Microsoft Releasing Exclusive Games on PC Is Great for Xbox Owners
- Thread starter dancrane212
- Start date
ethomaz
Banned
So Uncharted?
He was clear "only pure exclusives that are not either ports or remakes and couldn't be played anywhere else. IIRC"
And he forgot to add The Order.
Rise of the Tomb Raider was exclusive in 2015.
wapplew
Member
And everyone want forget about The Order 1886.
SensibleSucker
Member
It;s definitely great for gamers, but also good for MS.
MS will make far more money by gambling that they lose a percentage of potential Xbone purchasers, say 15%.
Let's say Xbone's lifetime sales ends up somewhere like 80m units. Just basing it on 360 lifetime and the fact they continue to outpace the 360, sales-wise.
15% of that is 12m, so 12m sales lost.
As they don't actually make profit on any Xbone sold, they don't actually lose anything there.
They may lose money from Live subs and associated movie rentals etc.
Say a Live sub nets them £35 on average each year (some higher, some lower - CDKeys etc.).
That's £420m each year. Give this gen 4 more years? Call it £1.6bn
Chuck in another £500m from lost direct purchases through the store.
So call it £2.1bn lost. Just a stab in the dark, but there we go.
Now, to make that back in games revenue, let's say that an average PC game costs £30.
£2.1bn divided by £30 = 70m.
So on this truly rough arse basis, they'd have to sell 70m games at £30 each to bring the lost revenue.
70m x 4 years = 17.5m games each year
Steam made almost £2bn last year alone. Now, MS through W10 store won't get anywhere near that, but looking at individual games through Steam last year, you can see why MS wants to expand their user base.
Take a moderate game like Mad Max. Not a massive financial success by any means. I still think it sold around 650k copies on Steam last year.
So, to get to 17.5n sales, they'd need around 27 Mad Max level games. That's 7 (rounded up!) Mad Max level games each year over 4 years of this gen.
Now, we know MM wasn't a great seller overall, so I'm confident they could get some games to sell far more on W10 than MM did on Steam. I'm going out and saying that MS would want to see 4/5 games selling over 1m copies on W10 year each to make up the lost £2.1bn revenue.
That's easily doable. Halo 5, Gear UE, Forza 6 and ROTR all sold over 1m copies each over Xmas 2015 alone. If an equivalent of those 4 sold 1m each year for 4 years, that'd reach 16m sales alone, against a target on 17.5m.
Add to that the increased migration of users to W10, plus a small bump in other W10 store apps/games through more browsers to the store = more added revenue.
Also, if they did do cross/remote play on xbone games via W10 phone like Sony does for PS4, that;s a (probably small) bump ion W10 phone sales too.
Also, for every future PC gamer that doesn't get an Xbone but wants to play these cross-platform games, they'll need to get a pretty meaty rig (see specs for Quantum Break). The OS of most of these rigs going forwards? W10.
All told, MS can easily make more money from doing this to cover the loss of Xbone sales and Xbox live subs.
That said, I prefer the shorter equation.
More games sold on MS platforms = More MS revenue from games = MS taking more risks with new IPs = More MS platform games made = Better MS games = More games for me to play.
EDIT: Bloody hell. Sorry about that.
MS will make far more money by gambling that they lose a percentage of potential Xbone purchasers, say 15%.
Let's say Xbone's lifetime sales ends up somewhere like 80m units. Just basing it on 360 lifetime and the fact they continue to outpace the 360, sales-wise.
15% of that is 12m, so 12m sales lost.
As they don't actually make profit on any Xbone sold, they don't actually lose anything there.
They may lose money from Live subs and associated movie rentals etc.
Say a Live sub nets them £35 on average each year (some higher, some lower - CDKeys etc.).
That's £420m each year. Give this gen 4 more years? Call it £1.6bn
Chuck in another £500m from lost direct purchases through the store.
So call it £2.1bn lost. Just a stab in the dark, but there we go.
Now, to make that back in games revenue, let's say that an average PC game costs £30.
£2.1bn divided by £30 = 70m.
So on this truly rough arse basis, they'd have to sell 70m games at £30 each to bring the lost revenue.
70m x 4 years = 17.5m games each year
Steam made almost £2bn last year alone. Now, MS through W10 store won't get anywhere near that, but looking at individual games through Steam last year, you can see why MS wants to expand their user base.
