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[mocoworm]

Xbox and PlayStation Must Change Form to Survive, Twitch Boss Says

The future is set-top boxes, not traditional consoles like the Xbox One or PlayStation 4, Emmett Shear says.

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-and-playstation-must-change-form-to-survive-t/1100-6426095/

This could be last generation of dedicated home consoles like the Xbox One and PlayStation 4, at least in their present form, according to Emmett Shear, the founder of live-streaming site Twitch.

Speaking this week at the Changing Media Summit in London, Shear said 7-10 year hardware lifecycles familiar to home consoles don't make much sense anymore.

"The problem is, the seven-year upgrade lifecycle doesn't work in the face of the two-year upgrade cycles for every other hardware platform," he said, as reported by The Guardian. “It's so intrinsically built into how consoles get manufactured and made and the full business model, that I'd be surprised to see another generation."

Shear is not the first gaming industry figure to make that claim. Video game market research firm EEDAR chief product officer Geoffrey Zatkin also contends that the Xbox One, PlayStation 4, and Wii U generation could be the last for dedicated hardware. Meanwhile, Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada previously predicted that the future of gaming is not dedicated hardware, but rather services.

Shear seems to agree with Harada. He doesn't necessarily think that platform-holders like Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo will exit the hardware business, but instead they would be smart to create new systems that are more in-line with set-top boxes. These would be designed for a variety of uses and live for a relatively shorter period of time before the next upgrade cycle.

"I could imagine a version 1.1 product from both Microsoft and Sony which adds in slightly more speed and slightly more memory very similar to how phones and tablets work today." -- Emmett Shear

"They're going to have to change form," he said. "You can already see this on both Xbox and PlayStation where there's a tighter upgrade loop for both the operating systems and the games. This is the first step toward being able to iterate the hardware platform. I could imagine a version 1.1 product from both Microsoft and Sony which adds in slightly more speed and slightly more memory very similar to how phones and tablets work today. I think it's going to look more like the mobile phone market over time."

Shear isn't dismissing home consoles altogether, however, as he also says that Twitch integration on Xbox One and PS4 has enjoyed "smashing success" so far.

 

[Renekton]

McNealy and Ellison also bet on thin terminals back in the 90s.

What is different this time?

 

[Muzicfreq]

Well sure..... once ISPs stop enforcing data caps and actually get off their ass to improve and when latency is not a problem anymore.... So when I'm long dead

Also this

I'd be inclined to believe him were the consoles sales not as good as they are now.

 

[galvenize]

I'd be inclined to believe him were the consoles sales not as good as they are now.

 

[toddhunter]

Trying to be a set top box, ala the xbox one 1 is the perfect way to position yourself against a huge number of cheap products that do exactly the same thing.

Until streaming takes over, Microsoft and Sony should go the other way, which is to position themselves as raw and powerful gaming devices. The market is still there.

 

[bobbytkc]

Just because you run twitch doesn't mean you actually have any greater insight into the industry. The ps4 is successful precisely because it is not competing with set top boxes. You can buy a 50 dollar android device to do all that already, what really is the point of pushing these features?

Further more, the upgrade cycle has little to do with being a dedicated console. If Sony and Microsoft feels that the market demands it, they can easily make console upgrade cycles once every 2 years, especially with the hardware parts they are using right now.

 

[Joni]

I'll vote with my wallet. it votes against any technological item that doesn't last at least 5 years. A console that is replaced by a stronger model from the same company, not for me.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"The problem is, the seven-year upgrade lifecycle doesn't work in the face of the two-year upgrade cycles for every other hardware platform," he said, as reported by The Guardian. “It's so intrinsically built into how consoles get manufactured and made and the full business model, that I'd be surprised to see another generation."

So...what's the proof that it doesn't work with consoles? One of the things that people like most about consoles is knowing that you can buy one right out the gate and you've got at least five years with it before you need to buy a new console. It's not going to be outdated in the console world until at least then. And the same goes for developers. While they may not like it when console cycles go on as long as they did last gen, having hardware that doesn't change is helpful with development.

 

[Josh7289]

I'd be inclined to believe him were the consoles sales not as good as they are now.

