NPR: Massive Republican turnout at Super Tuesday.

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Trump is a polarizing figure, to put it lightly. He'll turn off plenty of Republicans. (Like he's done already.) He'll motivate plenty of Democrats to keep him out of office. Barring an immense upsurge of support among the demographics he's railed against so far, Trump has a very tough fight ahead of him.
 
If anything shows the disconnect between echo chambers like these forums and everyday life it is these primary results. Trump, a common joke on the Internet, is dominating in elections. It makes me question any internet "consensus" you might find about any subject. Having internet fanatics flood a poll is completely non-indicative of the actual real world.

It also shows how out-of-touch political leadership becomes when they exist in their own echo chamber that makes them think they are dominating outside of reality. The same place Romney and Rove resided in in 2012.
 
It really is an interesting and strange phenomenon. We will see if this sways the votes toward the Republican side during the general election.

I hope it doesn't hold by that point, personally. It does seem like a lot of republicans are going to vote against Trump.
 
He's the republican Obama in terms of bringing out those high turn outs. I'm concerned about the democratic turn out. The democratic and republican vote from 08 basically switched. Democratic turn out was practically halved this time around.


He's going to win if it keeps being consistent.

It's not
 
God I wish I could see the crow eating on this forum if trump actually became president. Peoples world views would be shattered
 
God I wish I could see the crow eating on this forum if trump actually became president. Peoples world views would be shattered

Well, a lot of crow has already been dished out. I've had my fair share. But while we're in very interesting territory, most of this is playing out in the context of a wildly distorted Republican primary process. People like myself who had long been skeptical of Trump's chances at least had to contend with strong counterevidence that something unique was going on. So far, the evidence is pointing almost universally to Trump getting killed in a general election, at least as far as I can tell.

Either way, Trump becoming president would transcend crow. That wouldn't so much be a matter of worldviews being shattered, as it would be a matter of our entire political process being shattered. And it wouldn't be the result of some progressive revolution; no more than the United States almost defaulting on its debt in 2011 was. It would reflect pure deterioration. The kind that might be difficult to come back from.
 
I'm not worried anyway.

Yoda_you_will_be.jpg
 
American politics almost has more influence over my life than Australian politics, it was bad enough that you weren't gonna get Bernie but the idea of actually getting Trump fills me with terror.

Please vote my American friends :(
 
He won't get the black or hispanic vote and people will actively turn out to the polls to make sure he loses. He's the main thing that can energize the democratic base to vote this year.

That is a fucking problem and a half. We shouldn't be expecting the minority vote to be a defensive one. We should instead be expecting a candidate to energize the demographics they need to win.

That's precisely why Trump is doing so well with Republicans. He is displaying the properties that republicans value over ideals such as honesty and integrity. He is presenting a show of power, he is derisively hostile to outsider groups, he is unapologetic even in the face of him being incorrect, he is not quick to distance himself from white supremacist groups, he gives token appreciation for christian religious tenants. He is speaking directly to the heart of the republican base. He stole the vote away from the brains of the party and is appealing directly to the rotten decayed husk of a heart: the base.
 
It's all Trump.

This is true.

Makes it ridiculous that the republican party won't get behind him.

This is false.

The numbers are high for all top 3 candidates in any state. The anti-Trump Vote is out in force as much as the pro Trump force.

This huge turnout for both sides just shows how incompetent the Republican leadership is at forcing the other candidates to drop out.

But it's not all incompetence. Cruz historically has back stabbed the Republicans on many occasions. Why rally around someone who hurt you in the past?

So the next best thing are Rubio and Kaisich but Kaisich has little appeal with southerners and Rubio hasn't proven himself a winner like Cruz has.

It's gotten so bad that Republicans are seriously considering or already committed to advocating for Hillary Clinton IF Trump wins. The anti-Trump movement is very divided on how to deal with him.
 
But half the GOP was out there voting against him. I don't know how this will translate to general election.
 
This is scary but Trump needs independents.

No he doesn't. Trump needs unregistered voters. He has a huge swath of people who are most likely to vote for him but they haven't taken part in politics. Most of them are poor white people.

Laughably Trump' being so cheap in financing his campaign is one of the big factors that will prevent him from winning the presidency because his voter outreach ground game is anemic.
 
Why are they using different comparison numbers?

Why not directly compare how many people came out to vote for both parties on Super Tuesday?

Why not compare and contrast that with how many states on Super Tuesday are either Red or Blue States?

