Support NeoGAF

[Byakuya769]

I wonder if it has anything to do with having a boring preordained presumptive nominee and a boring old guy as choices...

Turnout is low because it isn't a heated primary race. Republicans are in a hotly contested race, on the other hand.

 

[jmdajr]

Of course that's the case.

- 8 years of a Democratic President
- wall to wall news coverage of their leading candidate, who is also one of the biggest TV stars in the country
- Conservative Entertainment Complex is 8 years better at fearmongering

I feel like I never even see Obama on the news. Just like the last year of W.

 

[SolarPowered]

So your answer is to be a part of the problem?

Read my post. I would have voted for Kerry, I voted for Obama twice (gleefully, I might add) and until a few months ago it wasn't even a question that I'd vote for Hillary. The Republican party has looked like a madhouse since GWB to me. Barring some Earth shattering scandal I know I'll probably be voting for Hillary, but this condescending bullshit will NOT fly with first time or young voters. Arguing with facts is one thing, but constant shade being thrown at millenials and "lazy" college students isn't helping anyone's chances (well, maybe Trump's tiny chance).

 

[diffusionx]

These turnout numbers are not necessary indicative of any future success in the general, considering what's going on in the Republican party right now. We're looking at a possible major party shift so you're seeing the different factions within the party fight here, and they won't necessarily play nice together once a nominee is chosen. Many of these folks will stay home if Trump is picked, others will stay home if he isn't.

Not that I think Democrats should sleep on the job or anything.

I don't agree. If you don't think the GOP base will turn out to vote against Hillary Clinton you haven't been paying attention to politics the past 20 years.

The Democrats have been asleep on the job, because they basically handed this nomination to Clinton. A lot of liberals don't like her and won't be as enthused to vote for her.

The nation is overwhelming moderate on either side of the fence, so I still think most people believe Trump doesn't stand a chance. Once it gets to the presidential election and the threat becomes real for people you will see something that most politicians have failed to do, people on both sides coming together to achieve a common goal. Not let Trump win.

Trump is moderate. The reason why he is so popular is because he is telling people what they want to hear, yet what GOP politicians have been so afraid of saying for so long (because the money wing doesn't like it). His tax plan is utter nonsense but he supports Planned Parenthood, universal healthcare, restricted immigration, is anti-free trade, and wants to punish companies that ship jobs out of state. These are all mainstream positions.

 

[SliceSabre]

Democrats will be asleep at the wheel convinced there is no way the general electorate would let him win and not bother to vote.

Trump wins. Stuns the Democrats who didn't vote cause they were convinced he couldn't win. Country goes down the shitter for 4 years. 2020 Comes around, Democrats make a huge push. Trump wins re-election cause its easier to vote for an incumbent.

 

[SlimySnake]

A lot of liberals don't like her and won't be as enthused to vote for her.

And thats where Trump comes in.

You have to understand that winning the presidency is pretty much impossible for ANY republican candidate let alone someone as decisive and racists as Trump. Trump will need 70% of the white vote to win and if you think only 70% of the white people hate hilary you havent been paying attention.

 

[eBay Huckster]

His tax plan is utter nonsense but he supports Planned Parenthood, universal healthcare, is anti-free trade, and wants to punish companies that ship jobs out of state. These are all mainstream positions.

first of all (re being for universal health care), no

second of all (re anti-free trade being mainstream), no

 

[TyrantII]

It's already been pointed out that the primaries are not equal in intensity and that primary turn out isn't actually indicative of general election turnout.

I'm not worried anyway. The Republicans are so fractured it seems unlikely they'll be able to put things back together, especially behind the most likely candidate. It's going to take everything they have to just keep the party from imploding. You've got Republican mega financiers saying they'll spend anything to defeat Trump, Republican party members suggesting they'll vote outside the party if Trump is the candidate, and all sorts of chatter about third party runs, etc. That's a lot of worms to try and cram back in by November. And if the candidate is Trump, the Republicans get a guy who can't be controlled, who's largely gone unvetted by the Republicans, and the Democratic oppo research team is going to hit him like a Mack truck. Granted, there's plenty of material in the other direction, but it's presumably stuff we've been bored about for ages.

