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[Vena]

That's... kind of bad for a DQ game on the most popular platform in Japan, isn't it? Or maybe S-E printed way more copies than there's an audience for? I'd imagine they would be perfectly aware of the numbers the other DQM games did on the 3DS, though.

Its always hard to judge this stuff with "big" titles because the actual shipment can be all over the spectrum from medium to enormous. And sell-through in this way is a relative value without reference.

The sell-through is usually more indicative a metric for titles that are niche that you know have small shipments. Or the sell-through is like 10%~20%.

 

[Fisico]

if i was pennywise i would say this is "preemptive damage control"

Yep I saw that one coming

To be fair this would be like me saying "if Sony marketed Tearaway it would have sold hundreds of thousands. It selling so lowly is actually ok all things considering". Mind you there were people trying to spin in that time in this way and it was a bad excuse then and a bad excuse now.

Well if you live in a world where Tearaway and Dragon Quest Monsters seem like two IP with similar sales potential then maybe.

DQMJ3 will have "disappointing" sales regardless of whether or not it has better legs than the previous entries and that was absolutely not what I was talking about, the point is many potential buyers are probably not even aware of the game existence which (for a million seller sub IP is just dumbfounding btw) kinda "guarantees" better legs once said potential buyers learn of the game existence.

 

[Vena]

Well if you live in a world where Tearaway and Dragon Quest Monsters seem like two IP with similar sales potential then maybe.

DQMJ3 will have "disappointing" sales regardless of whether or not it has better legs than the previous entries and that was absolutely not what I was talking about, the point is many potential buyers are probably not even aware of the game existence which (for a million seller sub IP is just dumbfounding btw) kinda "guarantees" better legs once said potential buyers learn of the game existence.

This ties back into our discussion earlier of transparent publisher behavior and mismanagement of new entries in established brands. Whether that be about Miku or Digimon or DQM.

 

[Saoshyant]

the game was barely advertised and it is expected to have a very low first week compared to its predecessors and what should have been its sales under normal circumstances.

Its always hard to judge this stuff with "big" titles because the actual shipment can be all over the spectrum from medium to enormous. And sell-through in this way is a relative value without reference.

The sell-through is usually more indicative a metric for titles that are niche that you know have small shipments. Or the sell-through is like 10%~20%.

Ah, thank you for the input -- that puts things under perspective.

I wouldn't know about advertisement, but what they had shown so far in gaming mags looked pretty good (which in turn gets reported in places like Gematsu). Free form walking, flying, an interesting battle system -- I expected the die hard fans of DQM to be all over it. I know I will import it at some point down the line for sure.

 

[L~A]

Ah, thank you for the input -- that puts things under perspective.

I wouldn't know about advertisement, but what they had shown so far in gaming mags looked pretty good (which in turn gets reported in places like Gematsu). Free form walking, flying, an interesting battle system -- I expected the die hard fans of DQM to be all over it. I know I will import it at some point down the line for sure.

If the game is good (and it certainly seems to be), then die hard fans will be all over it. They already own the console after all.

Chris has actually explained that pretty well several times before.

 

[Nirolak]

There's also a 16 million download gorilla in the room that likely fits most casual tastes quite well.

 

[Vena]

Ah, thank you for the input -- that puts things under perspective.

I wouldn't know about advertisement, but what they had shown so far in gaming mags looked pretty good (which in turn gets reported in places like Gematsu). Free form walking, flying, an interesting battle system -- I expected the die hard fans of DQM to be all over it. I know I will import it at some point down the line for sure.

And the bolded ties into what we were talking about earlier with these iterative releases not attempting to grow (or, at least, attempt to show themselves as if they are growing) with new releases, and just doing the same old/safe which targets a diminishing group of "fans" rather than attempting to expand in ways to attract new audiences or lapsed old audiences.

In this case, on some level, its like a mix of both, seemingly. The game has evolved (at least from what we know of it) from its predecessors in some (albeit potentially minor) ways but its publisher has... been poor in messaging and advertising.

There's also a 16 million download gorilla in the room that likely fits most casual tastes quite well.

This too.

 

[Yeshua]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 130000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 400000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 130000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 40000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 70000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 160000​

 

[Mario007]

Yep I saw that one coming



Well if you live in a world where Tearaway and Dragon Quest Monsters seem like two IP with similar sales potential then maybe.

DQMJ3 will have "disappointing" sales regardless of whether or not it has better legs than the previous entries and that was absolutely not what I was talking about, the point is many potential buyers are probably not even aware of the game existence which (for a million seller sub IP is just dumbfounding btw) kinda "guarantees" better legs once said potential buyers learn of the game existence.

I was just pointing out that you cant blame advertising all the time.

