• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm

Status
Not open for further replies.
Anything less than 20% will give him a slight boost. If he can get within 15% he'll get a lot of positive media spin, mostly because it will suggest that most of the super Tuesday polls are badly overestimating Hillary's support.

If the polls are right, he's gonna get crushed. Hopefully he'll surprise some people. I've got my fingers crossed.

My main hope is that Hillary's supporters might be a little complacent because it looks like an easy win. But their's also a good chance that Sanders voters in SC are too disheartened to bother showing up.
 
Krowley said:
Anything less than 20% will give him a slight boost. If he can get within 15% he'll get a lot of positive media spin, mostly because it will suggest that most of the super Tuesday polls are badly overestimating Hillary's support.

If the polls are right, he's gonna get crushed. Hopefully he'll surprise some people. I've got my fingers crossed.

My main hope is that Hillary's supporters might be a little complacent because it looks like an easy win. But their's also a good chance that Sanders voters in SC are too disheartened to bother showing up.
Click to expand...

The issue with Hillary voters being too complacent to turn out is that Hillary voters are far and away the most likely demographics to turn out. Women, older voters and people of color (especially in the south) turn out like clockwork. Early voting is up over 2008, and of that 76% comes from AA voters. MSNBC was at a polling location that went Obama by 71% last time. So far, 300 people have voted. They said nearly everyone they asked said they voted for Hillary. They found 2 who voted for Bernie, though. A mother and daughter. While I disagree with their rationale, I was impressed by the young woman's case for Bernie. Even the two of them, though, said Hillary will be the nominee.
 
adam387 said:
The issue with Hillary voters being too complacent to turn out is that Hillary voters are far and away the most likely demographics to turn out. Women, older voters and people of color (especially in the south) turn out like clockwork. Early voting is up over 2008, and of that 76% comes from AA voters. MSNBC was at a polling location that went Obama by 71% last time. So far, 300 people have voted. They said nearly everyone they asked said they voted for Hillary. They found 2 who voted for Bernie, though. A mother and daughter. While I disagree with their rationale, I was impressed by the young woman's case for Bernie. Even the two of them, though, said Hillary will be the nominee.
Click to expand...

Oh definitely. No doubt she has big advantages in a low turnout situation, at least according to conventional wisdom. But I've gotta hold on to my little theory for now anyway.
 
Krowley said:
Anything less than 20% will give him a slight boost. If he can get within 15% he'll get a lot of positive media spin, mostly because it will suggest that most of the super Tuesday polls are badly overestimating Hillary's support.
Click to expand...

I agree with these numbers.

<20% - So you're telling me there's a chance
<15% - We've got a race on our hands
<10% - Hillary collapsing

<0% - We've nuked them

maxresdefault.jpg
Click to expand...
 
exmachina64 said:
The president doesn't create jobs; in cooperation with Congress, he attempts to create economic conditions favorable for job creation.

Trump's stated policies won't create jobs or make companies in-source.

For reference, here are some of his policies:
1. Bring China to the bargaining table by immediately declaring it a currency mainpulator.
2. Force China to uphold intellectual property laws.
3. Put an end to China's illegal export subsidies and lax labor and environmental standards.
4. Mandate a 15% tax for outsourcing jobs.
5. Place a 45% tariff on Chinese exports to the United states.
6. Rejects the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
7. Impose a 35% import tax on Mexican goods.
8. Impose a 20% tax on all imported goods.

Source.

In practice, all these actions will do are increase barriers to trade and raise the cost of goods in the United States. Will Trump's Republican Congress pass a raise in the minimum wage to counter this? In my opinion, these policies encourage autarky. While this might be popular with low-skill, low-wage and industrial workers, these policies actually hurt the overall economy and large companies.

I know there's a strong anti-corporate sentiment on GAF, but the companies that have employed tens of thousands of workers in the post-war economy are export-driven. Now you may say, "Fuck Ford/Apple/Microsoft/Google/IBM/Boeing/Airbus/GlaxoSmithKline/Carrier/etc.!"; however, these companies and suppliers, employees, and consumers are all adversely affected by the policies Trump has outlined.

We joke on GAF, but these policies actually would lead to higher unemployment and inflation. Trump's policies may be populist, but populism isn't necessarily good for the economy.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised no one hit him on this a lot. If you look at some of the things he talks a lot of it really doesn't help the little man at all and is regressive. Trump is just pure cult personality.
 
Krowley said:
Oh definitely. No doubt she has big advantages in a low turnout situation, at least according to conventional wisdom. But I've gotta hold on to my little theory for now anyway.
Click to expand...

