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[SolidSnakex]

She didn't back off the line, she just walked back the "half" part.

Which meant that headlines were about her walking back on the statement instead of them potentially being about all the data that exists that backs up her original point. That's why what she said was fine, it's just the followup that was the issue. If anything she lowballed it.

 

[Knuckle Sandwich]

Yeah I'm not sure that's true. Only what 3 million or so less people voted for Sanders over Clinton, which yeah is a lot, but it still means Sanders got 40% and millions of votes. I'm not sure he would be doing any better than Clinton right now, but I doubt he would be doing much worse.

Eventually a Democratic Socialist will be president IMO. Just a matter of when.

Nobody who calls themselves a "socialist" will be president. Drop the label and keep the policies and you have a chance.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

You could have a lock on a Bernie Sanders presidency right now. Instead you might have a Trump presidency. Good job.

Rather than worrying about if Hillary can appeal to young people, we'd be having this same thread wondering how Bernie could appeal to older people and minorities. Except older people and minorities are more reliable voters than young people

Bernie had a real problem with minorities.

 

[Aeriscloud]

yeah, we're really fucked aren't we

Darkest Timeline

 

[johnsmith]

If anybody needs to be walked off the ledge just listen to this

https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600...-plouffe-and-media-coverage-with-glenn-thrush

 

[rjinaz]

Nobody who calls themselves a "socialist" will be president. Drop the label and keep the policies and you have a chance.

Well that may be true. I mean it's working for Trump, he's not out right saying he is a facist dictator.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Media: EVERYONE WATCH US SO WE GET ADVERTISING DOLLARS AND KEEP OUR BLOATED PAYCHECKS TO FINANCE OUR USELESS LIFESTYLES.

Founding Fathers: *grave rolling*

The Founding Fathers would probably be more aghast at the idea of a woman running for president.

 

[John Dunbar]

asked in the other thread that got locked, but would clinton have been totally fucked if the republicans had managed to nominate someone "moderate" (still total crazy by reasonable standards)? did people underestimate how bad of a candidate she is (not saying she would make a bad president, just about the bit about actually getting elected)?

 

[Calamari41]

Guys, the issue with the pneumonia isn't that she got it. The issue is that her trustworthiness is so low, something like half the country doesn't believe she's telling the truth when she says that's what caused her collapse.

 

[Wuthering_Heights]

Thanks Jimmy Fallon.

 

[Future]

Glad to see this. Unfortunately it takes a disaster to get young democrats to do anything.

People said trump wouldn't get passed the primaries
People said trump would be replaced at the RNC
People said his campaign was in shambles
People say he can't get elected

There is a pattern here. And unfortunately the reality is without someone charismatic for the democrat cause, you will get an influx of young democrats thinking they are making statements about not voting for lesser evils and voting for 3rd parties that don't even have enough support to debate. Or over confident democrats that think the world isn't as bigoted as it really is. With age they will see what happened and real change can start to happen in about 20 years

 

[kame-sennin]

But 90% of GAF argued that it would help her. They even accused those who suggested otherwise of being Trump supporters or apologists for racists. The quality of discourse in GAF has gone down the drain in the last few years such that any nuance in a discussion is lost and saying anything critical of a candidate or his/her strategy = being a supporter of the other side. I'd hope we could get away from that as it is not at all conducive to discussion. Insulting a large group of Americans (particularly when it's a group that people might feel she's putting them in while they don't feel they belong in it) is never good politics, and I was surprised so many thought that it would be.

I think it's the fact that we're in election season and centrist liberals have a very weak candidate that they are insecure about. I've never seen democrats as afraid of criticisms of their nominee as they are this year.

Why poll?

This is a much deeper question than you think it is.

 

[BradC00]

We are done.

 

[Future PhaZe]

I'm over worrying. He's not winning. Period. Once all the celebrities and the hard core get out and vote shit gets going he's done.

 

[Liu Kang Baking A Pie]

I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?

It's because the 24/7 news media dies if the race isn't close.

I wish more of GAF would stop paying attention to the media circus with all its strategic twists and clickbait, and instead focused more on straight up news rather than the newsmakers. They're taking the country for a ride every minute of every day.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Feels like Horse Race/Dead Heat 2.0.

