Wkd Box Office 12•25-27•15 - Star Wars never changes. 1B+ global BO for new record

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If you want to read some funny in retrospect box office projections for Titanic, someone collected a bunch of quotes out of Variety:

http://www.anlimara.com/dreampage/titanic/review02.html

I like how, 1 month after release, analysts were saying that an eventual $350-400M overseas was looking good. The film's initial overseas run ended up over $1.2B

Jan 21, 1998

The offshore total was due to surpass $150 million Tuesday. After taking in $33 million in December, James Cameron's juggernaut now stands as the first blockbuster to amass $100 million abroad this calendar year.

At this rate, an eventual [international] tally of somewhere between $350 million and $400 million looks to be as good as in the bag.
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kswiston said:
If you want to read some funny in retrospect box office projections for Titanic, someone collected a bunch of quotes out of Variety:

http://www.anlimara.com/dreampage/titanic/review02.html

I like how, 1 month after release, analysts were saying that an eventual $350-400M overseas was looking good. The film's initial overseas run ended up over $1.2B
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TBF who is going to predict "yeah, this movie will basically have infinite legs and run forever."
 
Branduil said:
TBF who is going to predict "yeah, this movie will basically have infinite legs and run forever."
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Their predictions were definitely well reasoned at the time.

EDIT: Star Wars: TFA dropped (an excellent) 40% from its first to second weekend. Titanic ran for 14 frames before it finally had a weekend that was 40% under its initial weekend.
 
If this movie makes 1 billion domestic, or even over 800 million for that matter...I just can't believe it, that is all!!!
 
Might it be worth keeping an eye on how Phantom Menace performed as the next possible benchmark to follow now that we know it's not gonna trace Avatar or Titanic's arcs?
 
Bobby Roberts said:
Might it be worth keeping an eye on how Phantom Menace performed as the next possible benchmark to follow now that we know it's not gonna trace Avatar or Titanic's arcs?
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The Force Awakens would end up with about $1.25B domestic if the same percentage of its run happened after weekend #3 as the TPM. I don't think it will follow that path either.
 
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If it breaks 900m domestic, I wonder if Disney won't make a big push before the Home Video release to try and get past 1b.

Timu said:
We are living in an age where a Star Wars movie will beat Avatar domestically...how is that not fucking crazy???=O
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Fixed. Let's not kid ourselves, The Force Awakens will be #1 Domestic within a week.
 
Timu said:
We are living in an age where a Star Wars movie could beat Avatar domestically...how is that not fucking crazy???=O
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4 of the 6 previous Star Wars movies had a higher domestic attendance than Avatar, so there was precedence. That said, TFA will probably end up with a bigger initial run than the first Star Wars (Obviously it won't beat Star Wars' total attendance as it was re-released 4-5 times). That's the crazy part.
 
Saw it one more time today. Three total, and I think I'm done now until it comes out on bluray.

I just love it :') Queen Rey, Finn, Poe <3 I hope Poe becomes more of "one of the group" for 8 and 9.
 
Leeness said:
Saw it one more time today. Three total, and I think I'm done now until it comes out on bluray.

I just love it :') Queen Rey, Finn, Poe <3 I hope Poe becomes more of "one of the group" for 8 and 9.
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I wish I could see it 3 times in a theater!

I think Poe will be used more in the sequels.
 
DrForester said:
If it breaks 900m domestic, I wonder if Disney won't make a big push before the Home Video release to try and get past 1b.



Fixed. Let's not kid ourselves, The Force Awakens will be #1 Domestic within a week.
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Exclusive looks at episode VIII and Rogue One, perhaps extra scenes for VII to try and squeeze just a bit more. But I don't see $100m more by any stretch.
 
P.s. Rth estimates saturday as 34.5-35 mil

The 100 mil dream is almost dead unless it can pull 30 mil out of its hat tomorrow

So that puts the cume around $720 mil... at the current rate... Avatar's fall will probably be later in the week
 
DopeyFish said:
P.s. Rth estimates saturday as 34.5-35 mil

The 100 mil dream is almost dead unless it can pull 30 mil out of its hat tomorrow
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Tomorrow will be $21-22M at best off of a 35M Saturday. If Friday + Saturday are $70M, we're much more likely to get a weekend under $90M than we are one over #100M. Typical Sunday drop off for this weekend is 40-50%.

