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[The Abominable Snowman]

Wow, looks like they should sail past 35M maybe mid-January at the latest. Awesome!

 

[Markoman]

So, 30 million possible Isis soldiers?!?!?.......ok, ok, don't kill me

Congrats Sony

 

[tusken77]

Man... where is that old thread from 2011 or 2012 where people were predicting Sony would be dead by now?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

 

[FunkyPajamas]

So why didn't the Original xbox or Gamecube outsell the Playstation 2?

Yup. It's not just about power. Balance between power/price/first to market/marketing buzz and the occasional crazy market disruption (Wii) seems to be the formula to success. There is also the matter of brand recognition of course, but at this point both MS and Sony are household names.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

Wow, those predictions.

 

[Mahonay]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

Hahah yeah those posts are pretty damn entertaining to read now. Hindsight is a hell of a drug.

 

[CosmicQueso]

What's a bit amusing about this thread is the October NPD thread so full of doom and gloom. Then boom oh hey we are at 30m sold now.

What's a bit amusing about your post is October being a bad month in the US and the PS4 hitting stellar LTD sales numbers worldwide aren't mutually exclusive things.

 

[TalentBurke]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

Wow, the PS3 was not that bad for people to have those predictions.

 

[Heimbeck]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

This made my day.

I agree with this.

The PS4 will do worse than the VITA, they have lost to much brand recognition, exclusives and they have IPs noone gives a shit about besides nerds on the internet. Coupled with no backwards compatibility (due to the abandonment of the Cell), Sony is destined for last place again. Failing all that, the PS4 will be $499-$549 and we will get a repeat of the PS3 but this time it will be much worse.

Quote me in 2 or 3 years. I know when something is about to bomb. Sony is very easy to read, even Patcher can do it.

 

[Garlador]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

I love these eat-crow-worthy threads. They're such a joy to go over.

 

[Bastables]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/11/ps4-sales-officially-pass-30-million/

But, according the arstechnica, "Microsoft showed the better relative year-over-year sales improvement.."

Yeah odd right, first he argues one should not read into data points as indicators for future successes, then spends 2015 fabricating Xboxone sales numbers and uses them to prove Xboxone will have a future success 10-20 years in the future. It's as if he's arguing from a pre held idea and fitting data/evidence to it...

 

[TalentBurke]

They will dominate nextgen again and then Sony will go bankrupt. It's the curse of the 3rd gen....

Only problem with your statement is that the generation you're speaking of will the Sony's 6th generation, the third generation has already passed, Playstation 3.

 

[Lion Heart]

This made my day.

Lol Gez is a good dude but that prediction was awful.

It will be funny when Uncharted 4 has a higher first month sales than Halo 5 in the US of all places. Than you have Gears which no one cares about anymore and Forza which was never big, and you have to ask, which first party do people not give a shit about .

 

[Apathy]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

Threads like these always show how out of touch Gaffers are sometimes, how they should not speculate about the market and specifically how they should never be in charge of heading multinational corporations that deal with entertainment products.

 

[LegendofLex]

Yeah odd right, first he argues one should not read into data points as indicators for future successes, then spends 2015 fabricating Xboxone sales numbers and uses them to prove Xboxone will have a future success 10-20 years in the future. It's as if he's arguing from a pre held idea and fitting data/evidence to it...

He's saying that Xbox would have to keep up this level of growth until 2024 to start outselling PS4 on an annual basis, not that Xbox will outsell PS4 on an annual basis in 2024.

 

[Sesto]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/11/ps4-sales-officially-pass-30-million/

But, according the arstechnica, "Microsoft showed the better relative year-over-year sales improvement.."

damn it's embarassing to read that article, seems like a parody lol. I mean the guy calculates the increase between 2014 and 2015 for both consoles, and assumes the increaserate will exactly be the same for the next 10 year.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Enjoy it while it lasts, Sony.

Next gen should be interesting.

Why is it going to be interesting?

 

[Garlador]

Why is it going to be interesting?

Sega will throw their hat in the console ring again, of course.

 

[Apathy]

He's saying that Xbox would have to keep up this level of growth until 2024 to start outselling PS4 on an annual basis, not that Xbox will outsell PS4 on an annual basis in 2024.