This. There's even signs coming for the GOP establishment that they might just ceed this election and stop Trump at any cost. McConell has already said the Senate would drop him like a hot rock and run against him and his platforms to try to salvage their seats. Dealing with this now might be in their interest than going another 1-2 presidential election cycles.

This is the same MSM that reported on Rubios two turnarounds. We know how long that lasted.

Dont buy into he horse race reporting. Hell, what's really going on is much more interesting anyways.

 

[lednerg]

The demographics for US voters who can reasonably be expected to vote in the general election make it virtually impossible for the GOP to win. Like I posted before, Trump (or Rubio, or Cruz) would need 30% of the non-white vote. And that's assuming they get 59% of the white vote. It's just not happening for them.

EDIT: Also the number of Baby Boomers hasn't gone up in the past 4 years.

 

[eBay Huckster]

The demographics for US voters who can reasonably be expected to vote in the general election make it virtually impossible for Drumpf to win. Like I posted before, Drumpf (or Rubio, or Cruz) would need 30% of the non-white vote. And that's assuming they get 59% of the white vote. It's just not happening for them.

he'd also basically need the non-white vote to turn out at (modern) historical lows, while the white vote turns out at its highest since the 1980s

at this point there's a stronger case for Clinton/Sanders to win 360+ than there is for Trump to even hit 270, which is to say that neither scenario has a probability of zero

 

[Macho Madness]

Democrats will be asleep at the wheel convinced there is no way the general electorate would let him win and not bother to vote.

Trump wins. Stuns the Democrats who didn't vote cause they were convinced he couldn't win. Country goes down the shitter for 4 years. 2020 Comes around, Democrats make a huge push. Trump wins re-election cause its easier to vote for an incumbent.

Virtually no one with a brain is telling you it's a lock he can't win. Everything is unfavorable for him winning but that's not to say he can't win.

Believe me, there will be GOTV efforts leading up to the general election. The Democratic Party is not that stupid.

 

[gutter_trash]

I feel like I never even see Obama on the news. Just like the last year of W.

LOL, it's so true, now that you have mentioned it.

 

[TyrantII]

he'd also basically need the non-white vote to turn out at (modern) historical lows, while the white vote turns out at its highest since the 1980s

at this point there's a stronger case for Clinton/Sanders to win 360+ than there is for Trump to even hit 270

While denigrating Black and Latino supporters.

I won't say the Dems should expect all their support, but the polling on GOP favoritiblity from those communities are at historic lows, even beating 2008. Good luck.

 

[gutter_trash]

all the efforst W made with Latinos have almost been completely erased with the rhetoric from the Republicans post 2008.

the most ironic is that you got two children of Cuban immigrants talking the most shit about immigration which is like too much irony for Magneto to handle.
+ one of them was born in Canada

 

[Woody Invincible]

At this point, Trump should choose Vince McMahon to be his VP. It won't slow down his stride one bit.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

all the efforst W made with Latinos have almost been completely erased with the rhetoric from the Republicans post 2008.

I know that Democrats like to paint republicans who do not support illegal immigration as "Anti-Latino" but this is complete BS and believe it or not most people know the difference

 

[Rockandrollclown]

no offense to Bernie and his supporters but why would dems go out to vote when it's been very clear for months now that Hillary is their nominee? Unlike the republicans who have a hot race with almost a handful of people running for the nomination, Hillary has been pretty much a lock for months now.

Dems will turn out in November.

This. After he won the one state but lost due to super delegates I decided that voting in primaries is stupid and not for me. You bet your ass I will be out in November to vote against Trump though.

 

[AGITΩ]

I personally didnt vote in the Gerogia Primaries since I'm down for either Hillary or Sanders. Its not like we have a ton of candidates as oppose to republicans. Ive voted every presidential election since being able to. This would make my 3rd time voting. So ill still vote come election.

 

[eBay Huckster]

This. After he won the one state but lost due to super delegates

this isn't what actually happened because superdelegates don't actually factor into anything until after June 14

 

[Macho Madness]

I know that Democrats like to paint republicans who do not support illegal immigration as "Anti-Latino" but this is complete BS and believe it or not most people know the difference

Tell that to the Latino voters who by an overwhelming percentage won't vote for any of the Republican presidential candidates. Of course there's a difference between being anti-illegal immigrant and anti-Latino but if you won't even come to the table with a path to legalization then for most Latinos, you don't get it. The reason Democrats are so successful at getting minority votes is that they don't even have to try, the other side has shown over and over they don't want their vote.

