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[sonycowboy]

A number have people have said that the Spring 2006 was simply a proclamation made by Sony to give pause to people from buying the 360 and that they really don't intend to make a Spring 2006 launch in the US. However, I think the spring launch is a admission by Sony that the 360 is going to be a much, much stronger competitor this next generation and that they are not going to let it have a 12 month advantage in the US.

1) I think Sony recognizes that the US & Europe are the battlegrounds this generation, as opposed to Japan. I think US is Xbox's biggest strength and will be where Sony launches first. That is, if they don't also go for a simultaneous release like Microsoft. I think it's much, much easier to pull of in the spring, because you don't have the Christmas deadline, and you will sell a smaller quantity.

2) Look at the games shown @ E3. I think US developers have bigger pockets and have been preparing more for the next generation than Japansese developers. Look at the PS3 titles shown at E3. Much, much more heavily weighted to western developers. And, yes I know that it's a western show and TGS will have a big showing from the Japanese developers, but I think they'll be a little behind western devs, who have the luxury of developing for PC's to help the transition and to use those resources.

My prediction is:

a) Worldwide Simultaneous Release in May 2006 or

b) US Release in May 2006, with other regions within 2-3 months if they can't have the hardware and software ready in sufficient quantity and quality.

 

[Suikoguy]

USA and Japan around the same time

Europe about 1 to 2 years later, give or take a year.

 

[ManaByte]

Japan release in December 05, US release between March-April 06.

 

[Solid]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

 

[Musashi Wins!]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

I believe this news. I also think that if it's 2005 or early 2006 for the US, that I don't want the first iteration of hardware

 

[DarienA]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

IAWTP this is the most common/likely scenario.

 

[mrklaw]

US : March 06 (get in before Easter)
JPN: May 06 (they'll buy it whenever)
EU: October 06.

They have had devkits out probably longer than with PS2 this time round, and have gotten very good at keeping secrets (look at US PSP launch lineup).

Plus they smell blood and want to cut off the head of the monster.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

This is what I'm expecting myself. But I sure do hope that Sony can push out the PS3 around Spring 2006 in NA. That would be awesome.

 

[sol5377]

May '06 Japan
August '06 USA
November '06 Europe

I believe Sony will *try* to launch earlier in all territories but a lack of software and finished hardware will force their hand. If they try a simultaneous US/Japan launch in May, it could be disastrous if they have unit shortages (like PS2 but much worse since X360 will be very competitive) and/or a weak launch lineup (if there's just 360 ports and no big exclusives rdy in time).

 

[VictimOfGrief]

Sony will roll out the PS3 on:

March 15th, 2006 in US and Japan.
Europe will get PS3 on June 14th, 2006.

That's my roadmap.

 

[PhatSaqs]

I'm expecting a JPN/US launch sometime in May. Maybe around or shortly after E3.

 

[sonycowboy]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

I wonder if they'll really want to miss Madden's launch in August 2006? That gives the Xbox360 2 Maddens before the PS3 launches and with a US installed base of likely over 3M, that seems a bit dangerous.

 

[Mrbob]

Sony press conference E3 2006:

"Want a PS3? Well, guess what. It's out, as of now!"

Surprise launch only Toys 'R US will carry the PS3 until September once other stores get them.



I think March/May 2006 is a possibility. Look at how well the PSP sold in March. I don't know why platform providers don't release more systems in spring. Double boost for the year between launch and Xmas.

 

[BigGreenMat]

I wonder if they'll really want to miss Madden's launch in August 2006? That gives the Xbox360 2 Maddens before the PS3 launches and with a US installed base of likely over 3M, that seems a bit dangerous.

By that quote couldn't you turn right around and say it is dangerous for X360 to launch in November given that Madden will be launching in August for Xbox, GC, and PS2?

 

[DarienA]

and/or a weak launch lineup (if there's just 360 ports and no big exclusives rdy in time).

I'm curious... do you honestly think that the PS3 would launch with just 360 ports? What kind of twisted fanboy logic is that?

 

[Elios83]

Japan and USA in Spring 2006
Europe in Falll 2006.

 

[Doom_Bringer]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

I agree with this.

 

[Chittagong]

Considering no sign of devkits:

Japan - August 2006
USA / Europe - November 2006

I still insist that the "Spring 2006" rhetoric is only to get people considering Xbox 360 to think that 'maybe I'll wait for the new PlayStation, it's only a few months difference anyway.'