I'm surprised Ars hasn't gone further and said that if the projections continue that by 3020 the Xobox one would be outselling the PS4 by 10,000:1

 

[LegendofLex]

I'm surprised Ars hasn't gone further and said that if the projections continue that by 3020 the Xobox one would be outselling the PS4 by 10,000:1

They'll just keep price cutting to maximize YOY growth!

 

[Mahonay]

Sega will throw their hat in the console ring again, of course.

Sega Re-Genesis.

 

[Cess007]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

I will always love Nekofrog post for this

Edit: For future wall of shame posts, this post was made long before the XBone "reveal". So yeah I was wrong.

Smart fella

 

[Bastables]

He's saying that Xbox would have to keep up this level of growth until 2024 to start outselling PS4 on an annual basis, not that Xbox will outsell PS4 on an annual basis in 2024.

What is this, i don't even.

Oh my god it's not even Kyle Orland, it's one of their UK crew that's decided to use Orland's earlier magic numbers and graphs and continued teasing out shit conclusions.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

I doubt ms will have the weaker console next gen. They have the money to blow on making sure the hardware is key and no silly kinect junk

Oh no it's happening again

 

[LegendofLex]

What is this, i don't even.

From the article: "At current rates of increase, annual Xbox One sales wouldn't catch the PS4 until 2024."

Never is a guarantee made that those rates will continue - Xbox growth could fall, PS4 growth could rise.

If anything it's a massive Microsoft diss to talk about how far out this possibility would be even at current growth rates.

GAF should never make fun of Pachter again.

ha

 

[Jigorath]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

GAF should never make fun of Pachter again.

 

[Sidewinder]

Only problem with your statement is that the generation you're speaking of will the Sony's 6th generation, the third generation has already passed, Playstation 3.

2 gens of domination aka PSX & PS2 followed by 3rd gen fall aka PS3. Counter set to 0 and the PS4 is now the first gen of domination...

 

[Mahonay]

This made my day.

These the same people who are serious about "arrogant Sony is back" whenever they see PS4 sales still doing well. Also see; "No games".

Attaching your own personal feelings towards a specific console company to your industry predictions and insight always leads to hilarity.

 

[joecanada]

Can we at least get to page 10 before we commence the 'PS4hasnogames/I don't get what people are playing on it - diatribe?

Page 10!? High expectations Gaf is evolving! I'm happy with page 1 lol

 

[Freeman]

People have proven it's about power now. Get the most powerful box for the best price and you win. I doubt ms will have the weaker console next gen. They have the money to blow on making sure the hardware is key and no silly kinect junk

Was MS short on cash this gen?

 

[FranXico]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/11/ps4-sales-officially-pass-30-million/

But, according the arstechnica, "Microsoft showed the better relative year-over-year sales improvement.."

From the article:

Even factoring in the Xbox One's improved sales in October, our analysis shows that the Xbox One wouldn't outsell the PS4 on an annual basis before 2024—and even then, there'd still be a total sales gap of around 50 million consoles. If Microsoft can't do something to narrow the ever-widening chasm, and assuming Sony doesn't do something completely crazy, there could be some difficult decisions to make: for Microsoft, for developers, and ultimately for consumers.

I can literally see his tears running down his face as he wrote this.

 

[MrTroubleMaker]

wow that's doing good.

 

[Three]

They'll just keep price cutting to maximize YOY growth!

If we extrapolate the price drop then by 2024 they will start giving hundreds of dollars with every xbox one!

 

[Beefy]

well sure, but it could be argued the same for Xbox this time. Higher price and disastrous pre-launch campaign.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that I wouldn't call a lock on next gen either way, even in regions that can usually go either way. There are always surprises.

Not saying MS can't lead or even "win" next gen. But it would take something crazy to change how they are seen by most Europeans.

 

[Talax]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

I wonder what this guy thinks about Kojima saving the industry every 4 years now:

PC will continue to grow with Valve.

Sony will struggle despite having the best influx of IP's.

The bros will slurp up the Nextbox from Microsoft and buy annual releases.

Nintendo continues to not give a fuck and rack in the cash.

Kojima continues to save the industry every 4 years.

 

[LegendofLex]

If we extrapolate the price drop then by 2024 they will start giving hundreds of dollars with every xbox one!

You don't subscribe to Xbox Live, Xbox Live subscribes to you!

