I'm really not predicting anything, which is not understood. I'm summarizing what's coming from multiple papers. My guessing release dates has been wrong but the papers I am quoting are also wrong on that for some reason.
Examples:
The Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo paper to the EU power board stated the UHD firmware update would occur Jan 2016 and I had expected it to occur, before finding this paper that appears to have been written April 2015 and posted on the Internet Feb 2016, at the 6 month major firmware update period about October 2015. That didn't happen.
The FCC mandated that the Cable Companies support Vidipath June 2015 and they did so but no other company released the firmware updates to support being a client to this date 14 months later. The
Vidipath webpage even quotes this with the comment it's coming soon.
Sony posted a Job to support embedded Playready in the PS3, PS4 and Vita Oct 2014 but it hasn't been used yet by any third party app. Embedded Playready is required by Vidipath and is also required by 4K cloud streaming. At this point the Netflix app on the PS3 and PS4 has the DRM in the app not embedded in the platform.
HTML5 <video> MSE EME is not in the PS3 or PS4 browser and it's APIs are used by all UHD media. ooVoo has not been implemented yet and it uses the same native libraries as APIs from Southbridge.
UHD media is based on open source HTML5 plus W3C extensions and DRM requires the embedded parts of Playready, the player, codecs, encryption (AACS 2, HDCP 2.2, Miracast, WMDRM - Playready ND (Vidipath DTCP-IP)), DLNA and transcoding take place in the same trusted boot TEE which in the PS4 is Southbridge.
Notice that the features that are overdue all require APIs from Southbridge.
The HTML5 W3C extensions for TV are created with feedback from FCC ATSC 3 which is supposed to reach candidate status Q1 2017. This may be the reason for the delay.
Where it's speculation is taking the fact that Sony has a licence for an UHD blu-ray embedded (Game Console and stand alone) player as well as a PC application player while Microsoft has neither and coming to the conclusion that Sony is writing the player for the XB1. This is becoming a greater probability as we are getting closer to the consoles releasing a UHD blu-ray firmware update and still no license for Microsoft. This will continue to be speculation up until days before the firmware update.