Support NeoGAF

[googleplex]

Who are "you guys"

Whenever I talk about Bernie fanatics, I always refer to them as such, to separate them from the real Bernie supports who understand the issues and his polices and aren't just subscribing to his personality cult. Or those who believe we can fix the country by pretending to be Joker and burn the whole thing down to cleanse it by fire. Those people, I always specifically refer to as "hardcore supporters" or "fanatics" or just specifically call out r/politics.

I also never use the term "Bernie Bros" because I don't like it.

But please, continue to lump a bunch of random people together for no reason.

"You guys" is the same as "The Establishment" I think.

 

[Clefargle]

One person called him an asshole. One

Sorry I'll edit my post to reflect that

 

[Prodigal Son]

Who are "you guys"

Whenever I talk about Bernie fanatics, I always refer to them as such, to separate them from the real Bernie supports who understand the issues and his polices and aren't just subscribing to his personality cult. Or those who believe we can fix the country by pretending to be Joker and burn the whole thing down to cleanse it by fire. Those people, I always specifically refer to as "hardcore supporters" or "fanatics" or just specifically call out r/politics.

I also never use the term "Bernie Bros" because I don't like it.

But please, continue to lump a bunch of random people together for no reason.

This is a beautiful post. Screenshotted

 

[Quixzlizx]

Yeah, I don't judge people's rationality from their political leanings. There's more to a person than that. You do you though.



I wish you were right. Many college kids don't care unless they're pressed with giving a response. 'Sure, whatever' is the general sentiment.

Ignorance is a worse character flaw than stupidity. Ignorance is willful.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is a beautiful post. Screenshotted

I mean, if you're just waiting for the one moment for me to use "Bernie Bros" or whatever so you can "own me", don't hold your breath. Dude's only going to be relevant for a few more weeks.

I'd use that effort to actually get the man elected.

 

[Square2015]

So Bernie won by 11pts. in a Caucus amongst only Dems, no Indies? Is that right?
It's impressive if so, he continues to narrow in on CLinton.

BTW The Huffpost national average has the gap down to 3% (48 to 45)!
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

 

[Pastry]

So Bernie won by 11pts. in a Caucus amongst only Dems, no Indies? Is that right?
It's impressive if so, he continues to narrow in on CLinton.

BTW The Huffpost national average has the gap down to 3% (48 to 45)!
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

He didn't win any delegates though, tis a loss.

 

[Square2015]

He didn't win any delegates though, tis a loss.

IT's a win because he had been losing or tying among Dems, the independent vote is what had been putting him over. Tide seems to be shifting in his favor.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

IT's a win because he had been losing or tying among Dems, the independent vote is what had been putting him over.

He was expected to do better and needed to do better. It's a loss.

 

[ShironRedshift]

I mean, if you're just waiting for the one moment for me to use "Bernie Bros" or whatever so you can "own me", don't hold your breath. Dude's only going to be relevant for a few more weeks.

I'd use that effort to actually get the man elected.

I wonder, speaking of which... will Sanders actually drop out after New York if it goes as poorly for him as projected, and any remaining slight sliver of a possible path to the nomination for him completely vanishes, or will he really ride it out all the way until the convention at this point? I'm becoming quite convinced it's the latter at this point--it doesn't matter what happens in any of the states. He really seems to be in it for the long game (especially with all the rhetoric over momentum and super-delegates and the like), regardless of what happens, and refuses to even acknowledge his losses at all so I'm becoming increasingly convinced he's in it until the end. Going to be interesting to see what he decides to do at that point and how he alters his campaign strategy and rhetoric, if at all, if he doesn't decide to drop out at that point, in any case.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I wonder, speaking of which... will Sanders actually drop out after New York if it goes as poorly for him as projected, and any slight sliver of a possible path to the nomination for him completely vanishes, or will he really ride it out all the way until the convention at this point? I'm becoming quite convinced it's the latter at this point--it doesn't matter what happens in any of the states. He really seems to be in it for the long game, regardless of what happens, and refuses to even acknowledge his losses at all so I'm becoming increasingly convinced he's in it until the end. Going to be interesting to see what he decides to do at that point and how he alters his campaign strategy and rhetoric, if at all, if he doesn't decide to drop out at that point, in any case.

Losing NY by 10-20 points and then staying in the race would just be sad to watch.

To be honest, I've noticed he hasn't really been mentioning the states after New York all that much. I kind of have a feeling he's getting ready to drop out. New York isn't looking pretty right now.

 

[Ogrekiller]

IT's a win because he had been losing or tying among Dems, the independent vote is what had been putting him over. Tide seems to be shifting in his favor.

Momentum is shifting the other way and fast. His wins are getting narrower and the next firewall is coming up.

