Adding some points to and reposting my 4am rant last night....
Excellent OP Chubs, I think you hit a lot of great points. PS4K makes a lot of sense from a technological and competitive standpoint. I find a lot of people don't like the idea because of irrational or theoretical fears, that stem from their expectations being challenged. I think it's important to take some assumptions that are at the heart of those expectations, and show why they aren't valid:
1. Sony can significantly upgrade the hardware every 6 years and start a new console generation
This isn't true anymore. The rate of technological improvement is slowing. By most measures, the jump to PS4 was smaller than the jump to PS3, which was smaller than the jump to PS2 from PS1. The heart of any console is it's GPU, and the power that a GPU can produce at a console price point is primarily driven by the fabrication processes available at the time. We'll be at 14nm this year, which would have been a 5 year timeframe since the last jump to 28nm in 2011. For reference The PS3 was produced at 90nm and there were fabrication process changes every two years during the life of the system. It could be another 5 years until the next fabrication process is available. This means that a PS5 in 2019 would only be marginally more powerful than PS4K in 2016 as any improvements would have to do with efficiencies in GPU design and not technological leaps.
2. When the next system is announced the current system becomes obsolete
This is how things used to work, but that's not how it's going to work here. When next generations are announced and released, it's typically aligned with the trailing of of sales of the current gen. The PS4 is in the prime of it's life, and having its best year. Every Playstation has sold more after being 3 years old than before being 3 years old. Why? Primarily it's price. Sony would be insane to forgo the future sales potential of a $299 or even $199 PS4 to the 10s of millions of price conscious buyers. The PS4 will continue to be sold and supported for years and will likely eclipse the 80M units. It's the 'base' level of function for any games going forward.
So what's the business reason for PS4K?
1. "Generations" are an antiquated and increasingly risky proposition. Developers throwing out their code, ignoring millions of consoles to support the "next gen" console is wasteful and financially irresponsible. We saw plenty of games cross-gen games at the start of the generation this time around. That was compatibility with consoles that were 7-8 years old at the time. Developing games is just too costly to rely solely on the launch units, and as prices go up will be too costly to rely solely on the first year or second year instal bases. Publishers need to have a large reliable install base for their incredibly expensive to produce video games. Having cross-generational support being built into the ecosystem is a good thing in the long run. Not to mention that technology has reached a point were consoles can keep up with creativity. The boundaries and limitations on creators have been lifted for the most part. Look at the top PS4 games. How many of them, in terms of game design weren't possible on the previous generation? GTAV is one of the most advanced video games ever created, and it runs on consoles released in 2005. I have a hard time imagining that most designed for PS4K, couldn't be possible on a PS4.
2. Playstation enthusiasts are willing to give Sony money but are only asked for money once every generation. Why not give those people something meaningful to buy that only entrenches their dedication to your brand? There are people who want a console, and specifically a Playstation console that are willing to pay more and buy another system for upgraded performance. Their PS4s will mostly find their way to the secondary market, and increase install base.
3. Choice is going to expand the market. Having a "lower" end and a "higher" end system will expand the types of buyers that Playstation can reach. PS4 will sell to entry level, cost conscious gamers, and families. PS4K will sell to enthusiast level gamers, graphics conscious gamers, and technology early adopters. PS4K will invite more buyers into playstation, whether it be someone who was on the fence about getting a gaming PC because the PS4 was not that powerful, someone who wants more 4k content, or someone that just wants the most powerful console available.
4. Competition. This a a big one, more than most recognize right now. The technology is going to be a available this year to make a video game console that's 2.5x more powerful than the PS4, for around $399. Given the off the shelf component and x86 architecture of the PS4 and xbox one, it would be easy for Microsoft, Nintendo or another company to enter the console market with a materially more powerful system than the PS4 and have that system be easy to port to. As noted above, technology might mean that if someone else were to release a PS4K-spec-like system this year, waiting another 3 years for the PS5 might only mean a marginally more powerful system that's 3 years late. Someone could easily come in and distrupt the market. It makes sense to get a head of that, and not lose ground to competitors on technology. Sony can't afford to be complacent.