 

[Team Alucard]

asked in the other thread that got locked, but would clinton have been totally fucked if the republicans had managed to nominate someone "moderate" (still total crazy by reasonable standards)? did people underestimate how bad of a candidate she is (not saying she would make a bad president, just about the bit about actually getting elected)?

Romney would be up by five points on Clinton.

 

[Envelope]

asked in the other thread that got locked, but would clinton have been totally fucked if the republicans had managed to nominate someone "moderate" (still total crazy by reasonable standards)? did people underestimate how bad of a candidate she is (not saying she would make a bad president, just about the bit about actually getting elected)?

Romney would def be leading over #Killary

 

[MisterShine]

It's because the 24/7 news media dies if the race isn't close.

I wish more of GAF would stop paying attention to the media circus with all its strategic twists and clickbait, and instead focused more on straight up news rather than the newsmakers. They're taking the country for a ride every minute of every day.

In this case they're right. Both Sam Wang at the Princeton Consortium and Nate Silver at 538 are showing that the race is definitely tightening, both nationally and in state polls. They both predict Trump will probably keep inching upwards until the debate. Things are not looking great right now.


http://election.princeton.edu/2016/09/16/is-a-change-in-the-air/#more-17442
^ Mr. Wang's latest article about the events of the week and polling. Essentially if the election were held today, it would be a nail-biter.

 

[Alpha Centauri]

Guys and gals help me recall... Outside of the DNC (which was fantastic), has Hillary had a good week against Trump, ever? Every single time Trump falls its from a self-inflicted gunshot. He slowly recovers as people stop caring, and when he's a point or two away he shoots himself again. Rinse and Repeat.

It's like the country inherently wants him to win, but he up until this point has been his biggest barrier. His braintrust has been saying for months all he has to do is literally shut up and he will surge. Boy were they right.

 

[exmachina64]

Any other dem candidate would be smashing it. She really is just the fucking worst.

You really have no proof of that.

 

[Liu Kang Baking A Pie]

Guys and gals help me recall... Outside of the DNC (which was fantastic), has Hillary had a good week against Trump, ever? Every single time Trump falls its from a self-inflicted gunshot. He slowly recovers as people stop caring, and when he's a point or two away he shoots himself again. Rinse and Repeat.

It's like the country inherently wants him to win, but he up until this point has been his biggest barrier. His braintrust has been saying for months all he has to do is literally shut up and he will surge. Boy were they right.

The thing is, he still hasn't shut up, and he's still saying awful shit daily. His Twitter is a mess like always, he got publicly mad about the Flint pastor cutting him off, and just yesterday he suggested again Hillary should be in a position to get shot.

I think you're right: this country inherently wants him to win. He represents us.

 

[BlastProcessing]

asked in the other thread that got locked, but would clinton have been totally fucked if the republicans had managed to nominate someone "moderate" (still total crazy by reasonable standards)? did people underestimate how bad of a candidate she is (not saying she would make a bad president, just about the bit about actually getting elected)?

The GOP that would have actually nominated Jeb, Rudio or Kasich is so radically different than the one we have now that it's hard to project. But at the end of the day, it's about demographics.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states.

Until the GOP fundamentally shifts from being a party that repulses minorities, they are going to have an extreme difficulty winning a national election.

 

[Pachinko]

Positing a theory here - This election cycle has been pretty much the worst , I don't even live in the US and I'm not a citizen of your fine country but it's all I hear about constantly. Even back in 2008 ,things only got really heated for the last few months before the big election day but this time it seems like I've been hearing about election related junk for 2 years non-stop.

I'm sick of it. So I can only imagine that the average American must be 10 times sicker of hearing about it all the time.

Trump is a bigot , an asshole AND most importantly a narcissist. He LOVES the publicity , good/bad/weird , it doesn't matter. His supporters are also clinically brain damaged so they enjoy hearing about him all the time. Who watches the most television ? Especially when most news channels spend all of their time reporting on something viewers want to hear about ? Trump supporters. So it's like this self feeding snake of stupidity constantly shitting into it's own mouth. So - of course the networks want to report that "hey Trump is actually maybe going to get enough votes to almost win but probably still lose badly but keep watching in case this changes". It gives them better ratings, people fearful of a giant baby leading their country into a new age of ignorance and oblivion will start watching hoping to hear some good news (ie - trump electrocutes himself to death with toupee straightener ) and trumptards keep watching to cheer for their champion.