If you want to use years why not use the same years? They used 2012 as the comparison point for Republicans. They used 2008 for Democrats. Why not use the same year?
 
But half the GOP was out there voting against him. I don't know how this will translate to general election.

This logic only works if polling numbers indicate that those GOP voters not going with Trump go with Hillary over Trump in the General.

If they poll as sticking with whoever is the GOP nominee, what does it matter what happens in the Primary?
 
He won't get the black or hispanic vote and people will actively turn out to the polls to make sure he loses. He's the main thing that can energize the democratic base to vote this year.

IF they vote. Voter ID laws are skewed against minorities (and Republicans know it for a good damn reason)
 
I don't see the field consolidating and getting behind the winner like it did for the Democrats in 2008

Hillary fans got behind Obama. Where as I believe there is a legitimately large group of republicans who will not vote for Trump.
 
I don't see the field consolidating and getting behind the winner like it did for the Democrats in 2008

Hillary fans got behind Obama. Where as I believe there is a legitimately large group of republicans who will not vote for Trump.
I think a lot of the GOP will straight up not vote.
 
If you want to use years why not use the same years? They used 2012 as the comparison point for Republicans. They used 2008 for Democrats. Why not use the same year?


They are assuming you already know that turnout in 2008 was higher for Democrats than 2012 and vice versa for Republicans.
 
My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss in 2004 on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him in 2008.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765


Clinton has acknowledged she's fallen short, saying she has to work harder to convince young people she will help them. When an Iowa college student asked her in January why so many other youths found her dishonest, Clinton blamed decades of Republican attacks.

What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.
 
My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765


What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.
They will be cause their rock star candidate isn't going to win because black people won't vote for him and Clinton is 'boring'.

Young Democrats don't vote unless there is a 'rockstar' politician to vote for.

Look forward to President Trump by this time next year.
 
Wouldn't a lot of it come from the Republican primary being a hotly contested nomination between many well-known figures while the Democratic one was pretty much a given from the start.
 
My biggest concern is whether or not Hillary Clinton's campaign will turn into another John Kerry situation. Many analysts blame John Kerry's loss in 2004 on the youth vote -- not enough young people showed up to vote for him. Obviously, Barack Obama inspired many young people to go out and vote for him in 2008.

A few hours ago, ABC News published a story about Clinton's struggles with younger voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/clinton-faces-struggle-win-back-younger-voters-37361765


What I'm saying is: I hope young people won't be lazy and stay home. They need to get out there and vote.
You should hope that Hillary and the DNC can actually convince young people to go out and vote. No one is owed a vote. Democrats might also want to squash the condescending narrative that young people are lazy about voting no matter how much truth there is to it. I hear this argument brought up every single day on GAF and it is one of the most offputting things people keep repeating this voting season. I voted for Obama (would have voted SO hard for Kerry if I were old enough) and the constant droning about lazy youth makes me want to not even bother with the process anymore.
 
You should hope that Hillary and the DNC can actually convince young people to go out and vote. No one is owed a vote. Democrats might also want to squash the condescending narrative that young people are lazy about voting no matter how much truth there is to it. I hear this argument brought up every single day on GAF and it is one of the most offputting things people keep repeating this voting season. I voted for Obama (would have voted SO hard for Kerry if I were old enough) and the constant droning about lazy youth makes me want to not even bother with the process anymore.
"I'm not gonna vote so I can thumb my nose at those who say I'm not gonna vote!"
 
The nation is overwhelming moderate on either side of the fence, so I still think most people believe Trump doesn't stand a chance. Once it gets to the presidential election and the threat becomes real for people you will see something that most politicians have failed to do, people on both sides coming together to achieve a common goal. Not let Trump win.
 
This is the end. Hillary is about as inspiring as a tree stump, the narrative is firmly anti-establishment right now, and independents have never been the brightest bulbs of the bunch. The 327 college students that voted for Bernie are going to pack their ball and go home. The Democrat's message is shit. It should be inspiring, not "if you don't vote, you're FUCKED."
 
People told me there was no way Trump would win the nomination, now people tell me there is no way Trump can win the presidency.
I honestly hope you are right, but it seems utterly foolish to underestimate the opposition.
 
It's already been pointed out that the primaries are not equal in intensity and that primary turn out isn't actually indicative of general election turnout.