True, but he's also saying that consoles will simply have faster update cycles than in the past, which I could also possibly see happening, but (and I know some people will disagree with me here) since we're already at a point of diminishing returns graphically, I'm not so sure that that will happen either.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Bloody hell, the PS4 is experiencing amazing sales above anything anyone imagined, and the XO, despite shitting the bed before launch, is outselling the 360, yet we're still getting this console gaming is dead bollocks. Fuck me, some people are pig headed.

Gods forbid we entertain the idea that different media and technology can exist side by side perfectly well, or that not everyone is going to want the exact same thing.

Fucking ridiculous.

 

[Mocca-Bear]

I've heard similar statements since the PS2/Xbox/GC days. And after the sales figured blew every analytical prospects out of the water I severely doubt that the future of dedicated consoles in in jeopardy.

 

[TheSlySoul]

Playstation will be fine, Xbox maybe. Next version will probably be a Windows 10 machine.

 

[sirronoh]

*Sigh*

Lots of people with vested interest in this future keep trying to make the rest of us believe that this really is the future.

Please stop.

Sony and Microsoft and Nintendo can keep making dedicated hardware because millions of people keep and will continue to buy into consoles.

 

[Oppo]

hey Twitch Guy

console apps can be updated.

don't see what is so different between a set top box and a console besides one usually omitting an optical drive.

his comment about yearly updates ignores the chief advantage of consoles, which is that they are less of a moving target for games. ios is already awash in older and abandoned software made for devices just a few years old.

 

[Skux]

20+ million sales don't lie.

And the single hardware purchase is precisely the reason why they sell. An upgraded version of a console doesn't make sense if you screw over everyone who bought the first version, and screw over all of the developers who have worked to optimise their games for a single platform.

 

[Muzicfreq]

I've heard similar statements since the PS2/Xbox/GC days. And after the sales figured blew every analytical prospects out of the water I severely doubt that the future of dedicated consoles in in jeopardy.

oh but come on. With PS4 selling better than the PS2 did, for sure the death of consoles.

 

[Lyriell]

If he can predict the future so well, why didn't he see all our personal details would be stolen from his servers...

 

[PelekotansDream]

Towards the end of a seven year cycle games like Halo 4 and The Last Of Us were still impressive looking and surprising us, you don't need a new console every two years leaving developers unable to get the maximum performance out of a system because they don't have the time to get used to it. That will actually slow down progress of games as we essentially just get an endless series of launch titles across all consoles for their entire lifespan.

 

[Manmademan]

Shocking to see someone that high up with such a fundamental misunderstanding of the industry and how it works.

the single target platform is better for developers who can take time to learn the platform, better for sony and microsoft since cost to manufacture drops greatly over time (to a point), and better for gamers since they get better looking and better running games over time with no additional cost.

marginal increases every two years would be worse than doing nothing at all, because like cellphones devs would still be trying to pander to the lowest common denominator.

 

[Monty Mole]

Bloody hell, the PS4 is experiencing amazing sales above anything anyone imagined, and the XO, despite shitting the bed before launch, is outselling the 360, yet we're still getting this console gaming is dead bollocks. Fuck me, some people are pig headed.

Gods forbid we entertain the idea that different media and technology can exist side by side perfectly well, or that not everyone is going to want the exact same thing.

Fucking ridiculous.

PS4+XBO +Wii U is way below PS3+360+Wii with regionally time aligned sales.

It remains a declining market and not one showing overall consistent growth.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I really don't understand why anyone would be interested in a gigantic, heavy, $400 set-top box when you can buy a Chromecast or Apple TV or whatever for a fraction of the price and carry it around in your pocket.

 

[Daffy Duck]

Twitch Must Change Security to Survive, Xbox and PlayStation Boss' Say

Following the recent email I received.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Does the fact that both XBO and PS4 are doing gangbusters mean that the market prefers a 7=year cycle consistent box over a 2-year throwaway terminal cycle?

Food for thought...

 

[Manmademan]

PS4+XBO +Wii U is way below PS3+360+Wii with regionally time aligned sales.

It remains a declining market and not one showing overall consistent growth.

You'll notice that the OP isn't talking about the Wii, because the playstation and xbox weren't targeting that market.

the "playstation" and "xbox" market isn't declining at all.