No worries. I wasn't trying to attack your theory, just thinking through things.

BanGy.nz said:
Bernie is in Texas right now so I'm guessing his internals polls must look exactly like everyone else's.
Click to expand...

Well, he's not in any state that has a substantial AA (or non white) population. At this point, he's only focusing on Oklahoma, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Colorad on Super Tuesday. I think his visit to Texas is to appease Austin and try to keep it under 30 there too.
 
Iolo said:
#stoptheviolence
Click to expand...

"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

-Hilary Rodham Clinton talking about landing in Columbia, South Carolina.
 
Grover Cleveland said:
"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

-Hilary Rodham Clinton talking about landing in Columbia, South Carolina.
Click to expand...

It all makes sense now!
 
The best thing about South Carolina and the other southern primaries was the food. All types of stuff I had never had before like red beans & rice, gumbo. And the cheesiest, most unhealthy macaroni and cheese I've ever tasted. But it was amazing.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
The best thing about South Carolina and the other southern primaries was the food. All types of stuff I had never had before like red beans & rice, gumbo. And the cheesiest, most unhealthy macaroni and cheese I've ever tasted. But it was amazing.
Click to expand...

We might not live long in the south, but we die happy, with arteries that are clogged with delicious, delicious grease.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
The best thing about South Carolina and the other southern primaries was the food. All types of stuff I had never had before like red beans & rice, gumbo. And the cheesiest, most unhealthy macaroni and cheese I've ever tasted. But it was amazing.
Click to expand...

You will never get better mac and cheese than what you get down here.

It's why they call it "comfort food".
 
Some early exit numbers:

AA make up 6 in 10 voters, up from 2008 where it was 55%.

Moderates make up 4 in 10 voters.

7 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue, only 2 in 10 want more liberal policies. Among AA 9 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue.

Hillary is seen as more honest than Bernie, 7 out of 10 as opposed to 6 out of 10 for him.

8 out of 10 want someone with political experience to win the presidency.

Voters under 30 account for 1 in 10 voters in the SC Primary.
 
adam387 said:
Some early exit numbers:

AA make up 6 in 10 voters, up from 2008 where it was 55%.

Moderates make up 4 in 10 voters.

7 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue, only 2 in 10 want more liberal policies. Among AA 9 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue.

Hillary is seen as more honest than Bernie, 7 out of 10 as opposed to 6 out of 10 for him.

8 out of 10 want someone with political experience to win the presidency.

Voters under 30 account for 1 in 10 voters in the SC Primary.
Click to expand...

I feel like I'm getting punked
 
Kyosaiga said:
You mean to tell me that Bernie's views don't align with the majority of Democrats?!

:O
Click to expand...

I know, right?

The most damning number is that only 2 out of 10 want more liberal policies. Hillary hugging Obama was so damn smart. She knows how to read an electorate, and it shows. Politics is local. She gets that in a way I don't think Bernie does.
 
adam387 said:
Some early exit numbers:

AA make up 6 in 10 voters, up from 2008 where it was 55%.

Moderates make up 4 in 10 voters.

7 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue, only 2 in 10 want more liberal policies. Among AA 9 out of 10 want Obama's policies to continue.

Hillary is seen as more honest than Bernie, 7 out of 10 as opposed to 6 out of 10 for him.

8 out of 10 want someone with political experience to win the presidency.

Voters under 30 account for 1 in 10 voters in the SC Primary.
Click to expand...

We all knew that Bernie was toast in SC, but those numbers are even more terrible for Bernie than I ever thought. It wouldn't even surprise me much if the margin of Hillary's win ends up being as much as 30 points.

I'm convinced that most people aren't looking for revolution right now, other than the young, white liberals that make up Bernie's base (and who are notorious for not voting). When you have 70-90% of a population effectively supporting the equivalent of a third Obama term (which I do enthusiastically, I might add), Bernie was doomed from the start.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Monarch: Legacy of Monsters | Season 2 Official Teaser | Feb 27
4
117
AJUMP23 replied
South Park: Season 27 Teaser
2 3 4 5
235
7K
kevboard replied
The Artful Dodger | S2 Official Trailer | Hulu | Feb 10
3
184
mitch1971 replied
The White House shares a render of the UFC event on the south lawn
2
61
1K
DeepEnigma replied
What's really happening in places like Primm, Nevada, or what is the story of the iconic Breezewood, Pennsylvania, and its possible decline?
Social 
6
436
TDiddyLive replied
Top Bottom