5. Sony is the current market leader. There are two things important to recognize about Sony's position as the leader. Firstly, Sony want to lock users in to the Playstation eco-system, which chubs covered well. Secondly, this paradigm shift, which is good for the industry, needs to come from a position of strength, not a position of weakness. As the current frontrunner int he console war, sony has the power to introduce the iterative console and not have people wonder about moves of desperation or admittance of failure. The new PS4 is the next big thing.
6. The technology is there. 14nm is going to make it possible to get a performance boost for the GPU, while maintaining a reasonable price point. It's going be available later in 2016 should Sony choose to use it. As described above, it's unclear what a PS5 might be capable of in 2019 or 2020, and PS4K might be the best option, as it aligns with a shift in fabrication process. Further, modifying an x86 architecture design isn't as costly as a full console design cycle has been in the past.
The 4K Mandate. Sony produces 4K movies and TV shows, sells 4K TVs, UHD-blu-rays, cam corders, etc. It makes sense for them to sell a Playstation hat might influence TV purchasing behaviour, or provide avenues for their existing TV owners to purchase 4K software.
Fears? Let's go over some of the more rational ones.
An additional SKU means my game will be less optimized. Games are buggy as it is right now, and the PS4K is not going to help things. If you feel this way, you're right. However, you couldn't say to what extent PS4K is going to impact quality. There are a lot of factors that go into how optimized a game is, and you could point at any number of things that would lead a game to be "less optimized". If you agree with this you must also agree that the following scenarios means your game is less optimized:
- Introduction of the Nintendo NX
- If developers decide to add a new level or feature during development
- If devs decide to take two weeks off at christmas
At the end of the day, it's up to the developers to manage their games and allocate resources accordingly. Barring some isolated incidences, they are generally good at doing it, and ship out quality products because they take pride in what they do.
PS4 games are going to run like shit Targeting higher specs will leave the PS4 version performing poorly. Anybody else play Fallout 4, or the Witcher 3 at launch? This already happens. Devs have seemingly already been targeting higher specs than the PS4 offers. As PC specs increase and the gap widens, these situations will only become more frequent. It happened at the trail end of last generation as well. Will the PS4K accelerate this process? We'll have to see, but even then, it will be next to impossible to attribute PS4 performance issues solely on the PS4K's existence. You must also consider that the PS4 will still be sold and supported for many years, and that with the install base it has, it's not exactly going to be an afterthought for developers, who want to sell as many games as possible. Further, we see how Sony has been introduced the PS4 and PS4K ecosystem. PS4 is "base" and PS4K is an enhancement, and not what some of the earlier leaks may have mistakenly indicated.
Multiplayer is going to be unbalanced. This could very well happen. materially higher frame rate could be a killer to online competition. Let's hope that developers are competent, and I think they are, and will not allow that. One thing to consider is that the input lag on your TV is likely to play a bigger factor in control responsiveness than the jump from 30fps (~32ms lag) to 60fps (~16ms lag), given that TVs can introduce anywhere between 19 and 90ms of lag.
Change is bad because and will anger consumers. Some people expected to have the most powerful Playstation for 6 years when they bought their PS4. Regardless of whether it's logical to be upset about someone having the option to buy something better than you... Change is important for growth. When nintendo introduced the Super Nintendo there was public outrage, it made it to headline news. Nintendo was betraying all of it's consumers buy releasing a "Super Nintendo" that didn't play it's predecessors games and vice versa. Change upsets people, it's a given. But change is necessary for growth and improvement. Sony is taking a calculated risk, just like Nintendo did 25 years ago by introducing the the concept of "generations". Change can be bad, but it's not inherently bad.
Lastly, the arguments that just make no sense to me
PS4 is now shit. No it's not - it's not becoming retroactively less powerful. It has the same value proposition it always had. The PS4 you purchased or intend to purchase has the same capabilities it's always had.
