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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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PumpkinSpice
Banned
Campaign ads have to stop before Monday right? And the news cycle this weekend will probably just focus on "campaign as a whole" type stuff rather than real coverage since not so many people watch news on weekend.
So... this is it? I honestly expected a call around now from Trudeau for NDP voters to switch to stop Harper but I guess they didn't want to cause bad blood post election. It was good to hear him call for Conservative voters to switch instead.
So... this is it? I honestly expected a call around now from Trudeau for NDP voters to switch to stop Harper but I guess they didn't want to cause bad blood post election. It was good to hear him call for Conservative voters to switch instead.
TheRealTalker
Banned
how accurate is this?
Ontario in 1985 would be the most obvious comparison, though the animus wasn't anywhere near as strong.
Er, we don't know, and won't until Monday night.
If anyone is curious here's the actual seat count that sauder school of business site predicts.
CPC: 112 seats
LPC 137 seats
NDP 79 seats
BQ 5 seats
Green 2 seats
Independent: 0 seats
Rounding errors won't result in 338 seats if I use this model.
I'm using the last bid section to calculate this.
CPC: 112 seats
LPC 137 seats
NDP 79 seats
BQ 5 seats
Green 2 seats
Independent: 0 seats
Rounding errors won't result in 338 seats if I use this model.
I'm using the last bid section to calculate this.
Seriously. This election is so important to fix these things. Fixing the electoral system is the first step and then bringing back the long form census. So much damage has been done this past decade. It will take a long time to fix it.
TheRealTalker
Banned
lol I mean how did they go about the process in getting these numbers?
the link isn't working for me for some reason so I can't see
Edit: Never mind I finally got it to work
Take off your Trudeau goggles and re-read my post.
The issue isn't the general amount of lobbying in government, nor is it the parts of the letter explaining the change in government.
At issue here is the interpretation of the final two paragraphs I quoted. I'm not an expert enough to discern whether Gagnier did something illegal or fineable, but I do know that there's an easy to see possible interpretation of the document where Gagnier comes across as a shady influence peddler.
If your reaction is "I don't see it that way" FINE. But the text can be read that way. If it couldn't be there then he wouldn't have resigned and we wouldn't be talking about this right now.
I'm not alone on this. I just watched the CBC At Issue episode on this and all panelists thought this was a bizarre misstep by Gagnier.
People were asking what's wrong with the letter, and I provided the answer.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Hahaha, great choices.
What makes me wonder about the tories is that the tory campaign itself appears to be tepid about their chances right now. It's important because from what I've seen, Tories have more reliable data on who will get them what seats than anyone working polling. So if they're worried, something must look bad.
Perfect Blue
Banned
Facebook ads are targeted so you're getting that because you either liked them on Facebook or have posted stuff pertaining to the Liberals/Justin Trudeau. I get them too and 0 NPD/CPC ads.Incidentally, I really hate this:
(note: I'm sure the NDP and CPC do something similar, but only the liberals seem to be buying ads that hit me on facebook)
It's basically a push poll. :/
7% people said Harper most embodies change, lol wut
If you like your local NDP MP, vote for him/her. The key is that a Tory doesn't win it.
What riding, incidentally?
TheRealTalker
Banned
Incidentally, I really hate this:
(note: I'm sure the NDP and CPC do something similar, but only the liberals seem to be buying ads that hit me on facebook)
It's basically a push poll. :/
are you with TRUDEAU-SENPAI or are you the ENEMY
yeah I wouldn't be shocked if the NDP would pull the same if they were in the lead
I wonder if the tories internal polls are actually worse than all the polls that have been released in the last few days or so.I have a funny feeling that the tories will do worse than a lot of polls suggested in the last week or so.
BigJonsson
Member
Does clicking on "undecided" take you to some sort of argument for why you should vote Liberal?Incidentally, I really hate this:
(note: I'm sure the NDP and CPC do something similar, but only the liberals seem to be buying ads that hit me on facebook)
It's basically a push poll. :/
leger conducted it online. I probably should post the QC numbers : 31 LPC, 20 CPC, 25 NDP, and 23 BQ
BigJonsson
Member
Has Nanos/ekos said if they will be releasing daily tracking numbers through the weekend?