Then come February 2006 when it's obvious that it won't make Spring window, we will hear that it slips just a little bit, to Autumn. Fantastic screenshots will accompany the news. People will think: 'Well, I already waited for it and it's only a few more months, and besides, games look mindblowing' and will hold until Autumn.

Sony is the master of strategy.

 

[AB 101]

I do not think Sony has to worry about Japan.

Sony needs to get into the US as fast as possible, especially if X360 sales are good.

If they are lackluster, Sony could make a quick change.

Sony certainly would want to beat Nintendo to market in Japan though.


Europe is another matter. Hard to say what Sony will do there. Its all based on X360 sales to that point I guess.

 

[PhatSaqs]

Considering no sign of devkits:

Japan - August 2006
USA / Europe - November 2006

I still insist that the "Spring 2006" rhetoric is only to get people considering Xbox 360 to think that 'maybe I'll wait for the new PlayStation, it's only a few months difference anyway.'

Then come February 2006 when it's obvious that it won't make Spring window, we will hear that it slips just a little bit, to Autumn. Fantastic screenshots will accompany the news. People will think: 'Well, I already waited for it and it's only a few more months, and besides, games look mindblowing' and will hold until Autumn.

Sony is the master of strategy.

Why would they do something like this. Sony has said repeatedly that they do not see MS as a threat.

 

[Elios83]

Considering no sign of devkits:

They have the alpha kit out since the beginning of the year.

 

[Chittagong]

Why would they do something like this. Sony has said repeatedly that they do not see MS as a threat.

Of course they say that. But you can be sure that they are not ignoring the fact is that Microsoft has a very strong gameplan this time around and hardware is close to par. While they don't have the loyal userbase nor the cool brand of PlayStation, but they have moneyhats to compensate.

I mean, remember the rushed slideware announcement of PSP in May 2003, when Nokia was revealing the Ngage? Or the Megaton level PSP Jap price announcement just under Nintendo DS launch? Not to mention Dreamcast... Sony truly knows how to fuck their competitors gameplans unlike anybody else.

 

[sol5377]

I'm curious... do you honestly think that the PS3 would launch with just 360 ports? What kind of twisted fanboy logic is that?

err, not really. What I meant was 360 ports, multiplatform titles, and few "must haves" that aren't available elsewhere. A rushed launch could mean a weak lineup and hardware shortages, which is risky against a strong competitor. That's all I'm saying.

It's certainly possible that Sony can just as well have a solid launch lineup and lots of units available in May/June for USA. We'll see.

 

[3rdman]

LOL at some of the guesses. For those who are thinking March '06 or any kind of simultaneous launch across regions, all I've got to ask is...where are the games? Do you really expect Sony to launch with having showed absolutely nothing at E3? We're less than a year away from March '06 and they have nothing. That very fact makes me think that they are really scared of an early MS launch and they bumped up their schedules accordingly.

My guess would be Japan in June '06, US in Oct. '06, and Europe in Feb. '07

 

[sonycowboy]

By that quote couldn't you turn right around and say it is dangerous for X360 to launch in November given that Madden will be launching in August for Xbox, GC, and PS2?

First, the 360 version will not sell as well as it could have if it were released in August, no question. Over 4M copies of Madden will have been sold before the 360 hits and ~most aren't going to rebuy it.

Second, it's still a signficant upgrade over the current PS2/XBox versions. The PS3 and Xbox360 should be quite comparable and many people will buy the first version available (see first point). So, PS3 Madden 2007 would lose a TON of sales by not making an August launch. Of course, that doesn't hurt EA as they sell it either way. It's whether or not Sony minds the 360 stealing their Madden fans from thier jar (where Madden fans have been since 1999 or so)

 

[sonycowboy]

LOL at some of the guesses. For those who are thinking March '06 or any kind of simultaneous launch across regions, all I've got to ask is...where are the games? Do you really expect Sony to launch with having showed absolutely nothing at E3? We're less than a year away from March '06 and they have nothing. That very fact makes me think that they are really scared of an early MS launch and they bumped up their schedules accordingly.

My guess would be Japan in June '06, US in Oct. '06, and Europe in Feb. '07

Where were the 360 games at in November of 2004? 1 year before the 360 launch. Based off of their E3 showing, not that far along.

