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AP: Clinton clinches Democratic Nomination

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So, did some delegate calculations and here are some fun facts for those who think Bernie could turn things around today and win the majority of pledged delegates:

1. Bernie needs to win California by at least 10 points. If he fails to do this, he can't succeed regardless of how well he does everywhere else (As in, 100% of the delegates from everywhere but California would not be enough if he doesn't get a 10 point lead in california). Note that literally every poll conducted in California has had Clinton ahead
2. If every other state ties on votes, He'd need a 64% lead in california to overcome Clinton
3. In order to win a majority of delegates, he needs over 70% of the remaining delegates to side with him

I don't think the campaign (at least the people who are serious in his campaign) care about 1, 2, or 3 anymore and are just holding onto "Just you wait! Superdelegates will see only we can beat Trump and switch!"
 
You will all be much happier and discussion will be much better if you stop trying to engage every person who doesn't want to vote for Hillary to show them why they are wrong. Please stop.

Call out trump people all you want but leave others alone. It's tiresome.
Oh, so now the mods are encouraging people to vote for Trump?!?!?
 
I wasn't really on GAF in 08, but I imagine people fighting each other on both sides here is just the exhaustion that comes at the end of a long primary. I feel like both sides will need a week or two to really come to terms with one another.
 
If every other state ties he needs 80% in California to catch up to Hillary's pledged count.

285=475*x-475*(1-x)

x=0.8

Some sources lump a state's pledged and super delegates together, which might be the reason your numbers are off.

I was using a delegate calculator to calculate results, so it may not be completely accurate in all cases, especially since in ties with odd numbers of delegates it doesn't just leave a delegate out. Regardless, winning at 80% isn't much more likely than winning at 82%. Especially when he's down in literally every poll
 


So all bernie supporters are extremists now?

I just dont find any of these examples helpful considering how crazy this entire cycle is

Nutjobs are a dime a dozen in this climate
No, just the ones that would vote for Trump or not vote at all instead of voting for Hillary.

The reasonable ones are already on board with Hillary because they realize having a liberal Supreme Court for the next few decades will do far more for the progressive cause than any one presidential candidate.
 
Fuck inspirational. At the end of the day Hillary has never been 'too busy running for President' to have a detailed answer on a policy question. We don't need to be inspired. Obama got that done a while ago. We need competent governance and we need to make sure the Supreme Court never sees a Trump nominee. Progress is moving forward through coalitions and through the courts, not through revolutions. If the other side wasn't actively trying to take us back to the 1950s, we could run the most ideologically pure candidate we could find and purge anyone we didn't agree with on every single issue, but that's not the current reality.

^ Agreed.

"I'm not inspired enough to care about how myself, my friends, my family, and my children are going to live the rest of their lives". What a lame excuse.

Trump's America has nothing in common with Clinton's America. Decide which outcome you prefer and cast a goddamn vote.
 
I honestly can't understand how you found his comment sexist. A lot of people don't find her inspiring. Get over it.

Describing the importance of the first time a woman has been nominated as a candidate of a major political party for President as an instance of tokenism is sexist.
 

Hmm, let's not do this.

Also, fellow Hillary supporters: Just let whatever happens happen. We have 5 months. If people want to join us, great. If they don't, that's on them. I disagree vehemently with not voting for Hillary in a Hillary v. Trump matchup, but I don't see a reason to belittle someone on the internet.
 
^

"I'm not inspired enough to care about how myself, my friends, my family, and my children are going to live the rest of their lives". What a lame excuse.

Trump's America has nothing in common with Clinton's America. Decide which outcome you prefer and cast a goddamn vote.
But this guy sounds like a Hilary supporter
 
I don't know why I didn't think of this before, but Hillary has been essentially fighting 2v1 this past month. Trump slamming her from the right and Bernie hasn't taken his foot off the gas at all. Pretty impressive that she is still able to stay on top.

Say what you want about Hillary, but election-wise she has been through hell and back. She has had just about everything thrown at her over the past 8-10 years and is still able to get the nomination of her party and lead in the general election polls. Nothing can stop her.
 
I am completely and utterly shocked. /s

It's been over for the last few months or so, but now it's officially called.

I'm still not crazy about Hillary, but I will vote for because she is leaps and bounds better than Trump. However, I used to be a Bernie supporter, but after the shenanigans a week or two ago, he really dropped in my book. So at this point it's I have a hard time even caring that Bernie lost because he probably wouldn't have been better than Hillary.

That said, I wanted to say a few things that people should keep in mind:

1. This election is completely different than any other. Everyone says that for every election, but this time, it really is the case. We have a blatant racist businessman running, completely unlike any other Republican candidate we have seen. Even his own party doesn't like him. Mitt Romney and John McCain, and more would all look like Obama-quality presidents compared to Trump. Hell Bush looks like a good president compared to him, and keep in mind Bush was pretty awful. There is only one logical way to vote, as the other option is objectively terrible. "But Hylian, third parties-" Hush you, I'm getting to that.

