Wkd BO 03•25-27•16 - Batman vs Superman (or Grindr hookup gone sideways) bests Bunny

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Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
GET OUT OF MY HEAD!

If there is a "legitimate" example, it's probably a film that is very female driven, since they tend to have very weak Sat increases. For instance, Fifty Shades went up only 11%, Sex and the City went up only 10%, etc.
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Either that or maybe a horror film? Like Friday the 13th if you consider it big budget
 
Twilight New Moon had on 2nd weekend dip on Saturday.. It was a long weekend because of Thanksgiving but that was on Thursday.
 
Breaking Dawn also dipped on its second Saturday.

EDIT: Also Breaking Dawn Part 2.

Of course this is all on Thanksgiving weekend.
 
kswiston said:
Fault in Our Stars is a good example. I wonder what caused that. Friday date night for teen couples?
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As noted, any film that skews way female (80+%) tends to have weak Saturdays. Maybe Friday is more of a girls night out day than Saturday. Also weird, they have really good weekdays in the summer. Note how Fault typically saw sub 40% declines on Monday, and Tuesdays were occasionally bigger than the following Saturday. Not a clue why that is the case.
 
All of y'all rooting for this movie to fail
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I think a 70% drop for Batman vs Superman is possible. My theater was swamped last weekend and this weekend it feels like a regular non blockbuster weekend. I mean it's almost 8 here and we've had 200 ticket sales for the whole day so far. Crazy.
 
Some interesting long range forecasts from Boxoffice.com today:

Initial prediction for X-Men Apocalypse - $124M 4-day weekend, $260M domestic total

Initial prediction for Through the Looking Glass - $74M 4-day weekend, $180M total

They bumped up Civil War to $167M opening weekend and $435M total. I think it was $161M and $425M last weekend.
 
So 70% is no longer a disaster, merely disappointing?

If I understand the talk in this thread, 70% is not coming close to $400M, right? Isn't that looking at <$350M? Less than Deadpool?
 
ThoseDeafMutes said:
They're probably nearing the break even point or have already passed it if the 250ml budget is accurate, yeah?
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Not yet.

No one reported Thursday's international box office, but for the sake of argument, let's say BvS made $20M again and the WW total breaks down as follows (rounded to nearest $5M):

Domestic $210M, China $75M, International $275M

Using the 55% DOM/25% China/40% Intl studio share rough estimate, you get $115.5M from the domestic gross, $18.75M from China, and $110M from overseas. So $245M.

That covers the production budget (if the $250M wasn't lowballing), but they will still have to pay off the worldwide distribution costs, gross participation, etc.

EDIT: BvS' worldwide run should be enough to put the film in the black, with most of the actual profit coming from home video, streaming/TV rights, licensing, etc.
 
Cuburt said:
So 70% is no longer a disaster, merely disappointing?

If I understand the talk in this thread, 70% is not coming close to $400M, right? Isn't that looking at <$350M? Less than Deadpool?
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It sure seems like the odds of Deadpool grossing more than Batman v Superman domestically are rising, yeah.
 
Farsi said:
Sometimes you have to root for something to fail in order to get change.
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I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't want change.

I like the brutal Batman. I like the flawed Superman. I like the serious tone. I like the raw fight scenes. I like the look of Snyder's films.

I'm going to be sad when WB throws all that out the window.
 
kswiston said:
Initial prediction for X-Men Apocalypse - $124M 4-day weekend, $260M domestic total
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Making more than DOFP, why? This film doesn't have the benefit of the original X-Men cast and nothing about it thus far has been setting fandom alight.

If I had to put money on it I'd say that this film finishes closer to First Class, at least in terms of US box office gross, than DOFP.
 
Bobby Roberts said:
You think Deadpool's got another 20 domestic left in the tank?
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Probably not, but it could hit $365M. One more bad weekend, and BvS could easily miss that.

Busty said:
Making more than DOFP, why? This film doesn't have the benefit of the original X-Men cast and nothing about it thus far has been setting fando alight.

If I had to put money on it I'd say that this film finishes closer to First Class, at least in terms of US box office gross.
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Maybe they are banking on DOFP goodwill or something.
 
Busty said:
Making more than DOFP, why? This film doesn't have the benefit of the original X-Men cast and nothing about it thus far has been setting fando alight.

If I had to put money on it I'd say that this film finishes closer to First Class, at least in terms of US box office gross.
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You do make an interesting point that DoFP had the benefit of both sets of casts, but wouldn't the goodwill that DoFP generated help Apocalypse's totals a bit?
 
kmfdmpig said:
You do make an interesting point that DoFP had the benefit of both sets of casts, but wouldn't the goodwill that DoFP generated help Apocalypse's totals a bit?
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Yup. Apocalypse is coming off the most successful entry in the series, and one that was very well received. Top it off with adding in a well known villain, and it should open larger. Unless Singer shits the bed on it, which I don't think he will. He is 3 for 3 with X-Men films now.
 
How well received was DOFP for general auds, though? It's legs weren't much better than mediocre in the end. That's not the be-all-end-all, but when you also consider the main cast isn't coming back and neither is Wolverine, I don't think that there's a ton of goodwill that will be carried over.
 
I don't see Apocalypse doing as well as DOFP. Without Wolverine and the old cast returning, it won't have the same draw.

^what he said
 
PhoncipleBone said:
Yup. Apocalypse is coming off the most successful entry in the series, and one that was very well received. Top it off with adding in a well known villain, and it should open larger. Unless Singer shits the bed on it, which I don't think he will. He is 3 for 3 with X-Men films now.
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Well known to whom X-Men fans? Apocalypse looks fucking ridiculous and he's the titular character.

I grant you that it may open larger but I have a feeling that this X film is going to pale in comparison to DOFP in just about every regard.

kswiston said:
Maybe they are banking on DOFP goodwill or something.
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kmfdmpig said:
You do make an interesting point that DoFP had the benefit of both sets of casts, but wouldn't the goodwill that DoFP generated help Apocalypse's totals a bit?
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It's certainly possible but I have a feeling that Civil War is going to roll over Apocalypse. I've said it before but many (including some at Fox) see DOFP as a disappointment in the Us because this huge X-Men film that brought together all the X 'universes' finished its US box office run with marginally more than the Avengers made in its opening weekend.
 
kswiston said:
Some interesting long range forecasts from Boxoffice.com today:

Initial prediction for X-Men Apocalypse - $124M 4-day weekend, $260M domestic total

Initial prediction for Through the Looking Glass - $74M 4-day weekend, $180M total

They bumped up Civil War to $167M opening weekend and $435M total. I think it was $161M and $425M last weekend.
Click to expand...

People are really expecting Civil War to get a IM3-level bump huh.
 
jett said:
People are really expecting Civil War to get a IM3-level bump huh.
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Why wouldn't it?

Iron Man 2 opened close to $130M six years ago without 3D or the modern IMAX saturation. Opening to less than $160M would basically be the lowest attendance for a film featuring Iron Man since the first one. Even Iron Man 1 would be flirting with $150M when you factor in ticket inflation, 3D, and IMAX.
 
Civil War ain't a Cap movie. It's got his name on it. But that's an Avengers film.

with Spider-Man.

So yeah, there's going to be a bump. It's gonna be a pretty damn noticeable one, too.

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Like, that kinda noticeable bump.
 
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