EA, Activision, Take-Two, Sega, & Ubisoft are complete multiplatform developers. They could easily have plenty of content ready for Spring 2006 for the PS3.

My point is that, 1 year out, you can't cry "WHERE ARE THE GAMES?". They aren't shown 1 year ahead of time.

 

[3rdman]

Where were the 360 games at in November of 2004? 1 year before the 360 launch. Based off of their E3 showing, not that far along.

EA, Activision, Take-Two, Sega, & Ubisoft are complete multiplatform developers. They could easily have plenty of content ready for Spring 2006 for the PS3.

My point is that, 1 year out, you can't cry "WHERE ARE THE GAMES?". They aren't shown 1 year ahead of time.

E3 is the largest event for the US market and there is no way that they would avoid showing any titles prior to a release in that market before the next E3. If they are going to launch in the US first, why in the world would they show nothing when their launch is (according to some here) less than a year away? Their presence at E3 this year was to try and deflate some of MS's bravado. I expect to see a lot more from them at the TGS, but no way are they launching at the US first. That hoopla is reserved for next year's E3.

 

[jarrod]

JP: March 06
US: September 06
EU: November 06

Thread over. If SCEI couldn't manage a worldwide release for PSP in 2004 like they promised, no way we'll see PS3 do it next spring. Not happening.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Place your bets: Where will the PS3 launch first and when?

i hope they can make good on that Spring 06 release in the US, but my gut says May 06 in Japan, Oct/Nov 06 in North America, and who cares about Europe.

(Make your case)

no.

 

[Go Go Ackman!]

Who gives a fuck? This thread is stupid.

 

[ManaByte]

I wonder if they'll really want to miss Madden's launch in August 2006? That gives the Xbox360 2 Maddens before the PS3 launches and with a US installed base of likely over 3M, that seems a bit dangerous.

Exactly. Sony will not give MS that much of a headstart.

 

[cyberheater]

The UK will be lucky to see it by Xmas of 2006. If it slips then it will be March of 2007.

I'm betting there's going to be a lot of imports...

 

[Kiriku]

Shortage + tradition/arrogance =

Japan march/april/may 2006.

US = late 2006, probably holiday season

Europe = assraped

 

[Marty Chinn]

E3 is the largest event for the US market and there is no way that they would avoid showing any titles prior to a release in that market before the next E3. If they are going to launch in the US first, why in the world would they show nothing when their launch is (according to some here) less than a year away? Their presence at E3 this year was to try and deflate some of MS's bravado. I expect to see a lot more from them at the TGS, but no way are they launching at the US first. That hoopla is reserved for next year's E3.

Ya, I agree. I mean look at the PSP, they showed tons of games at the last E3.... oh wait....

 

[callous]

USA and Japan around the same time

Europe about 1 to 2 years later, give or take a year.

I'm assuming that was a joke.

Anyway, Japan first. Late Q1 or Q2 2006.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

Japan in the Spring 2006. USA and Europe in the Fall of 2006.

 

[Marty Chinn]

We're going to see the first games at TGS, but there will only be a handful of games ready by March 2006. However, it's Japan. They can launch with a handful of titles and get the system out in the public eye and it won't matter. Then they can use the extra time to ramp up production of the system and give US developers more time to get their software done so they can launch in the Fall with a much larger and better looking launch line up of software where the numbers do count in how many titles are released. It only makes sense for it to happen this way.

 

[sly]

USA and Japan around the same time

Europe about 1 to 2 years later, give or take a year.

Do you hate us that much? :lol

 

[DopeyFish]

i'd say march 06 for japan, may 06 for north america and fall for europe. (november)

 

[Amused_To_Death]

Sony will adopt a wait and see plan. If Xbox360 is selling well, they push the release date to early Spring, otherwise they wait until late Summer. They will not miss NCAA and Madden 2007 and the rest of the EA and T2 sports lineup. GTA-Next is also a major factor, especially if they can't lock up an exclusive. My guess is July 2007 in the U.S. and Septemeber 2007 in Europe. They have Japan locked up, they can even launch last in Japan...

 

[Rhindle]

The two principal gating items are software and the optical drive.

On the software side, I think Sony realizes that they can't launch in the U.S. with the kind of launch line-up they had for the PS2. They're going to need at least a couple of marquee titles for launch. Even if they launch with just first-party titles and some third party X360 ports, they won't be there until fall '06. So that is the earliest for a U.S./Euro launch. Japan is a different story -- they can launch there with virtually anything.