I'm being forced to buy a new console No you're not. If you choose to buy a PS4K, it's because it provides a value proposition that speaks to your interests. You want a more powerful console and are willing to pay the asking price. That's just a need you didn't realize you had because traditionally, there was never anything to fill it. Demand and Supply at work, no reason to be salty over somebody offering something you want.
40 million PS4 owners are now second class citizens No they're not. PS4 and PS4K users differ only in the power of their systems, and will not be treated any differently. They will have the same games, the same services, the same features, the same peripherals, the same PSN sales, etc. Honda does not consider civic buyers second class citizens to Accord buyers. PS4 owners who feel like second class citizens only feel that way because they are selectively comparing their console against PS4K. If you care about graphics, sure there's reason to be jealous. However, there's always been reason to be jealous. High end PCs exist, and for 90+% of games, have a better performing version. PS4 owners did not have the highest fidelity experience prior to the PS4K.
Sony is taking a dump on all PS4 owners. This comes in two flavors: a) Sony should have released the PS4K to start with. and b) sony is fucking over everyone who bought a PS4 by devaluing their system. The PS4K couldn't have existed at a reasonable price point in 2013. PS4 buy any measure, is a great success. You can't argue with he results it's had at $399. Loss leaders are a thing of the past. it's not a responsible business model, and there was no way PS4K level performance was going to make it into a console sized box in 2013 for $399. In regards to devaluation... prices go down over time, whether price is dropped or a new model is introduced. PS4 was going to continue to drop in price and the introduction of the PS4K does not change that.
Consumers are going to be confused. Again, no. Most consumers don't set their watch to console cycles and generations. Most consumers understand that any consumer technology iterates, whether it be cars, phones, laptops, tablets, TVs, computers, bicycles, etc. They will see the PS4K as they see any other consumer electronics device in history, "The new one performs better". It's not a confusing concept, it's the norm. Multiple SKUs is the norm. low-end and high-end price points is the norm. Regular iteration is the norm.
I think this will be a great thing for the industry. Many are asking why change a model that works? Well sure it works, but what if it could work better? I think it will. In the long run there will be more consoles in homes and more software sold.
Excellent OP Chubs, I think you hit a lot of great points. PS4K makes a lot of sense from a technological and competitive standpoint. I find a lot of people don't like the idea because of irrational or theoretical fears, that stem from their expectations being challenged. I think it's important to take some assumptions that are at the heart of those expectations, and show why they aren't valid:
1. Sony can significantly upgrade the hardware every 6 years and start a new console generation
This isn't true anymore. The rate of technological improvement is slowing. By most measures, the jump to PS4 was smaller than the jump to PS3, which was smaller than the jump to PS2 from PS1. The heart of any console is it's GPU, and the power that a GPU can produce at a console price point is primarily driven by the fabrication processes available at the time. We'll be at 14nm this year, which would have been a 5 year timeframe since the last jump to 28nm in 2011. For reference The PS3 was produced at 90nm and there were fabrication process changes every two years during the life of the system. It could be another 5 years until the next fabrication process is available. This means that a PS5 in 2019 would only be marginally more powerful than PS4K in 2016 as any improvements would have to do with efficiencies in GPU design and not technological leaps.
2. When the next system is announced the current system becomes obsolete
This is how things used to work, but that's not how it's going to work here. When next generations are announced and released, it's typically aligned with the trailing of of sales of the current gen. The PS4 is in the prime of it's life, and having its best year. Every Playstation has sold more after being 3 years old than before being 3 years old. Why? Primarily it's price. Sony would be insane to forgo the future sales potential of a $299 or even $199 PS4 to the 10s of millions of price conscious buyers. The PS4 will continue to be sold and supported for years and will likely eclipse the 80M units. It's the 'base' level of function for any games going forward.
So what's the business reason for PS4K?
