Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?

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reelbigtink said:
I understand that but conservatives show up in droves to vote nationwide and liberals are being unnecessarily split on Bernie and Hillary. It's a hard sell, getting the Bernie folks (whom I support) to pick up the torch for Hillary for whatever reason. I'm definitely doing it, even though, like you said, my vote doesn't really count.
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Again you are overestimating the unity of republicans and underestimating the amount of Bernie supporter who are going to vote for Hillary in the GE.
 
Korigama said:
The Republican nomination? Yeah.

The general election? If one's willing to ignore the fact that winning without the women and minority vote is mathematically impossible, and honestly believes that those groups would actually sit the election out for whatever reason, then perhaps such a person would have the delusion that he could.
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He was just bragging about most of his voters being women in the last primary (iirc)
 
My faith in the voters diminishes each time he knocks off another candidate. So I don't know what to expect. I really hope he doesn't win anything.
 
I think so. The democrat base has become more divided than in previous elections, and trump attracts the lowest common denomitor.
 
I think he has very a good chance of winning. If hillary or bernie voters stay home because their perspective candidate doesn't win of course, I dont see how he wouldn't win in that situation. I just don't see republicans not voting for the republican candidate because of personal misgivings about Trump or any other [R] candidate.
 
If there's anything I've learned over the years it's to never underestimate the utter stupidity of the human race.

So yes.
 
There is little chance he doesn't win the nomination. If he wins the white house, the DNC should be nuked too. And we'll just need to start over with a new political system.

And the US can have fun while figuring that out because I'll be doing what I can to get the fuck out of here.
 
Although it is scary, I think he has a shot of winning. People don't really care about the crazy stuff he says. They just love that he speaks his mind instead of hiding behind his real beliefs like most politicians. There are a lot of people in America just like him but they mostly keep their beliefs behind closed doors.
 
Trump got 44% of the latino vote in Nevada tonight. think about this.

We are all fucked. this guy is going to take the presidency.
 
Always a chance. Hillary Clinton could turn out to be a lizard person or Trump could turn out to be Jesus in disguise.

Still, Trump winning the General seems like a long shot.
 
Kibbles said:
He was just bragging about most of his voters being women in the last primary (iirc)
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For this to amount to anything, it would require the belief that the overwhelming majority of women voting in the general election, and not just the ones who are white, would actually vote Republican.
 
bruce-wayne-declares-war-in-new-batman-vs-superman-dawn-of-justice-clip-bruce-alfred-806501.jpg
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"He has the power to wipe out the entire human race. If we believe there is even a one percent chance that he is our enemy, we have to take it as an absolute certainty."
 
The demographics make it hard. I don't see how he could ever get enough latino vote to win a general. The electoral math would have to be turned on its head.

You guys see 30% of GOP voters going apeshit for the guy and mistake that for some kind of broad appeal or broad energy. It's not going to be so simple in a general.
 
Well, okay, two things worry me. Disaffected liberals do worry me. But I do think Trump has one chance and its this:

Voter turnout in the US is typically terrible. He can overcome alienating every minority in the country if he causes angry white people to turn out in record numbers.
 
CrazyDude said:
This is nothing compared to 2008.
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Explain then. The mid term elections were telling of an electorate becoming more apathetic and tired of business as usual candidates on the democratic side. Where as in 08 people who backed Hillary undoubtedly came to back Obama. If Hillary won the nom, then Obama supporters would largely do the same. This time around, that's not so certain.
 
I think it's more the Republican field being utterly terrible as the reason for him getting this far. Can't see him winning the general.. right America?
 
The Technomancer said:
Well, okay, two things worry me. Disaffected liberals do worry me. But I do think Trump has one chance and its this:

Voter turnout in the US is typically terrible. He can overcome alienating every minority in the country if he causes angry white people to turn out in record numbers.
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This is pretty much what I'm concerned about.
 
A thing I keep forgetting, which actually puts me at ease now that I think about it, is that Hillary and Trump have to debate one another and also vet some VPs. I trust Hillary to get that done and maybe even expose Trump enough to unite the liberal base and maybe fracture the GOP enough to take the GE.
 
Massive Duck said:
You have a lot more faith in the country than it's earned.
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It's not even that much faith, is the thing.

If everyone who actually ever posted/tweeted/facebooked/tumblr'd something along the lines of "shut up you guys, he might win" actually fucking voted then it wouldn't even be close.

"he might win" sounds an awful lot to me like "I'm not planning on doing shit about it when roll call gets to my name."
 
He stands a good chance if he wins the GOP nomination. Voter turnouts at the primaries have been impressive on the Republican side of things, while the Democrats have seen less than stellar numbers.

Trump has alienated a great many voters, but so has Hillary Clinton. I don't think Hillary has shown anything to suggest she'd do better in the debates against Trump than the other GOP potentials have, and those are more important than ever.

The big question though in my mind is whether or not Trump can win the GOP nomination. It all depends on whether or not the GOP establishment can rally behind Rubio before time runs out. So far it seems like they won't, but things can change quickly. The problem is that Cruz is very unlikely to drop out anytime soon, and while he isn't likely to win, he's splitting the 2nd place vote. The longer that stands, the more likely a Trump victory becomes.
 
Both the Republicans and the Democrats seem to be facing major schisms within their party. I suppose the issue is largely about how many pro-establishment or anti-establishment voters will turn out to vote for their party's nominee. Will Christian evangelicals that love Cruz end up voting for Trump? Will socialist Sanders fans put aside their ideals to vote for Hilary? Exactly how bitter and spiteful will members of these groups be when their chosen candidate doesn't win?
 
Bobby Roberts said:
It's not even that much faith, is the thing.

If everyone who actually ever posted/tweeted/facebooked/tumblr'd something along the lines of "shut up you guys, he might win" actually fucking voted then it wouldn't even be close.

"he might win" sounds an awful lot to me like "I'm not planning on doing shit about it when roll call gets to my name."
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Honestly, it just sounds like you're enjoying insulting anyone who entertains the possibility of Trump pulling this out.

Undoubtedly there are some people who won't vote, but do you really think it's impossible? There's a lot of hate and ignorance out there.
 
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