What does all have to do with constant poll fluctuations ? well, if everything was reported straight forward and honestly , you'd merely hear some dry news reports about how Hillary will end up with a solid lead from the electorate and that Trump has basically no chance of winning. Trumps fanbase then won't be watching as much because the news won't do much and the fearful folks won't have anything to be scared about so they won't watch either. Lower TV ratings.

So , that brings us to the polls themselves, even when Hillary's support does fluctuate downward - the real culprit here is that Trump supporters and die hard republicans will still vote for their parties champion so they keep the Republican vote strong in polled states. Hillary has her support base (and I think just because of non white male support alone it's slightly higher than Trump can hope to get) but there are a number of 18-25 year olds out there partaking in their first or second election that want to vote for a candidate that really represents their values (like the green party , even if Jill Stein is an anti-vax crackpot). This vote has been fluctuating back and forth for months now because many in this group don't see Trump as a real threat , whenever they Do , they say "yeah I'll vote for hilldog" but then good polls come out and they say "eh, it's safe to vote on an independent because Hillary will probably win anyway".

So these minor fluctuations are being reported every 2 days, and anytime Hillary drops at all (even if it's that nebulous % measurement) , it becomes national news because that's basically what people want to watch for better or worse.

Really though, I just sit here from Canada looking southward , wondering what a normal election would look like right now - one where Jeb Bush was the candidate chosen to represent the republicans and the usual boring spout of debates and such occurred and Hillary still ended up winning when it was all said and done but I didn't hear about it 30 times a day.

 

[God Dayumm]

I'm over worrying. He's not winning. Period. Once all the celebrities and the hard core get out and vote shit gets going he's done.

He is absolutely not winning. Even those on the fence will have a change of heart at the booth. It's fun to give him attention so that he can fling shit at Hillary, but that's all it is. Circus and nothing more.

 

[Guevara]

I really feel like Clinton is 2-3 fuckups from losing the election.

 

[Abounder]

Past 8 years the Democrats have lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, and 13 Senate seats. The country has been trending towards the GOP's ground game, and will continue to do so as too many have been left behind from the corrupt recession (Warren still asking the FBI why Obama didn't arrest anyone btw, and pretty much no one agrees with Obama vetoing 9/11 bill, and the no-fly list gun agenda doesn't do anyone any favors either...)

At least there's the big birther but if Hillary can't get heathy in time then GG Dems. Amazing that her ratings are so low despite Obama's relatively solid approval. I suppose Debbie Wasserman Schultz really stained the party.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Glad to see this. Unfortunately it takes a disaster to get young democrats to do anything.

People said trump wouldn't get passed the primaries
People said trump would be replaced at the RNC
People said his campaign was in shambles
People say he can't get elected

There is a pattern here.

The pattern is that people keep on bringing up this bogus narrative in damn near every Trump thread. There is no correlation in what you are saying. Trump was the favorite, by the numbers, during damn near the entire primary. He is not the favorite, by the numbers, now. Stop trying to link the two together. And before you bother, please don't mention Brexit either.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Almost all media outlets are predicting a Clinton win, though.

Clinton isn't a great candidate (candidate as opposed to policy, which are very different things) and it's showing. Not as likable as Obama is. People vote for shallow reasons.

I'll vote Clinton for logical reasons but I don't like her. I think it's just more of the same political standard. Fortunately for her the alternative is bad enough this time around.

 

[2MF]

I'll vote Clinton for logical reasons but I don't like her. I think it's just more of the same political standard. Fortunately for her the alternative is bad enough this time around.

Seems like a common sentiment. The problem for Clinton is, not everyone cares as much as you do, so many people won't even vote despite agreeing with you.

 

[MartyStu]

You can infer that, but we don't know without more polling. Like asking why are choosing you Trump over Clinton.

Personally, I think it's tightening (in the polls) because that's the normal behavior as Election Day draws nears.

Conservatives, and there are a lot of them, are beginning to "tolerate" Trump mostly on Party lines. People do and will vote on Party alone.

So yes many are willing to ignore the racism, sexism, xenophobia on party line issues.

Pretty much.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Seems like a common sentiment. The problem for Clinton is, not everyone cares as much as you do, so many people won't even vote despite agreeing with you.