I'm not worried anyway. The Republicans are so fractured it seems unlikely they'll be able to put things back together, especially behind the most likely candidate. It's going to take everything they have to just keep the party from imploding. You've got Republican mega financiers saying they'll spend anything to defeat Trump, Republican party members suggesting they'll vote outside the party if Trump is the candidate, and all sorts of chatter about third party runs, etc. That's a lot of worms to try and cram back in by November. And if the candidate is Trump, the Republicans get a guy who can't be controlled, who's largely gone unvetted by the Republicans, and the Democratic oppo research team is going to hit him like a Mack truck. Granted, there's plenty of material in the other direction, but it's presumably stuff we've been bored about for ages.

I agree with this. The GOP is approaching not being a viable national party anylonger. Very interesting period for American Politics(if not frightening)
 
People told me there was no way Trump would win the nomination, now people tell me there is no way Trump can win the presidency.
I honestly hope you are right, but it seems utterly foolish to underestimate the opposition.

That's why I think opposing turn out is low now. People don't understand this part of the election process very well and they think Trump is a joke that will get weeded out, once it becomes real that Trump is the Republican candidate and those presidential debates start happening then I think there will huge moderate and independent voter turn out.

Just sucks the person running against Trump wasn't so uninspiring, but I think the historical relevance of a first female president could also bring out a lot of support as well.
 
People told me there was no way Trump would win the nomination, now people tell me there is no way Trump can win the presidency.
I honestly hope you are right, but it seems utterly foolish to underestimate the opposition.

Republicans are trying to fix it to be a brokered convention.

having Rubio, Kasich and Cruz still in the running splits up the delegate count blocking Trump for obtaining the threshold required

the Koch brothers are not going to let him win the nomination, there is too much dirty money behind that Republican Party to allow one who is not bond to them win.

They are going to screw him at the convention
 
Well one side still seems like a race while the other was determined months ago. Why get out to vote in the primaries when you already know who is going to win?
 
Contrast that with the Democrats. In the Dems' 11 states reporting results from last night, turnout totaled only around 5.9 million — that's around 2.6 million fewer people than came out in those states 2008, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in the middle of what would would be a long, hard-fought race.

I think this is a big difference too. The current Democratic race is arguably one sided right now, which would cause a lot of Democratic voters to stay home and "wait for the inevitable".
 
Republicans are trying to fix it to be a brokered convention.

having Rubio, Kasich and Cruz still in the running splits up the delegate count blocking Trump for obtaining the threshold required

the Koch brothers are not going to let him win the nomination, there is too much dirty money behind that Republican Party to allow one who is not bond to them win.

They are going to screw him at the convention

It's going to be a disaster if they do that. They'd even run the risk of losing moderate Republicans who were willing to accept Trump if he actually was the majority vote, but decide to jump ship now because he was cheated.

Cruz wouldn't be thrilled by that either. The GOP isn't picking him, but by numbers, he should be the one picked after Trump. He's in second place and will likely continue to be in second place. Would Cruz burn the entire thing down and encourage his delegates to go to Trump?
 
You should hope that Hillary and the DNC can actually convince young people to go out and vote. No one is owed a vote. Democrats might also want to squash the condescending narrative that young people are lazy about voting no matter how much truth there is to it. I hear this argument brought up every single day on GAF and it is one of the most offputting things people keep repeating this voting season. I voted for Obama (would have voted SO hard for Kerry if I were old enough) and the constant droning about lazy youth makes me want to not even bother with the process anymore.

So your answer is to be a part of the problem?
 
That's why I think opposing turn out is low now. People don't understand this part of the election process very well and they think Trump is a joke that will get weeded out, once it becomes real that Trump is the Republican candidate and those presidential debates start happening then I think there will huge moderate and independent voter turn out.

I assume it will be similar to when Le Pen was in the French presidential election in 2002, where virtually every somewhat reasonable person voted for Not-Le Pen, but it is by no means a given (and obviously in no way to that extent).

Just sucks the person running against Trump wasn't so uninspiring, but I think the historical relevance of a first female president could also bring out a lot of support as well.

Maybe, but never underestimate sexism.

Republicans are trying to fix it to be a brokered convention.

That seems unthinkable.
 
Of course that's the case.

- 8 years of a Democratic President
- wall to wall news coverage of their leading candidate, who is also one of the biggest TV stars in the country
- Conservative Entertainment Complex is 8 years better at fearmongering
 
no offense to Bernie and his supporters but why would dems go out to vote when it's been very clear for months now that Hillary is their nominee? Unlike the republicans who have a hot race with almost a handful of people running for the nomination, Hillary has been pretty much a lock for months now.

Dems will turn out in November.
 
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