 

[xX_RiscazZ_Xx]

See, the thing about console gamers is that maybe they're happy to have that stability. You buy a console, and you know that throughout this time, you will be able to play all these games without the needs to upgrade because your system is sluggish. Sometimes it's not about playing every game you own with ultra graphic options on, some people enjoy the games for many other characteristics.

If I wanted to upgrade my gaming system every year, I'd be playing in a computer.

 

[pa22word]

I think there's a lot of people missing the point here.

What's especially surprising is that people are downcrying the dude for saying this when I'm pretty sure both Sony and Microsoft have came out and said that everyone should expect a drastically shorter generation this time around. Given the forward architecture of the systems this time around vs oddball shit like previous gens, I'd be pretty unsurprising to see a fully BC nextbox and PS5 in 2017/18, with maybe one of them offering forward compatibility with new games scaling back to old hardware to test the waters of moving to a set top box like upgrade cycle. By gen after next I think the set top box and dedicated hardware console market will be virtually indistinguishable.

 

[Delusibeta]

Xbox One tried being a set-top box, and look at how well it went for them (before having to u-turn and focus on videogames).

Alternative thread title: Twitch Must Change Security Policies to Survive, Everyone at Gaf Says.

 

[James Hetfield]

I know we get this every generation, but i can see consoles, in their current form, no longer existing at the end of this gen.

A mobile/tablet/console hybrid is bound to happen sooner rather than later. Sticking with Nintendo's philosophy of fun, rather than power, a tablet which could be docked to used as a console at home isn't far fetched.

On the Microsoft and Sony side, the hardware will soon be too expensive to produce. Unless they risk another $599 fiasco. Trying to keep up the horsepower for 4k and Virtual reality (if and when it takes off) is going to cause serious head aches. Both companies have shown this generation, that they don't intend to lose money per console sold (although, Microsoft did and has, by the bucket load).

Seems as microsoft is a software company with a hardware mix, i could see them falling back onto the PC landscape, an area which they need to defend from Steam. It may not look like much now, but steam is fast gaining users and popularity (150m announcement the other month). They could still release the xbox, but final realise their dream of a streaming device that plays games.

Sony, could use their Gaikai and streaming capabilities to focus on partnering with a hardware manufacturer, to stream exclusive games to that companies hardware. Think of steam crossed with alienware x1. One set hardware with one set companies streaming games to it. (Streaming will never take over physical copies, due to bandwidth required, but i mean stream all the OS etc but still have a physical game).

Then if VR takes off like we all hope, it will change the landscape further. Add up how much it will cost to build a console capable of 4k gaming with top draw graphics for Vr..it aint cheap!

just my two pence

 

[geordiemp]

Until someone breaks the laws of physics and manages to transmit data faster than anyone has done so far

OR

There are servers in every town and everyone is on same network LOL...

Then he is forgetting one word, LAG.

Nobody is going to enjoy playing say Bloodborne or Ninja Gaiden type game with a few hundred milliseconds of controller input lag....

Delay controller to box to server, process, new stream comes back.

Eve 3 or 4 frames delay at 30 FPS and most games will be crap, with many here wanting lower input delays not higher..

Streaming will be niche, in that not all games will be good experiences with streaming. Consoles are here to stay.

 

[Manmademan]

I think there's a lot of people missing the point here.

What's especially surprising is that people are downcrying the dude for saying this when I'm pretty sure both Sony and Microsoft have came out and said that everyone should expect a drastically shorter generation this time around. Given the forward architecture of the systems this time around vs oddball shit like previous gens, I'd be pretty unsurprising to see a fully BC nextbox and PS5 in 2017/18, with maybe one of them offering forward compatibility with new games scaling back to old hardware to test the waters of moving to a set top box like upgrade cycle. By gen after next I think the set top box and dedicated hardware console market will be virtually indistinguishable.

shorter? I don't think anybody disputes that. Part of the reason why the last generation was so long was that the PS3 and 360 were fairly expensive boxes to produce. It took 4 years before Sony was making a profit on the PS3 hardware. That's extremely unusual- the PS4 is already there.