I don't think she has any ability or interest in changing the influence or power that corporations have over public policy and guidelines or any interest in creating new work opportunities or empowering people to better themselves. It's just making the law so that people are paid more or get money.

But no candidate is doing those things so whatever.

 

[Pyrokai]

I don't think she has any ability or interest in changing the influence or power that corporations have over public policy and guidelines or any interest in creating new work opportunities or empowering people to better themselves. It's just making the law so that people are paid more or get money.

But no candidate is doing those things so whatever.

Her SCOTUS nominees might.

 

[wumster3000]

i mean, that enthusiasm gap is already starting to reverse itself in the wake of the unprompted "birther reversal" plus clinton actually returning to the campaign trail

let's just wait a couple weeks

I agree with this. The one thing that I learned from Obama vs Romney is that the Dems are sleeping giants. A lot of polls had Romney kicking Obama's ass. Dems poll poorly but when it's time to vote, they go out and vote.

With that said, please don't take these numbers lightly. As I've stated, the people who thought Trump didn't have a chance are delusional. A lot of Americans are uneducated and don't care about his severe short comings. But please believe that he has a lot of educated voters support as well.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Guys, the issue with the pneumonia isn't that she got it. The issue is that her trustworthiness is so low, something like half the country doesn't believe she's telling the truth when she says that's what caused her collapse.

The Clinton obsession with secrecy due to extreme paranoia hurts them way more than it helps them but the cycle of paranoia resulting in negative media coverage that causes greater paranoia might be impossible to break at this point.

The reality is that a Hillary White House will be less transparent, more secretive, and more paranoid than even the GWB White House was.

 

[Havoc2049]

I agree with this. The one thing that I learned from Obama vs Romney is that the Dems are sleeping giants. A lot of polls had Romney kicking Obama's ass. Dems poll poorly but when it's time to vote, they go out and vote.

With that said, please don't take these numbers lightly. As I've stated, the people who thought Trump didn't have a chance are delousional. A lot of Americans are uneducated and don't care about his severe short comings. But please believe that he has a lot of educated voters support as well.

Romney was never going to kick Obama's ass. The RCP average for the whole race had Obama up by 3.7%. There was a little tightening at the end and the Romney camp had their fingers crossed that it might give them a GW-2000 razer thin win in the end, but it didn't happen.

Romney was about as exciting as a golf clap and he didn't have a ground swell of support that would help him defy the poles. I think Trump might have that kind of support. If the poles are close on election day, there may be a surprise, especially if he is trending upwards. I remember on the big Northeast Super Tuesday in the primaries, he beat all the poles by like 3-5% and pretty much sealed the deal on the nomination.

 

[Media]

The 'basket of deplorables' thing baffles me. People were so outraged over it when Trump can't go a single day without insulting a ton of people or individuals.

 

[bionic77]

Breaking news.

A lot of Americans don't understand democracy or the constitution and want to burn this motherfucker to the ground.

 

[samn]

I don't understand why. What's changed to make Trump look better over the last few weeks? Is this all just because Clinton caught pneumonia?

Because she essentially lied about not having pneumonia. Until they calculated that they absolutely had to say something.

Her campaign said she had 'overheated'. No mention of pneumonia. Then she comes out of her daughter's apartment waving at the press saying wow I feel fine now. No mention of pneumonia. All this secrecy and ultimately for nothing.

 

[Maengun1]

I had my mini meltdown about this on Thursday, but the facts remain thus: Hillary had the worst media week of her entire campaign, while Trump had one of his better ones. Then these polls came out. And he caught up to her quite a bit. And he's STILL behind.

Last couple days, Hillary is looking much better while it looks like the media is finally --FINALLY-- done with Trump's bullshit. Now that can and possibly will change again, but that's what it looks like today.

If Hillary hasn't gained back any ground a week from today, I'll get very worried again. If Trump actually pulls ahead at any time after the debates start, maybe the sky is falling. But right now is the time to buckle down and keep working against him.

 

[AngmarsKing701]

The 'basket of deplorables' thing baffles me. People were so outraged over it when Trump can't go a single day without insulting a ton of people or individuals.

Individual statements don't have as much play as Hillary's statement grouping Trump supporters into one pile. Disregard the fact that she's right. Trump has turned it into her calling hard working Americans deplorable. It will play over and over between now and Nov 8.

