ShinRPGamer
Member
I'm watching it. Leitch was terrible. All she did was dodge questions and spout nonsense.
Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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I'm watching it. Leitch was terrible. All she did was dodge questions and spout nonsense.
matthewwhatever
Member
I watched the whole thing, minus the closing statements. I'd say:
Blaney/Trost/Lemieux:
- snoozefest, but it's not like any of them has a shot, so whatever.
Obhrai/Chong/O'Leary/Scheer: definitely the most heated of the four debates.
- O'Leary is good at making outrageous statements, but he got slapped down at every turn. I can't imagine anyone being swayed by him who wasn't already predisposed to liking him. I think he'd appeal to hardcore, red meat Conservatives who want someone to spout nonsense, but he'd be a disastrous leader for that party.
- Chong sounds relatively reasonable, but the fact he got booed for supporting a carbon tax shows how much of a chance he has (and his proposal to end all green initiatives is as crazy as anything anyone else is suggesting).
- Scheer looks and sounds like a 12-year-old in his father's suit; I've always thought of him as being like an even blander version of Harper, and everything he did reinforced that image.
- I like Obhrai, the crowd loves him as comic relief, but he's clearly not winning.
O'Toole/Leitch/Alexander/Saxton:
- Saxton continued to be a nonentity.
- Alexander seems terrifyingly vacuous; you'd think a Harvard-educated diplomat would have some substance to him, but he's proof that that's not the case.
- O'Toole seems like Scheer's dorky dad.
- Leitch is crazy. I'm hesitant to call her that, since there's a tendency of using that as a gendered insult, but...she seriously seems like a raving lunatic. She also has a tendency of coming off as incredibly pompous -- possibly a holdover from when she was a surgeon, possibly a reaction to being a woman in a man-dominated profession, but she still comes off as very peevish.
Raitt/Peterson/Bernier: definitely my favourite of the four debates.
- Peterson was surprisingly feisty, and he got in a really good burn on O'Leary (something like "I'm proud to be the only non-politician businessman among the 14 candidates who lives in Canada full-time."). He's still going to be one of the first people out.
- Raitt was wrong about cabinet ministers not meeting with their US counterparts (a pretty easily disproved statement on her part), but apart from that I was really impressed by her. She sounded reasonable, she was articulate, and she seemed like someone I could picture on stage in 2019.
- Bernier is O'Leary-esque in his ability to say insane stuff and not come off as a crazy person. On the one hand he's comfortable in his own skin, but on the other hand he's got zero substance, and I think he'd be a pretty risky candidate.
On the whole I'd group them into:
- solid: Raitt, O'Toole, Scheer
- solid, but no chance: Obhrai, Peterson, Chong
- insane: Bernier, O'Leary, Leitch
- zero chance, for good reason: Saxton, Trost, Lemieux, Blaney
- so dumb it's kind of a miracle he didn't choke on his own tie: Alexander
Blaney/Trost/Lemieux:
- snoozefest, but it's not like any of them has a shot, so whatever.
Obhrai/Chong/O'Leary/Scheer: definitely the most heated of the four debates.
- O'Leary is good at making outrageous statements, but he got slapped down at every turn. I can't imagine anyone being swayed by him who wasn't already predisposed to liking him. I think he'd appeal to hardcore, red meat Conservatives who want someone to spout nonsense, but he'd be a disastrous leader for that party.
- Chong sounds relatively reasonable, but the fact he got booed for supporting a carbon tax shows how much of a chance he has (and his proposal to end all green initiatives is as crazy as anything anyone else is suggesting).
- Scheer looks and sounds like a 12-year-old in his father's suit; I've always thought of him as being like an even blander version of Harper, and everything he did reinforced that image.
- I like Obhrai, the crowd loves him as comic relief, but he's clearly not winning.
O'Toole/Leitch/Alexander/Saxton:
- Saxton continued to be a nonentity.
- Alexander seems terrifyingly vacuous; you'd think a Harvard-educated diplomat would have some substance to him, but he's proof that that's not the case.
- O'Toole seems like Scheer's dorky dad.
- Leitch is crazy. I'm hesitant to call her that, since there's a tendency of using that as a gendered insult, but...she seriously seems like a raving lunatic. She also has a tendency of coming off as incredibly pompous -- possibly a holdover from when she was a surgeon, possibly a reaction to being a woman in a man-dominated profession, but she still comes off as very peevish.