Take a moderate game like Mad Max. Not a massive financial success by any means. I still think it sold around 650k copies on Steam last year.
So, to get to 17.5n sales, they'd need around 27 Mad Max level games. That's 7 (rounded up!) Mad Max level games each year over 4 years of this gen.
Now, we know MM wasn't a great seller overall, so I'm confident they could get some games to sell far more on W10 than MM did on Steam. I'm going out and saying that MS would want to see 4/5 games selling over 1m copies on W10 year each to make up the lost £2.1bn revenue.
That's easily doable. Halo 5, Gear UE, Forza 6 and ROTR all sold over 1m copies each over Xmas 2015 alone. If an equivalent of those 4 sold 1m each year for 4 years, that'd reach 16m sales alone, against a target on 17.5m.
Add to that the increased migration of users to W10, plus a small bump in other W10 store apps/games through more browsers to the store = more added revenue.
Also, if they did do cross/remote play on xbone games via W10 phone like Sony does for PS4, that;s a (probably small) bump ion W10 phone sales too.
Also, for every future PC gamer that doesn't get an Xbone but wants to play these cross-platform games, they'll need to get a pretty meaty rig (see specs for Quantum Break). The OS of most of these rigs going forwards? W10.
All told, MS can easily make more money from doing this to cover the loss of Xbone sales and Xbox live subs.
That said, I prefer the shorter equation.
More games sold on MS platforms = More MS revenue from games = MS taking more risks with new IPs = More MS platform games made = Better MS games = More games for me to play.
EDIT: Bloody hell. Sorry about that.
That is a remake, can I put God of War 3 and Uncharted trylogy there as well? I meant games that can't be played anywhere else.
Ghost Slayer
Member
That's a remaster
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Remaster remakes that change nothing are not new games. Especially a game like Gears Ultimate that changed nothing in the actual game. It called a remake, but all they did was make the same game prettier.
ethomaz
Banned
You can add The Order: 1886
You could play it on 360. And yeah, I forgot The Order.
This math is very, very flawed.
ethomaz
Banned
You can play the best version in terms of gameplay on 360.
Why would they do that? It's not like they need new products to sell another product (Xbox One). If they want Windows Store to succeed they should focus on utilizing known IP's such as Gears of War, Halo, Forza and Fable.
//DEVIL//
Member
This news confirm one thing and one thing only. The best gaming machine is a pc regardless of how powerful or weak ur pc is . As long as you play the game even on lower settings than console.
The only reason I say this because it seems pc is the only console that is getting most of the ps4 and xbox one exclusives . If want to play shenmue 3 Or I want to play killer instinct ? I don't have the buy 2 consoles. I have to buy pc.
Granted . Ps4 still hold some value as many Japanese games or Sony exclusives not coming to pc while most if not all Xbox games are coming to Oc. Which is why people wonder what's the point of having an xbox if u have any semi decent pc console.
I means my computer isn't that great. A 2k series i7 and 290x Sri video card and I am running most of my games on max on a full hd screen. And my computer is like 3 years old if not more .
You don't really have to buy expensive shit to get a good gaming system
My only problem here is I don't feel sense of owning ship when I buy a digital game. I like to buy physical games . I am not lazy to swap a game from my console but I like the fact that I have all my games in front of me as a collector . I still have my Super Nintendo and it's games too.
The only reason I say this because it seems pc is the only console that is getting most of the ps4 and xbox one exclusives . If want to play shenmue 3 Or I want to play killer instinct ? I don't have the buy 2 consoles. I have to buy pc.
Granted . Ps4 still hold some value as many Japanese games or Sony exclusives not coming to pc while most if not all Xbox games are coming to Oc. Which is why people wonder what's the point of having an xbox if u have any semi decent pc console.
I means my computer isn't that great. A 2k series i7 and 290x Sri video card and I am running most of my games on max on a full hd screen. And my computer is like 3 years old if not more .
You don't really have to buy expensive shit to get a good gaming system
My only problem here is I don't feel sense of owning ship when I buy a digital game. I like to buy physical games . I am not lazy to swap a game from my console but I like the fact that I have all my games in front of me as a collector . I still have my Super Nintendo and it's games too.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
A remake? Plus it's going to PC.
