Tom Brady suspended for 4 games; Patriots lose first-round draft pick; fined $1 mil

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I'm going to repeat this for the next page as it's important to get:

2 major incidents of cheating calls everything into question.

#stripthesuperbowls

You can't just look at deflate-gate on it's own. You have to see the cheating culture that's so persuasive in that organization. Who knows what else they have cheated on at this point? There is no trust anymore.
 
I'm going to repeat this for the next page as it's important to get:



You can't just look at deflate-gate on it's own. You have to see the cheating culture that's so persuasive in that organization. Who knows what else they have cheated on at this point? There is no trust anymore.

So how do you trust the broncos who have been caught breaking the rules with the salary cap multiple times.

Ted Wells said he bills by hour and final tab "no question" will be "in millions of dollars."- @MikeReiss

I read that is 6 million dollars.
 
So how do you trust the broncos who have been caught breaking the rules with the salary cap multiple times.

You didn't read what Godslay posted. Their cheating was financial for the organization to build the stadium and had 0 effect on the on-field product. Can you dispute this?

And once again, I'll vacate those 2 Broncos Superbowls if the Pats vacate their 4.
 
Wells said that Brady was "totally cooperative"

Also mentioned he's (Wells) paid by the hour and the final bill will be "in the millions" haha... Not a bad gig.
 
I'm going to repeat this for the next page as it's important to get:

You can't just look at deflate-gate on it's own. You have to see the cheating culture that's so persuasive in that organization. Who knows what else they have cheated on at this point? There is no trust anymore.

You didn't read what Godslay posted. Their cheating was financial for the organization to build the stadium and had 0 effect on the on-field product. Can you dispute this?

And once again, I'll vacate those 2 Broncos Superbowls if the Pats vacate their 4.

Hey Tabris how are you today?
 
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
· 18m 18 minutes ago
Ted Wells says on a call that no one from Tom Brady’s camp raised any issue with his impartiality. Notes Kraft welcomed his appointment

Ted Wells, responding to Don Yee: “I think it’s wrong to question my independence because you don’t like my findings.”


Ted Wells: “Patriots were all over me from Day 1 on why @NFL did not warn them of a complaint, alleging it was a sting. He did not find that


Ted Wells: “Patriots provided me substantial cooperation except in 1 critical & crucial area – I wanted to do a 2nd interview with McNally.”

Ted Wells said he told Tom Brady that he wouldn’t even hold his phone. Would just take printouts. Brady would not provide the information

Interesting

Bart Hubbuch ‏@BartHubbuch · 9m9 minutes ago
Ted Wells wanted to speak to McNally a second time after finding "The Deflator" text. That's when the Pats suddenly stopped cooperating.

mike freeman ‏@mikefreemanNFL · 8m8 minutes ago
Wells basically just called the Pats liars when it came to McNally interview requests.

Andrew Brandt ‏@adbrandt · 10m10 minutes ago
Wells said Patriots blocked second interview - with his team -- with the "Deflator." Critical to the investigation.

Damn. This like some "A few Good Men" type shit. If you have nothing to hide why refuse the second interview? Why not just turn over printed phone records?

Bill? DID YOU OR DID YOU NOT ORDER THE BALLS DEFLATED??
 
How does that fund me work? Is there any guarantee it will go to the fine?



There isn't even evidence he asked for them to be lowered period.
Didn't the report say something like earlier that season Brady wasn't happy with the inflation levels of the balls (too inflated) so he looked up the rule, and made sure the refs didn't over pump the balls. Said he wanted it low as possible or something.
 
You can't handle the truth... the balls are coated with Flubber because Tom can't throw on his own anymore... that's the real secret.
 
Pats just prepping for a Jimmy future.

edit.

Some Pats fans said Mike Francesa hates the Patriots because the offense isn't black enough on the air. He must really hate the Packers.
 