Most console generations were closer to 5 year cycles than 7. You're not going to see new boxes every two years like smartphones, ever.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Nah.

Console owners would get turned off with that sort of thing, feeling like they constantly have to upgrade to new HW and Sony and MS in general dont have the resources to continuously pump out HW with upgrades every 2 years. They plan from a very early stage how the next one is going to look, how it will fit into the market and how it works with their OS and marketing.

And that's not even counting dev cycles. It would completely destroy any semblance of making a game that isn't as scattered as using PC configs.

The twitch guy fails to understand that consoles are not anywhere near as accepted as phones. People have media options literally everywhere. A "do everything" type of box under the TV means little these days. Console fit a specific niche, and when you go out of that niche like XB1, your gonna fail.

I expect this gen to go back to being about 6 years for PS4, but no way are the the gens getting shorter than usual

 

[Occam]

No, thank you. The market has spoken: PS4 is not just a success, it's the (second?) most successful home console ever.

 

[Muskieratboi]

Playstation will be fine, Xbox maybe. Next version will probably be a Windows 10 machine.

What do you mean next version?

I think you mean "Next System Update", dude.

 

[Manmademan]

No, thank you. The market has spoken: PS4 is not just a success, it's the (second?) most successful home console ever.

remains to be seen, but it will probably pass the PS1 and the Wii without too much difficulty.

no way it gets anywhere near the PS2, no one is repeating that.

 

[Monty Mole]

You'll notice that the OP isn't talking about the Wii, because the playstation and xbox weren't targeting that market.

the "playstation" and "xbox" market isn't declining at all.

A common misconception. So what about PS2 then? Eyetoy et al?

And what about Knack? LBP? Kinect Sports? Zoo Tycoon? Singstar? Of course they want that market too.

 

[Manmademan]

A common misconception. So what about PS2 then? Eyetoy et al?

And what about Knack? LBP? Kinect Sports? Zoo Tycoon? Singstar? Of course they want that market.

not a misconception at all. The PS2 didn't have it's audience leave 3 years into the generation and all of it's sales collapse.

There has always been a large casual market for the PS1, PS2, and PS3, but Sony for the most part managed to retain them. The ps3 was never chasing the wii sports market. You can argue microsoft tried with Kinect, but it's pretty clear that effort has been abandoned by now.

 

[Dryk]

The mistake is thinking that the short upgrade cycle is consumer driven not manufacturer driven. As long as Sony and Microsoft want a long upgrade cycle people will be more than happy with it.

 

[Delusibeta]

On the Microsoft and Sony side, the hardware will soon be too expensive to produce. Unless they risk another $599 fiasco. Trying to keep up the horsepower for 4k and Virtual reality (if and when it takes off) is going to cause serious head aches. Both companies have shown this generation, that they don't intend to lose money per console sold (although, Microsoft did and has, by the bucket load).

Technology pricing does not work this way. Indeed, both the PS4 and the Xbone managed to be several times more powerful than their predecessors despite containing hardware that's nowhere near the top of the line at launch and is definitely not top of the line now. There is no reason to believe that Microsoft or Sony won't be able to make a 4k ready box for $400 in 2018 or later. (This assumes that game developers want to make 4k resolution games, which is a whole other kettle of fish)

 

[petran79]

so there will be PS4 (1080P, 30fps)
PS4+ (More expensive, 1080P, 60fps) and the flagship model PS4 Infinite (2k, 60fps)

Confusing...

 

[Santar]

Personally I don't think the market wants to exchange their consoles every two years. You never give people a chance to feel they've settled in on a platform if you do that. I honestly don't think people want a playstation 5 in a couple of months.

 

[James Hetfield]

Technology pricing does not work this way. Indeed, both the PS4 and the Xbone managed to be several times more powerful than their predecessors despite containing hardware that's nowhere near the top of the line at launch and is definitely not top of the line now. There is no reason to believe that Microsoft or Sony won't be able to make a 4k ready box for $400 in 2018 or later. (This assumes that game developers want to make 4k resolution games, which is a whole other kettle of fish)

But, the cost of building a rig to run 4k games @60fps is astronomical at the moment, will it really change in 3 years time?

