mugurumakensei
Member
It'll be cross-gen if it's on consoles. It would have to sell to 300+% of the current PS4 audience and to 600+% of the PS4 audience to get near what DQ IX sold. Goes without saying that I'm using Japan numbers here.
Are Square delivering a message for Dragon Quest XI ?...
- Thread starter GarciaHotspur
- Start date
It'll be cross-gen if it's on consoles. It would have to sell to 300+% of the current PS4 audience and to 600+% of the PS4 audience to get near what DQ IX sold. Goes without saying that I'm using Japan numbers here.
I think PS4 will be in a much better position in 2016 overall. Next year PS4 is getting a price cut and, all things well, along with the Sony/SE marketing and the PS4/FFXV push, that should help the install base a fair bit and hopefully also sustain better momentum in sales moving forward from that point. There should realistically be a much better stream of steady games targeted at Japan than there is now. It still won't be as good as 3DS of course, but I don't think a mainline DQ on PS4 has to mean that it's only on that platform. It could still come to some other platforms.
If there is a mainline DQ on Playstation though, there's a good chance assistance would be given in bringing it to the West. There's a much easier justification to be made for a franchise like that than many others.
OverturePT
Member
It'll probably be a 3DS game. Handhelds are the only thing that sells decently in Japan (not counting mobiles) and DQ only sells extremely well in Japan anyway.
Horii has said he wants the next DQ on a big screen.
Which is why I'm saying it'll be on 3DS in any given situation, but the option to make it multiplatform is there.
mugurumakensei
Member
I'm completely inclined to think it will be a 3DS, PS3, and PS4 game with the PS4 version being the only release in the west.
As opposed to franchises which target the least popular consoles?
I also have a feeling Nintendo "invested" a bit in DQ last gen...
nckillthegrimace
Member
Sony has sone such a great job aiding in the localization of other PS exclusives like the Yakuza series, so I can't wait to see how they handle a potentially exclusive mainline Dragon Quest game.
For sure, I was just meaning from a point of view that it ends up on consoles only.
Honey Bunny
Member
It's difficult to imagine them making a full budget PS4 title and keeping it in the paltry Japanese PS4 market only. To develop for a ..what..3 million unit market but ignore a 30 million one with localization costs being the only barrier to entry..doesn't seem reasonable.
They won't have the option of PS3 cross-gen to pick up the slack in 2016 either, which is what we're seeing all the third parties do now.
I still think it's more likely to be developed primarily for a Nintendo handheld, all said and done.
They won't have the option of PS3 cross-gen to pick up the slack in 2016 either, which is what we're seeing all the third parties do now.
I still think it's more likely to be developed primarily for a Nintendo handheld, all said and done.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
The Japanese user base is the only one they've gone off of because that's the only region the franchise has been popular aside from Nintendo's marketing in North America.
Sammy Samusu
Member
PS3 never really peaked, which is why it's still going, and Nintendo generations are not 8 years long.
Pennywise83
Banned
Nightengale
Member
I'm surprised they aren't testing the waters with a different IP first... like... Bravely franchise.
It's not an internally developed game, the studio has experience making PS-games, and I'd say it's a good benchmark of a game that's obviously portable in design, but has enough leeway that it could go on the market as a retail console title with some improvements to the assets.
MagiusNecros
Gilgamesh Fan Annoyance
He said the next Dragon Quest. Technically speaking this is the next Dragon Quest game. On consoles. Which generally are on big screens. Therefore a Dragon Quest game of some kind is on a big screen. There you go.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
This.
RE5 is at 1.026 million (japanltdrank)
I expect 3DS and PS4 (perhaps PS3 as well if PS4's situation is not great) for DQ11. Its a weird multipalt release but covers all bases.
Glass Rebel
Member
Yes, Nintendo helped push DQIX in the West. If you think there's some conspiracy behind Square-Enix' decision to develop the game for the DS, look at the number of million sellers on the system in comparison to how many broke that on the PS3.
mugurumakensei
Member
Nah, DQ XI will release on PS4. It just won't be exclusive, and it'll probably be an upport from 3DS though I imagine the lighting engine will be completely different between the two.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
The argument wasn't that they should put on PS4 because of higher userbase, the quote I was responding too said that the next DQ would be more likely to get a US release if it were on Nintendo rather than Sony.
Localizing in the west would strictly be about western userbase, in which the PS4 is leaving the Wii U in the dust.
Why do you think DQ7 hasn't come here yet? Nintendo is probably not interested. Square unfortunately gave up the ghost after DQ5 I think. Despite a lot of muscle behind DQ9, effects didn't carry over to DQ6 so they probably just thought it wasn't worth it.
