(Arstechnica) Analysis: Sony continues to widen its console sales lead over Microsoft

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Lock it up if old.

You're sure that it wasn't Statham wo made these graphs?
 
So what is the purpose of this article then?

"Xbox One sales have a better YOY growth rate than PS4 sales, but that level of growth still isn't good enough to get Xbox One any closer to PS4's nominal sales."

The point about how long it would take Xbox to overtake PS4 at the current rate of growth really just exists to show how far behind Xbox is - that it'd need to keep this up for longer than it'll probably be on the market (while PS4 growth rates stay relatively smaller) to catch up (which will never happen because that's not how console sales curves have ever looked).

It's basically designed to cut through the spin around Xbox sales growth so people don't try to use it to suggest that Xbox could come anywhere close to a win this gen.
 
You know, I haven't started a gaming blog or website because I don't see myself as a good enough journalist or writer but articles like this set the standard pretty low.

Maybe I can make it.
 
That bar chart graph of projected YOY sales is breathtakingly useless. If the author of the article is aware enough to note that "console sales patterns decidedly do not work in this way," why even bother creating a set of figures whose base assumptions are explicitly not grounded in reality?

Unless, of course, the intent is to mislead visitors who accept the "trends" suggested by said figures without considering said base assumptions.
 
Xbox One is just too future for you guys.

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Beta tested in the future

"Xbox One sales have a better YOY growth rate than PS4 sales, but that level of growth still isn't good enough to get Xbox One any closer to PS4's nominal sales."

The point about how long it would take Xbox to overtake PS4 at the current rate of growth really just exists to show how far behind Xbox is - that it'd need to keep this up for longer than it'll probably be on the market (while PS4 growth rates stay relatively smaller) to catch up (which will never happen because that's not how console sales curves have ever looked).

It's basically designed to cut through the spin around Xbox sales growth so people don't try to use it to suggest that Xbox could come anywhere close to a win this gen.

No one in their right mind would think that the growth percentage will just stay the same for a decade, it doesn't make any sense.
 
600 million units of PS4 & Xbox One will ship this gen?
Of course.
They didn't have the next decade because by 2035 that annual double digit growth will compound itself into a singularity that will swallow the universe.

Or they could fire that intern before it's too late.
 

LMAO

This is up there with the Polygon chart.

It's important to note that console sales patterns decidedly do not work in this way, and it's a bit ridiculous to expect annual sales to continue increasing in this kind of parabolic curve. Still, it's interesting to see that based on current trends, the Xbox One wouldn't start to outsell the PS4 on an annual basis until 2024. At that point, Sony would have continued building up a significant life-to-date lead of over 50 million consoles worldwide before Microsoft would be able to stop the bleeding (Fig. 8).

Then why make that silly chart in the first place?
 
Beta tested in the future



No one in their right mind would think that the growth percentage will just stay the same for a decade, it doesn't make any sense.

Right? This is without the PS4 substantial price cuts, or emptying their established First Party lineups yet as well.

I do not think MSFT is prepared to unload so much into First Party experiments like Sony did last generation... they are leaning towards the gaming as a service side of things.
 
Of course.
They didn't have the next decade because by 2035 that annual double digit growth will compound itself into a singularity that will swallow the universe.

Or they could fire that intern before it's too late.

Just need that 1% of China to buy these consoles.
 
Ars Technica can't be considered a serious tech outlet anymore, not after those sales analysis articles ...
 
Wow this is amazing - I never thought the infamous Xbox 360 - PS3 - Wii projection bar chart would be beaten by more stupidity. Ars just blew my mind!

ps3ud0 8)
 
Then why make that silly chart in the first place?

to show graphically that it would take until 2024 at the current sales rate for MS to overtake sony in sales?

it's a pretty reasonable chart that shows precisely what it intends to--that it's unrealistic to believe that MS will ever outsell Sony
 
LMAO

This is up there with the Polygon chart.



Then why make that silly chart in the first place?


I don't think Kyle Orland understands the purpose of a counterfactual. You can't just extrapolate data in an absurd fashion, call the extrapolation you did ridiculous, but then come to a conclusion based on it nevertheless.

He pretty much built a data strawman.

to show graphically that it would take until 2024 at the current sales rate for MS to overtake sony in sales?

it's a pretty reasonable chart that shows precisely what it intends to--that it's unrealistic to believe that MS will ever outsell Sony

No, no it doesn't -- because the percentage YoY change is NOT the relevant statistic to make the projection in the first place. Showing the wrong projection takes 10 years doesn't help us understand what the right projections would say in any way, shape, or form.
 
I knew from the title that this is going to be good. The thread didn't disappoint. Throw the article in next to those Polygon charts and the "don't read in too much" from Ars couple years back. "This is gold Jerry, gold".
 
No one in their right mind would think that the growth percentage will just stay the same for a decade, it doesn't make any sense.

There was a chart that at one point was posted in association with this article that had Microsoft projecting that the industry growth would just keep climbing after last generation, despite the mountains of evidence to the contrary. The chart seems to have disappeared now. It was really quite hilarious. They thought growth would match the rate we saw with the Wii generation.

If people at a multi-billion dollar corporation can misunderstand the console industry's growth so badly, I don't put it past fans to run with the "Xbox sales growing faster" point to the conclusion that Xbox will eventually catch up to PS4.
 
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