And, without shitting on either system, doesn't the fact that both consoles struggle to do high settings with 1080p@60fps show that, no, trying to keep up while being affordable isn't sustainable or viable for enthusiasts in the future?

PC gaming is making a resurgence. That market is more important for MS and as a side note, would it be possible to build an xbox 3 and an xbox pc. Where one is 'normal' settings and the other is 'ultra' settings, but both play the same exclusives?

 

[Manmademan]

Technology pricing does not work this way. Indeed, both the PS4 and the Xbone managed to be several times more powerful than their predecessors despite containing hardware that's nowhere near the top of the line at launch and is definitely not top of the line now. There is no reason to believe that Microsoft or Sony won't be able to make a 4k ready box for $400 in 2018 or later. (This assumes that game developers want to make 4k resolution games, which is a whole other kettle of fish)

a good point. and despite the fact that there is a very large difference in computing power between a PS3 and a PS4, thanks to diminishing returns the complaint that there wasn't much of an improvement was still there early in the generation.

The assumption that a two year upgrade cycle will see any improvement at all between boxes doesn't really hold up. I can't think of anyone it actually makes sense for.

 

[KKRT00]

He's right and i dont see anything wrong with that.

Hardware must be more generic and must be upgrade-able every 1.5-2 years.
First rendition will be the lowest demonstrator and upgrade every two years or 1.5 year will up the performance of first gen titles and following titles.
After 6 years, they release new architecture, but backward compatible of course, to set new lowest denominator for the industry.

If You dont agree with that, that You have no right to complain about remasters.

 

[Muzicfreq]

He's right and i dont see anything wrong with that.

Hardware must be more generic and must be upgrade-able every 1.5-2 years.
First rendition will be the lowest demonstrator and upgrade every two years or 1.5 year will up the performance of first gen titles and following titles.
After 6 years, they release new architecture, but backward compatible of course, to set new lowest denominator for the industry.

If You dont agree with that, that You have no right to complain about remasters.

What are you even talking about? If we wanted PCs we would buy a PC. We only complain about remasters since
1. They sometimes don't really look any better AT ALL
2. We've already played them and beat them
3. Those devs could use those resources into creating new IPs.

 

[jelly]

No thanks. That's anti console and do people buy a cable box or blu-ray player every 2 years, they do not. Manufacturing and raising the spec only keeps margins low and prices high. Power gets better every year but leaps in tech aren't so quick, there is no need to release a new console in less than 5 years. 8 years was a bit long in the tooth though.

 

[gofreak]

Based on my very anecdotal, and relatively brief, experience in retail, the mass market and obsolescence are like chalk and cheese.

The stability of consoles - i.e. pay once for hardware, enjoy software for years on same - is a key attraction.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Oh, so instead of a console it needs to be a set top box. Whatever the fuck that's supposed the mean.

I like how the Twitch boss is talking about hardware refreshes every couple of years when developers can barely put games out for what we have right now. I guess the future is everyone having ultra powerful systems to run 16-bit looking indie games, and the occasional UBI Soft, EA, or Activision AAA game.

 

[Fermbiz]

Didn't Denise Dyack predict this year's ago?

 

[benny_a]

Oh, so instead of a console it needs to be a set top box. Whatever the fuck that's supposed the mean.

A set-top-box is like the Fire TV by the parent company of Twitch.

Honi soit qui mal y pense

 

[Vincent Grayson]

Based on my very anecdotal, and relatively brief, experience in retail, the mass market and obsolescence are like chalk and cheese.

The stability of consoles - i.e. pay once for hardware, enjoy software for years on same - is a key attraction.

Definitely a big part of the appeal for me, in addition, of course, to the titles which are console exclusive. I game on every type of platform: console, PC, handheld, and mobile. One of the biggest things that appeal about a console (especially as a father) is that I can buy a simple box that (for the most part) just works, and doesn't require me to let my kids near my PC where they could fuck things up. The cost is low compared to building a gaming PC, and unlike PC gaming, where the same hardware is less and less amazing over time, my PS4 will be running better looking and performing games a few years from now while my PC will be struggling like hell with similar titles unless I put more money into it and/or replace it.

I hope consoles never go away, and based on the rate this generation is selling at, I don't think they're likely to anytime soon.