 

[Nirolak]

Advertising is generally spent as a percentage of expected revenue.

Low amounts of advertising are symptomatic of a product that a company has lost confidence in for other reasons, or at minimum feels they will gain no additional traction with the audience that would not be aware of their game anyway.

When seeing low amounts of advertising, the question should be "Why did this company lose faith in reaching a wider audience with this game?"

It's not that a company is going "We should kill this product by not marketing it!!!", but rather that they ran calculations and went "Well, we will make less money by advertising this more because ____________."

Mind, a few products feel they only benefit from post launch advertising as they primarily appeal to impulse buyers, but I'm not sure that's the case here.

For DQM, I'm guessing they feel the product will primarily appeal to its core audience and anyone who wasn't sold by the ads in Jump and Famitsu are only going to be sold by seeing their friends playing it. For the older audience that might not have friends playing it, they view them as the target audience for the mobile game.

 

[Xbro]

If the game is good (and it certainly seems to be), then die hard fans will be all over it. They already own the console after all.

Chris has actually explained that pretty well several times before.

Whelp, you edited. Would have been a good joke too.

 

[sense]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 120000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 150000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 130000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 40000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 70000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 60000​

way too low for star ocean

 

[DKHF]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 150,000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 160,000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 175,000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 46,000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 65,000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 65,000​

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 210.987
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 456.789
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 123.456
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 45.678
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 123.456
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 234.567

 

[Chris1964]

The big underperformance of next month will be Star Ocean with hands down.

 

[astrogamer]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):
[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 190,000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 320,000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 145,000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 52,000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 68,000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 185,000

 

[Zhao_Yun]

The big underperformance of next month will be Star Ocean with hands down.

I wonder how many potential buyers will wait for the delayed PS3 version.
Hoping that the game will be at least somewhat successful.

 

[Chris1964]

I wonder how many potential buyers will wait for the delayed PS3 version.

Almost zero? I doubt it will be an important number.

Kirby Triple Deluxe climbed to 800k, if there is a Kirby with a chance to top 1m again is this.

 

[Fisico]

Almost zero? I doubt it will be an important number.

Should still be 5 digits, now whether it's closer to 10.000 or 80.000 I don't know.

 

[sense]

The big underperformance of next month will be Star Ocean with hands down.

so if it sells more than your prediction would you say you were wrong! i am thinking it will sell between 250k and 300k including digital for the period

i remember where a certain week was highlighted as a week of bomba's multiple times but it turned out only street fighter really bombed

 

[Nirolak]

Star Ocean is another one of those series like Summon Night where they stopped making it for a reason and I'm not exactly sure what's supposed to be different in 2016 that makes it appealing again.

It wasn't like this was a series where the last game did great, but the studio moved on to even bigger things. These types of b-tier console oriented JRPGs just aren't major titles anymore in almost every case.

 

[Sterok]

Almost zero? I doubt it will be an important number.

Kirby Triple Deluxe climbed to 800k, if there is a Kirby with a chance to top 1m again is this.

Do you think there's a chance Robobot will sell better than Triple Deluxe? It looked to me like the sort of quick asset reuse game that would result in selling a lot less like all those other games we've gone over. But those were all RPGs, so maybe it's different for a Kirby platformer.

 

[Chris1964]

Should still be 5 digits, now whether it's closer to 10.000 or 80.000 I don't know.

Of course it will sell 5 digits, I'm thinking something close to 50k, but the big picture doesn't change.

Do you think there's a chance Robobot will sell better than Triple Deluxe? It looked to me like the sort of quick asset reuse game that would result in selling a lot less like all those other games we've gone over. But those were all RPGs, so maybe it's different for a Kirby platformer.

I see it is very packed at content and it reuses assets from a very well received game. Legs will tell.

so if it sells more than your prediction would you say you were wrong! i am thinking it will sell between 250k and 300k including digital for the period

i remember where a certain week was highlighted as a week of bomba's multiple times but it turned out only street fighter really bombed

With the predictions you've done in the past better wait.

 

[L~A]

Almost zero? I doubt it will be an important number.

Kirby Triple Deluxe climbed to 800k, if there is a Kirby with a chance to top 1m again is this.

Really? Well, pretty impressive. I wonder why Nintendo didn't include it in the first wave of Happy Price Selection titles, seems to fit with the audience they're targeting (mainly women / kids who got the console at Christmas).

I guess they didn't want to compete with Planet Robobot (plus it seems to be still be selling well on its own).

 

[test_account]

As Hiska said, DQHII space on shelves were even before DQMJ3, and only this week were replaced.

There were mostly posters of the game, and a small stand at best. But the main stands were for DQHII, that this week vanished in order to promote Joker 3.