 

[Leona Lewis]

Losing NY by 10-20 points and then staying in the race would just be sad to watch.

To be honest, I've noticed he hasn't really been mentioning the states after New York all that much. I kind of have a feeling he's getting ready to drop out. New York isn't looking pretty right now.

I've only seen one Bernie ad in NY (the one with Eric Garner's daughter). And the single Hillary one I've seen also focuses on police brutality (with a focus on Sandra Bland).

I wonder if either one will take a different tack as primary day approaches, because all these ad buys will be wasted money is there's no differentiation between them.

 

[Square2015]

I just checked the Wisconsin exit poll on CNN, among Dems it was: 50-50, Indies: 72-28 (for Sanders).

To go from a 50-50 tie among Dems to an 11pt. win (in Wy) is improvement in my book.

Edit: In MI among Dems: 58-40 in favor of Clinton.

 

[B-Dubs]

I've only seen one Bernie ad in NY (the one with Eric Garner's daughter). And the single Hillary one I've seen also focuses on police brutality (with a focus on Sandra Bland).

I wonder if either one will take a different tack as primary day approaches, because all these ad buys will be wasted money is there's no differentiation between them.

All Hillary's team needs to do is maintain at this point and remind everyone why we elected her to the Senate twice.

 

[Primethius]

I just checked the Wisconsin exit poll on CNN, among Dems it was: 50-50, Indies: 72-28 (for Sanders).

To go from a 50-50 tie among Dems to an 11pt. win (in Wy) is improvement in my book.

Wyoming was a caucus however with only a total of about 5000 votes. Not sure that comparison can be drawn.

 

[Boney]

Losing NY by 10-20 points and then staying in the race would just be sad to watch.

To be honest, I've noticed he hasn't really been mentioning the states after New York all that much. I kind of have a feeling he's getting ready to drop out. New York isn't looking pretty right now.

Not really, he thinks the west is gonna be even better for him because of progressive parts like California. But keep on biting your nails as you hope he drops out

 

[B-Dubs]

Not really, he thinks the west is gonna be even better for him because of progressive parts like California. But keep on biting your nails as you hope he drops out

If he loses NY then that's all she wrote. He'd need to get like 80% in California to even match it.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Not really, he thinks the west is gonna be even better for him because of progressive parts like California. But keep on biting your nails as you hope he drops out

If he loses NY by 20 points, the math for California just becomes silly. He would have to beat his Vermont percentage at that point.

Also nobody mentioned hoping he would drop out. Saying what would be a reasonable estimation of when he'll drop out is not hoping he'll drop out.

Once the math no longer works out, he'll also probably lose support as people stop wanting to give money to the person who has clearly lost.

 

[Ogrekiller]

Not really, he thinks the west is gonna be even better for him because of progressive parts like California. But keep on biting your nails as you hope he drops out

No one's hoping except his fans that hope that he'll win.

 

[Jigorath]

Bernie has had a long and pretty great career in politics. I don't think there's any majority of Clinton supporters that hate him. Though I understand why so many are critical of his fairly poorly run campaign.

Speak for yourself. Dude's an A-Grade asshole.

Okay this probably needs some elaboration.

 

[Steel]

If he loses NY then that's all she wrote. He'd need to get like 80% in California to even match it.

While this is true, Bernie's Wyoming victory speech made it sound like he didn't expect to win in New York. I believe his words were something to the point of saying that he was going to pick up "some" delegates in New York and move on to the western states where he expects to do great.

I honestly wonder what's going through his head right now. Only ways I can see it is: either he doesn't understand how much the delegate math would be against him if he loses New York by any reasonable margin, or he does but is trying to send a message to the DNC to give him more leverage for the "concessions" he wants to ask of them and Hillary.

Also nobody mentioned hoping he would drop out. Saying what would be a reasonable estimation of when he'll drop out is not hoping he'll drop out.

Once the math no longer works out, he'll also probably lose support as people stop wanting to give money to the person who has clearly lost.

The math's been pretty shoddy for awhile now, but the money has still been flowing. I'm not sure the mathematics of the race will be able to stop the money from coming in.

 

[Box of Kittens]

If he loses NY then that's all she wrote. He'd need to get like 80% in California to even match it.

And there's no reason to expect he'll do that well in California. Bernie's big win in Washington may give his supporters hope, but a semi-closed primary is a very different animal from an open caucus. Also California's demographics are more favorable to Hillary than Washington's. The math will become daunting if, as expected, he loses NY.

I don't expect him to drop out though. At this point he's in it until the end regardless of his chances of winning.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The math's been pretty shoddy for awhile now, but the money has still been flowing. I'm not sure the mathematics of the race will be able to stop the money from coming in.

