Do you guys actually think Donald Trump can get the nomination

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Christopher

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I know at first we have been entertained by this man and his ridiculousness however the polls are clearly showing that people are on his side at first I thought there was no way he would get the Nom however I had memories today of Sarah Palin actually been on my television screen being entertained as the Feiss president of the United States of America

Could the Donald happen
 
Nah. He has a lead, but his numbers aren't that high. There's Trump votes and not-Trump votes, and as people drop out the not-Trump votes will consolidate behind fewer and fewer candidates.
 
He'll go indie.

Unless the GOP embraces him, and I don't see that happening. He'll take some fat with him though when he goes 3rd party.
 
No. He is leading the polls because the vote is split between so many different candidates. Once all the people with no chance drop out (Carson, Santorum, Fiorina, Cruz, Graham, Kasich, Rubio, et al) most of the right will consolidate their support behind Bush or Walker.
 
HE'S ALREADY WON GAF'S THREAD PRESIDENCY.

No.. ultimately I don't think the donlad can close the deal.
 
I know at first we have been entertained by this man and his ridiculousness however the polls are clearly showing that people are on his side at first I thought there was no way he would get the Nom however I had memories today of Sarah Palin actually been on my television screen being entertained as the Feiss president of the United States of America

Could the Donald happen

If the last republican primary race is anything to go by we could see a lot of different front-runners before they settle on one mediocre candidate.
 
If you asked me two weeks ago, I would have said no.

Now? I have no idea...
 
Sure. He absolutely can.

Finish top 3 in Iowa, but ahead of Carson or Cruz.

Win New Hampshire.

Pass over South Carolina ("I want to make America great, and a state that leaves this nation on it's own is not great!")

Beat Jeb/Rubio in Florida.

However, it's all about who he's facing. If it's May, and the race is Rubio, Walker, and Trump, the Donald has an advantage. If it's Jeb, Cruz, and Trump, then Trump might be in trouble. If it's Cruz and Trump, then I'm smiling, but Trump is losing. if it's Jeb and Trump, then the GOP better be ready to say nice things about a "celebrity candidate."
 
People think Bush has a shot and I don't know why other than people like their royals in the US. Democrats love their Clintons and Republicans love their Bushes
 
I hope he does win the R nomination, but it's virtually certain that he will not.

More likely though that he keeps running anyway as 3rd party, which would make my day/year/life/etc.
 
Sure. He absolutely can.

Finish top 3 in Iowa, but ahead of Carson or Cruz.

Win New Hampshire.

Pass over South Carolina ("I want to make America great, and a state that leaves this nation on it's own is not great!")

Beat Jeb/Rubio in Florida.

However, it's all about who he's facing. If it's May, and the race is Rubio, Walker, and Trump, the Donald has an advantage. If it's Jeb, Cruz, and Trump, then Trump might be in trouble. If it's Cruz and Trump, then I'm smiling, but Trump is losing. if it's Jeb and Trump, then the GOP better be ready to say nice things about a "celebrity candidate."

You have a pretty good grasp on the situation. Jeb's numbers tanking is what moved me from "no way it could happen" to "well.. maybe". Cruz is even polling above Bush in that Fox News poll that seems to overstate Jeb. In that poll, Carson and Cruz made up 22%, and I can see the majority of that 22% going to Trump if they dropped out.

Edit: Also changed my mind? The McCain comments not tanking his campaign. He can pretty much say anything at this point and it won't be worse then that.
 
I'm afraid. I'm very afraid people will vote for him just for the laughs. 😨

People don't go out of their way to vote in a primary or caucus for a joke. They'll support him for laughs on the Internet and then not vote, which is what they would have done if he hadn't run at all.
 
I think he can. His opposition are a bunch of wet blankets. People will say I am crazy but I think he will beat Hillary too.
 
Possibly, but in the meantime, I'm thoroughly enjoying the chaos he's sent the GOP into.
 
I think he can. His opposition are a bunch of wet blankets. People will say I am crazy but I think he will beat Hillary too.

You are crazy. He has ZERO chance in a general election. Women and minorities hate him. It's just not as obvious when you are comparing him to other misogynist assholes.
 
People don't go out of their way to vote in a primary or caucus for a joke. They'll support him for laughs on the Internet and then not vote, which is what they would have done if he hadn't run at all.

Which is why I mean bigots and racists might gain him the nomination (or at least get him to run as an independent) and then he'll drain off enough votes in the Presidential election to effect it.
 
The poll numbers show that the commentary about he debate has bearing on what the public actually thinks. 24 million watched the debate. Pundits declared Trump a loser. Pundits declared Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio the winners. However at the end of the day. Trump keeps on rocking while Rubio and Fiorina are bottom of the barrel.
 
I'm afraid. I'm very afraid people will vote for him just for the laughs. 😨

My mother said she would vote for him because he isn't afraid to speak his mind. I asked her to tell me what she thought about his policies and she said she doesn't know about them.

Why again don't we only let informed voters vote?
 
He is leading in the polls, so he obviously has a chance. Based on my parents support of him I don't think people will change their minds that easily.
 
Let's look at 2012:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...Huntsman,Paul,Perry,Romney,Santorum,Undecided

-- Rick Perry was in 1st place in aggregate polling from August 7th to a little after September 18th. 6 weeks.

-- Herman Cain was in 1st place in aggregate polling from October 10th to November 9th. 4 weeks.

-- Newt Gingrich was in 1st place in aggregate polling from November 15th to December 23rd. 5 and a half weeks.

-- Rick Santorum was in 1st place in aggregate polling from February 18th to February 28th. 1 and a half weeks.

Let's look at 2016:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary

-- Donald Trump has been in 1st place from July 6th to now. 6 weeks to the day.

But unlike Rick Perry, he didn't get completely discredited after the first debate and his poll numbers are stable and not dropping. He'll be ahead as we march into the fall.

Which means this is different than 2012. I don't think he'll win the nomination. But we're getting past the point where the Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Bachmann comparisons run hollow.
 
Absolutely. Anything goes at this stage, but I can definitely see it ending up as Trump Vs Clinton, in which case I would vote for neither and very reluctantly root for Trump. It's early, but at least IMO, this election has some of THE shittiest candidates in decades.
 
No. It's a sideshow, an entertaining one, and one that reveals a great deal about just how monumentally vulnerable Republicans are for the general - but he's not actually moving the metric with the demographics he needs to actually seal the deal for a nomination or a General Election.
 
A lot of people laughed off the possibility several weeks ago, but after the Fox debate and Trump's consistent domination in the polls, it is a lot less ridiculous notion to me than it was a month ago.

I still think, ultimately, he will not be the nominee, but I can no longer laugh off his prospects.
 
We are almost six months away from a vote being cast, that's an eternity. Smart money is on him fizzling out

Yes, I still think that's more likely than not. However, when he released his immigration "policy" this week, that to me means this is not going to be over until then.
 
There are a couple articles at vox that you guys should read. Trump Carson and Cruz combined are out polling the establishment candidates bush et al. (Sorry no link on mobile).

There is a fundamental problem the republican elites face, nobody actually agrees with their policies. Rank and file Republicans want Medicare and social security. Trump basically expresses their preferences in the most bombastic, reactionary way possible. The party is wide open to an insurgency. This has legs. Maybe not enough to get the nomination, especially once the dirty tricks come out, but it's reflective of real dissatisfaction.
 
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