Monmouth, A+ Rated Pollster on 538 - Hillary 50% Trump 37%
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whyamihere
Banned
Finally, liberal coastal elites can truly own both coasts.
I know it likely won't but Imagine if that all stayed blue.
Well, that's the nowcast, as in if it was held today. The polls only is in the 80's.
Also, again, it looks like her bounce is holding, but it's important to not look at individual outlier polls. But the aggregate seems to show Clinton with a 6-7 point lead, which is great!
Hard to predict when or where the polls will go. It depends on a lot of factors. But every day that Clinton leads by as much as she does is a day that Trump gets less likely to become the president. As long as there's nothing big that happens, I expect that number to steadily rise, if not only because her polls stay consistent, but it gets closer to the 8th.
I only think her poll numbers will take one hit again, and that's with the release of the state department report. Hopefully that happens a while before November, cause that kind of stuff is easily forgotten.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I know it likely won't but imagine if that all stayed blue.
How is it that Hillary got all those electoral votes when at least half of this map is red! First we had to unskew polls, and now we have to unskew land mass! Liberal media bs.
whyamihere
Banned
I don't know how Hillary can win when everyone I know if voting for Trump.
Yeah, conventional wisdom would say this should tighten, but this feels like it's hit some tipping point where Trump's low numbers give more and more people permission to not support him, or at least convince them not to back a clear loser. And this is all before Hillary starts blitzing some of those newly light red states with her Republicans for Hillary ads.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's almost as though the narrative that Trump's poll numbers rise every time he says something dumb isn't actually based in reality.
whyamihere
Banned
Someone brought this up on twitter that there could be a bit of a feedback loop. The lower Trump's numbers go, the more Republicans who feel okay staying home and not voting for him, or voting 3rd party or Hillary. I don't know if I believe that, but it feels as if we may have hit an inflection point within the campaign.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Whoever gets closest to 37% wins, right? Trump's got this.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Thats still tens of millions of volatile, emotional, dense to reality, nutjobs completely armed to the teeth that are in the belief that their country is being stolen from them.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Imagine if anyone that hasn't had their name dragged through the mud for a quarter of a century by the GOP was running against him.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I really wonder what the GOP is gonna do for 2020. The people that propped up Trump aren't just going to come to their senses. From their perspective the moderates had their chance with McCain and Romney and dropped the ball.
I think their best option is to limit the field to only one or two "electable" candidates. That said, it must be disheartening that Trump and Cruz comprised like 70% of all the primary votes. I'm not sure limiting the field would be enough.
Imagine if someone with a personality more inspiring than that of a soggy blanket was running against him. It took half way through her convention speech to actually turn into a human being and emote.
Hopefully Trump doesn't implode too far from the election in case the GOP can find some way to keep the ship somewhat afloat.
whyamihere
Banned
What's scary for establishment GOPers is that if Hillary wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate, but Republicans hold the House with a slim margin, Ryan is going to have to deal with the Freedom Caucus that is going to be out for blood and could potential turn Ryan into an enemy of the base.
It's quite possible that Cruz could beat a wounded field in 2020, in which case Hillary Clinton is the luckiest person on planet Earth.
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
Not only should Trump lose, he has to lose hard.
Tinfoilhatsron
Banned
Wait Georgia? Really? Damn. Guess I should vote Hildawg then. Though it would go to Trump for sure..
I know it likely won't but imagine if that all stayed blue.
CrunchyFrog
Member
whyamihere
Banned
The last three GA polls were a tie, Clinton +3, and Clinton +7. So yes, you should.
Last two polls have her up by 4 and by 7 points.
eBay Huckster
Member
Georgia is, at long last, an Actual Swing State
Perfection.
Nope, no mercy. I want it to be 70/30 come November.
Ninja Scooter
Member
But guys don't underestimate Trump!!!
Tinfoilhatsron
Banned
Sweet. Would love to see Trump trashed in the homebase of the KKK. That'd show both him and the KKK.
I'm amazed, but how? Did GA get less dumb and racist since 2012? We were for Romney then...
hipsterpants
Member
Sad!
Missouri go blue pls
Missouri go blue pls
eBay Huckster
Member
Seems more like continued growth of the PoC electorate + Trump's general alienation of college whites that's finally pushed it
(Plus Obama barely lost it in 08)
(Plus Obama barely lost it in 08)
That was Romney, though. Think about how reasonable and good a choice he seems in comparison to Trump.
Oh hey, looks like I found a leaked script for the Republican primary of 2020 right here:
Ninja Scooter
Member
Georgia is nearly 40% black and hispanic.
I would imagine that Trump's huge losses among minority voters and ESPECIALLY college-educated white women are the contributing factors to making GA a legit swing state.
whyamihere
Banned
Growing minority population + influx of white liberals + college educated whites who dislike Trump
*raises hand*
whyamihere
Banned
Also, Hillary just opened two more field offices in Arizona and Harry Reid said she's going to Georgia, so.
Tinfoilhatsron
Banned
True. I always thought it was the old white Repubs + suburbia coming out to vote. (Haven't looked at actual turnout yet. Will look it up later) Well I guess from my perspective it seemed that way.
This is also true. Diet Racism vs Full On Nazi. Ha...
ViewtifulJC
Banned
I'm pretty sure Texas is 43% hispanic and black...and thats only going up, especially the Hispanic population.
2020 Texas will be blue, quote me in 4 years
I've lived in Georgia for 33 years, and in 2015 I had to go for the first time to look for jobs.
I drove through places that sell peaches. I drove through places that sell onions. I drove to the east coast and I drove to the west coast. I drove briefly through Atlanta and amazingly enough, ended up back in Columbus.
My conclusion: The state I have lived in my whole life as a lot of damn farms and woods.
Donald Trump must have done something truly horrid to piss us off.
I drove through places that sell peaches. I drove through places that sell onions. I drove to the east coast and I drove to the west coast. I drove briefly through Atlanta and amazingly enough, ended up back in Columbus.
My conclusion: The state I have lived in my whole life as a lot of damn farms and woods.
Donald Trump must have done something truly horrid to piss us off.
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