SensibleSucker
Member
Of course, but in all likelihood, only in terms of underestimating the increased revenue MS will get from this change of tack. Much of that was total stab in the dark stuff. I'd love to get your take on a model though. See what others think.
Yes they do, they totally do. Since they sell Xbox games, every one they sell, MS gets Royalty. MS will use this to show them they can sell more.
I mean, you seem to think the only money MS makes off counsels is Live subscriptions. That's obviously and very much not true.
ethomaz
Banned
They already know they can sell more on PS4.
3rd games are selling better on PS4 than PC or Xbone.
SensibleSucker
Member
Because Phil Spencer is on record as saying he wants to push new IP and expanding the user base for them is a safety net against poor sales.
They'll certainly use teh tent-poles to generate interest in Windows Store, but the increases in revenue will allow them to expand into new IP.
So when all of these W10 games are released on Hololens (because they will be Universal Windows Apps) and if you bought it on Xbox One and you have it on PC and then have it on Hololens...everyone is going to be pissed that the XBO and PC are being devalued?
Sorry but there's more incentive to go into MS ecosystem than to leave it. Buy once and get everywhere is coming. That's the freaking future guys. Xbox has more than just gaming...sorry but that TV TV TV stuff makes sense as you are in front of your TV. I'm sure they are going to improve that part (DVR for cable...CMON) but they are also going to improve the gaming experience for the TV. Just as they are going to improve the gaming experience for the PC (I don't see any reason why they can't make a FPS counter in the Xbox app so people don't have to rely on Fraps).
Also...if you were going to buy Quantum Break already, no reason to not preorder digital on XBO store (unless you are hell bent on physical) and get 2 copies of the same game. Shoot, you may like what they do with the next version of Xbox for your TV and guess what, that game will most likely follow you (as we all know it will most likely be W10 based so compatibility will be no issue).
These negatives I see are all positives in my eyes. Two for 1. Shit, sign me up. With them probably announcing a smaller version of the XBO soon...bringing your games on the go (because gaming PCs aren't really portable) will be easier. There's not a better time to have a XBO in my opinion.
Sorry but there's more incentive to go into MS ecosystem than to leave it. Buy once and get everywhere is coming. That's the freaking future guys. Xbox has more than just gaming...sorry but that TV TV TV stuff makes sense as you are in front of your TV. I'm sure they are going to improve that part (DVR for cable...CMON) but they are also going to improve the gaming experience for the TV. Just as they are going to improve the gaming experience for the PC (I don't see any reason why they can't make a FPS counter in the Xbox app so people don't have to rely on Fraps).
Also...if you were going to buy Quantum Break already, no reason to not preorder digital on XBO store (unless you are hell bent on physical) and get 2 copies of the same game. Shoot, you may like what they do with the next version of Xbox for your TV and guess what, that game will most likely follow you (as we all know it will most likely be W10 based so compatibility will be no issue).
These negatives I see are all positives in my eyes. Two for 1. Shit, sign me up. With them probably announcing a smaller version of the XBO soon...bringing your games on the go (because gaming PCs aren't really portable) will be easier. There's not a better time to have a XBO in my opinion.
therealbigrich
Member
I know a lot of ppl on gaf said they wouldn't be buying a X1 because of losing exclusives I just think MS feel a lot of ppl weren't going to be buying a X1 either way. seeing the NPD its hard to conclude that exclusives move consoles
SensibleSucker
Member
Not at all and i deliberately omitted those (apart from a 500m figure for rentals/sales etc. ).
You could chuck in all the rentals/sales of indies etc, which would significantly increase the number of potentially lost revenue. However, transferring a chunk of those lost sales of indies etc and rentals from Xbox Live to W10 in future years would mitigate those losses.
MS seems to be trying to drag more and more into the Windows 10 store, so more indies etc. are likely to appear there too as MS presses ahead with converging everything into one store front.
Either way, it's all just me clutching at numbers. MS have much better calculators than I do and they are telling them that doing this will make them moolah.
wapplew
Member
I don't understand, how they sell Xbox games? Through cross buy?
How can third part sell more PC version if they put them in MS store?
You do know what MS makes money on ALL games sold on the XBO, right?
And I already said they they are doing this. It has little to do with how much additional money these games will make across the board.