Terry McCormick ‏@terrymc13 · 2m2 minutes ago
McCourty on #Titans 59-0 loss to #Patriots in 09: The balls were darn near flat that day.

What a tangled web we weave when you are the Patriots
 
Interesting



Damn. This like some "A few Good Men" type shit. If you have nothing to hide why refuse the second interview? Why not just turn over printed phone records?

Bill? DID YOU OR DID YOU NOT ORDER THE BALLS DEFLATED??

In my opinion the fact the Pats stopped cooperating* after the revelation of the 'deflator' text, and McNally removing the footballs from the locker-room without permission, are the most damming evidence in the report.

*The Pats didn't deny an interview, only that it had to be done according to their rules, i.e. questions provided ahead of time, not in person etc. Wells, obviously, didn't accept their terms. You have to wonder why they all of a sudden became tight-lipped.
 
what does deflating balls even do?
do not both teams make use of the balls to score additional sports?

Passing and running have notable advantages (via grip) if you inflate them to an amount that is preferred buy a player, they can take advantage of it over other players.
 
Didn't the report say something like earlier that season Brady wasn't happy with the inflation levels of the balls (too inflated) so he looked up the rule, and made sure the refs didn't over pump the balls. Said he wanted it low as possible or something.

Yeah, that was the text convo in October. Refs inflated the balls to something like 15 PSI before that game (according to texts). Brady was pissed (according to texts), so (more probable than not) he told them to put them at the lowest PSI they can go and carry the NFL rule book with them when they give them to the refs if the refs try to inflate them again. The text conversation that everybody's posted, the one about beachballs, was remarking how the refs -- according to the report -- put the balls at something like 15PSI before that game in October, apparently as a mistake, which prompted Brady to ask these equipment guys to keep them at 12.5.

Ted Wells Report said:
Brady also stated that, at some point, he felt a football that was inflated to 12.5 psi, and decided that should be the target for all future games because he did "not ever want to get near the upper range again." In addition, Brady stated that he suggested that the Patriots give the game officials a copy of Rule 2 when they delivered game balls prior to each game, so that the officials would know that it was not necessary to inflate them further. He claimed that doing so would help ensure that the officials did not alter the footballs he had approved. (pg. 40)

what does deflating balls even do?
do not both teams make use of the balls to score additional sports?

Statistically for Tom Brady it has does nothing. His numbers are identical over the last 7 or so seasons are identical at home and on the road:

RvO2ofZ.png
 
maybe brady just has really small and dainty hands

this is a dumb rule that screws over quarterbacks with little fingers
 
the actual fuck

thanks for the answers. I'll now go back to my e-sports

Ironically enough it wasn't always this way. Few years ago Brady and Manning petitioned the league to allow each team to have their own game balls. League used to control all the balls used during a game
 
Actually its pretty cool to see that anything the Pats do is inspected under a microscope. Just goes to show the amount of popularity and salt alike the team gathers.
 
Ironically enough it wasn't always this way. Few years ago Brady and Manning petitioned the league to allow each team to have their own game balls. League used to control all the balls used during a game

Yep, this exactly. League wanted to be more favorable to passers to make it more exciting, grants QBs the right to work them balls before games. Hence why you have that statement about Aaron Rodgers inflating his balls to 15 PSI, Brady down to 12.5 PSI, etc.

It's interesting that for the biggest penalty in NFL history, the league would have cared so little about this prior to the first officially investigated offense. You'd think something that gets the biggest penalty in NFL history would be like a very well known rule that everybody is clear on that the league takes exacting effort to prevent, or takes some sort of record of each game to ensure fair play.
 
Check out @octonion on twitter for a statistical breakdown of the deflategate measurements (along with I believe an R script).

Note: This will confuse most of the people here if earlier posts are any indication. We managed to watch person unable to compute percentages in an earlier post.

If you hadn't read that deeply into the #deflategate report, the officials very clearly mislabeled one of the gauges for one of the teams.

It also appears they swapped the gauge labels for the Colts C3 ball, or wrote down an incorrect value.