At this point, the math is unlikely, but possible. There's still a path to victory that is slim, but possible.

But if he loses New York it stops being plausible and starts being impossible. At that point he'll start looking scummy for taking money in a race he can't mathematically win.

 

[Square2015]

At this point, the math is unlikely, but possible. There's still a path to victory that is slim, but possible.

But if he loses New York it stops being plausible and starts being impossible. At that point he'll start looking scummy for taking money in a race he can't mathematically win.

What if the gap is less than 10 pts. in NY or even 5?

 

[B-Dubs]

What if the gap is less than 10 pts. in NY or even 5?

If he loses it's pretty much over. He needs a 20-ish point win as it is. Bernie could win NY by 5 and it wouldn't mean shit.

 

[Prodigal Son]

I mean, if you're just waiting for the one moment for me to use "Bernie Bros" or whatever so you can "own me", don't hold your breath. Dude's only going to be relevant for a few more weeks.

I'd use that effort to actually get the man elected.

Ay now. Whats this. I actually liked your post, man

 

[Box of Kittens]

While this is true, Bernie's Wyoming victory speech made it sound like he didn't expect to win in New York. I believe his words were something to the point of saying that he was going to pick up "some" delegates in New York and move on to the western states where he expects to do great.

Honestly what this means for me is further confirmation that his internals are telling him he's in bad shape in New York. His campaign has been consistently trying to lower expectations there, from setting 40% as a "credibility threshold" to suggesting that anything less than matching Bernie's performance in Vermont would be a disappointment for Hillary.

I have to think that Bernie knows this western strategy can't possibly work. Like his talk of winning over superdelegates, it's all about maintaining the appearance of a campaign that can win the nomination.

What if the gap is less than 10 pts. in NY or even 5?

Honestly, Bernie can't afford any loss in New York. The problem is that he needs to make up delegates on Hillary and not only would a loss cause him to fall further behind, it takes a big chunk of delegates off the table. There's no real path to the nomination for him that doesn't involve winning New York.

 

[Loudninja]

What if the gap is less than 10 pts. in NY or even 5?

Does not matter he needs more then slight wins or slight losses even even further behind after today.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I just checked the Wisconsin exit poll on CNN, among Dems it was: 50-50, Indies: 72-28 (for Sanders).

To go from a 50-50 tie among Dems to an 11pt. win (in Wy) is improvement in my book.

Edit: In MI among Dems: 58-40 in favor of Clinton.

You seem to not realise the effect of the demographics of these places.

 

[1st Course]

Cruz got all the delegates in Colorado.

Gap now < 200

Ted Cruz continued his dominance in Colorado on Saturday, winning all of the final 13 delegates to the Republican National Convention available at the state’s convention.

The Texas senator has now won all 34 delegates up for grabs in the state and is now fewer than 200 delegates behind Donald Trump in the race to the 1,237 needed to clinch the Republican nomination.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/10/ted-cruz-sweeps-colorado-amid-trump-camps-disarray

 

[You Know Nothing]

You seem to not realise the effect of the demographics of these places.

Only white people matter tho.

(For the record, I'm a gay white male who voted for Hillary in the Ohio primary.)

 

[besada]

Hey, could you all seriously shut up about how mean the other side is being to you? If you think a user is breaking the rules, notify a moderator. Otherwise, address the topic, or go do something else.

 

[Holmes]

I really don't understand how comparing Democrats in Wyoming to Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan matters? I mean Clinton lost Democrats in New Hampshire, then went on to win them in South Carolina by 50%. She won Democrats with over 60% of them in Ohio, the same night she won them by over 30% in Florida, then tied them in Wisconsin. It's pointless to compare them state by state, even more useless to compare them between primaries and caucuses.

 

[giga]

Latest NY polls.

 

[Macam]

On one hand, I sort of wonder why that registration date is that far in advance, but then I really have no idea how that compares more broadly to other states. Six months isn't that long ago; it just feels like it with these interminable presidential election seasons we have.

Hey, could you all seriously shut up about how mean the other side is being to you? If you think a user is breaking the rules, notify a moderator. Otherwise, address the topic, or go do something else.

This made me laugh. If that actually happened, we'd have like 1-2 page Poli-GAF threads, tops. Godspeed.

 

[tbm24]

On one hand, I sort of wonder why that registration date is that far in advance, but then I really have no idea how that compares more broadly to other states. Six months isn't that long ago; it just feels like it with these interminable presidential election seasons we have.



This made me laugh. If that actually happened, we'd have like 1-2 page Poli-GAF threads, tops. Godspeed.

I believe the main benefit of the registration to change party being months before is to discourage opportunistic party switching votes.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

The latest Sienna poll has Sanders within 10 points, 52-42. Margin of error is 4.5. Get noided, my fellow NYers! If he can finish within single digits, this could be a huge news story. Sanders campaign has to really put the pedal to the metal this last week, and then do whatever they can to get the youth out on the 19th.