SensibleSucker
Member
Yep. As you say, if they end up with more games on the W10 store too (which I believe they want to happen) they'll make even more.
They'll only make more money this way.
But getting back to the OP, i think it;s good news for me as an Xbone owner. I'm going to get more games as a result of this because MS will be even more loaded than they are now, with a bigger pool of potential buyers for their games.
No, you'll just be getting a different type of ecosystem. One with a divided* multiplayer community.
*KB/M and controller.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Nice to see it make a comeback.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
When will see all these Hololens games...10 years from now? That E3 presentation was as fake as Milo. It's an enterprise tool for the foreseeable future. As far as staying in the ecosystem yeah that's all true. For someone not already in the ecosystem already there is very little incentive to join now.
This is very unlikely. The XBO's relative failure to achieve MS's expectations has done more damage to their game production pipeline then this is even going to reverse, let alone expand.
When it releases to consumers...as we know is going to happen. They aren't just making it for just enterprise (they are starting out there...and with developers...as they should). Even so, when it does release, do you want it to release with nothing or already have applications that you already have? Seems like a no brainer. You can already stream Xbox One games on it. No reason why you couldn't play UWP games on it out of the box (besides graphical fidelity).
Flintty
Member
Phil 'The Man' Spencer said:
The whole paragraph is entirely reasonable. Ultimately, they saw there was more money to be made so they changed their mind. I like it.
Black Mantis
Member
How so? They still have a lot of upcoming titles for this year. Until we reach E3 and other shows later this year, that show their 2017 and beyond slate, there's no way any of us can state it's done any damage to their production pipeline.
Air will always be trendy for Microsoft.
Personally I really enjoy this one from Phil Spencer:
1st Jul, 2015 - videogamer.com
It's nice to want things.
therealbigrich
Member
Do we know what they expectations were to this point. I'm sure it just looks bad cause ps4 sold so well but if the X1 is tracking as well ps3/360 I don't think its hat bad .
It's not bad, it's just bad in comparison to PS4...especially during a time when people thought console gaming was dying. LOL. People think it's all gloom and doom for MS and Xbox One.
XBO has massively underperformed MS's expectations.
Of the games we know to be crossplay, what ones actually pose this problem?
Phenomenal Flea
Member
Absolutely. I love to have spent 500 to play @900p , and online games without crossplay with other platforms
That's a really reasonable answer, right there. I agree that both have their place. I can understand how Xbox One owners are lamenting the lost an exclusive, though.
It is that bad because there is no Kinect coming to give the Xbox One second life. As time passes the Xbox One will fall further and further behind the 360/PS3 curve. We already seen a huge YoY decline in the January NPD for the Xbox One. The Sony route of free online play and lots of exclusives that rescued the PS3 is also out the window. I see this as Microsoft throwing in the towel on the Xbox One.
Can you get a quote from MS on that or are we just making assumptions based off of data?
therealbigrich
Member
sorry I don't see it that way. I would say wii u is something that has under performed and even then I don't think it did that bad . other things like steam machines probably sold way worse
They are going to sell ALOT more software now that they would have had they stayed their current course.
Even if they sold 50% more Xbox ones at Sony's expense, there software sales potential wouldn't be this high.
How can you judge their pipeline?... They don't seem to working on fewer first party games than usual. Actually they seem more active on that front. This added sales potential should just provide more incentive to invest in first party...
FonkyByNature
Member
I don't know why this thread has almost 30 pages full of unecessary drama.
I mean i'm happy with what Microsoft are doing. I always said that Microsoft have a gold mine with Windows gaming and Xbox if they connect both in a way that makes sense. This is where they are going and i believe this is where the future is going.
I mean i'm happy with what Microsoft are doing. I always said that Microsoft have a gold mine with Windows gaming and Xbox if they connect both in a way that makes sense. This is where they are going and i believe this is where the future is going.
wapplew
Member
Going by their PR, they seems to be very happy, Halo5 revenue, MAU, 1 billion hour, record breaking everywhere.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
It's all about expectations, Microsoft expected growth and to be way bigger then the 360 was, maybe a PS1 to PS2 situation.
I mean just take a look at this: http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/05/24/microsoft-over-1-billion-next-gen-consoles-will-be-sold
Not having crossplay also divides MP communities.