TheKaeptain
Banned
That's going to take so much will power to not watch. I want to see the trailer in front of AoU with my son sitting in between my father and I.
lol
Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens
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That's going to take so much will power to not watch. I want to see the trailer in front of AoU with my son sitting in between my father and I.
lol
It was aimed at kids, lids dont really go to midnight releases.
Oh nice, hoping for a trailer on the 16th then now!
Mushroomer25
Member
Star Wars on both quality and box office. Both will break the standing record for opening weekend hauls - Avengers at $220M, Star Wars at $250M.
lol there is zero chance SW7 has that ow, in Dec no less.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm not sure Star Wars will break a 175-200m opening weekend. Opening Weekends in December are way different than opening weekends in the summer. The fact it's going to have almost zero competition for the next 2-3 months is probably what's going to put it over Avengers domestically - I can see weekend to weekend drops in the20-30% range for the first 3 or 4 weeks, but I can't see Star Wars TRIPLING the current December opening weekend record. (The Hobbit pt. 1, 84 million)
Which means tracking this far out means very little based on early ticket sales.
H.Cornerstone
Member
I think Star Wars will make more by a small amount. I think both will be in the 1.6 billion range.
Too early to say the better movie, but gun to my head, I'll go AOU.
Too early to say the better movie, but gun to my head, I'll go AOU.
Mushroomer25
Member
Honestly, I just don't think there's a comparable analog for Star Wars' December release. It's easily the most anticipated film of the year, hits every demographic, and is coming off the most recognizable film franchise in history. We've never seen anything like it in that month before, so I'm doubtful of past trends.
Even if people don't typically see movies in December, they will see Star Wars. It's a cultural event isolated from existing behavior.
Marion Cobretti
Member
I could be wrong, but if I remember correctly Xmas day is actually very big for movie theatres. When exactly does star wars come out? Xmas or the week before?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
True.
Although there is kinda/sorta a comparison point: Star Wars.
the Special Edition made 35 mil for the weekend of January 31st back in 1997. It was the fifth highest opening weekend that year, and the only opening weekend outside of the summer season to make the top 10, I believe. Ended up making 140 mil domestic that year. A 20 year old re-release made the box-office top 10 for the year.
So yeah, there's some sort of precedent that you can stick Star Wars anywhere and it will make money.
The week before. Meaning it's possible that Star Wars could make MORE money in it's 2nd weekend than its 1st.
It depends. If The Force Awakens is even half-good, it'll probably beat AoU. AoU is going to be a beast, though. Between AoU and Ant-Man, the MCU should beat the all-time combined box office of the Harry Potter series and come within $100,000 or so of tying Star Wars' combined box office. Until December 15th, of course.
Ennosuke
Member
I agree! Star Wars will be huge.
SargerusBR
I love Pokken!
Star Wars. AOU will do great, probably 1 billion or more but Star Wars will destroy box office this year.
But in the end, the big winner here is Disney
But in the end, the big winner here is Disney
My answers/predictions to OP:
1. Star Wars
2. Star Wars
3. Star Wars
4. Yes. Films: Spectre, Jurassic World, Ratchet & Clank. Video games: Star Wars: Battlefront, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed: Victory.
5. Admittedly I have never played a Kingdom Hearts game, but I would say Star Wars.
1. Star Wars
2. Star Wars
3. Star Wars
4. Yes. Films: Spectre, Jurassic World, Ratchet & Clank. Video games: Star Wars: Battlefront, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed: Victory.
5. Admittedly I have never played a Kingdom Hearts game, but I would say Star Wars.
TheKaeptain
Banned
I really believe a lot of people are underestimating the cultural importance of Star Wars.
Domestic yes, but Avengers is big overseas.
I think Avengers will gross more followed closely by Star Wars.
ATastyMuffin
Banned
Just curious, why do people have so much faith in J.J. Abrams?
I'm fairly certain Whedon has a better track record than him, and he's more experienced when it comes to their respective franchise.