2. Don't vote third party or not at all. Don't get me wrong here, I'm not crazy about Hillary, but third party candidates do not have near enough steam to beat Hillary nor Trump. If Bernie, who whether you like him or not ran a good campaign, couldn't beat Hillary, what makes you think the third party candidate you want is going to beat Trump or Hillary? Not voting is of course, absolutely nothing, and might as well be a vote for Trump. I have a feeling probably the demographic most likely to not vote are the slightly right or slightly left leaning ones that Trump is completely off limits for, and just don't like Hillary. Trump has his devout followers, and he has the numbers to prove it. Hillary does not have this in the bag against him, and she needs every vote she can get here.

3. Like others have said, the Supreme Court is a big one here. Even if you don't care about the president, at the very least vote Hillary for that.

4. Don't be one of those "Bernie or bust" people. This goes along with the third party thing, but that won't gain near enough steam to beat Trump. Writing Bernie in or something will not help, don't waste your vote like that.

This election is important, especially given what's at stake with a potential Trump presidency. Make the only logical choice here.
 
I don't think you understand how insulting and sexist this statement is. There are women alive today who were born into a country where women did not have the right to vote. One political party is hellbent on taking away a women's right to their body, they want to force a woman to carry a pregnancy to term. 80% of Congress is male and our country has never been lead by a woman.

I honestly don't understand how you can't find any inspiration in Clinton's nomination.

If you treat someone as a valid candidate because of factors which have nothing to do with their ability to be president (gender, race, religion, etc.), that's tokenism. It's significant that a non-white man who was qualified to be president achieved that post, and it's significant that a woman who is qualified to be president is poised to achieve that post. But qualifications are key. Not everyone agrees on Hillary's qualifications or at least desirability as a candidate, obviously.
 
You know what inspires me? Knowing I, as a minority, have a lot less allies on the left that I thought. That if I don't go out and vote for a candidate who is willing to put in the work to understand and engage minority issues to build a coalition that I will end up with a candidate who thinks Cornel "Obama is a republican in blackface" West and Killer Mike is minority outreach. That I will end up with a candidate who says I'm not "smart enough" to vote for them, who would rather my vote didn't matter.

Clinton surely has flaws but she at least has a record and scars of fighting the GOP for her adult life. She is someone willing to put in the work to do good for this county and it's future with actual plans and will fight for every American, not just their focus group.
 
I don't know why I didn't think of this before, but Hillary has been essentially fighting 2v1 this past month. Trump slamming her from the right and Bernie hasn't taken his foot off the gas at all. Pretty impressive that she is still able to stay on top.

Say what you want about Hillary, but election-wise she has been through hell and back. She has had just about everything thrown at her over the past 8-10 years and is still able to get the nomination of her party and lead in the general election polls. Nothing can stop her.

Really closer to 25 years now.
 
But this guy sounds like a Hilary supporter

I was agreeing with him (that was what the ^ was lol). People saying that they aren't "inspired" to vote or that a candidate hasn't "earned" their vote is one of my pet peeves.

Voting for a candidate isn't about rewarding them - it's about YOU! It's about the people around you! You're voting because it changes your life and the lives of the people you care about!
 
If you treat someone as a valid candidate because of factors which have nothing to do with their ability to be president (gender, race, religion, etc.), that's tokenism. It's significant that a non-white man who was qualified to be president achieved that post, and it's significant that a woman who is qualified to be president is poised to achieve that post. But qualifications are key.

Who is treating her as a valid candidate due to her gender? You responded to a poster questioning why Hillary's historic nomination, and hopefully presidency, didn't inspire someone with a complaint about tokenism.
 
Who is treating her as a valid candidate due to her gender? You responded to a poster questioning why Hillary's historic nomination, and hopefully presidency, didn't inspire someone with a complaint about tokenism.

Do you think you would find Drumpf's nomination inspiring if he was exactly the same as is he is now but female?
 
Really closer to 25 years now.

True that. I was think more specifically whatever they had left to drum up since the 08 election but she has most definitely been getting slammed since Bill's term. Imagine all this shit the GOP would dig up on Bernie had he been the nominee? No more skeletons in Clinton's closet.
 
Except the topic was Hillary being inspirational, not why someone is voting for her. You shut that strawman the hell down though.

The topic was her being inspiring as a presidential candidate right? I don't usually look at someones sex as a reason for me to fall behind them. Many others don't either.
 
I’ll be voting for Trump. I don’t particularly care much for him but he’s preferable to Hillary. If Stein had a legitimate chance of pulling enough of the vote to cost Hillary the election (>5%), I would throw my vote her way, but the Greens probably won’t even have ballot access in my state (Iowa).