 

[gutter_trash]

I know that Democrats like to paint republicans who do not support illegal immigration as "Anti-Latino" but this is complete BS and believe it or not most people know the difference

it is the language and words used that gives them that negative perception and code words used.

if Republicans used more nuanced and inteligient language like Reagan and Bush used in their 1980 debate, they wouldn't have to worry about this

Republicans of 2008-2016 have jacked up coded biggoted language that would make Reagan and Bush sound like Liberals

 

[lednerg]

This. After he won the one state but lost due to super delegates I decided that voting in primaries is stupid and not for me. You bet your ass I will be out in November to vote against Trump though.

Superdelegates can and do change their allegiance depending on the regular delegates. It happened just as recently as 2008, where Hillary SD's switched over to Obama. It's stupid that we even hear about them this early on, but that's the establishment for you, manipulating the narrative at every turn.

 

[lawnchair]

Dems better turn the hell up come November.

i'll turn up, but i don't think i'll be voting for the democratic candidate this year..

 

[aeolist]

primary turnout does not always correlate to general election numbers

democrats had a huge turnout in '88 to nominate dukakis, who got crushed by bush sr, republicans did the same in 2000 when bush jr lost the popular vote in the general

 

[titiklabingapat]

My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss in 2004 on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him in 2008.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765



What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.

They didn't show up in 2012 either. Hillary doesn't need them so long as minorities and women turn out to vote.

 

[HylianTom]

Nate Silver posted some enthusiasm-related numbers this morning:

Per exit polls so far, % of party voters who would be satisfied with __ as their nominee:
Clinton 78%
Sanders 63
-
Rubio 53
Cruz 51
Trump 48

Polling has reflected that most Dem voters remain convinced that Hillary will be the nominee. Despite the Bernie-or-bust blather we see online, Dem voters in the real world are clearly fine with this outcome (these numbers are even better than they were at a similar point in 2008), so I could see this aligning with less urgency to turn out.

 

[TyrantII]

Superdelegates can and do change their allegiance depending on the regular delegates. It happened just as recently as 2008, where Hillary SD's switched over to Obama. It's stupid that we even hear about them this early on, but that's the establishment for you, manipulating the narrative at every turn.

Hillary's in 2008 realigned to to match their states allocation of the popular vote.

Superdelegates overuling the popular vote choice within the party in this century would be political suicide. There's just too much attention and instant reporting of what's happening on the ground.

 

[Macho Madness]

Hillary's strategy was essentially what Bernie's is now. Win states, not delegates.

 

[diffusionx]

Nate Silver posted some enthusiasm-related numbers this morning:


Polling has reflected that most Dem voters remain convinced that Hillary will be the nominee. Despite the Bernie-or-bust blather we see online, Dem voters in the real world are clearly fine with this outcome (these numbers are even better than they were at a similar point in 2008), so I could see this aligning with less urgency to turn out.

Nate Silver has proven to be clueless on Trump. I know everyone thinks he is some sort of supergenius but he has the same blind spots everyone else has on this.

 

[Anastasia]

It's already been pointed out that the primaries are not equal in intensity and that primary turn out isn't actually indicative of general election turnout.

I'm not worried anyway. The Republicans are so fractured it seems unlikely they'll be able to put things back together, especially behind the most likely candidate. It's going to take everything they have to just keep the party from imploding. You've got Republican mega financiers saying they'll spend anything to defeat Trump, Republican party members suggesting they'll vote outside the party if Trump is the candidate, and all sorts of chatter about third party runs, etc. That's a lot of worms to try and cram back in by November. And if the candidate is Trump, the Republicans get a guy who can't be controlled, who's largely gone unvetted by the Republicans, and the Democratic oppo research team is going to hit him like a Mack truck. Granted, there's plenty of material in the other direction, but it's presumably stuff we've been bored about for ages.

