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The South Carolina Primary & Nevada Caucuses |Feb 20, 23, 27| Continuing The Calm

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Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
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There isn't any smug confidence when it comes to Hillary and her chances of winning. The confidence comes from months and months of polling data and knowing how the American electorate think and vote.
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...

I mean, I think people have tried to be honest and straightforward with why they think this is a tipping point. The math doesn't really work out in Bernie's favor unless he accomplishes some kind of rout that no polling data suggests that he can. Theoretically its possible, but it requires a major upset that's not being telegraphed anywhere.
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...
You're misreading people. This isn't smug confidence. This is reading the polls and realizing what's about to happen, as SC is showing the polls aren't off.

This is raw realism.
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...
It's not smug confidence, dude. It's evidence-based assurance.
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...

I don't know aren't we supposed to be the side that leans more on scientific evidence. Pretty much all of the evidence points to what's about to happen and barring a 2 day miracle it won't be stopped. Sure there might be some people rubbing in but most here just seem to be going over the evidence. To be honest a lot of Bernie supporters that haven't accepted things sound like the Romney supporters that were somehow sure he would win despite the mountains of evidence.
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...

Might want to ask the Bernie -> Trump people in this very thread about that "wanting a Democrat" in office thing.
 
if these freaking elections were shorter, I'd probably go ham on political stats

this not factoring in technological growth, which is what really rekts politics
 
Ashodin said:
The reason why it's "laughable" is because the amount of smug confidence going around is pretty toxic to conversation.

Look, I get it, Hillary is going to win tonight. But exactly how big is the question on a lot of people's minds.

To outright declare the end of someone's candidacy and in such a way that almost seems to try to get people to stop talking about it isn't cool. We have a lot of supporters on both sides, and we all want the same thing, right? A Democrat to keep the White House. I'd figure we would want to be more sympathetic to those other's candidate who might have a less of a chance winning and be inclusive in wanting them consider switching support when their time is right.

And my time will be when I think Bernie has zero chance. But only when I think he does.
Click to expand...
I think Clinton has at least an 87% chance of being the Democratic nominee. Is that smug confidence? If you think it is, you can buy Bernie shares for 10 cents each (which is equivalent to thinking he has a 10% chance of being the nominee) here: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination
We all want our next President to be a progressive, but the conspiracy theories, persecution complex, and unearned arrogance coming from one side is grating. There's a difference between being the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers. It at least makes sense for one of those to be arrogant.
 
The Technomancer said:
I mean, I think people have tried to be honest and straightforward with why they think this is a tipping point. The math doesn't really work out in Bernie's favor unless he accomplishes some kind of route that no polling data suggests that he can. Theoretically its possible, but it requires a major upset that's not being telegraphed anywhere.
Click to expand...

That's my point though. I get that some people think it's a tipping point. There's math involved, but they're predicting something that hasn't happened yet. Yes there's trends, but my point is to not outright try to crush one's hopes.

From what people have posted, there is a chance, but it's small. I'd like to hold onto that chance.
 
Kasich's candidacy is over. So is Ben Carson's. So is Ted Cruz's basically. And really there's such a small path for Rubio that his is over too.

And the path for Sanders begins to close today as well.

I mean, that doesn't mean you can't keep talking about all these candidacies. It's just the harsh reality of delegate math.

All signs point to a Trump v. Clinton election.
 
In my opinion, if Bernie wanted to stay in this race, he should have fought as hard in SC as Hillary did in NH. Because the truth is he DID have a path to the black vote, through young black voters who don't have those ties to the Clintons that older blacks do and who are HEAVILY skeptical of Hillary.

If he fought harder, broadened his message more outside of "racism exists because of money" and interacted with the black establishment more instead of using Killer Mike and Cornell West as puppets, he could have gained some serious inroads here.

But after Nevada he just gave up on the black vote. So not only will he not win and get clobbered on Super Tuesday, but I can't honestly say he deserves to win.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Kasich's candidacy is over. So is Ben Carson's. So is Ted Cruz's basically. And really there's such a small path for Rubio that his is over too.

And the path for Sanders begins to close today as well.

I mean, that doesn't mean you can't keep talking about all these candidacies. It's just the harsh reality of delegate math.

All signs point to a Trump v. Clinton election.
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Thank you. That makes me feel better from my standpoint.
 
Mecha said:
What percentages do you all think we will end up with in South Carolina for Bernie and Hillary?
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It'll be pretty bad. The polls suggest a 25% crushing. I think it could be higher. Wouldn't be too surprised if it was slightly lower. I don't see it being less than 20%.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Kasich's candidacy is over. So is Ben Carson's. So is Ted Cruz's basically. And really there's such a small path for Rubio that his is over too.

And the path for Sanders begins to close today as well.

I mean, that doesn't mean you can't keep talking about all these candidacies. It's just the harsh reality of delegate math.
Click to expand...

Oh totally, it's a goat bet

Only the top candidates can destroy themselves now
 
Teggy said:
The best way you can honor Bernie is by voting for Hillary in the GE. Please :)
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Do people really not remember 2008? Lots of people talked shit about not voting because their candidate lost (it was Clinton then), but the numbers still showed that Obama got a huge majority of Clintons supporters in the GE.

Don't worry guys, people love to talk shit in a Primary, but Liberals are still going to be voting for the Dem candidate in November.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Kasich's candidacy is over. So is Ben Carson's. So is Ted Cruz's basically. And really there's such a small path for Rubio that his is over too.

And the path for Sanders begins to close today as well.

I mean, that doesn't mean you can't keep talking about all these candidacies. It's just the harsh reality of delegate math.

All signs point to a Trump v. Clinton election.
Click to expand...

Oh God... A fibbing flip-flopper vs a racist billionaire who's going to piss the rest of the world off.
 
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Also, regardless of what happens today and on Super Tuesday, I fully expect Sanders will remain a viable candidate for a while, even if the delegate math begins to become insurmountable.

That depends more on his fundraising machine than on his electoral outcomes. Although the two are likely related.
 
Geist- said:
Do people really not remember 2008? Lots of people talked shit about not voting because their candidate lost (it was Clinton then), but the numbers still showed that Obama got a huge majority of Clintons supporters in the GE.

Don't worry guys, people love to talk shit in a Primary, but Liberals are still going to be voting for the Dem candidate in November.
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Different bases.

Hillary's supporters were baby boomers and generation Xers who show more loyalty in the long run.

Millenials feel like shit with the current status quo that seems to be going nowhere.

Hillary has to start appealing to them and the working group.
 
I think it's pretty reasonable to stand by Sanders until he drops out, but honestly I expect him to drop out after Super Tuesday.
 
Ashodin said:
That's my point though. I get that some people think it's a tipping point. There's math involved, but they're predicting something that hasn't happened yet. Yes there's trends, but my point is to not outright try to crush one's hopes.

From what people have posted, there is a chance, but it's small. I'd like to hold onto that chance.
Click to expand...

That's... what a prediction is.
 
CORONATION INTENSIFIES

BERNIE BROS BLOWN THE FUCK OUT

THE REVOLUTION HAS BEEN CRUSHED

ESTABLISHMENT REIGNS

BLACK PEOPLE SAVING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND AMERICA
 
crimsonspider89 said:
Different bases.

Hillary's supporters were baby boomers and generation Xers who show more loyalty in the long run.

Millenials feel like shit with the current status quo that seems to be going nowhere.

Hillary has to start appealing to them and the working group.
Click to expand...

It's probably more important this time to rely on blacks, latinos, and other minorities rather than the young vote. If she locks those groups up at least, the GOP won't have a shot.
 
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