I'm fairly certain Whedon has a better track record than him, and he's more experienced when it comes to their respective franchise.
BattleMonkey
Member
Even if it doesn't beat Avengers box office somehow, it will probably still make Disney a shit ton more money simply on the merch boost. Star Wars is all about the merch, the action figures alone have made more money than all the movies combined.
Errr JJ has a proven string of box office hits, Whedon was a TV guy doing niche tv shows, Avengers was his first real hit
Errr JJ has a proven string of box office hits, Whedon was a TV guy doing niche tv shows, Avengers was his first real hit
BattleMonkey
Member
Where do you get this? Star Wars has always been worldwide, even one of the Celebration conventions was held in Japan.
Star Wars. It has the box office to itself until February, and it's about as big as it gets when it comes to movie franchises and global brands.
The last Star Wars came out before the first iPhone was released...prepare for box offices to get shattered as Disney exploits social media and its network of TV channels. For reference it felt like ESPN had a Guardians of the Galaxy commercial in every other break; the Star Wars hype will rival 1999.
The last Star Wars came out before the first iPhone was released...prepare for box offices to get shattered as Disney exploits social media and its network of TV channels. For reference it felt like ESPN had a Guardians of the Galaxy commercial in every other break; the Star Wars hype will rival 1999.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't know that anyone has "so much faith" in JJ Abrams, and I really don't know that Whedon has a better track record either, or what you mean by better track record, really. I mean, even if you wanna pull the television work into the comparison, you could argue Abrams had the more popular shows. Buffy was a cultural touchstone - but it also wasn't that successful (and wasn't even as good a show as Angel was)
So you have
Buffy
Angel
Firefly/Serenity
Dollhouse
The Avengers
Cabin in the Woods (co-wrote/co-directed, although he's uncredited on the co-directing)
Avengers: Age of Ultron
vs.
Felicity
Alias
LOST (although he basically ceased his role in LOST midway through the 2nd season)
Fringe
Mission Impossible III
Star Trek
Super 8
Star Trek Into Darkness
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I want to say Star Wars will win the box office war, but those prequels didn't make as much money as Avengers 1... and Avengers has a massive hype train behind it.
Then again, never count out the millions of Star Wars fans who have been patiently waiting to wipe the prequels taste out of their mouths
I'll say Avengers 2 will be better, Star Wars will make more, and if they both came out today, I would watch Star Wars first.
Then again, never count out the millions of Star Wars fans who have been patiently waiting to wipe the prequels taste out of their mouths
(not me, I didn't think they were that bad)
I'll say Avengers 2 will be better, Star Wars will make more, and if they both came out today, I would watch Star Wars first.
Subpar Spatula
Banned
It's really difficult to say for certain which one will gross more. Avengers is this summer's big movie. Chances of any other summer block buster coming closer to Avengers is super low. Star Wars is given the winter slide so really no competition for a while.
Gun to head I would say Avengers as Star Wars doesn't seem as popular as Avengers in the Asian markets mainly China.
Gun to head I would say Avengers as Star Wars doesn't seem as popular as Avengers in the Asian markets mainly China.
Also, Phantom Menace still managed to make nearly a billion back in 1999 without the major OS market improvement, nor 3d ticket inflation, nor the generally larger price of tickets in general today. It's going to be quite something if they can't grab the hype levels PM had.
I don't doubt that Avengers will give it a hell of a run though, if not take it itself.
Just numbers. Star Wars might do well in Japan, but what The Force Awakens will grab from Japan probably won't be as much as what AoU can grab from China?
TheKaeptain
Banned
What? Star Trek alone is better than most Marvel films. Yes, I am including Avengers as one of the movies it is better than.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't even know how people can be sure one WILL blow the other out of the water. To me its way more likely that its gonna be close, no matter which film wins this particular horse race.
gutter_trash
Banned
Force Awakens
because it doesn't have Jeremy Rennnner
seriously, it's fuckin' Star Wars
because it doesn't have Jeremy Rennnner
seriously, it's fuckin' Star Wars
When was the last time you've seen a Star Wars themed birthday party in the last decade? How many kids do you see dressed up at Yoda or a Jedi at Halloween compared to Captain America or Iron Man?
