Principate
Saint Titanfall
I knew her social media stuff was bad but oh god, I'm almost disgusted. I'm cringing into next year, can't take her seriously anymore.
Why is Hillary guaranteed to win?
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I knew her social media stuff was bad but oh god, I'm almost disgusted. I'm cringing into next year, can't take her seriously anymore.
fredrancour
Member
1. A Republican candidate would have to nearly sweep the swing states to get enough electoral college votes.
2. Republican primaries seem to still be defined by a race to get farther right to please more radical primary voters, which as we saw in 2012's cycle, is likely to lead to a steadily-increasing supply of statements and opinions that alienate more moderate voters at general election time.
3. Demographic shifts in swing states are showing increases in portions of the population more likely to vote democrat.
Thus, barring major twists, the odds of the democratic candidate winning are pretty good.
Hilary is the democratic favorite because, unless Biden declares, the only real alternative is Bernie Sanders. Not all democrats are dedicated to socialist economic policy, and some who would love it are afraid "socialst" is still a code word for communist in the eyes of a large enough fraction of Americans to sink Bernie in a general election.
Things can obviously change over time. Maybe Fox news will eventually fling a piece of crap that actually sticks in the eyes of people who weren't already committed to voting Republican. Maybe Republican leaders give up, roll with trump, and his style of talking trash about everything manages to appeal to some people who were previously going to vote democrat (though i doubt this when his favorite indignant talking points are mostly republican ones). Maybe Bernie support hits critical mass because Hilary is boring, or maybe Biden declares and becomes the new favorite. Regardless, with what information we have right now, it's the best effort at a prediction that can be made.
Oh and there are polls, of course. I think they show her polling over every republican candidate in the swing states as well, by some margin? haven't followed them as tightly this election cycle.
2. Republican primaries seem to still be defined by a race to get farther right to please more radical primary voters, which as we saw in 2012's cycle, is likely to lead to a steadily-increasing supply of statements and opinions that alienate more moderate voters at general election time.
3. Demographic shifts in swing states are showing increases in portions of the population more likely to vote democrat.
Thus, barring major twists, the odds of the democratic candidate winning are pretty good.
Hilary is the democratic favorite because, unless Biden declares, the only real alternative is Bernie Sanders. Not all democrats are dedicated to socialist economic policy, and some who would love it are afraid "socialst" is still a code word for communist in the eyes of a large enough fraction of Americans to sink Bernie in a general election.
Things can obviously change over time. Maybe Fox news will eventually fling a piece of crap that actually sticks in the eyes of people who weren't already committed to voting Republican. Maybe Republican leaders give up, roll with trump, and his style of talking trash about everything manages to appeal to some people who were previously going to vote democrat (though i doubt this when his favorite indignant talking points are mostly republican ones). Maybe Bernie support hits critical mass because Hilary is boring, or maybe Biden declares and becomes the new favorite. Regardless, with what information we have right now, it's the best effort at a prediction that can be made.
Oh and there are polls, of course. I think they show her polling over every republican candidate in the swing states as well, by some margin? haven't followed them as tightly this election cycle.
legacyzero
Banned
I love watching Bernie's uphill battle. He's doing things his own way, and actually doing it very well.
But folks are jumping to some odd conclusions. I believe the first dem debate is going to be the story teller.
But folks are jumping to some odd conclusions. I believe the first dem debate is going to be the story teller.
I don't think it was that she's guaranteed to win the presidency, some democrats think she will because they think Republican candidates will be unpopular and they think the states Obama won are a lock. Neither of those are likely true. Most of the talk right now is that she's guaranteed to win the Democratic nomination since she has name recognition, the money, the support of most of the Democratic elite, and has experience running a national election.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If you're looking for DEAD HEAT or STATISTICALLY TIED analysis there's no shortage out there. Who could forget 2012 and the media nonsense.
Smokey_Run
Member
He wouldn't win PA. It would just be endless commercials about him being a self proclaimed socialist and it'd be over here.
No he isn't.
He consolidated the Elizabeth Warren votes and then stopped. He's not peeling away Hillary voters, he's picking up college liberals.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Hillary even has a chance? Aww...that's cute.
At least people were offering insightful analysis until this joke of a post. Very informative.
perfectchaos007
Member
This is literally the GOP's best case scenario map, and as you can see, it still falls short
Ryouji Gunblade
Member
She isn't. It's just establishment talk.
Hillary even has a chance? Aww...that's cute.
Curious who you think has the best chance.
teruterubozu
Member
Where are the Hillary voters/cheerleaders? I swear, I've never seen such lack of enthusiasm. Seems even Kerry had more excitement.
gutter_trash
Banned
Yup and it is generous because Colorado will likely stay Blue
They can win Penn or Virginia, and NJ, Nevada are within the realm of possibility.
That said a strong or even halfway decent dem will win all of those states by 3-5 points.
And compete in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and others that should be winnable.
speculawyer
Member
She's not. A big scandal could knock her out. But she has a very good chance of winning.
Shifting demographics. Women, black people, Latinos. .. all lean Dem.