On the optical disk side, the unified disc format is unlikely to be available in volume anytime before mid-'06 at the earliest, perhaps significantly later. So the question there is whether they wait for the drive to be available, or go with DVD. And spare me your Blu Ray manifestos -- the split format thing ain't happening.

SO:

1. Spring 2006 Japan, Fall 2006 US/EU if they go with DVD.
2. Fall-Winter 2006 everywhere if they wait for the HD drive.

 

[Brofist]

When has Sony ever launched in the US first, or even close to JP for that matter on anything?

I'd say

JP: March 2006
US: October 2006
EU: December 2006

 

[Pedigree Chum]

When has Sony ever launched in the US first, or even close to JP for that matter on anything?

I'd say

JP: March 2006
US: October 2006
EU: December 2006

Considering how big the US games market has become, I think Sony should launch first here in Spring. Ya can't give MS a whole year alone in this market, if Sony does that they're going to be in for a much tougher fight next-gen.

 

[Jonnyram]

JP: Jun 2006 (39800 yen)
US: Nov 2006 ($350)
PAL: Mar 2007 (500 euros)

 

[Pachinko]

Quite frankly I don't think the system is near finished enough to come out anywhere but japan in 2006 first half. Sony will simply downplay the 360 like they did the dreamcast, pretend it isn't there and wait for the real next gen system , we all know very well how that turned out.

I feel that by the fall TGS we will know the launch date.. for japan. I'm predicting it'll be out right at the end of sony's fiscal year or at the very start of the next, and by the time that fiscal year is done with it'll be available world wide. So if I remember correctly that would peg the systems japanese launch between march 15th and may 31st with an american launch following between september and october and a european luanch inching out november/december. All told I think it'll be a rough year for sony, they'll launch in japan with a million systems and have only 1 million more for the entire year , the Us launch will have 1 million systems to the end of the year and the european launch will have 500,000 to last 6 months, I also predict that the first 5 millions consoles built will have an 80% failure rate, within 18 months the system will die a horrible DRE ridden death just like the PS2 did. I also think the pricewar that happened 3 years in a row at E3 with the current systems won't occur with the 360, ps3 and revolution so fast. The Xbox 360 will launch at a price of 349.99 USD , 50 dollars more then the original xbox and it won't go down in price until the PS3 launches stateside, and even then it'll only drop to 299.99 while sony will likely also launch at 349.99. The revolution I think will be much cheaper , like 199 or even 189 at launch , the catch with it is that you'll have a nintendo subscription service to download old nintendo games for a few bucks a pop or 60-70 dollars a year .

So now that I've ranted and speculated my arse off here is a chart thingy-

Xbox 360 US - American thanksgiving, no later then november 18th 2005, Japan and europe will launch by the end of february World wide hardware allotements totalling 3 milli on in first 6 months, 10 million in first 12 months Price= 349.99 USD , will price match PS3 as it launches in competing territories,, games will cost 10 dollars more then current prices, except for a few which may cost 50

ACtual sales prediction- after 1 year on the market I predict atleast 5 million systems will be sold worldwide. Year 2 I expect it to run neck and neck with PS3 as it will catch up within 18 months of its release.

PS3 Jap- March 15th - May 31st 2006, USA- september/october 2006, Europe - november/december 2006 5 million systems in first 8 months , 10-12 million 12 months after japan launch - 37000 yen , games will cost 8500 yen at launch , 60 in US , system will be atleast 329 USD at launch

Actual Sales prediction- the first 5 million will be sold in those first 8 months the next 6-7 million will likely have a 50% sell through. within 18 months it'll have the same installed base world wide as the 360.

Nintendo - Summer 2006 Japan, fall 2006 US and late 06 early 07 for europe. I predict a launch price of just 200 USD with shipments of 5 million consoles in the first 12 months and atleast 50% of them selling , it'll be like the gamecube but worse for sales, 3rd party support and generally everything but the big N will still make money and there is a small chance that whatever innovation they've got up there sleeve will allow the same folks who bought a DS to buy a home system . Most of the money made will be from nintendo and various 3rd parties having NES , SNES, N64 roms for pay download at a monthly cost. In the long run I think this will allow nintendo to sell more and more systems as time goes on, and cater to a market that's seperate from the SONY VS MS title match while still practically printing their own money.