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[NeckToChicken]

Lone didn't exactly seem that threatening yesterday so I'm betting on bodyguard proc'ing.

If LP was protecting franconp then this is a stupid chain of events.

If LP was protecting Blarg this is STILL a stupid chain of events. Damn it Blarg.

 

[NeckToChicken]

is there actually a way to do that?

Other than reasoning? Not that I know of.

We'll not know for sure, but speculation seems better than "oh well, bodyguard died probably shouldn't think about it". (Not that I'm accusing you of that, my language was just imprecise prior)

 

[rac]

maybe protected isaac 🤷*♀️

 

[NeckToChicken]

maybe protected isaac 🤷*♀️

But why? isaac's death is pretty much sealed unless we decide to pick the arsonist from thin air. STill, if LP thought scum would be targeting the doused he might have left something to indicate intent?

 

[Fat4all]

I doubt scum would target someone claiming doused for the lynch unless they were sure that they were a power role or sommit and wanted them out of the way ASAP.

 

[Fat4all]

edit: for the night kill

 

[rac]

forgot about that

 

[CornBurrito]

Ok. Vote: weemadarthur.

Still convinced you're scum.

 

[Dusk Soldier]

Lone didn't exactly seem that threatening yesterday so I'm betting on bodyguard proc'ing.

If LP was protecting franconp then this is a stupid chain of events.

If LP was protecting Blarg this is STILL a stupid chain of events. Damn it Blarg.

Why is it a stupid chain of events?

 

[franconp]

So Kark was vanilla townie. Are we going to spend another day trying to find the arsonist or are we finally try to catch some scum?

franconp is a Doctor

This is bullshit. I don't know what you tried to achieve so I would love some explains.

LP was a really low activity target so he probably died protecting someone. Could it be Blarg as he roleclaimed. Could it be me as Blarg did that weird post. If he died trying to kill me Blarg most likely is a scum.

Another option is that at least one scum is doused and they thought that LP could be the arsonist based in his low activity.

 

[NeckToChicken]

Why is it a stupid chain of events?

Because franconp wouldn't have been a likely target for neither bodyguard nor scum without that end of day interjection.

As for the "also stupid": we have no idea if the doctor has a restriction on protecting the same person two nights in a row or themselves. If not restricted, Blarg probably could've just sat tight and flexed without throwing that meat out. If so, then throwing that out there delays the mafia for a grand total of one night because franconp would've self targeted if he was able. If he's not able to self target OR can not target two days in a row, then congratulations then you got a grand total of one more doc night that will mean nothing. Why? They'll be putting the doc in the ground tonight so that power means nothing anymore.

And if you're going to say: "but an observation role could see who does the sick murder tonight, so it's a win". I would agree, if a watcher wasn't cold and dead already. Not smart money on another kicking around.

 

[kitsunelaine]

...I am genuinely surprised Krack wasn't scum or the arsonist.

 

[Dusk Soldier]

So Kark was vanilla townie. Are we going to spend another day trying to find the arsonist or are we finally try to catch some scum?

Arsonist at this point is too risky. Think we should focus on scum today.

 

[Dusk Soldier]

or we can sit around and twiddle our thumbs lol.

 

[Kalor]

I'll write a more substantial post at some point but I've had the idea that Corn is scum during this game.

Vote: CornBurrito

 

[Fat4all]

I was actually thinking about role claiming, I have a theory on what kind of other roles might still be around in the game.

My role reinforces that theory, as does the flipped dead so far.

 

[kitsunelaine]

I was actually thinking about role claiming, I have a theory on what kind of other roles might still be around in the game.

My role reinforces that theory, as does the flipped dead so far.

Please do. The more we have to discuss the more convoluted the web gets and the more fun the game is!

 

[franconp]

I was actually thinking about role claiming, I have a theory on what kind of other roles might still be around in the game.

My role reinforces that theory, as does the flipped dead so far.

Please don't. We don't need more roleclaims (unless your role is completly useless or you where x-shot and run out of shots. If so, do as you like).

 

[CornBurrito]

I'll write a more substantial post at some point but I've had the idea that Corn is scum during this game.

Vote: CornBurrito

K.

I mean weemad's vote pattern screams scum, but he's doused so if you lynch me hopefully he's killed anyway.

 

[Fat4all]

I guess I'll wait a bit longer to see if my theory pans out more before having to spill out my role. It's not completely useless (it's not an x-shot), but it's pretty limited in application.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I'm in agreement we can write off the doused players as targets, but that pretty much leaves everyone else in play as possible targets, including LP himself.

I was actually thinking about role claiming, I have a theory on what kind of other roles might still be around in the game.

My role reinforces that theory, as does the flipped dead so far.

Any way to share your theory without bursting that bubble or leading us on?

 

[rac]

would a scum team ever claim doused

 

[franconp]

I'm in agreement we can write off the doused players as targets, but that pretty much leaves everyone else in play as possible targets, including LP himself.



Any way to share your theory without bursting that bubble or leading us on?