Raitt/Peterson/Bernier: definitely my favourite of the four debates.
- Peterson was surprisingly feisty, and he got in a really good burn on O'Leary (something like "I'm proud to be the only non-politician businessman among the 14 candidates who lives in Canada full-time."). He's still going to be one of the first people out.
- Raitt was wrong about cabinet ministers not meeting with their US counterparts (a pretty easily disproved statement on her part), but apart from that I was really impressed by her. She sounded reasonable, she was articulate, and she seemed like someone I could picture on stage in 2019.
- Bernier is O'Leary-esque in his ability to say insane stuff and not come off as a crazy person. On the one hand he's comfortable in his own skin, but on the other hand he's got zero substance, and I think he'd be a pretty risky candidate.
On the whole I'd group them into:
- solid: Raitt, O'Toole, Scheer
- solid, but no chance: Obhrai, Peterson, Chong
- insane: Bernier, O'Leary, Leitch
- zero chance, for good reason: Saxton, Trost, Lemieux, Blaney
- so dumb it's kind of a miracle he didn't choke on his own tie: Alexander
The economic case for a carbon tax is to internalize the social cost of CO2 emissions into prices and force economic actors to consider and pay for the social costs of CO2 emissions.
The Conservative case for the carbon tax is that it would provide market incentives to reduce emissions. Allowing the carbon tax to stand on its own and not having heavy regulation would allow the market to find the most efficient way to reduce emissions, instead of being forced to do specifically what regulations might demand.
You might disagree, but conservatives aren't going to suddenly become big government supporters if and when they come around on actually doing something about global warming.
Chong might have a path to victory involving enough centre-right people ( I'd imagine most people joining are willing to vote for some version of the CPC, but maybe I underestimate how many staunchly left-leaning people are joining ) joining the party to keep him in the running long enough to have the Progressive Conservative votes coalesce around him, and then when Scheer get's knocked out the Reformer's who have like, standards, go for him over Bernier and O'Leary.
The Conservative case for the carbon tax is that it would provide market incentives to reduce emissions. Allowing the carbon tax to stand on its own and not having heavy regulation would allow the market to find the most efficient way to reduce emissions, instead of being forced to do specifically what regulations might demand.
You might disagree, but conservatives aren't going to suddenly become big government supporters if and when they come around on actually doing something about global warming.
Chong might have a path to victory involving enough centre-right people ( I'd imagine most people joining are willing to vote for some version of the CPC, but maybe I underestimate how many staunchly left-leaning people are joining ) joining the party to keep him in the running long enough to have the Progressive Conservative votes coalesce around him, and then when Scheer get's knocked out the Reformer's who have like, standards, go for him over Bernier and O'Leary.
She's been saying this for some time now, she's spewing nothing new.
matthewwhatever
Member
...no. Just no. There's zero chance Chong wins. There's virtually no chance he'll still be in the running if/when Scheer gets knocked out, and there's absolutely zero chance he somehow outlasts Scheer, AND O'Toole, AND Raitt. Any PCers still remaining in the party are going for those three over him, and I'm skeptical there are even enough remaining in the party to make much of a difference for anybody. Chong's attention and coverage is totally out of proportion to how much of a chance he has of winning.
I do think the chances are very slim. But my premise is basically new people joining the party might have a much larger impact than people expect.
Anyone further right than Scheer will probably render the CPC unelectable. We're in a pretty big inflection point in Canadian politics with both the CPC and NDP figuring out where they'll go from here. The Liberals will then also have to figure out where they fit in based on how the CPC and NDP go.
Maybe both the CPC and the NDP move further from the centre and the LPC becomes a hot mess that can't lose, or maybe they both move closer to the centre and the LPC becomes just a hot mess. To me it seems that the CPC moving towards the centre would put them in power, but moving away from it either recreates the Reform / PC split vote problem with the CPC and LPC, or leaves the centre-right very underrepresented in Parliament, depending on where the NDP goes.
I don't consider him all that dangerous because unlike Leitch's hardline appeals to bigotry, I don't think Bernier's ideas would have much potential to garner a passionate audience. He's calling for the goring of a lot of sacred cows.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Still hoping for a 5 dollar membership as March approaches. lol
AuthenticM
Member
Done
ugh. I feel ill, but it's for the greater good.
ugh. I feel ill, but it's for the greater good.