I largely agree, but regarding the last sentence, we haven't seen Hillary attacked on those things in any sort of "Trumpian" way. He really is a master at manipulation, and making people think he's saying the right things, even though he's full of shit. Putting aside that Trump is going to change his message and tone for the GE (which he has already shown he is doing), I'm not sure I feel confident in the average American voter to go and do their research on the candidates. Granted, it won't really be hard to point out how wrong Trump is (there's more than enough material out there), but I see him as being crafty enough to overcome that. Obviously I could be completely wrong in all of this, and we'll see what happens once we get into the GE. I just don't feel very optimistic.

 

[gutter_trash]

Nate Silver has proven to be clueless on Trump. I know everyone thinks he is some sort of supergenius but he has the same blind spots everyone else has on this.

he was so salty on Tuesday night

 

[PhoncipleBone]

My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss in 2004 on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him in 2008.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765



What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.

This is key. I am already seeing so many people I know in their early to mid twenties posting about not voting or voting Trump if Clinton is the pick and not Sanders.

 

[The Lamonster]

This is key. I am already seeing so many people I know in their early to mid twenties posting about not voting or voting Trump if Clinton is the pick and not Sanders.

If people are that fucking stupid, they deserve a President Trump and the ruin that will come with it.

 

[Future]

My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss in 2004 on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him in 2008.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765



What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.

This is why I'm gonna be prepared to see the crow eating. Clinton does not inspire democrats like Obama or Sanders do. She inevitably will get the nomination, and lack of democratic turn out could very possibly seal the deal for trump.

People site that without minority vote trump can't win! What they don't realize is that without democratic turnout, Clinton can't win

 

[Gentleman Jack]

If Trump ends up as the candidate you had better believe people will show up to vote against him in droves.

Just like they voted against a second Reagan or Dubya term, right?

 

[Macho Madness]

This is key. I am already seeing so many people I know in their early to mid twenties posting about not voting or voting Trump if Clinton is the pick and not Sanders.

I wish I had the ability to do that.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Clooney should take on Trump in 2020 if Hildog goes down.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

It's not an indicator of general election turnout.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/01/how_much_does_voter_turnout_matter_112990.html

Trump would be destroyed in a general election.

 

[Macam]

It's not an indicator of general election turnout.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/01/how_much_does_voter_turnout_matter_112990.html

Trump would be destroyed in a general election.

Lose? Probably. Destroyed? No. Anyone imaging anything close to a Mondale result is going to be sorely disappointed.

And I would be very reluctant to point to past electoral analyses as de facto evidence of what will occur going forward. They may provide clues, but aren't always adequate predictors, especially in what's a fairly unusual election cycle (see the Nate Silver post just above).

 

[MIMIC]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1098059

Throw in CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, etc.

 

[Regiruler]

mix of enthusiasm difference + number of competitors (low competitor counts bring lower turnouts versus higher competitor counts ceteris paribus)

I am adding that to my vocabulary.

 

[kame-sennin]

Any democrats, go out and vote for Trump in the primaries. He's a guaranteed win for democrats in the fall.

Said by someone who won't be affected if this plan horrifically backfires. Muslims, Latinos, and Blacks can not afford to take risks or vote for Trump "for the lulz".

Not to mention, every day Trump is in the race, violence against POC increases. But yeah, let's vote for him anyway so our girl Hillary can win.

 

[SolarPowered]

Said by someone who won't be affected if this plan horrifically backfires. Muslims, Latinos, and Blacks can not afford to take risks or vote for Trump "for the lulz".

Not to mention, every day Trump is in the race, violence against POC increases. But yeah, let's vote for him anyway so our girl Hillary can win.

Yeah, it's funny that people not interested in voting come November (if Bernie should lose) are vilified while people who have switched parties just to get Trump the nomination are A-okay. Voting for the man even in the smallest of ways should be the worst political mistake they've ever made. Lazy college kids look good next to that if you ask me.

 

[Macho Madness]

I would not vote for Trump, even in a primary. I couldn't live with myself in the off chance he got elected.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Said by someone who won't be affected if this plan horrifically backfires. Muslims, Latinos, and Blacks can not afford to take risks or vote for Trump "for the lulz".

Not to mention, every day Trump is in the race, violence against POC increases. But yeah, let's vote for him anyway so our girl Hillary can win.