1. "Generations" are an antiquated and increasingly risky proposition. Developers throwing out their code, ignoring millions of consoles to support the "next gen" console is wasteful and financially irresponsible. We saw plenty of games cross-gen games at the start of the generation this time around. That was compatibility with consoles that were 7-8 years old at the time. Developing games is just too costly to rely solely on the launch units, and as prices go up will be too costly to rely solely on the first year or second year instal bases. Publishers need to have a large reliable install base for their incredibly expensive to produce video games. Having cross-generational support being built into the ecosystem is a good thing in the long run. Not to mention that technology has reached a point were consoles can keep up with creativity. The boundaries and limitations on creators have been lifted for the most part. Look at the top PS4 games. How many of them, in terms of game design weren't possible on the previous generation? GTAV is one of the most advanced video games ever created, and it runs on consoles released in 2005. I have a hard time imagining that most designed for PS4K, couldn't be possible on a PS4.
2. Playstation enthusiasts are willing to give Sony money but are only asked for money once every generation. Why not give those people something meaningful to buy that only entrenches their dedication to your brand? There are people who want a console, and specifically a Playstation console that are willing to pay more and buy another system for upgraded performance. Their PS4s will mostly find their way to the secondary market, and increase install base.
3. Choice is going to expand the market. Having a "lower" end and a "higher" end system will expand the types of buyers that Playstation can reach. PS4 will sell to entry level, cost conscious gamers, and families. PS4K will sell to enthusiast level gamers, graphics conscious gamers, and technology early adopters. PS4K will invite more buyers into playstation, whether it be someone who was on the fence about getting a gaming PC because the PS4 was not that powerful, someone who wants more 4k content, or someone that just wants the most powerful console available.
4. Competition. This a a big one, more than most recognize right now. The technology is going to be a available this year to make a video game console that's 2.5x more powerful than the PS4, for around $399. Given the off the shelf component and x86 architecture of the PS4 and xbox one, it would be easy for Microsoft, Nintendo or another company to enter the console market with a materially more powerful system than the PS4 and have that system be easy to port to. As noted above, technology might mean that if someone else were to release a PS4K-spec-like system this year, waiting another 3 years for the PS5 might only mean a marginally more powerful system that's 3 years late. Someone could easily come in and distrupt the market. It makes sense to get a head of that, and not lose ground to competitors on technology. Sony can't afford to be complacent.
5. Sony is the current market leader. There are two things important to recognize about Sony's position as the leader. Firstly, Sony want to lock users in to the Playstation eco-system, which chubs covered well. Secondly, this paradigm shift, which is good for the industry, needs to come from a position of strength, not a position of weakness. As the current frontrunner int he console war, sony has the power to introduce the iterative console and not have people wonder about moves of desperation or admittance of failure. The new PS4 is the next big thing.
6. The technology is there. 14nm is going to make it possible to get a performance boost for the GPU, while maintaining a reasonable price point. It's going be available later in 2016 should Sony choose to use it. As described above, it's unclear what a PS5 might be capable of in 2019 or 2020, and PS4K might be the best option, as it aligns with a shift in fabrication process. Further, modifying an x86 architecture design isn't as costly as a full console design cycle has been in the past.
The 4K Mandate. Sony produces 4K movies and TV shows, sells 4K TVs, UHD-blu-rays, cam corders, etc. It makes sense for them to sell a Playstation hat might influence TV purchasing behaviour, or provide avenues for their existing TV owners to purchase 4K software.
Fears? Let's go over some of the more rational ones.
An additional SKU means my game will be less optimized. Games are buggy as it is right now, and the PS4K is not going to help things. If you feel this way, you're right. However, you couldn't say to what extent PS4K is going to impact quality. There are a lot of factors that go into how optimized a game is, and you could point at any number of things that would lead a game to be "less optimized". If you agree with this you must also agree that the following scenarios means your game is less optimized:
- Introduction of the Nintendo NX
- If developers decide to add a new level or feature during development
- If devs decide to take two weeks off at christmas
At the end of the day, it's up to the developers to manage their games and allocate resources accordingly. Barring some isolated incidences, they are generally good at doing it, and ship out quality products because they take pride in what they do.
