You should have put spoiler tags on that, there is no point in waiting for NPD now, hype deflated.
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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
You should have put spoiler tags on that, there is no point in waiting for NPD now, hype deflated.
Definitely, though if MS REALLY cared about reducing the gap in just October then we would have seen official prices that were "desperate".
Based on the deals we're seeing now in comparison to October, it seems like MS definitely had a plan to make a ton of money from Halo's launch last month and then try and catch up to PS4 with attractive prices/deals in November and December.
slavesnyder
Member
It's what happened in Hollywood 20 years ago. If one out of ten films becomes a blockbuster the rest can tank. Worked well for the big studios. And in the end the smaller got swallowed, became low budget arthouse or closed.
Console is still okay. But not for too long I guess. PC is dead.
Problem is that when retail dies, microsoft's vision becomes reality. Full control of channels, content, featuring and pricing.
Whoever as consumers embraces the digital future should be careful what he wishes for.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Winning, as in still winning November? o_0
It's still Halo month though, regardless of their proyections for the holidays. You would expect Halo to move a lot more consoles than its competitor. Not doing so would make discussion over it understandable instead of being a dismissal.
They were probably confident that Halo would be enough to drive enough sales to put the Xbone considerably on top in October, even at that price. They also had a couple more bundles as well.
They lost a lot of money last holidays, so it's understandable to play it a bit safe this time around, specially with a franchise that drives sales, but if you actually believe that they don't want to win NPD or be the leader in the US then I don't know what else I could say. You have to be naive to think otherwise.
slavesnyder
Member
It's the same source that told him that The Last Guardian is dead.Same question. Have you heard this from your connections or more like your guts telling you something. I am asking because people already started to celebrate.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Link please?
He should ban himself for that.
CosmicQueso
Member
Yep.
Not to open an ugly can of worms, but the STEAM model has worked pretty great on the PC. Of course, you do have competition there from Blizzard, Ubi, EA, GOG, etc, so definitely not apples:apples to what it would look like on console.
Same Neural Network that was telling you TLG was dead?
The way I interpret it is "my neural network" = his brain.
Basically it's what he thinks.
This being said obviously a (probably) small Xbox win this month would not be a big suprise, even if I give PS4 winning by "a nose".
slavesnyder
Member
I was once told not to explain jokes.
ethomaz
Banned
The market is really selling less?
I saw some games selling way more than previous games or on pair at least... Bloodborne sold more, MGSV sold on pair, etc.
What I'm sawing is a decline in quality and an increase in bugged games but software are selling amazing good... New IP selling record numbers, old IPs starting to get stream again, etc.
We are still talking about the Xbox One doing this during a month in which the top console (PS4) got its first price drop. I would agree with you far more if that wasn't the case.
Agree -- I never said anything close to that. I simply said that changing the trend to come close to that goal was never going to happen via just October with a $500 bundle and various new $400 bundles being pushed (when the regular SKU is $350).
They need to win multiple big months (i.e.: mainly November and December) to have a shot at that. As I said before, the gap between the first place console and second place console in North America is the smallest it has even been at this point for any gen with the PlayStation brand (20 years). The possibility for MS catching up is there just due to that fact alone.
It's going to take more than just October for that to come close to happening though -- even with the launch of Halo 5.
We are talking about a month (again, October) in which most consoles don't get close to 500K in sales (NPD).
3rdamention
Member
If Tomb Raider sells that low, it will not chart, and we will never know what it sells for November. Microsoft, SE or CD aren't going to share those numbers, at least specific sales numbers. They would be super low, especially compared to the 3.4 Million Tomb Raider 2013 Sold in its first month, and the 600K that the definitive edition did in its first month or so.
And if they were that low, fans would be saying "Look what you did, alienated fans, you deserve it." The PR for those 3 companies aren't going to want that shit storm.
He got disconnected
His comment was revealed too soon as it wasn't in a working state, and now will be clarified 4 years later to have been reworked for the next gen NPD October results. Or something.