As for the rest of the ballot, I’ll just be voting against whoever the incumbent is.

ban me if you want

First, you say in January that you're "closer to Hillary" but you're voting for Bernie for electability reasons. You spend the next month posting a pretty useless graph on favorability, leaving out the time before she ran for president that Hillary was popular and obscuring facts to make it seem as if there was no way Hillary could recover in a general election (jury's still out, but we have a more complete picture of the people who still dislike Hillary -- a lot of them are Bernie supporters depressing her numbers).

You then switch your tune. You still say you're closer to Hillary politically, but you want to send a message to the DNC by supporting Bernie. That's fair, but a different argument.

As time goes on, it becomes pretty apparent that this wasn't the case at all. I'm glad to see that the last 6 months of concern trolling.
 
Voting for a candidate isn't about rewarding them - it's about YOU! It's about the people around you! You're voting because it changes your life and the lives of the people you care about!
The first sentence is right, but the rest of this gibberish doesn't hold up to the facts.

Do you think you would find Drumpf's nomination inspiring if he was exactly the same as is he is now but female?
That's called a Carly Fiorina.
 
The topic was her being inspiring as a presidential candidate right? I don't usually look at someones sex as a reason for me to fall behind them. Many others don't either.
Pretty sure most people base their votes on more than just inspiration. That was the topic though.
 
I don't really have any issue with admitting that Bernie has lost (or will lose) the primary.

My issue is that of the media and their reporting on this victory. A few issues:

  • They claim (and I should mention that I in no way doubt the reporting) that a number of superdelegates have publicly and privately endorsed Clinton. The private endorsements are what bother me. This is not public knowledge and these people have not made public endorsements.
  • The timing of the reporting. Could be coincidence that they finally got one more to privately endorse yesterday, but the fact that it was on the eve of a very large primary day just smells fishy to me.

Again, I don't argue the defeat of Bernie, but I have to at least sympathize with folks who feel political apathy and even some 'tinfoil hat' wearers. It mostly just saddens me that not everyone gets a fair say in the process.
 
I don't think you understand how insulting and sexist this statement is. There are women alive today who were born into a country where women did not have the right to vote. One political party is hellbent on taking away a women's right to their body, they want to force a woman to carry a pregnancy to term. 80% of Congress is male and our country has never been lead by a woman.

I honestly don't understand how you can't find any inspiration in Clinton's nomination.

I get what you're trying to say, where she is now is definitely an inspiration for a woman to see that they can go as far as her or better.

But also there's a difference in the fact that her content and what you (a general you) think of her as a potential president may not be inspirational

I would really like a Biden VP or a Warren VP.

Though I'm not sure if Warren would want to be VP.

Clinton would not want Warren as her VP. She is probably the only VP candidate that could actually take more attention away from the actual nominee.
 
The thing about inspiration is, it's all in the eye of the beholder. You can argue that Hillary doesn't inspire you, but there was a photo posted here of her on a stage, with a couple of girls in the audience who were awe-struck. I tend towards Hillary being more inspirational than Bernie for the same reason those girls do - it's amazing to think that an intelligent, politically experienced woman (who is also a wife and mother) will become president following a two-term African-American president. A balding white dude doesn't have the same measure of life-changing awe, no matter how well he might speak at the stump.

I don't really have any issue with admitting that Bernie has lost (or will lose) the primary.

My issue is that of the media and their reporting on this victory. A few issues:


  • [...]
  • The timing of the reporting. Could be coincidence that they finally got one more to privately endorse yesterday, but the fact that it was on the eve of a very large primary day just smells fishy to me.

I really believe it's just the AP being arses, trying to steal the NYTimes and WaPo's thunder. They apparently rang around the undecided super-delegates to get an answer, and then to release the day before the California primary - it really is them being click-baity dicks. And it's worked - everyone's talking about the AP delegate math.
 
Do you think you would find Drumpf's nomination inspiring if he was exactly the same as is he is now but female?

Margaret Thatcher was an awful, terrible person, but it'd be undeniable to say that she broke the glass ceiling in the UK. The same would be true of Carly Fiorina. I find Reagan to be a terrible person, but it's also true that he nominated Sandra Day O'Connor to the Supreme Court.

I am happy that there is someone on the left of the political spectrum who is the first female nominee of a major political party, but this would still be a significant, historical milestone if it was Donalda Trump.
 
You know what inspires me? Knowing I, as a minority, have a lot less allies on the left that I thought. That if I don't go out and vote for a candidate who is willing to put in the work to understand and engage minority issues to build a coalition that I will end up with a candidate who thinks Cornel "Obama is a republican in blackface" West and Killer Mike is minority outreach. That I will end up with a candidate who says I'm not "smart enough" to vote for them, who would rather my vote didn't matter.