Done
ugh. I feel ill, but it's for the greater good.
They're still using pictures of Harper?
The expression seems appropriate.
matthewwhatever
Member
Point taken, but I have a hard time imagining that the new people joining are dominated by Red Tory types. If Chong were some charismatic dynamo, I could see it, but as it stands -- where he's kind of a wet blanket -- the number of people he's bringing into the party is probably dwarfed by the numbers other people are bringing in.
Yeah, contrary to what libertarians think, I don't think there's much of a market in Canada for a party that openly wants to gut healthcare and bring back the gold standard. Even if his stance on supply management has some logic behind it, it'll still alienate groups like Dairy Farmers of Canada and Chicken Farmers of Canada, and leave the CPC wide open to attacks centred around the sanctity and superiority of Canadian milk and cheese.
Plus it doesn't help that Bernier is a dunce. An amiable, somewhat charming dunce, but a dunce nonetheless. Yesterday's debate showed that his arguments fall apart when confronted with even the gentlest to nudges, so I can't imagine how he'd handle someone genuinely trying to tear him down. And seeing as his brand is built around being a straight-shooting, unflinching libertarian, he can't exactly walk back some of his crazier positions.
My friend looked into it further. Apparently it was something he was offering at an event, so unless you're willing to go hang out with a bunch of Conservatives on the off chance he's still doing it, you may be out of luck. Sorry!
firehawk12
Subete no aware
RIP.
I'll probably sign up with Chong I guess and then just put Bernier as my second choice.
I recall reading somewhere they only mail out 4 batches a year. At this point they might just be waiting till the end of March to mail them out to everyone who became a member in time to vote.
I don't think it matters though, since the ballot is also mailed to you, and you can just mail it back.
EDIT: Well there is a membership number on this card, but that's probably in an email too.
EDIT2: No actually, but I'm sure it'll arrive in time. If they really wanted to demonstrate fiscal conservatism they might mail it with the ballot.
If there's anyone you like more than Bernier, it can't hurt to rank them between Chong and Bernier. Bernier's a crank too, even if I appreciate somebody bringing up supply management.
pr0cs
Member
It worked out just fine for Trudeau, the masses love their charming handsome dopes
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I guess you're marking Bernier on the ballot as your second choice because he has a higher chance of winning, but the man is insane on economics.
Not really picking the lesser of two evils when you have him on your ballot.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Can't believe you people are contributing to their coffers for that off chance that your vote will have an impact. :\Done
ugh. I feel ill, but it's for the greater good.
lol
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, I guess I'm just assuming that Bernier is both the person most likely to win who isn't O'Leary or Leitch, so I figure I should support him more the "most". lol
Urban Quebec votes might actually be worth a lot. I don't know how Conservative your riding is. The Conservatives are flush with cash every election anyway, any advantage money might be able to buy them they can already buy. Political donations also get you a tax credit, which they love to mention.
are the liberals losing support among millenials?
Man I wish I could roll my eyes more whenever you post garbage.
Not really
Man I wish I could roll my eyes more whenever you post garbage.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
I bet the CPC leadership will hire up a firm to buy info on members (Facebook and such), said firm will then categorize everyone in "fake members" and "real members" using some simple algorithm, and throw all the votes of the fake ones away.
I can understand how NDP support is down but how the hell is CPC support up?
People like Rona Ambrose.
God forbid they have a leader who might actually pull Millennials from the right flanks of the Liberals and Greens? The long-term isn't looking good for them.
It would be a hell of an about face on the carbon tax though. And maybe there' be a non-zero chance the party would splinter.
I wonder if obhrai knows that the conservatives laugh at him or does he thinks they laugh with him? At least he got a good zinger on O'Leary (maybe if you spent more time in Canada you'd know the constitution). There was one thing at the end that I caught that should be making O'Leary just not a viable pick. We know he still makes Boston his home, but man he made a gaff when he said "I want to go back home and tell them Canada is open for business". How does a statement like that not just turn conservatives away instantly.
Jesus christ, with the belly aching going on with the electoral reform people make it sound like they were abandoning ship. It's barely made a dent. All i see is CPC slightly up with NDP slightly down.