I think mobile is actually the most likely way it comes to America. Square can just shit out a low effort version and call it a day.
I think mobile is actually the most likely way it comes to America. Square can just shit out a low effort version and call it a day.
Sammy Samusu
Member
DS was basically released in 2005 and stopped selling in 2011.
I'm leaving now, we will see how well 3DS will be selling in 2016, especially worldwide. (if we are talking about DQXI localization)
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I really don't think it would be focused entirely on user base. Probably on the console manufacturer offering to publish and market the title.
Wii U is the only place I see that happening for Dragon Quest games sadly.
metalslimer
Member
Honestly, at this point I think Sony would be willing to offer a far better deal if they were able to get PS4 games, it would be a huge boost in Japan.
Of course I think everyone is crazy if they don't think DQ11 is coming to 3DS and is going to ignore the near 20 million userbase it would have when it launches to launch on PS4 will be under 5 million.
Palette Swap
Member
Given how quickly PS4 grows in the West, it wouldn't be far fetched to imagine a scenario where DQXI ends up on PS4 and as part of the deal Sony helps getting it westward (including marketing).
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
My concern is that your argument is based on a 1st party (Sony, Nintendo) offering to publish/market the game. Nintendo *used* to do that, but Nintendo has not stepped up to localize Dragon Quest X for Wii or Wii U, they've not stepped up for Dragon Quest VII or Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D for 3DS.
I don't think Nintendo is interested in promoting Dragon Quest in the west anymore.
metalslimer
Member
It would still be a port of the 3DS version. Unless Sony miraculously managed to make Dragon Quest as popular as pokemon in the west, the amount of money lost would be ridiculous.
Nightengale
Member
There's a big difference of putting it out on 3ds and making it exclusive to 3ds.
mugurumakensei
Member
Well, we know from previous comments SE intends for DQ to be multiplatform going forward so it's not likely to be exclusive to 3DS. 3DS, PS3, and PS4 is currently the best route to go with DQ.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I think DQXI will be published for the 3DS or New 3DS & Wii U - with a port down the following fiscal year to PS4, it's easy money.
Palette Swap
Member
Oh yeah, I can't imagine a PS4 exclusive.
Hell, even if they made it for PS3, PS4 and Vita, it would probably sell less than on 3DS alone in Japan.
KillerMan91
Member
If it will be on 3DS I really don't see PS3 version happening. They don't need PS3s userbase in Japan if it has huge userbase of 3DS. 3DS would be enough to cater the Japanese audience and then they could have PS4 version as an extra for Japanese and to try sell it in west . Ni no Kuni like situation could make sense (It was on DS and PS3).
I'm still going with the theory that Nintendo has some lock on the mainline DQ series as far as traditional gaming devices are concerned. I'll be very surprised if DQXI ends up on anything other than the 3DS or "New" 3DS. But hell, if they decide to launch on a console, the Wii U makes the most sense to do so. It's the best selling console in the region that matters the most. Not that I think there's any real chance it'll be a console title.
Really interesting to read something like this from a permanent Media Create thread visitor like you. DQ is a very Japanese focused IP and a lot of games don´t even get localized, therefore the focus lies in Japanese market realities. PS4 is currently at 670k units sold in Japan, how much time will it take for 3DSs revision to outsell PS4s lifetime sales? By the end of the year the new 3DS system alone will have doubled PS4s current install base in Japan. Sure it´s nice to want things but there is no doubt which system will be more relevant in 2016 in Japan, independent to SQEX actual decision.
hardcastlemccormick
Banned
My "bold" prediction on DQ11:
There will be a 3DS version. Maybe on the New 3DS. Perhaps this is one of the reasons Nintendo's releasing the new hardware.
If the DQ devs or Square want the game on a console too, or they just want a bigger splash, it will get a PS3 port. The PS3 port would be easier if they use the horsepower of the New 3DS, so it kind of links. And then if Square wants to get a bigger west audience or wants to start planting seeds for their FF/KH audience they'll make a PS4 port on top of that.
There's no way the game stays exclusive to anything other than the 3DS, and even then it will still get a HD port within a year and smartphones within three.
There will be a 3DS version. Maybe on the New 3DS. Perhaps this is one of the reasons Nintendo's releasing the new hardware.
If the DQ devs or Square want the game on a console too, or they just want a bigger splash, it will get a PS3 port. The PS3 port would be easier if they use the horsepower of the New 3DS, so it kind of links. And then if Square wants to get a bigger west audience or wants to start planting seeds for their FF/KH audience they'll make a PS4 port on top of that.