Again, we're talking about Halo here, MS's flagship title and one their biggest console movers. A PS4 price drop (one that puts it at the same price as the Xbone, mind you) doesn't suddenly turns a discussion over Halo's possible underperformance in October into a dismissal. Which was my point from the beginning.
panda-zebra
Member
There should be bonus points for people voting earlier and not constantly second guessing themselves until the very last minute with a dozen or more changes of mind throughout the month (teehee).
Bitch Pudding
Member
The Xbox 360 won all of the months that had a major Halo release. Here are the gaps between the Xbox 360 and the second place console (whether Wii or PS3) during these months:
Halo 3 launch -- September 2007: Xbox 360 won by 26.8K
Halo Reach launch -- September 2010: Xbox 360 won by 172K
Halo 5 launch -- November 2012: Xbox 360 won by 500K
So basically, there shouldn't be an expectation for the Xbox console to beat the competition by over 200K with a Halo launch if it's during a month outside of November.
With the way things have played out THIS gen though (and again, the prices of the Xbox bundles that were pushed in October), I think it's unrealistic for someone to predict the Xbox One winning by at least 100K in October.
CosmicQueso
Member
When titles hit, they hit bigger than ever. But outside of the Top 5/Top 10 it's pretty bleak in terms of packaged sales.
As measured by critics, yes average review scores are lower this gen than last.
Impossible to say for certain if this is actually true or that since there are far fewer games coming out that a higher % of titles have a lot of bugs. Probably true.
Some is selling good, others are not. Some new IP is doing fantastic, others aren't. On average, however, Packaged SW sales are down due to a combination of factors. Fewer platforms, advent of digital, alternative channels, etc.
But a lot (most? all?) of these declines are made up for by higher penetration and spend on DLC, higher digital distribution share, etc.
I guess my point is that packaged SW sales as reported by NPD are, on average, lower than they've been in prior years but that this really isn't as big a deal in terms of consumer spending due to all the other ways available for people to spend money.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
is that including digital neurons?
FranXico
Member
As cool as Titanfall is, it is no where near as popular as Halo.
slavesnyder
Member
Agree that we would not agree. Even more as I don't see Steam as a blessing either. So let's keep the can shut.
VanCityGamer
Member
Holy shit a lot of people aren't understanding that Kev's post is a joke! Come on, people. We do not know which system has won.
Xbox One and PS4 install base in North America and Europe is 32 Million. Retail is down 8%. Digital downloads are up 21%.: https://zhugeex.com/2015/11/next-gen-install-base-reaches-32-million-in-north-america-and-europe/
Remains to be proved. He could have been told the outcome by someone possessing NPD preliminary datas
i am not sure they can do better than the halo 5 launch spin last week then again ....
Kenzodielocke
Banned
So it is confirmed ?
slavesnyder
Member
Y2kev does not get his numbers from NPD.
It's the other way round.
You do not know Kev then.
You had PC preorders? Huh?
panda-zebra
Member
#huntthetruth
Some context is necessary: The Xbox 360 won over the PS3 the vast majority of months it was on the market.
Bolivar687
Banned
Can we put this in the OP if Xbox wins, to avoid the avalanche of posts just like it?
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I vote put it in the OP if ps4 wins as well lol
Just to think back a few months ago here on the neogaf forums, where it was a given that Xbox One would demolish competition.
VanCityGamer
Member
Kev jokes around like that all the time. And if you actually read the content of the post, you can tell it is a joke. He is not an insider with the numbers. You're right that it remains to be seen...XB1 might win. But Kev's post is a joke.
CosmicQueso
Member
What alternate universe were you living in at the time?
Exactly, and the Xbox One not doing that this gen (over PS4) just adds on to my point.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Hi there, CosmicQueso. This is a good post. Very astute perception of the current situation.
I would like to supplement your post with one little added detail: Hardware Bundles have been an increasingly popular way to purchase Video Game Consoles in the U.S. For example, last month in the September Report, over 80% of Hardware unit sales included some form of Packaged or Digital Software tie-in.
Because The NPD Group does not include Software sold as part of a Hardware Bundle in its Packaged Software Report, Packaged Software unit sales have been skewed lower as a result.
Katana_Strikes
Member
A quote for the ages...