PS4 games are going to run like shit Targeting higher specs will leave the PS4 version performing poorly. Anybody else play Fallout 4, or the Witcher 3 at launch? This already happens. Devs have seemingly already been targeting higher specs than the PS4 offers. As PC specs increase and the gap widens, these situations will only become more frequent. It happened at the trail end of last generation as well. Will the PS4K accelerate this process? We'll have to see, but even then, it will be next to impossible to attribute PS4 performance issues solely on the PS4K's existence. You must also consider that the PS4 will still be sold and supported for many years, and that with the install base it has, it's not exactly going to be an afterthought for developers, who want to sell as many games as possible. Further, we see how Sony has been introduced the PS4 and PS4K ecosystem. PS4 is "base" and PS4K is an enhancement, and not what some of the earlier leaks may have mistakenly indicated.
Multiplayer is going to be unbalanced. This could very well happen. materially higher frame rate could be a killer to online competition. Let's hope that developers are competent, and I think they are, and will not allow that. One thing to consider is that the input lag on your TV is likely to play a bigger factor in control responsiveness than the jump from 30fps (~32ms lag) to 60fps (~16ms lag), given that TVs can introduce anywhere between 19 and 90ms of lag.
Change is bad because and will anger consumers. Some people expected to have the most powerful Playstation for 6 years when they bought their PS4. Regardless of whether it's logical to be upset about someone having the option to buy something better than you... Change is important for growth. When nintendo introduced the Super Nintendo there was public outrage, it made it to headline news. Nintendo was betraying all of it's consumers buy releasing a "Super Nintendo" that didn't play it's predecessors games and vice versa. Change upsets people, it's a given. But change is necessary for growth and improvement. Sony is taking a calculated risk, just like Nintendo did 25 years ago by introducing the the concept of "generations". Change can be bad, but it's not inherently bad.
Lastly, the arguments that just make no sense to me
PS4 is now shit. No it's not - it's not becoming retroactively less powerful. It has the same value proposition it always had. The PS4 you purchased or intend to purchase has the same capabilities it's always had.
I'm being forced to buy a new console No you're not. If you choose to buy a PS4K, it's because it provides a value proposition that speaks to your interests. You want a more powerful console and are willing to pay the asking price. That's just a need you didn't realize you had because traditionally, there was never anything to fill it. Demand and Supply at work, no reason to be salty over somebody offering something you want.
40 million PS4 owners are now second class citizens No they're not. PS4 and PS4K users differ only in the power of their systems, and will not be treated any differently. They will have the same games, the same services, the same features, the same peripherals, the same PSN sales, etc. Honda does not consider civic buyers second class citizens to Accord buyers. PS4 owners who feel like second class citizens only feel that way because they are selectively comparing their console against PS4K. If you care about graphics, sure there's reason to be jealous. However, there's always been reason to be jealous. High end PCs exist, and for 90+% of games, have a better performing version. PS4 owners did not have the highest fidelity experience prior to the PS4K.
Sony is taking a dump on all PS4 owners. This comes in two flavors: a) Sony should have released the PS4K to start with. and b) sony is fucking over everyone who bought a PS4 by devaluing their system. The PS4K couldn't have existed at a reasonable price point in 2013. PS4 buy any measure, is a great success. You can't argue with he results it's had at $399. Loss leaders are a thing of the past. it's not a responsible business model, and there was no way PS4K level performance was going to make it into a console sized box in 2013 for $399. In regards to devaluation... prices go down over time, whether price is dropped or a new model is introduced. PS4 was going to continue to drop in price and the introduction of the PS4K does not change that.
Consumers are going to be confused. Again, no. Most consumers don't set their watch to console cycles and generations. Most consumers understand that any consumer technology iterates, whether it be cars, phones, laptops, tablets, TVs, computers, bicycles, etc. They will see the PS4K as they see any other consumer electronics device in history, "The new one performs better". It's not a confusing concept, it's the norm. Multiple SKUs is the norm. low-end and high-end price points is the norm. Regular iteration is the norm.
I think this will be a great thing for the industry. Many are asking why change a model that works? Well sure it works, but what if it could work better? I think it will. In the long run there will be more consoles in homes and more software sold.