TheKaeptain
Banned
The only thing that moves more merchandise than Star Wars is Disney Princess.
He was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Actor in The Hurt Locker.
CreepingFear
Member
I didn't give a shit that Spiderman or Spiderman 2 or The Matrix made more money or was more cool/popular than the Prequels and I don't care now about The Avengers being more relevant either. I enjoy both Marvel Franchise and Star Wars. whynotboth.gif But I grew up with Star Wars. It has a special place in my heart. I only care that the new Star Wars makes enough money and is good enough to give us many more Star Wars films to come.
From adults buying it for themselves or for their kids who they want to like Star Wars as much as they did except they don't give a shit because they are too busy playing Minecraft.
You'd be surprised. There are some really zealous Abrams acolytes on this board. As for track record, it's hard to deny Abrams has had a larger pop cultural impact than Whedon when comparing their body of works but in my experience, people are also significantly more critical of Abrams (though Whedon haters like to be pretty loud too). Of course, that's just anecdotal experience but I'd personally take Whedon over Abrams any day of the week. Alias is pretty much the only Abrams project I like without reservation.
Star Wars has Indiana Jones; and Harrison Ford raked in nearly $470 million overseas in 2008. In total Crystal Skull was a $786 million movie. China will watch it if Disney and the theaters cooperate.
Avengers has a Hulk and RDJ tho.
Agreed. Remember, the Star Wars teaser beat AoU in first week YouTube views. Marvel is king of the blockbuster world right now, but Star Wars is a cultural phenomenon that spans four generations at this point. A whole lot of people are going to want to see if the magic is back.
I am starting to lean towards Avengers 2 for opening weekend, and Star Wars 7 for Domestic and WW totals. No way a December opening hits $200M (assuming that Star Wars even opens on the Friday it is currently slated for), but the holiday business will be insane.
I'm not buying the "Asia doesn't care about Star Wars" comments either. Episode 3 made $82M in Japan, and its Chinese gross of $9M back in 2005, is pretty much $100M+ in todays market.
Both films are going to be huge. Disney is going to hit at least $5B this year at the worldwide box office.
I'm not buying the "Asia doesn't care about Star Wars" comments either. Episode 3 made $82M in Japan, and its Chinese gross of $9M back in 2005, is pretty much $100M+ in todays market.
Both films are going to be huge. Disney is going to hit at least $5B this year at the worldwide box office.
People also pitted Nolan against Whedon as the reason the more accomplished film director will carry the more well known franchise/character to greater box office heights.
Nobody is underestimating it. We just no better that to underestimate the Marvel juggernaut. That and the Star Wars brand was heavily damaged by the prequels, hard core fans will certainly see it but what about mainstream audiences? That's where most of the sales will come from. I question whether Star Wars is still relevant to them.
Domestic box office is going to be fairly irrelevant in this battle. Is there evidence that the Star Wars prequels really hurt the brand overseas? Shitty Pirates and Transformers movies didn't stop the fourth films from getting higher grosses than ever overseas. Same goes for the X-Men Franchise.
50 Shades of Grey also beat AoU in first week trailer views IIRC.
AoU's first trailer is sitting above both right now, comfortably ahead of TFA.
And despite FSoG's huge buzz and mainstream cultural awareness, that movie did not have legs like people thought it would.
I think people confuse things like cultural impact and cultural phenomenon with automatically equating to success.
I saw people saying over the last summer how TMNT would beat GotG, before either released, based on how much more well-known TMNT is as a brand and how the kids are way more interested in TMNT. We saw how that panned out and GotG surprisingly had a lot of children and families going to see it, apparently.
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