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Race tightens in projected U.S. Electoral College vote: Reuters/Ipsos

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-tightens-projected-u-electoral-college-vote-reuters-114535676.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.

The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president.

The States of the Nation project, which delivers a weekly tally of support for the candidates in every state, shows that the race has tightened in several traditional battlegrounds. Pennsylvania has been moved from a likely win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to a tossup; Ohio has been moved from a tossup to a likely win for Clinton. And Florida is now considered a likely win for the Republican nominee, with 50 percent support for Trump to 46 percent support for Clinton.

If the election were held today, the project estimates that Clinton has a 60 percent chance of winning by 18 electoral votes. Last week, the project estimated that Clinton had a 83 percent chance of winning the election.
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I'm sure Neogaf will tell me there's nothing to worry about.
 
Media: EVERYONE WATCH US SO WE GET ADVERTISING DOLLARS AND KEEP OUR BLOATED PAYCHECKS TO FINANCE OUR USELESS LIFESTYLES.

Founding Fathers: *grave rolling*
 
I just hope the debates show how much of an idiot he is so that he can lost support among independent.
 
I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?
 
Kolx said:
I just hope the debates show how much of an idiot he is so that he can lost support among independent.
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He has already been in a lot so far. Do we not remember him gloating about his penis size during one?

I really don't understand how its tied between him and Clinton. I didn't know there were THAT many deporables out there. Truly scary.
 
I'm convinced at this point the media not only wants it's horserace narrative, but wants a Trump presidency for ratings. And at the rate they're going, they might very well get it.

Liberal bias media my butt...
 
RPGCrazied said:
He has already been in a lot so far. Do we not remember him gloating about his penis size during one?

I really don't understand how its tied between him and Clinton. I didn't know there were THAT many deporables out there. Truly scary.
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I knew the country was fucked up, but didn't think ti was that fucked up. God we got a long way to go
 
Slayven said:
Said that bigots hold so much power in the country
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Any other dem candidate would be smashing it. She really is just the fucking worst.

I still think there's a bunch of closet trump people out there who are afraid to show themselves until they are in the booth.
 
DrForester said:
I'm convinced at this point the media not only wants it's horserace narrative, but wants a Trump presidency for ratings. And at the rate they're going, they might very well get it.

Liberal bias media my butt...
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Almost all media outlets are predicting a Clinton win, though.

Clinton isn't a great candidate (candidate as opposed to policy, which are very different things) and it's showing. Not as likable as Obama is. People vote for shallow reasons.
 
Modest Mauser said:
I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?
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Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
 
Modest Mauser said:
I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?
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That combined with Trump and his surrogates basically be able to hit her all week because she was off the campaign trail. Things should be interesting next week now that the tide has turned back after the disaster that was Trump admitting that Obama was born in this country. He's basically having a meltdown on Twitter because news networks are being so critical of him.
 
There's an error in the article. It talks about a tightening of the race in several battleground states, then mentions Ohio moving from toss-up to likely Clinton win. Having checked their source, they mean likely Trump win.
 
GregLombardi said:
Media: EVERYONE WATCH US SO WE GET ADVERTISING DOLLARS AND KEEP OUR BLOATED PAYCHECKS TO FINANCE OUR USELESS LIFESTYLES.

Founding Fathers: *grave rolling*
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Maybe this kind of stuff, along with his latest blatant dickery of them, the media will stop fucking around and take things serious.

It seems as though the whole time they've thought its all fun and games and he has no chance, so they can all just fuck around and have a good time, knowing he won't win...
 
Xilo said:
Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
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Was she supposed to be a fortune teller and know months in advance she was gonna get Pneumonia?

Because that's what her "health issues" were mild pneumonia
 
Xilo said:
Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
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Months ago? She just got sick. With a common and not-that-serious illness.
 
Slayven said:
Fuck that noise.

Donald Trump is just not an terrible candidate he is a terrible person on every conceivable level.
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This. I don't care what anyone says. Trump is not in Clintons league. Trump is a clown and acts like a man child. Someone I do not want making decisions that could affect my life and that of my loved ones.
 
Trump doesn't actually seem to have made many gains - there's a small gain in independents, but it's not the main factor. Most of the Clinton slump is from a widening gap between registered voters and likely voters, which means that would-be Clinton voters are getting steadily less enthusiastic about her.
 
A Link to the Past said:
Polls that were influenced by the the media being shit
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You can infer that, but we don't know without more polling. Like asking why are choosing you Trump over Clinton.

Personally, I think it's tightening (in the polls) because that's the normal behavior as Election Day draws nears.

Conservatives, and there are a lot of them, are beginning to "tolerate" Trump mostly on Party lines. People do and will vote on Party alone.

So yes many are willing to ignore the racism, sexism, xenophobia on party line issues.
 
Slayven said:
Fuck that noise.

Donald Trump is just not an terrible candidate he is a terrible person on every conceivable level.
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And yet, here we are.