How do you know I am not affected by this? I would be. Also who is better on the republican side? They all believe in the same things. Trump is just saying them louder. I'll take the guy Trump that actually doesn't believe in what he says in regards to immigration and would be willing to negotiate per NYT secret tapes than someone not willing to like Cruz. Also, they all push for gerrymandering, which is basically a fuck you to black voters. Trump is the most beatable and anyone as a democrat should hope he wins the republican nomination. In the small chance he does win, he's still the most left on many of the issues.

 

[MrToughPants]

Trump nom is a guaranteed Dem win.

 

[killertofu]

I hope the people who keep saying that Dems are guaranteed the White House actually go out and vote in November

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

If people are that fucking stupid, they deserve a President Trump and the ruin that will come with it.

Yup. They'll have to feel the effect of their actions through the next 10-20-30 years of cases making it to the Supreme Court and getting the Conservative ruling. Just like the Nader folks during the Bush vs Gore. I don't know how someone who is all gung-ho for Bernie and his number one cause of Campaign Finance Reform/Money in Politics and would rather vote for Trump over Hillary.

Say all you want about it not being a priority for Hillary but at least it is on the radar in the Democratic Party. It is a NON-STARTER for Republican party. Short-sighted as hell.

 

[kame-sennin]

How do you know I am not affected by this? I would be. Also who is better on the republican side? They all believe in the same things. Trump is just saying them louder. I'll take the guy Trump that actually doesn't believe in what he says in regards to immigration and would be willing to negotiate per NYT secret tapes than someone not willing to like Cruz. Also, they all push for gerrymandering, which is basically a fuck you to black voters. Trump is the most beatable and anyone as a democrat should hope he wins the republican nomination. In the small chance he does win, he's still the most left on many of the issues.

Blacks, Muslims, and Latinos get beat up at Trump rallies and they're getting attacked in the streets by Trump supporters. People are being hurt because of Trump right now. It's straight up immoral to help Trump's campaign last one more day. Please stop spreading this harmful shit.

 

[noshten]

Yup. They'll have to feel the effect of their actions through the next 10-20-30 years of cases making it to the Supreme Court and getting the Conservative ruling. Just like the Nader folks during the Bush vs Gore. I don't know how someone who is all gung-ho for Bernie and his number one cause of Campaign Finance Reform/Money in Politics and would rather vote for Trump over Hillary.

Say all you want about it not being a priority for Hillary but at least it is on the radar in the Democratic Party. It is a NON-STARTER for Republican party. Short-sighted as hell.

Youth turnout would not be Obama levels with Hillary as the nominee but it would still be substantial. Obviously Bernie is the candidate who has more enthusiastic youth support. The ones that were sure to vote I'm certain would end up voting Clinton, while there would be some that would not vote or vote Stein for example. But this won't be the demographic that changes this race.

I'm more worried about 30+ year old white people making under 50K an year, that is the demographic that worries me and seems to be the ones flocking to Trump. Alot of these people usually don't vote, but have turned on due to the circus nature of Trump. These people have not seen better times in the last 8 years, and they are also unaffected by the narrative that Obama brought on change for their community. They are disenfranchised and low information. I'm worried that poor white people could swing to Trump and this is what I'm noticing across the Primaries and it's pretty substantial numbers, a lot of people who don't usually vote.

The whole narrative of youth being the biggest problem for Hillary is missing the point really, there are large number of people out there to Trump as their hope for change, it's crude, it's terrifying, but this is what I'm taking away from some of the things I've heard being said about the Trump supporters.

Here is an excerpt from Matt Taibbi - How America Made Donald Trump Unstoppable

Unions have been abused so much by both parties in the past decades that even mentioning themes union members care about instantly grabs the attention of workers. That's true even when it comes from Donald Trump, a man who kicked off the fourth GOP debate saying "wages [are] too high" and who had the guts to tell the Detroit News that Michigan autoworkers make too much money.

You will find union members scattered at almost all of Trump's speeches. And there have been rumors of unions nationally considering endorsing Trump. SEIU president Mary Kay Henry even admitted in January that Trump appeals to members because of the "terrible anxiety" they feel about jobs.

"I know guys, union guys, who talk about Trump," says Rand Wilson, an activist from the Labor for Bernie organization. "I try to tell them about Sanders, and they don't know who he is. Or they've just heard he's a socialist. Trump they've heard of."