Nah, I explicitly try to keep my facebook relatively politics free. I've made one post on this election that mentions the liberals and it was recently, been seeing this ad for weeks.
It's actually probably demographically targeted.
I shall never know.
I've been wondering if, with the Francophone vote potentially splitting so heavily, we're going to see the Liberals win a few ridings which they would never have won with a fairly unified Francophone vote, but where now their Anglo/Allophone dominance + some Francophones is enough for a plurality.
His resigning was a strategic move to show how expendable he was, and how far from Trudeau's government he actually was.
TheRealTalker
Banned
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper calls the Liberals economic plan all unicorns and rainbows
Well he is a master of the dark arts
Well he is a master of the dark arts
Yes. His actions came across as questionable, and Trudeau wanted to make the statement that his government would never stand for any behaviour of that sort, and so Gagnier was asked to resign. Trudeau made the correct move here.
I think the results will probably be within the MOE of the last polls on sunday, with maybe some momentum swing accounted for, but I expect uniform swing is going to do very very badly at predicting riding outcomes this time around. Efficiencies are going to be very different with such vast swings from last election.
If the CPC are doing a lot of riding polls, or just have better methodology for their voter id techniques than the other parties, what they might be seeing is a more complete picture of where they're losing out on seats they would previously have won.
From this Oct 10th post http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/understanding-projections-i-uniform-vs.html
C-L-N-B
Uniform swing models
129-115-86-7 (Canadian Election Watch, unadjusted, 10/9)
131-113-91-2 (Too Close to Call, 10/9)*
127-115-88-7 (Le calcul électoral, 10/8)
123-113-98-3 (LISPOP, 10/4)
(The Globe's Election Forecast, which provides probabilities, is also based on uniform swing.)
*Includes slight turnout adjustment (smaller than this blog's).
Proportional swing models
122-131-80-4 (Three Hundred Eight, 10/9)
130-136-67-4 (The Signal, 10/9)
126-129-80-2 (Election Almanac, 10/8)
123-125-81-8 (Election Atlas, 10/8)
lmao also he's projected to lose his riding ( projected to go liberal according to 308)
To clarify (which is fair enough), I mean any kind of swing model.
BigJonsson
Member
Easy there.....
how do i ozone
I don't know what we're talking about. lol
There is nothing wrong with being a master of the dark arts. I to practice the craft and I'm a wholesome person (I think).
TheRealTalker
Banned
surely you jest
A Sorcerer will clearly toss us into despair... He will spawn brothels and drug stations across the country and turn the Peace Tower into the eye of Sauron
It's gonna be awesome.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Haha that's awesome.
Do you guys work in politics? Or you just like watching election nights? 
I'm guessing 63% or 64% turnout. Young people are more motivated to vote, but still not very motivated overall.
Ughh, the provincial-federal infighting is so lame. If people 15 years ago saw what Canada is today, it would be unrecognizable.
BigJonsson
Member
That ad aired tonight, meh
She has been campaigning pretty strongly for the past few weeks and Trudeau's numbers keep going up, don't know how much of an effect it'll have
I didn't know rogers was hosting local debates. Right now they have Beaches- East York. It's nice to see them include other candidates such as those from the marxist-leninist party. James Sears is also running as an Independent and this guy is crazy haha. I remember him in the Toronto municipal election debates.
No one besides their shrinking base in Ontario will care I bet you.
At this point, I'm amazed that the CPC didn't already air TV ads claiming that Trudeau would let terrorists into the country -_-
HalfwayOrb
Member
Go Liberal.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Wow, look at those Quebec numbers. 873 Quebeckers polled, decent sample size.
31% LPC
25% NDP
23% BQ
20% CPC
Depending on the Franco/Anglo split, that might be some disasterous crash for the NDP
The Ontario numbers from all these polls make me happy. 43-47% are really solid numbers, and will ensure that Conservatives won't even get minority. Conservatives are going to get wiped clean in urban Ontario. Bye bye Chris Alexander.
45% LPC
33% CPC
20% NDP
2% GPC
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