 

[jelly]

Was MS short on cash this gen?

They were infected by the Mattrick, put up good fight but succumbed in the end, lost control of all bodily functions, shit the bed and spewed everywhere.

 

[TrojanBlade]

And make sure it launches around the same time as the next Xbox.

Yep this one is key too. Never delay by 6+ months for launch between your competitor.

By the way PS3 didn't lose as much people make it believe so. Yes maybe in US but not WW. I think globally it outsold X360 by a narrow margin. It just got a lot of negative media for it being priced high. Also a lot of negative from devs for it being hard to develop specially in the beginning years. But in the end it recovered fine.

Any idea on where X1 is compared to these number at this point?

 

[Toki767]

I went to my Best Buy to pick up something and I saw their Black Friday setup. Way more PS4s on sale than Xbox Ones. It seems like they're going to end up running out of the $300 Xbox Ones by virtue of them having a bunch of the Tomb Raider bundles.

 

[Oxn]

Well Im selling off my White PS4. Not because I don't like it, but Ive been getting the auto ejecting bug.

Gamestop will give me $200 trade in credit for it.

Once the Exclusives come I'll need to open up my 20th anniversary edition though.....

 

[Raist]

I went to my Best Buy to pick up something and I saw their Black Friday setup. Way more PS4s on sale than Xbox Ones. It seems like they're going to end up running out of the $300 Xbox Ones by virtue of them having a bunch of the Tomb Raider bundles.

That looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Plague Doctor]

You don't subscribe to Xbox Live, Xbox Live subscribes to you!

Xbox Live subs has now become the only form of currency for SalesGAF. Units sold is an outdated method only used to be broken down for cloth materials.

 

[Mahonay]

Was MS short on cash this gen?

Agree with you, they certainly weren't short on cash being Microsoft and all. Their original priorities for the Xbox One as a console were just very different than what we're seeing today. "All-purpose media/games box", it was not "powerful dedicated gaming console."

Either way the built in hardware seems to be enough for the time being. The lower resolution for a lot of games is the biggest bummer in that category.

 

[FranXico]

Xbox Live subs has now become the only form of currency for SalesGAF. Units sold is an outdated method only used to be broken down for cloth materials.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I went to my Best Buy to pick up something and I saw their Black Friday setup. Way more PS4s on sale than Xbox Ones. It seems like they're going to end up running out of the $300 Xbox Ones by virtue of them having a bunch of the Tomb Raider bundles.

Looks pretty sloppy. Asking for it to fall on customers as they scratch and pull for the systems. The X1 side looks unorganized too.

But yeah, it would be cool if could get an after Black friday shot too.

 

[jelly]

Xbox Live subs has now become the only form of currency for SalesGAF. Units sold is an outdated method only used to be broken down for cloth materials.

I bet MS PR wish they still had MS spacebucks now. Xbox Live revenue this year is 2 billion Microsoft points.

 

[Apathy]

Well Im selling off my White PS4. Not because I don't like it, but Ive been getting the auto ejecting bug.

Gamestop will give me $200 trade in credit for it.

Once the Exclusives come I'll need to open up my 20th anniversary edition though.....

Apparently from what Greg Miller said, that there is a simple fix for that where you just have to tighten a screw. Google it, you might find something

 

[cgcg]

They will dominate nextgen again and then Sony will go bankrupt. It's the curse of the 3rd gen....

I'm guessing MS is still on their first gen since they have never dominated.

 

[Shin-Ra]

Enjoy it while it lasts, Sony.

Next gen should be interesting.

I doubt ms will have the weaker console next gen. They have the money to blow on making sure the hardware is key and no silly kinect junk

This gen won't be long enough for that to happen. PS4 and X1 are already struggling with resolution and fps.

Yeah, 360 died off quick when Perfect Dark launched sub-HD with no AA and wonky framerate and early games like F.E.A.R and Half-Life 2 were severely cut down graphically compared to the config. possible on moderately specced PCs from a year or two earlier.

They should send a thank you to ms. Nice to basically have a gen handed to you.

They've already thanked secret agent Phil, I'm sure.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Xbox Live subs has now become the only form of currency for SalesGAF. Units sold is an outdated method only used to be broken down for cloth materials.

Truth.