I stand by my sentiment that Trudeau is a coward regarding electoral reform, but I'm not about to flip my gourd and try to blow everything up because it sates my disappointment. It sucks. That's politics. There's next-best solutions and advances to be made elsewhere and I can't lose perspective.
Simon Belmont
Banned
My wife went to school with that guy. Hell of a nice guy.
Oh okay, that's fair. And yeah, since I can mail in, I guess it doesn't matter.
Maybe I just want it so I can burn it after the election...
Yazidi refugee effort proof that government listens and can work: Ambrose
I just want a healthy political culture, mainly. Better voting systems help, but only to a point.
I just want a healthy political culture, mainly. Better voting systems help, but only to a point.
Welcome news.
Well yeah, it's what the rational people here and elsewhere on the web have been saying for a while. The ones that are just complaining are a very loud and vocal minority. Sometimes GAF is a bubble (as is reddit).
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Hrm, Chong doesn't seem to sell memberships through his site (that I can see anyway). I guess just buying directly from the Conservatives is the next option? Or buying through Bernier?
No? https://www.chong.ca/membership_options
I bought mine before people had pages up to sell memberships (or maybe I just didn't know that buying through specific people was a thing).
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Oh weird, I went to this page:
http://michaelchong.ca/
Are MPs supposed to keep a separate page for party politics stuff and one for their "real" job?
They seem to all have websites for their riding. The NDP even has a standard template. If you're just looking to conduct normal business with your MP it'd be quite annoying to have to crawl through campaign stuff, I guess.
AuthenticM
Member
It's just a one-time fee. Parties make most of their money through regular donations and events, which I have no intention of doing.
We'll see if we can influence the outcome of the election. If the aftermath statistics show that we had no chance of doing so, then I won't do it again.
pr0cs
Member
It's a problem that goes beyond just the two particular sides though. You see it in a bunch of places, most not as serious as politics. But yes, both sides as well.
So, I'm considering moving from America to Toronto for a Uni program. I got to tour today, it was wonderful, your country is beautiful. I was just curious if any of you had a place you turn to more than any other for news or to understand Canadian politics. Given our recent (and terrifying) turn towards fascism, is there similar fear in Canada? During my visit I was asked about it a bit, so I was curious what the climate is like over on your side of the border.
CBC News is my go to for news and politics.
I do worry about fascism in Canada. If Kellie Leitch somehow wins the Conservative nomination then I'll be very afraid for the future of our country.
cryptosporidium
Member
Ive used /r/Canadapolitics, national post, cbc, and political parties social media for news. Dont goto globe and mail, i will boycott them forever for their horrid endorsement of harper last election
they said vote for him in the hope he resigns or some shit. literally the dumbest piece from a canadian paper ive ever read
CBC is your go to.
The Globe and Mail is good. But yeah, voting for someone in hopes they resign is dumb.
matthewwhatever
Member
I wouldn't count out people like Raitt and O'Toole. They're relatively sane, and I think you could put them ahead of Bernier and not worry about it helping O'Leary or Leitch -- it's a long road to 50%+1, and I suspect it's going to go about 10 rounds.
Don't get me wrong, I think Scheer holds some scary beliefs, but compared to some of the other candidates, he's not that bad.
And to your first point, as long as people are just buying memberships, they're not really contributing to CPC coffers. Their party president came and spoke to my class, and said that the price of a membership is less than how much it costs to process that member and send them mailouts (which includes leadership ballots).
I think a significant portion of Conservatives are turned off by him -- I can't find the iPolitics story, but just a few days ago they had a poll saying that something like 40% of members say that they're worried about his background. I imagine the more they see of him -- and the more he says dumb stuff like that -- the more that number is going to go up.
Yep. Anything to do with leadership runs needs to be paid for by their campaigns, and having the official MP sites double as leadership sites would violate that.
As several people here have said: electoral reform is a niche issue, and the number of voters moved primarily by that issue weren't voting Liberal to begin with. It probably doesn't help that CPC supporters are feeling invigorated by their race, while the NDP seems to be drifting aimlessly at the moment with a lame duck leader and not many clear policies. Things should pick up for them a little by the end of the year, though they'll still be in a pretty deep financial hole once the race is over.
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