Clinton surely has flaws but she at least has a record and scars of fighting the GOP for her adult life. She is someone willing to put in the work to do good for this county and it's future with actual plans and will fight for every American, not just their focus group.


Your last paragraph could just as easily be about Bernie. If you think Bernie only cares about poor whites or a focus group I would criticize you not paying enough attention to him in the later parts of his campaign. Hillary has done more practical things for minorities than Bernie, and has heavier hitters in her camp, but don't think Bernie's side are your enemies cmon. Most will vote Hillary even if this forum doesn't seem like it
 
If you're voting for Hillary simply because she's a woman you pretty much are practicing tokenism.

Accurate. I'm a Bernie supporter still. There's been an awful lot of people perfectly willing to go to bat for Hillary on the sole basis that she's a woman.

Regardless of your opinion of her, you can't disagree that she's paraded one of her merits as the potential "First Woman President". It's not sexist to call her/her supporters out on it.
 
I was gonna say Michelle Bachmann but that's a good comparison too.

Personally I can't think of a bigger jackass in the Republican party than Drumpf. I don't think Hillary is like Drumpf, either, but my point is that there's more than just gender at play here. I don't think most Gaffers would be feeling too inspired if Sarah Palin got the nomination, either.
 
I don't really have any issue with admitting that Bernie has lost (or will lose) the primary.

My issue is that of the media and their reporting on this victory. A few issues:

  • They claim (and I should mention that I in no way doubt the reporting) that a number of superdelegates have publicly and privately endorsed Clinton. The private endorsements are what bother me. This is not public knowledge and these people have not made public endorsements.
  • The timing of the reporting. Could be coincidence that they finally got one more to privately endorse yesterday, but the fact that it was on the eve of a very large primary day just smells fishy to me.

Again, I don't argue the defeat of Bernie, but I have to at least sympathize with folks who feel political apathy and even some 'tinfoil hat' wearers. It mostly just saddens me that not everyone gets a fair say in the process.



Considering there is a shitload of harassment on the record when it comes to superdelegates posting their endorsements publically. I don't blame them for keeping it lowkey till the convention.

There's no need to be this guy:

Spencer Thayer said:
"It's likely that most callers are actually polite. If a few people contacting superdelegates are being obscene they'll of course drown out reasonable voices and harden opinions. However, it's useful to look at what's causing some of the anger and outrage we're seeing.

"Voters know they are being disenfranchised by superdelegate influence and these privileged voters are a reasonable target for frustration. And, let's be honest, if superdelegates aren't prepared to deal with the public, they shouldn't be party officials."

That's not a reasonable stance in the face of people calling superdelegates with racist bullshit or blowing up their personal phones through leaked means. Shit, just this page there's a tweet of people harassing a reporter. Why? What do you gain from harassing anyone over their vote through threats of violence or abuse.
 
Surely this sort of rhetoric will encourage Bernie supporters to vote Clinton.

I guess party unity only goes one way.

In this case, where Hillary Clinton has definitively won and Bernie Sanders has definitively lost, it does. But in the BernieMath universe where he still has a shot its apparently totally fine for Bernie Sanders to call Hillary corrupt and for his supporters to harass anyone who disagrees with them. I guess when Bernie wins the nomination in this parallel dimension the Hillary supporters should just suck it up and get in line.
 
Accurate. I'm a Bernie supporter still. There's been an awful lot of people perfectly willing to go to bat for Hillary on the sole basis that she's a woman.

Regardless of your opinion of her, you can't disagree that she's paraded one of her merits as the potential "First Woman President". It's not sexist to call her/her supporters out on it.

There's also a fair number of people who probably wouldn't vote for her because she's a woman.

I disagree, but I also understand why women might feel more inspired to vote for a female candidate than not. And guess what? One of her merits for women is that she's actually going to be a woman leader of the free world. For some people, that's very important and can weigh on which candidate they want to support. Others may disagree, but it's not sexist for people to want to see themselves represented in government because it can benefit their own lives in some way.
 
I don't know why I didn't think of this before, but Hillary has been essentially fighting 2v1 this past month. Trump slamming her from the right and Bernie hasn't taken his foot off the gas at all. Pretty impressive that she is still able to stay on top.

Say what you want about Hillary, but election-wise she has been through hell and back. She has had just about everything thrown at her over the past 8-10 years and is still able to get the nomination of her party and lead in the general election polls. Nothing can stop her.

She really won me over during the Benghazi hearings (which I watched the entirety of). She is a lady forged in decades of unending bullshit. The General is going to be a site to behold.
 
If Hilary Clinton was a loudmouth racist billionaire who bought and bullied her way into a General Election, you wouldn't be inspired by her! So clearly that means you only like her because she is a woman.
 
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