There's no way the game stays exclusive to anything other than the 3DS, and even then it will still get a HD port within a year and smartphones within three.
funkystudent
Member
A HD remaster of the VIII on PS4 (and Vita? lol) would be cool.
But looking back Square did make Final Fantasy Spin offs on the gamecube and Wii but the real games stayed on other systems.
At the least now that the DQ on PS door is open maybe they can put the old games on PSN.
I do agree the logical thing for DQ11 is to be on multipal platforms. Maybe as something that could be on a home console but also have a portable version that was a shrunk down version of it.
But looking back Square did make Final Fantasy Spin offs on the gamecube and Wii but the real games stayed on other systems.
At the least now that the DQ on PS door is open maybe they can put the old games on PSN.
I do agree the logical thing for DQ11 is to be on multipal platforms. Maybe as something that could be on a home console but also have a portable version that was a shrunk down version of it.
3DS has the biggest install base so I would expect the next mainline Dragon Quest on the platform. I'd be surprised if SE made the game New 3DS only as the platform runs into the same issue as the PS4 with the install base being too low.
Is there a reason why Dragon Quest isn't multi platform? Seems Square Enix is leaving money on the table. Surely a Vita port would bring in hundreds of thousands of extra copies sold. I would think this would be worthwhile.
Is there a reason why Dragon Quest isn't multi platform? Seems Square Enix is leaving money on the table. Surely a Vita port would bring in hundreds of thousands of extra copies sold. I would think this would be worthwhile.
TheFLYINGManga_Ka
Member
If they're going back to DQVIII style, I assume SE is developing for either the PS3 or PS4. Obviously it won't be for the Wii U, although the Wii U is selling more than the PS4 in Japan, LoL!
Probably cross-platform is my guess.
I don't care. I just hope it gets localized!
Probably cross-platform is my guess.
I don't care. I just hope it gets localized!
3DS will probably have 20 million plus install base in Japan once DQ XI is ready for release.
Same as the PS2 and the DS did. The 3DS also has most of the Dragon quest spinoffs and remakes. I don't see DQ XI skipping it.
Glass Rebel
Member
The 3DS sales potential is highly diminished compared to the DS but if they were going to release it on a single platform, the 3DS would still be the best choice due to the vastly higher installbase and of course lower development costs.
Bass260
Member
You can't possibly be serious if you're suggesting a "money hat". In 2006 (the same year DQ9 was announced), the DS sold almost as much as the PS3 has currently sold LTD. Seeing as traditionally DQ has gone to the best selling platform, this was business as usual.
I didn't think about this aspect but you might be right. The next game could be PS3/PS4 multi platform. Though 3DS is still the safest bet. Isn't mainline Dragon Quest always released on the most popular platform?
nckillthegrimace
Member
What's stopping them from making a DQVIII-style game on the 3DS?
Not a money hat. But with Nintendo doing the publishing and so much promoting of the franchise during those days, it seemed like they were doing a bit extra to make DQ appear as a Nintendo property, and not just a third party game that happened to be on their platform.
At least that's the only reason I can think of as to why DQ7 never got a PSN release...
KiTA
Member
Or WiiU. WiiU could quite easily do a "Big screen" "DQ8-like" game -- heck, look at DQX.
Or PS3, although... If SE was interested in putting DQ main line games on the PS, where the heck is DQX? That's the one DQ game that we know they're putting on every single platform they can (hell, they even got it on the 3DS and iOS!) but... no Sony. What gives?
Or hey, maybe an unnamed WiiU successor. They did "New 3DS" that is just a minor refresh, Why can't they do "WiiU HD"?
They only did the promoting and publishing stuff in the West. Square Enix doesn't need the help in Japan for that stuff.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Thats definitely what I'm expect now. I think everyone will be happy with that. Also I am certain that if there was a DQ on PS4 it would be localised simply because the reason for putting a DQ game on PS4 would be its install base in the West. The logic is a bit circular but thats the only reason I can think of a PS4 DQ.
You've covered both the console and handheld bases with that.
Sony could try and pay a buttload to get it first on ps4, but Sony doesn't seem to do that. Lol.
I think its pretty much a given that DQ XI will be on the 3DS seeing as how they released so much for it. I could see it also be on PS4, since I doubt DQ will stay as a one platform game.
I think its pretty much a given that DQ XI will be on the 3DS seeing as how they released so much for it. I could see it also be on PS4, since I doubt DQ will stay as a one platform game.