 1.5M copies in 24 hours. They have been pretty spot on with PS4 hardware numbers.

edit: I think TLOU is a legit system seller but I don't think we'll see the results until August NPD. On amazon, the PS4 is back all the way up to #4 right now. It's insane how this thing is selling.
 

plainr_

Member
This is exciting. I actually made an effort to come up with my numbers this time around so I'm eager to see how close I get. Last NPD, I copy-and-pasted someones prediction and adjusted it with random numbers. ha.
 

Chobel

Member
Just for reference, last June The Last of Us combined software SKUs launched very close to 1 million.


So:

June 2013 (launch) - Very close to 1 million
July 2013 - 170K


It'll be interesting to see how The Last of Us: Remastered compares to the original.

Around 300K I think
 

Cornbread78

Member
Should be very interesting, my Wal-Mart still sells 5:1 in favor of PS4 over XB1, so I'm wondering if that trend carries over. We also sold out of launch day copies of TLoU, so I'm wondering if we get any kind of number for it...
 
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?
 

Cornbread78

Member
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?



Pretty much to see if a full month of price drop and all the gift card deals at retailers that happened made a difference in sales, as well as the prospect of how well TLoU sold in it's short July window..
 

Into

Member
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?


You are right, the hype isent the same. The only fun scenario would be if the Wii U somehow just barely outsold the XB1, if MK8 caught fire, and XB1 lost some steam. No way that happens, but at least that would be fun
 

Welfare

Member
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?

I guess I'm looking forward to seeing what the One's weekly average will be.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?

The XBO trajectory is going to be interesting. Last month, the price cut/new SKU basically got them back to the weekly sales rate they had prior to the price cut announcement. I'm interested to see if they sustain or build on it (relative to seasonality), or if sales droop again. Could be a rough place to be in going into the holidays.
 
The hype is not as high as it usually is. Maybe because we already know Sony hit 10 million worldwide.

What are you guys looking forward to? Seeing if the Xbox One price drop had a significant impact?

We have yet to see a true month of XB1 sales with the kinectless SKU that is not being affected by some temporary effect. The KL SKU was announced on May 13th with more than two weeks left in the May NPD tracking period which in my mind likely led anyone who desired a XB1 but had no interest in kinect to wait until June 9th when it was available and purchase it then. This effect would explain why XB1 sales in May were 77k which is incredibly low thus suggesting that June XB1 sales were likely artificially inflated by consumers who would've purchased it in May holding off to June

July will be the first month we get to see the true XB1 baseline more or less

I'm also intrigued by TLOUR sales and what PS4 sales are due to the 10M announcement. I get the feeling that the US|WW sales ratio has dropped from around 37% in April of this year to ~31% as of August. That's a very significant change of pace
 

Ty4on

Member
The XBO trajectory is going to be interesting. Last month, the price cut/new SKU basically got them back to the weekly sales rate they had prior to the price cut announcement. I'm interested to see if they sustain or build on it (relative to seasonality), or if sales droop again. Could be a rough place to be in going into the holidays.

I believe we already know it didn't do much. Most of April was affected by the announcement and most of June was affected by the price drop. Average both and we get the same weekly sales XB1 had before the price drop. To me that makes it clear that most of the boost in June were people delaying their purchase, pent up demand from May.

Average weekly sales in May and June = 30.4K
Average weekly sales in April = 28.75K

5 week months also make sales seem higher. 197k isn't a big increase from 150k.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I believe we already know it didn't do much. Most of April was affected by the announcement and most of June was affected by the price drop. Average both and we get the same weekly sales XB1 had before the price drop. To me that makes it clear that most of the boost in June were people delaying their purchase, pent up demand from May.

Average weekly sales in May and June = 30.4K
Average weekly sales in April = 28.75K

5 week months also make sales seem higher. 197k isn't a big increase from 150k.

Right, that pattern is exactly what I was describing. But data has a way of clarifying or cementing what we think we know. Seeing the June rate revert to ~April was quite revealing last month.
 

Majmun

Member
What if his "reports" are correct? I think we should wait it out.