I see. Maybe the demo, TV commercial, in-game store promotion and word to mouth is enough for the game to sell well.

 

[Chris1964]

Star Ocean is another one of those series like Summon Night where they stopped making it for a reason and I'm not exactly sure what's supposed to be different in 2016 that makes it appealing again.

It wasn't like this was a series where the last game did great, but the studio moved on to even bigger things. These types of b-tier console oriented JRPGs just aren't major titles anymore in almost every case.

Star Ocean 4 killed whatever possibilities the series had to be relevant again. PS4 version might match the sales of 360, but the majority of additional sales of the late PS3 version will be lost this time.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I noted no one talked about CESA 2016 report...


https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/712706048663150592

 

[DarkLordMalik]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 259.999
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 499.999
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 149.999
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 49.999
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 89.999
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 149.999

.

 

[Fisico]

The definition of an "active" player is quite broad there.
And half of the 3DS' owners didn't play it at all last year ?

 

[Mory Dunz]

Really can't see the new kirby game outdoing Triple Duluxe. Are preorders high or something?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 160,000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 350,000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 100,000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 40,000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 70,000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 160,000

 

[Daft Punk]

Star Ocean is another one of those series like Summon Night where they stopped making it for a reason and I'm not exactly sure what's supposed to be different in 2016 that makes it appealing again.

It wasn't like this was a series where the last game did great, but the studio moved on to even bigger things. These types of b-tier console oriented JRPGs just aren't major titles anymore in almost every case.

Considering how terrible the last game was, is that truly a fair assessment to make?

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Star Ocean is another one of those series like Summon Night where they stopped making it for a reason and I'm not exactly sure what's supposed to be different in 2016 that makes it appealing again.

It wasn't like this was a series where the last game did great, but the studio moved on to even bigger things. These types of b-tier console oriented JRPGs just aren't major titles anymore in almost every case.

While I think that's true for Summon Night, which went a way for a long time before being brought back, I don't think Star Ocean ever really had a major shift.

It's always been a sort of "once a generation" series, and aside from the short gap between the first two games, the gaps have been fairly consistent. There were five years between 2 and 3, six years between 3 and 4, and seven years between 4 and 5. Those gaps have gotten slightly longer, but I'm not sure that amounts to much. They didn't really stop making it, so much as they just kept putting them out on the same, fairly slow, schedule.

Star Ocean 3 sold very well, but they still waited years to do a sequel. I think that this current status is more like business as usual for Star Ocean, even if the last game might have disappointed to some extent. I would guess that the logic for Square and for tri-ace is not so dissimilar to the logic for Star Ocean 4, or for Star Ocean 3. "Star Ocean usually does well, and it feels like it's about time for a new one".

It's possible that logic won't work out, and that Star Ocean 5 will wind up disappointing in sales compared to the last one. But I don't really think this feels any different from a "why now?" perspective than previous titles.

 

[Nirolak]

The definition of an "active" player is quite broad there.
And half of the 3DS' owners didn't play it at all last year ?

It's the existential crisis that dedicated devices tend to face in Japan. Much of their audience ages past them very quickly, and ends up in the gigantic mobile bucket as it fits their lifestyle and/or preferences much better.

That said, being king of children's software is still a sizable market, and that's on top of the other markets the 3DS managed to cobble together, leaving it with respectable numbers.

However, I think this helps paint the picture of why we see a continual downward slope in dedicated devices.

Considering how terrible the last game was, is that truly a fair assessment to make?

Products that are in tune with the market can recover pretty easily from bad entries. That they thought it was worth stopping altogether says a lot about where they felt the market was headed.

While I think that's true for Summon Night, which went a way for a long time before being brought back, I don't think Star Ocean ever really had a major shift.

It's always been a sort of "once a generation" series, and aside from the short gap between the first two games, the gaps have been fairly consistent. There were five years between 2 and 3, six years between 3 and 4, and seven years between 4 and 5. Those gaps have gotten slightly longer, but I'm not sure that amounts to much. They didn't really stop making it, so much as they just kept putting them out on the same, fairly slow, schedule.

Star Ocean 3 sold very well, but they still waited years to do a sequel. I think that this current status is more like business as usual for Star Ocean, even if the last game might have disappointed to some extent. I would guess that the logic for Square and for tri-ace is not so dissimilar to the logic for Star Ocean 4, or for Star Ocean 3. "Star Ocean usually does well, and it feels like it's about time for a new one".

It's possible that logic won't work out, and that Star Ocean 5 will wind up disappointing in sales compared to the last one. But I don't really think this feels any different from a "why now?" perspective than previous titles.

This is getting at what I meant with the studio moving on to other options though. They were putting out Valkyrie Profile with the same publisher at the time. Here, Square Enix wasn't hiring them to do other games in between entries that would help explain the gap.