 

[B-Dubs]

The latest Sienna poll has Sanders within 10 points, 52-42. Margin of error is 4.5. Get noided, my fellow NYers! If he can finish within single digits, this could be a huge news story. Sanders campaign has to really put the pedal to the metal this last week, and then do whatever they can to get the youth out on the 19th.

Eh, it won't change the math. He needs a big win, not a small loss.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Eh, it won't change the math. He needs a big win, not a small loss.

Yeah, I wasn't talking in terms of winning the primary. I just want him to get the coverage and exposure. It's dividends for 2024 and whichever candidate follows in his footsteps.

And incidentally, numbers do "change the math," literally.

 

[B-Dubs]

Yeah, I wasn't talking in terms of winning the primary. I just want him to get the coverage and exposure. It's dividends for 2024 and whichever candidate follows in his footsteps.

And incidentally, numbers do "change the math," literally.

Not in a good way for him.

The next Bernie will likely be de Blasio, who is better than Bernie on pretty much everything.

How his legacy turns out is going to depend less on the primary and more on how he ends it.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Not in a good way for him.

How his legacy turns out is going to depend less on the primary and more on how he ends it.

Ah, ok. I'll watch for that.

 

[dramatis]

Copying my post from PoliGAF regarding special elections for the NY state legislature.

There's going to be special elections for the 59th, 62nd and 65th Assembly Districts in NY state. Check your AD to see if you have to vote for more than presidential primary on April 19.

Ballotpedia has some details.

 

[Leona Lewis]

The next Bernie will likely be de Blasio, who is better than Bernie on pretty much everything.

de Blasio is such a boss.

The fact that NYC no longer plunges into a standstill the moment a flake of snow touches the ground alone qualifies him to be future President of the United States of America.

He also has a loin-tinglingly massive dick.

 

[giga]

So unless the last debate drastically changed something, next Tuesday's outcome should be pretty clear, yeah?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

 

[eBay Huckster]

You never know, maybe spending $110K to shake the Pope's hand for a few seconds (after begging and scraping the Vatican for an invite to an unrelated conference) will provide a groundswell of Catholic support that will swing thahahahaha I can't even entertain this fucking delusional thought for a full post

 

[Unknown Soldier]

You never know, maybe spending $110K to shake the Pope's hand for a few seconds will provide a groundswell of Catholic support that will swing thahahahaha I can't even entertain this fucking delusional thought for a full post

Ah so this is the new talking point now that it has been disproven that "he wasn't invited" and "he didn't even meet the Pope".

Meanwhile Hillary isn't even in New York either, she's in California doing some big corporate fundraiser because the $140 million she and Bill earned the last 8 years isn't enough. You might as well be voting for Romney!

 

[eBay Huckster]

Ah so this is the new talking point now that it has been disproven that "he wasn't invited" and "he didn't even meet the Pope".

Meanwhile Hillary isn't even in New York either, she's in California doing some big corporate fundraiser because the $140 million she and Bill earned the last 8 years isn't enough. You might as well be voting for Romney!

I don't know, did Romney do a shit job of raising money for downticket candidates and then make an unnecessary overseas trip with shit optics to try and build his foreign policy cred and/or pander to Catholics?

Spoiler

(Well, he did the second thing, so that's one more thing he has in common with Sanders aside from all the ironic flip-flops.)

Because you're barking up the wrong tree there, son.

He wasn't invited by the Pope, he didn't meet with him in a meaningful capacity, and he spent $110,000 in campaign funds on a private jet with lobster sliders to see someone he could've met with in the US last year and probably in a more meaningful capacity than a hi, shake hands, bye. He didn't even "meet" long enough to get a damn picture!

In comparison:

And the day this trip started, Clinton was in Harlem playing dominoes with seniors. Not gallivanting off to Rome to preach to the choir.

 

[Hoho for breakfast]

So unless the last debate drastically changed something, next Tuesday's outcome should be pretty clear, yeah?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

Since the primary is super closed I'll be surprised if he can come within 10 points. I'm 100% a Sanders supporter and while I'm hoping for a miracle, I'm not expecting things to go too well. Maybe by next election people will have opened their eyes enough to look around and finally see what's going on. I may still be hoping for a miracle.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Their eyes are open. That's why both candidates under the Democratic banner are leading all serious opposition. Disagreeing with Saint Bernie doesn't mean your eyes aren't open, it means you maybe don't think his particular brand of socialism is worth its salt. Like what NeoGAF forums poster and notable Actual Socialist pigeon, among other people, has been saying for most of this campaign.