But if PS4 outsells the X1, then...yeah
 

vin-buc

Member
I think TLOU is a legit system seller but I don't think we'll see the results until August NPD. On amazon, the PS4 is back all the way up to #4 right now. It's insane how this thing is selling. In fact, it looks like both consoles could have a great august with both having two console SKU's in the top 15 right now.

Aren't those Xbox one sku's bundles coming in late October/November though? How indicative is that of a good august/September for xbox.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Aren't those Xbox one sku's bundles coming in late October/November though? How indicative is that of a good august/September for xbox.

Very good point. You're right. Ditched that part of my post, but I still think TLOU is a huge system seller. Not Destiny levels but still considerable.
 

panda-zebra

Member
OK, let's see it.

isthatthetimem3uvw.png
 
Apart from Halo, Gears of War and now Tomb Raider, what else is there in Microsoft's chalkboard?

The list is getting smaller. I wouldn't be surprised if MS keeps buying big third party timed exclusives, but they're must be a limit to how much they can spend without pissing off some investors, right?
 
Apart from Halo, Gears of War and now Tomb Raider, what else is there in Microsoft's chalkboard?

The list is getting smaller. I wouldn't be surprised if MS keeps buying big third party timed exclusives, but they're must be a limit to how much they can spend without pissing off some investors, right?

Sunset overdrive is still on the chalkboard.
 

Cess007

Member
I am new here, and even I know to not mess around NPD threats. Still, honest mistake is honest.

Yeah, i think he learned his lesson when other pointed to him how can you not post that kind of thing without data to back it up.
Anyway, OT, i'm really curious to see how TLoU Remastered performed. But to be honest, i don't think i did more than 600K so far.
 
Apart from Halo, Gears of War and now Tomb Raider, what else is there in Microsoft's chalkboard?

The list is getting smaller. I wouldn't be surprised if MS keeps buying big third party timed exclusives, but they're must be a limit to how much they can spend without pissing off some investors, right?

Phil Spencer said most 3rd party publishers are not interested in doing exclusive deals so I wouldn't expect many more games on the level on Tomb Raider.
 

SDCowboy

Member
Yeah, i think he learned his lesson when other pointed to him how can you not post that kind of thing without data to back it up.
Anyway, OT, i'm really curious to see how TLoU Remastered performed. But to be honest, i don't think i did more than 300K so far.

You don't think TLOUR has sold more than 300k yet?
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
I predict some amazing sales for TLOU:Remastered, maybe even as a system seller.

It was strange seeing my entire Playstation friendslist turn into a huge TLOU lovefest on day of release.
 

Cess007

Member
You don't think TLOUR has sold more than 300k yet?

lol my bad. I meant 600 (damn mobile). Tho i'm just have no idea at all how much it will sell (i suck A LOT at predictions :< ) So, that's why i'm curious; honestly have no idea how much it sold ^^
 
Phil Spencer said most 3rd party publishers are not interested in doing exclusive deals so I wouldn't expect many more games on the level on Tomb Raider.

But what about my second question? It's obvious they have a budget for the Xbox branch, but it just seems to me, that Microsoft spends as much as they want to, in order to "win" as much market share as they can.

They're limited in terms of what the publishers are willing to go along with, not by budget it seems.

I thought that with the apparent dissatisfaction by some investors even before the Xbox One debacle, that they would restrain themselves of just throwing money at the problem, but instead be smarter and look for more long term solutions. i.e. not buying timed exclusivity.
 

ramuh

Member
I predict some amazing sales for TLOU:Remastered, maybe even as a system seller.

It was strange seeing my entire Playstation friendslist turn into a huge TLOU lovefest on day of release.

This is what I want to see as well.
 

SDCowboy

Member
lol my bad. I meant 600 (damn mobile). Tho i'm just have no idea at all how much it will sell (i suck A LOT at predictions :< ) So, that's why i'm curious; honestly have no idea how much it sold ^^

600k still seems incredibly low. I'd be shocked if it hasn't sold over a million by this point.
 

theDeeDubs

Member
Sorry if this has been posted but I've been watching Amazon daily throughout the day (don't hate I find it interesting) and the PS4 has hovered around 5-7 everyday, whereas the XB1 has been in the 30s and 40s mostly since Kinectless. Think it topped at 29 once. Don't see his reports being right or even close unless he means Xbox family. It might retain it's weekly though.
 
Top Bottom