Avatar had by far the best Sunday hold out of films that weren't earning <$1M back on this weekend in 2009. Even with that Sunday hold we are looking at $23.5M with a $35M Friday. TFA has not had a Sunday hold anywhere close to Avatar's so far.

I think that $91-92M is what you'll see as a weekend estimate 12 hours from now if Rth is accurate. Avatar will hold its record until Tuesday or Wednesday.
 
DopeyFish said:
P.s. Rth estimates saturday as 34.5-35 mil

The 100 mil dream is almost dead unless it can pull 30 mil out of its hat tomorrow

So that puts the cume around $720 mil... at the current rate... Avatar's fall will probably be later in the week
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Link for RTH pls?
 
Branduil said:
I don't know if a theatrical re-release will do much... unless it's an extended cut of the film.
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A theatrical re-release putting the film back in IMAX 3D for a limited time along with "an exclusive 8 minute preview of Episode 8" would get asses in seats.
 
duckroll said:
A theatrical re-release putting the film back in IMAX 3D for a limited time along with "an exclusive 8 minute preview of Episode 8" would get asses in seats.
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They won't do 8 minutes of Episode 8 in the spring. They aren't going to step on Rogue One. Anything new attached will be Rogue One focused.
 
duckroll said:
A theatrical re-release putting the film back in IMAX 3D for a limited time along with "an exclusive 8 minute preview of Episode 8" would get asses in seats.
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SHIT. I just got back from my 4th viewing and said. I'm done until the Blu Ray. But hell if they do that with an extended scene of Luke and Rey. I'll be there.
 
duckroll said:
A theatrical re-release putting the film back in IMAX 3D for a limited time along with "an exclusive 8 minute preview of Episode 8" would get asses in seats.
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I mean, I agree that would have worked gangbusters 1, 2 decades ago... but any preview is almost instantly going to end up on the internet now.
 
Cheebo said:
They won't do 8 minutes of Episode 8 in the spring. They aren't going to step on Rogue One. Anything new attached will be Rogue One focused.
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I wasn't thinking of this year at all. I think Disney is happy with this year's takings. I was thinking of Spring... 2017.
 
If they're making any changes to the movie itself, we're not going to know about them until we see it in the theater.

Also, it's gonna have to be at the top of the month if they don't wanna cannibalize Jungle Book's numbers.
 
Branduil said:
I mean, I agree that would have worked gangbusters 1, 2 decades ago... but any preview is almost instantly going to end up on the internet now.
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Nah, you're looking at it the wrong way. The people who would be content watching such a preview via bootleg on Youtube or whatever aren't the ones who would be excited to watch the movie again in IMAX 3D anyway. We're talking about a select smaller audience who are very dedicated who want to see the movie on a large screen format which even the blu-ray won't provide. These people would be interested in a re-release, but a re-release with a preview would maximize this entire audience segment AND push many of their friends and family to go along too just for the extra.
 
duckroll said:
A theatrical re-release putting the film back in IMAX 3D for a limited time along with "an exclusive 8 minute preview of Episode 8" would get asses in seats.
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Avatar did that and it amounted to $10M domestic. Star Wars fans are a more die-hard breed, but I doubt even they would get a re-release of a film that was just in theatres to more than an additional $30M or so. The hypothetical 8 minute Ep VIII preview would be leaked before that first day was finished.

Jurassic World made $8-10M doing the same thing (minus the preview).
 
kswiston said:
Avatar did that and it amounted to $10M domestic. Star Wars fans are a more die-hard breed, but I doubt even they would get a re-release of a film that was just in theatres to more than an additional $30M or so. The hypothetical 8 minute Ep VIII preview would be leaked before that first day was finished.

Jurassic World made $8-10M doing the same thing (minus the preview).
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Hey 30 million might be enough to push it to 1B. :P

Edit: Also, keep in mind that if this were a Spring 2017 release, it would be the start of the heaviest portion of the marketing cycle for Ep8 itself, due in the Summer. That's something we haven't seen with previous re-releases either.
 
3N16MA said:
Maybe one of the mods can update the the next BO thread title when that happens. It would be better if the discussion was kept in the weekly threads if possible.
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I don't know, that's pretty big news. Don't see why it wouldn't deserve a thread. Same for if it passes Titanic WW.
 
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