I imagine any other dem nominee would be able to write their victory speech by now with their blowout poll numbers.
 
I'm not saying it hasn't tightened a bit, but I love how a major factor is kinda ignored and just mentionned partially burried without much being made of it.
As of last week, a ton of pollsters switched from registered to likely voters model (traditionally done after labor day), which favors Conservatives. This model is far more accurate for mid terms than presidentials.

National polls have produced varying measurements of support during the 2016 campaign for Clinton and Trump. The differences are partly due to the fact that some polls, like Reuters/Ipsos, try to include only likely voters, while others include all registered voters. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll gathers responses every day and reports results twice a week, so it often detects trends in sentiment before most other polls.
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But you know what, if the goal is to scare the progressive electorate in moving their butt and voting, I'm all for it.
 
Modest Mauser said:
I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?
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Her convention bump is fading. It's been pretty steady.

Personally i think the convention did a lot to improve her image because they focused a lot on her positives. Her campaign's messaging ever since has been about how horrible Trump is, or at least that's the messaging that's getting play in the media. I don't think that's a winning strategy. She needs to focus on the things the media naturally won't.
 
Trump isn't winning Florida. Too many hispanic voters and he's drawing less support from them than Romney in 2012.
 
Elandyll said:
I'm not saying it hasn't tightened a bit, but I love how a major factor is kinda ignored and just mentionned partially burried without much being made of it.
As of last week, a ton of pillsters switched frombregistered to likely voters model, which favors Conservatives.



But you know what, if the goal is to scare the progressive electorate in moving their butt and voting, I'm all for it.
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But isn't that a change that should make the results more relevant? If someone is unlikely to vote, who cares about their opinion?
 
Elandyll said:
I'm not saying it hasn't tightened a bit, but I love how a major factor is kinda ignored and just mentionned partially burried without much being made of it.
As of last week, a ton of pillsters switched frombregistered to likely voters model, which favors Conservatives.



But you know what, if the goal is to scare the progressive electorate in moving their butt and voting, I'm all for it.
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Aren't likely voter polls generally closer to actual election results?
 
Ipsos has also trended back toward Clinton in the past few days for what it's worth.

Also their current 50-state model has Vermont going Trump with "high-confidence" sooooo yeah.
 
Fox Mulder said:
And yet, here we are.

I imagine any other dem nominee would be able to write their victory speech by now with their blowout poll numbers.
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No

You'd think 2008 was an easy race for Obama, and any Democrat would have easily won, but there were times where the race tightened in 2008.

Hillary right now, at her lowest point in polling, is running right about where Obama was in 2012. Overall, she's polled higher than he did in 2012 through most of the election.

The country is too polarized to have +10% landslides that persist for months. That's just not how our country's election cycles work. The race goes up and down every few weeks, no matter who the candidates are.
 
Crisco said:
Trump isn't winning Florida. Too many hispanic voters and he's drawing less support from them than Romney in 2012.
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Then why is he currently shown marginally ahead in Florida by a number of recent polls?

He probably won't win Florida, but it's premature to say he can't when if the election were tomorrow he probably would.
 
Xilo said:
Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
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She has no health issues so there was nothing to disclose. Pneumonia is acute and anyone can get it, and it can hit you within days, not months in advanced.
 
Xilo said:
Nothing changed to make Trump look better. The problem is that a lot of people will not vote for a candidate who has serious health issues (even if they only suspect she might have serious health issues). Clinton would have been wise to disclose her health issues months ago, before things got blown out of proportion with the 9/11 incident.
Click to expand...

She should've disclosed that she was gonna get pneumonia months later? What?
 
Crab said:
Then why is he currently shown marginally ahead in Florida by a number of recent polls?

He probably won't win Florida, but it's premature to say he can't when if the election were tomorrow he probably would.
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Plenty of polls showed Romney marginally head in Florida as well. Polls don't change demographics or basic math.
 
giphy.gif
 
Crab said:
Then why is he currently shown marginally ahead in Florida by a number of recent polls?

He probably won't win Florida, but it's premature to say he can't when if the election were tomorrow he probably would.
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If you're referring to the recent CNN poll, it's important to note that they polled so few people in their 18-49 range that they couldn't include them in their LV sample and have anything resembling a decent margin of error. Their polls are usually good, but that is a joke.
 
eBay Huckster said:
because democratic enthusiasm is flagging a solid 10 days before the first debate
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Sure, but this implies that if enthusiasm continues to flag, which is possible, she won't win Florida - which is my point. If you're looking for "don't worry, Trump won't win because he can't win X", then Pennsylvania is a better choice - Trump has three paths without it (Maine statewide, Colorado, or New Hampshire) but they're all difficult pickings.
 
i mean, that enthusiasm gap is already starting to reverse itself in the wake of the unprompted "birther reversal" plus clinton actually returning to the campaign trail

let's just wait a couple weeks
 
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