 

[2MF]

Individual statements don't have as much play as Hillary's statement grouping Trump supporters into one pile. Disregard the fact that she's right. Trump has turned it into her calling hard working Americans deplorable. It will play over and over between now and Nov 8.

Yeah. Painting 20% of voters in one broad stroke, even if correct, was a dumb move. And then she walked back on it, managing to also put off people who agreed with her.

It's amazing how incompetent Hillary can be sometimes. Obviously she has a level of scrutiny that makes it easy to fall into traps at times. Still, she's been doing this a while and should know better than making such broad statements...

 

[Havoc2049]

Individual statements don't have as much play as Hillary's statement grouping Trump supporters into one pile. Disregard the fact that she's right. Trump has turned it into her calling hard working Americans deplorable. It will play over and over between now and Nov 8.

It also doesn't help her with the 40% of white people who normally don't vote. It may just energize the Joe Six Pack's of the world to put down the wrench and beer, jump in the truck and go vote for Trump on election day.

 

[AngmarsKing701]

Yeah. Painting 20% of voters in one broad stroke, even if correct, was a dumb move. And then she walked back on it, managing to also put off people who agreed with her.

It's amazing how incompetent Hillary can be sometimes. Obviously she has a level of scrutiny that makes it easy to fall into traps at times. Still, she's been doing this a while and should know better than making such broad statements...

It also doesn't help her with the 40% of white people who normally don't vote. It may just energize the Joe Six Pack's of the world to put down the wrench and beer, jump in the truck and go vote for Trump on election day.

And as someone pointed out earlier, why is she even attacking Trump? He's enough of an ass that he can dig his own holes. She should be focusing on what she's good at: policy. She has some ideas on moving this country forward instead of backwards. Talk about that instead of Trump.

 

[wumster3000]

Yeah. Painting 20% of voters in one broad stroke, even if correct, was a dumb move. And then she walked back on it, managing to also put off people who agreed with her.

It's amazing how incompetent Hillary can be sometimes. Obviously she has a level of scrutiny that makes it easy to fall into traps at times. Still, she's been doing this a while and should know better than making such broad statements...

This is my main gripe with her, along with other things.

 

[Cocaloch]

Nobody who calls themselves a "socialist" will be president. Drop the label and keep the policies and you have a chance.

The word Socialism has been increasing in popularity in the US. Though of course I think probably fewer than 1 in 5 would give the Marxist/19th century definition. Social Democracy seems like it might at least be becoming more appealing in America. I don't think the US will have a true socialist movement for at least generations. Though maybe automation will provoke it.

 

[Manmademan]

It also doesn't help her with the 40% of white people who normally don't vote. It may just energize the Joe Six Pack's of the world to put down the wrench and beer, jump in the truck and go vote for Trump on election day.

except it doesn't work that way in most of the country, Joe sixpack has to register to vote and Joe Sixpack not only WON'T, Joe Sixpack doesn't have a clue how to begin in the first place.

Joe Sixpack also needs to live in one of the half dozen states that are actually contestable this year. No one gives a shit what Joe Sixpack from Alabama, Texas, West Virginia or Montana thinks, because it makes no difference whether West Virginia goes to Trump by 5 points or 50.

 

[msdstc]

Seems like a common sentiment. The problem for Clinton is, not everyone cares as much as you do, so many people won't even vote despite agreeing with you.

I'm not a fan of clinton I think I've made that clear and I don't want to spark an argument about it. That being said I'm basically forcing anybody I know who isn't voting to get out there and vote for her. Trump is a disaster on several fronts and we can't have him win.

 

[Maxim726X]

Race has DEFINITELY tightened, no one is arguing that. But it's also important not to get panicky because a few polls showed Trump ahead. That's inevitable. We will probably need to wait more like two weeks for debate fallout to really gauge the race.

And I get what Nate is saying, but he also includes land-line only polls in his model which are universally considered garbage in the polling world. He's been... Odd this year to put it lightly.

As a pundit, he's been bad. But if you believe in his algorithm, there is reason to be concerned.

At this time during the 2012 elections, Obama was at ~80% victory if I recall. Clinton is at 60%. This is not the same race.

According to him, his algorithm remains unchanged. So if it was great in 2008 and 2012, there is cause for concern.

 

[Escape Goat]

Just wait for Stein and Johnson to drop out. Clinton will regain her lead.