They weren't even getting hired to do console games in general after Resonance of Fate and were doing a lot of work for hire. We're looking at a studio that was going no where and was offered a chance to try their hand at Star Ocean again as part of Square Enix reviving their mid-tier game business. It's that general revival however that I'm pretty skeptical about, since I don't think Wada was actually wrong from a business perspective when he shut off the output from pretty much everything but the Dragon Quest spin-offs.

That's not to say some of these things won't end up profitable, but I feel we're looking at a bunch of really low margin software that's basically there for prestige and fan relation purposes instead of the core of what's driving the business' return to health, and will not be surprised if we see a whole bunch of them have notable iteration over iteration drops.

Mind, I don't think Square Enix is alone in this type of decision making lately, and I fully understand why development teams that used to work on this kind of stuff would really like to do so again.

 

[Ōkami]

In rather strange news, Square Enix will be releasing Telltale's The Walking Dead games in Japan.

Season 1 releases on June 23rd for PS4 and Vita, Season 2 a week later on the 30th for PS3, PS4 and Vita (which is also the release date for Toukiden 2?)

Interesting choice for platforms there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6SeGw2ZUKw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx9gszOBGUw

 

[Vena]

In rather strange news, Square Enix will be releasing Telltale's The Walking Dead games in Japan.

Season 1 releases on June 23rd for PS4 and Vita, Season 2 a week later on the 30th for PS3, PS4 and Vita (which is also the release date for Toukiden 2?)

Interesting choice for platforms there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6SeGw2ZUKw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hx9gszOBGUw

Wait. That second PS3 and the lack of a PS3 on the first isn't a typo?

If so, I am laughing. Laughing really hard.

 

[Ōkami]

Vita version of Season 1 is digital only.

This is one of the strangest decisions I've ever seen come out of SE yet, not only releasing the 4 year old Season 1 in Japan, but the weird choice of platforms.

 

[mao2]

Wait. That second PS3 and the lack of a PS3 on the first isn't a typo?

If so, I am laughing. Laughing really hard.

Vita version of Season 1 is digital only.

This is one of the strangest decisions I've ever seen come out of SE yet, not only releasing the 4 year old Season 1 in Japan, but the weird choice of platforms.

Walking Dead was released on PS3 back in 2013 by the now defunct Cyberfront.
http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00EOM369M/

 

[Maniel]

Walking Dead was released on PS3 back in 2013 by the now defunct Cyberfront.
http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00EOM369M/

Ok now it makes a little bit more sense. Still a physical vita version of season one would help sales a lot

 

[Takao]

The only weird thing is them advertising TWD: Season 1 being released digitally on Vita. That's because Square Enix published it physically and digitally back in September 2014. The issue with PS3 is a little more complex, as Cyberfront published it physically back in 2013. That publisher has since shut down and as far as I can tell the first season isn't available on PSN in Japan. Season 2 and the PS4 ports are all new to the country.

I don't see how the platform choices are odd. I can't see the iOS/Android versions doing well in Japan and it's not like Xbox or PC are somewhat relevant.

 

[Vena]

Walking Dead was released on PS3 back in 2013 by the now defunct Cyberfront.
http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00EOM369M/

Okay that makes this a lot clearer of a picture.

 

[ULTROS!]

Was Star Ocean 4 a sales disappointment worldwide?

 

[Moor-Angol]

Vita version of Season 1 is digital only.

chigau, Vita has retail version of season 1 + 300 days
english dub with japanese sub

 

[Takao]

Hino has set his eyes on killing another legacy IP. Is Duckroll a fan of Yatterman?

 

[casiopao]

Hino has set his eyes on killing another legacy IP. Is Duckroll a fan of Yatterman?

OMGGGG. Did he think G-Age is not enough damage here? And now, he wanted to move his greasy oily hand to Yatterman? HINO U MONSTER.T_T

 

[DR2K]

Was Star Ocean 4 a sales disappointment worldwide?

Well it had enough sales or potential to make a sequel at least.

 

[noobie]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 150,000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 310,000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 90,000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 38,000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 85,000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 190,000​

 

[Bruno MB]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 215.000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 400.000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 115.000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 50.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 125.000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 205.000

 

[Ravage_Hydra]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 105.000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 340.000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 120.000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 65.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 110.000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 220.000

 

[Orgen]

PREDICTION LEAGUE APRIL 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Mar 28 to May 01):

[PS4] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness (32 days) - 176.000
[3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi (30 days) - 389.000
[PS4 + PSV] One Piece: Burning Blood (11 days) - 107.000
[WIU] Star Fox Zero (11 days) - 64.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (4 days) - 111.000
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot (4 days) - 222.000