GOP is too damn crazy. There's at least 4 pushing for abortion ban with no exceptions for rape and incest. (Rubio, Huckabee, Carson, and Walker). Actually Cruz, Bush & Santorum also probably too. And the new thing is no exception for life of the mother.
Shifting demographics. Women, black people, Latinos. .. all lean Dem.
GOP is too damn crazy. There's at least 4 pushing for abortion ban with no exceptions for rape and incest. (Rubio, Huckabee, Carson, and Walker). Actually Cruz, Bush & Santorum also probably too. And the new thing is no exception for life of the mother.
JesseEwiak
Member
She's not guaranteed to win, but short of the emails showing her in a lesbian relationship with Huma Abedin, or personally opening the doors at Benghazi, the economy totally cratering, or some video of her making fun of non-white people comes out in the next fifteen months, she's a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite.
She'll win the primary because her only competitor is a socialist, and socialism doesn't play well with people here (unfortunately), not even among Democrats.
She'll win the general because her opponents are a bunch of freaks, nutjobs and whackos of various stripes, all of which who are too extreme for the average swing voter.
I'd love to see Bernie win, but he can't win the general.
She'll win the general because her opponents are a bunch of freaks, nutjobs and whackos of various stripes, all of which who are too extreme for the average swing voter.
I'd love to see Bernie win, but he can't win the general.
JesseEwiak
Member
Blacks, Hispanics, women, working class voters - ya' know, the actual core of the Democratic party outside of white liberal dudes on the Internet.
teruterubozu
Member
Blacks and Hispanics are going crazy for Hillary? I'm not seeing it.
Ninja Scooter
Member
He's resonating with the core of the republican base. The very vocal minority. He'd get trounced in a general election.
You are on an internet forum filled with Bernie Sanders key demo. Of course Bernie is going to appear to have a lot more support with 22 year olds who love people who peddle simple solutions to complex problems and support super-liberal positions that are impossible to enact in the current congress.
speculawyer
Member
Love the bitterness dripping from this post.
BertramCooper
Banned
Yeah, it's resonating with a lot of old white men who make up a huge portion of the GOP electorate but are being increasingly marginalized in the general election.
In a general election Trump would do abysmally with women and every minority group. He'd be absolutely demolished, and it's foolish to think otherwise.
I agree, I was just trying to illustrate how much easier the path is for the Hillary even in this best case republican map they still lose.
I must be famous now lol. The Bush name is going to be toxic in a general election especially against a Clinton. Trump despite my wishes is not likely to get the nomination. Sanders is surging but he has hit a wall and is still the underdog by 30+ points nationally.
Everything else I would say others have said in regards to demographics and the electoral college. The Republicans have to sweep all the swing states.
Jeb! actually reaffirmed after the Rubio double down that he's still for abortion in case of rape/incest/life of the mother.
I guess he's still trying to look like the parent in the room, even as he makes gaffe after gaffe.
Whose the governor of NJ again? NJ is winnable by a Republican. It is not winnable in most scenarios, but Bernie vs. someone halfway reasonable?
It becomes a battleground state.
It's not a 'tipping point' state because Virginia will have already gone Red before NJ (as would PA). That's why Virginia continues to be the single most important state. It is the state that is most likely to signal a Republican victory if it goes red at this point in time.
She is guaranteed to win the primary and probably has a 50/50 shot in a general election, which is more than you can ask for most candidates. And even the 50/50 has a lot to do with the election being more than a year away, as opposed to her own weaknessesit's difficult to forecast against a field of 10+ candidates. A Jeb/Hillary election will have a different narrative than a... Walker/Hillary election. No one's guaranteed to win, but she's about as strongly positioned as any non-incumbent could be at this stage in the game.
JesseEwiak
Member
Look at the polling numbers. The only people going crazy for Bernie statistically are white liberal dudes.
teruterubozu
Member
Bernie & Trump are riding the early wave, I agree. Only the hardcore follow elections this early, so they go with the far-rights and far-lefts (anybody remember Newt Gingrich's "guaranteed" nomination? no.). But by the time it's "Hillary's time" is she going to be able to garner legitimate excitement? I just see lots of people not voting this time around.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Virginia has voted for a Dem governor and a Dem senator in off years and bad turnout. It is somehow become a very difficult place for Republicans in any year, let alone Presidential years.
gutter_trash
Banned
Bernie does well among white College types and latte sippers who are loud on the internets.
Hillary trounces Bernie among white blue collar workers who outnumber hipsters.
Hillary trounces Bernie among white blue collar workers who outnumber hipsters.
If turnout is light, the Republicans will win. And Hillary has an enthusiasm problem.
This country still defaults to GOP/Tea Party as midterms, state elections, local elections,etc attest to. There's no way anyone should ever think any Democrat running for a state or nation-wide election has it in the bag.
This country still defaults to GOP/Tea Party as midterms, state elections, local elections,etc attest to. There's no way anyone should ever think any Democrat running for a state or nation-wide election has it in the bag.
God bless DC and its suburbs.
IF Christie is in the ticket the GOP will lose new Jersey by a bigger margin. Even if Christie was still popular, federal elections are not the same as state elections: Ex Massachusetts, west Virginia.
Ninja Scooter
Member
but Cena always wins.
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