The classic pollsters not polling a few days before the primary/election mistake. Most of the surprise wins I witnessed including this one had something like that happen.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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The classic pollsters not polling a few days before the primary/election mistake. Most of the surprise wins I witnessed including this one had something like that happen.
maabus1999
Member
This is like the same argument I'm seeing from Trump supporters on other sites.
ahahahahhahaa
If the polls are indicating a 25+ pp lead? Yeah I'd say 99% would be right too. It was just a huge polling/turnout miss.
strikeselect
You like me, you really really like me!
One of my concerns with having Bernie as the nominee is how that "socialist" tag will play in the general election. I just don't know.... bad vibes. Trump will have a field day.
Your Entertainer
Member
And it seems like this has been the case for a long time. I recall another exit poll revealing the same result.
Anyway, despite how nervous a Bernie primary win makes me, I must say:
First the Lakers beat the Warriors, and now this. Week of upsets.
+UFC 196.
What were Rubio's projections in Idaho?
But if you have Clinton Vs trump and ask that same question she'll win that handedly.
Independents are why Bernie could conceivably beat Trump more easily than Hillary could
ShironRedshift
Member
Well, congrats to Sanders for the win in MI. ^_^ Will definitely be fascinating to learn in the coming days just why the polls in Michigan ended up being as inaccurate as they were. Interesting stuff.
Battersea Power Station
Member
I'm ready for the next big race. Northern Marianas, here we come! I hope Bernie is on the way there now.
Unchanged from last night. This wasn't nearly a big enough win for him to put a dent in her lead. Clinton is still walking out of tonight with more delegates.
Thagomizer
Member
538 doesn't just repost polls man. They try to analyze the polls and account for those errors.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
The poll they weighted the most is also the poll that was the most wrong.
It's not the socialist tag that's the problem. It's his tax proposals which will be played in commercials non-stop, but haven't yet because there's no need.
Still not explaining how it's 'sad'. Honestly the fact that you're stating these things as static facts that will never change (even though we as a country are much more liberal than we were even recently and Bernie has younger voters tied up) is what's coming across as sad.
So Bernie doesn't win, he's strengthened ideas that years ago would've been completely ignored, forced Clinton to absorb some of them as her own. It's not about Bernie, he loses, he returns to the senate for a while, he retires, the ideas stay. Michigan is just one brick in that.
hipsterpants
Member
Looking forward to help Hillary in MO in a week! I live in a college town but I saw a Hillary poster which means that at least I'm not the only one!
With democratic turnout severely down over 4 years ago and Republican turnout high, as much as I like Bernie, he's going to have it tough in the general election. Look how he barely is able to get any of the black vote, let's see how he gets other minority votes. You can't win a democratic general election with such low votes from black and possibly Hispanic voters.
They are just statisticians. The source data has 21% lead by Clinton.
I would damn sure hope their model would put Clinton heavily up.
It's just funny to me that nate silver has now become the punching bag again. The GOP tried to demonize the guy back during Obama's run. Now a bunch of bernie supporters are falling for the same trap. Almost like they think he is cooking the books. He's not. That's what the numbers said.
Well, not entirely.
Clinton is further ahead now than she was at the beginning of the day.
Well, I assume they call the primary by modeling the demographics on a county by county or even precinct by precinct level and then plotting correlations between precincts.
So you can't really do that until you actually have some precinct-level data in to correlate with the other precincts.
If they have very fine-grained modeling it makes sense for them to call earlier than people expect based on their models, that's like the whole point of their website. Doesn't necessarily mean they are calling early for views, they can still be calling at the earliest point they think they can project the win.
Obviously they were wrong tonight though!
Lord_Byron28
Member
They also were off with 2012's primary election too. 538 and Nate Silver are good with running strictly the numbers but there is more than just numbers that go into who can win an election. They widely ignored and stuck against Trump even though anyone who looked around could see that the establishment candidates were shit and no amount of money and media persuasion could prop them up.
Geez, let the Bernie supporters have their fun. Not like this is something that happens often.
On top of that, Clinton supporters have come off as talking down on Bernie supporters and mocking them. And anytime a Bernie supporter displays hope for Bernie, someone always has to crush their hope like if it would be a crime to let them dream.
SolarPowered
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Epsilon-delta
Banned
Nate gets paid the big bucks to analyze polls and account for errors.
Apparently, tonight was not his night.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
Battersea Power Station
Member
I'm a Hillary fan, too. I especially think she's got the experience in foreign policy. If you look at Bernie's positions and record, you might find that you like him even more than Clinton! Give it a shot.
Already Torn
Banned
I mean, do you think those vote/ would go to Trump?
Ehhhh their polls plus model has been off a lot this cycle even Nate has conceded this. That's their model.
SolarPowered
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But that was expected, the Michigan close loss was not. This is a big deal not because Bernie is doing better proportionately, but because he's defying long-term models. Michigan could suggest similar upsets in future open primaries.
womfalcs3
Banned
Okay. The future may allow for those ideas to come to fruition, but not now. I agree... Bernie will not win, but America is becoming more liberal.
Which analysts night was it then? I don't think any statistician could have predicted this large of a miss.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
The "crushing their hope" generally comes in the form of "yes, he won but not by enough to matter" or "she still got more delegates than he did." Both of which are factually true.
There's very little "hahahahahahahaha YEAH! Fuck that old shitbag!! Woo!"
lastflowers
Banned
Ahh, the wonders of naivete. The wonders of always looking in 4 year cycles. You're part of the problem in the country's political system.
Right, but again he's going to need largs victories moving forward (60/40) which is extremely unlikely.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Similar upsets still don't win him the nomination. He needs several, consistent, larger upsets than he had today to get the nomination.
Small wins will change nothing, he needs big resounding ones in delegate rich states. If he wins every state from here to the convention by this margin he still loses.
MHWilliams
Member
There is no real difference, which is why I had to say this same thing when Hillary won some states and Hillary fans were up.
No one is better, despite their perceptions. Let people enjoy their win.
Speedy Blue Dude
Banned
Bernie hype! Kind of feel like actually supporting him now and donating to his campaign.
Can't believe Berne did it!
Can't believe Berne did it!
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