Actually, I have heard from my friends at MS that the whole gaming division is under heavy scrutiny. I really wouldn't be surprised to see them drastically cut, and even more I highly expect the "Scorpio" to be delayed - that is a piece of information I have been keeping to myself to keep from being labeled a console warrior... We know there will be a new Forza this year, but everything else is up in the air...
I'd expect some kind of Minecraft clone to "diversify" the third-party lineup if Scorpio actually releases this year.
Meanwhile, MS is sitting on all of Rare's properties which we may never see again. If it won't be a major "success", the game will never see release. So probably never see another Banjo, or Conker, or any number of titles. Instead, they have Rare working on a multiplayer (has to be), pirate simulator. Pray Sea of Thieves is a success, or Rare will be next studio canned.