Fixing the swapped label problems, the Pats are statistically in trouble if the Colts starting PSI < 13.3.

If you consider the one Colts reading of 12.95 valid, at least one of the Colts balls must have been 13.3+. So there's that.

The key point is that A reads lower for the Pats, but higher for the Colts. Whoops!

The next big issue is the Colts C3 ball.

Here's the statistical model from the #deflategate report run on the data with the corrections applied. http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https...l/blob/master/deflategate/report_patched.html

Editor Note; R file for the win! http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https...l/blob/master/deflategate/report_patched.html

The anova(fit1,fit2) shows you that the team:gauge interaction term is no longer statistically significant (which it shouldn't be).

The next question is how how does the assumed Colts starting PSI have to be before anova(fit0,fit1) is no longer statistically significant?

model1 contains the team term, model0 does not. The answer comes out to about 13.3 PSI for the Colts (at the 5% level).

Ultimately Tom Brady and the Pats went up the river due to the mixed effects model delta ~ team + gauge + (1|ball).

There are other models you could use, of course. I'm fond of tests like the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U.

Another way entirely to think about the Colts-Pats situation is, based on the Ideal Gas Law, the deltas for both teams should be the same.

Another way entirely to think about the Colts-Pats situation is, based on the Ideal Gas Law, the deltas for both teams should be the same.

If half of the Colts and half of the Pats measurements were with each gauge, the deltas should still have the same distribution, too.

You can run something like the Man Whitney U to test that they're from the same distribution.

Conceptually it's very easy. Sort all of the deltas. Are most of the high values from one source, or are they uniformly distributed?

Here's the non-parametric test results using both gauges, gauge A only, gauge B only. Just for fun. http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https...tball/blob/master/deflategate/np_patched.html …
 
https://www.facebook.com/AdamSchefter/posts/954971701222138

Here’s Ted Wells’ opening statement today:
“I would like to start out by responding to criticisms by Mr. Brady’s agent, Don Yee, about my independence, and his suggestions that the conclusions of the report were somehow influenced by persons in the league office who wanted to find wrongdoing by the Patriots and Mr. Brady.
“The conclusions in the report represent the independent opinions of me personally and my team. And those conclusions were not influenced in any way shape or form by anyone at the league office. We made a fair and reasonable review of the evidence, and we reached conclusions based on the preponderance of the evidence standard, which I was required to apply based on the league’s rules. To the extent Mr. Yee is suggesting that I have some type of conflict because I and my law firm do other work for the NFL, I want to be clear that it is well known that I worked for the NFL in the Miami Dolphins investigation involving Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito. And also that my law firm is involved in representing the NFL in the concussion cases. Those facts were all publicly known at the time I was appointed. When I was appointed to be the independent investigator, no one at the Patriots, or in Mr. Brady’s camp, raised ANY issues about my independence or my integrity to judge the evidence impartially and fairly. In fact, Mr. Kraft, to my recollection, publicly said he welcomed my appointment. I think it is wrong to criticize my independence just because you disagree with my findings.”
 
Do you mind providing a summary?

Short version;

a) the gauges are not statistically significant, even if you assume they're switched and re-do the measurements switching them around to provide maximum benefit to the belief that the Patriots did not cheat

b) Mathematically, the Pats are highly likely (greater than 95%) to have cheated

c) Even if you remove the gauges completely, the difference in the deltas is what dooms the patriots (the patriots balls all deflated way more than the colts balls while in similar conditions, even if you switch the gauges in the best way possible for the patriots).
 
I'm curious what prompted another team to request an investigation into the Patriots deflated footballs. If the psi was truly low, I could understand, but where the balls checked were no more than .4 psi below the required psi, how did the opponent figure it out?

I'm guessing that it had to be a previous incident that occurred where the balls were significantly below the required psi. Both the Ravens and the Colts thought something was up, but the balls for the Colts game were hardly deflated.
 
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