Why would we write off the doused players as targets?

Let's forget there is an arsonist. So far only 2 players have claimed doused and neither of them is really high in mine trust list. If someone is scum we should for them. Being doused or not.

 

[CornBurrito]

I'm in agreement we can write off the doused players as targets, but that pretty much leaves everyone else in play as possible targets, including LP himself.



Any way to share your theory without bursting that bubble or leading us on?

You're the arsonist, aren't you?

 

[Fat4all]

Any way to share your theory without bursting that bubble or leading us on?

There's a common theme among some of the dead.

My role meshes with that theme.

I think isaac might of picked up on it yesterday as well, but I'm not certain.

I think I have an idea how the game is set up. But I have to reveal my role.

They might of been leaning another way.

 

[Fat4all]

would a scum team ever claim doused

No reason not to, scum would want to hunt the arsonist to save their teammate instead of hunting scum with town anyways.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Why would we write off the doused players as targets?

Let's forget there is an arsonist. So far only 2 players have claimed doused and neither of them is really high in mine trust list. If someone is scum we should for them. Being doused or not.

I see what you're saying, but that can probably be disproved much more easily. We just need to know if a third player was doused today. That will at least be consistent with an arsonist for now, and by the end of day 4, we'll know for sure because all of these players will be dead, right? It would make sense to postpone investigating the doused players at least that long, no?

You're the arsonist, aren't you?

That would be exciting, but sadly I am not. Just vanilla.

 

[franconp]

No reason not to, scum would want to hunt the arsonist to save their teammate instead of hunting scum with town anyways.

THIS so much. Looking for the arsonist is the best way for scum to lead the conversation away from them and to look cooperative.

 

[franconp]

I see what you're saying, but that can probably be disproved much more easily. We just need to know if a third player was doused today. That will at least be consistent with an arsonist for now, and by the end of day 4, we'll know for sure because all of these players will be dead, right? It would make sense to postpone investigating the doused players at least that long, no?



That would be exciting, but sadly I am not. Just vanilla.

How do you know the bolded? Do we even know how the mechanic works?

 

[CornBurrito]

Honestly there is a good reason to go after a player we think might be scum who also claims down.

If we are wrong and they are town, we confirm there is actually an arsonist.

If we are right and they are scum, arsonist is set back a kill AND we eliminate a threat to town.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

How do you know the bolded? Do we even know how the mechanic works?

I don't know for sure, but how many people do you honestly expect this arsonist would need to light on fire? Can't be more than 4.

Sorry I said Day 4, I meant the end of the next day or possibly even overnight.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Honestly there is a good reason to go after a player we think might be scum who also claims down.

If we are wrong and they are town, we confirm there is actually an arsonist.

If we are right and they are scum, arsonist is set back a kill AND we eliminate a threat to town.

Well, the additional problem is that I don't suspect wee and isaac more than I suspect you right now.

 

[Fat4all]

I don't know for sure, but how many people do you honestly expect this arsonist would need to light on fire? Can't be more than 4.

It's either gonna be a specific number of kills or they have to survive until either town or scum wins I'd imagine.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

It's either gonna be a specific number of kills or they have to survive until either town or scum wins I'd imagine.

Either is fine because the people will ignite and die eventually.

I don't know, I'm sorta of two minds on this approach tbh...

 

[CornBurrito]

Well, the additional problem is that I don't suspect wee and isaac more than I suspect you right now.

why

 

[franconp]

Here are the votes of day 1 (first 2 rows) and 3 (last row). I left out day 2 as I don't think there is much there, Zubz was lynched by a big margin. The people in red are the ones who died so far.

Of the NK Monkey and Nin were voting Cewyn D1. LP seems to have died protecting someone so we don't know who was the real target N3.

I still think all the people who voted for Cewyn D1 are most likely town. The votes were very close until near the end and Cewyn was a quite powerful role for the scum team to bus him D1.

People who I find weird looking at the votes like that:

- Dusk: He didn't voted in any of the possible lynches neither of the days. He stayed out of the Cewyn/Zubz/NoLynch D1 and also of the Kark/Launch/Wee D2. He voted for Zubz D2 but everyone else did so not much there. I would love to hear more from him about this.

- Isaac: Tunel on Kark. The first vote is really weak. D2 claimed doused and wasn't him the one who came with the theory of Arsonist Kark?

- Launch: Voted for Zubz when Cewyn's lynch was gaining steam. The justification was suspicious. Voted for Wee (puting her in the lead) but almost instantly changed it for Kark after agreeing with a post from Wee. Really weird interaction between them and Blarg.

I kinda want to see a Launch or Wee flip today.

 

[Blargonaut]

*chortle*

This is bullshit. I don't know what you tried to achieve so I would love some explains.

LP was a really low activity target so he probably died protecting someone. Could it be Blarg as he roleclaimed. Could it be me as Blarg did that weird post. If he died trying to kill me Blarg most likely is a scum.

Another option is that at least one scum is doused and they thought that LP could be the arsonist based in his low activity.

oh don't go all Lawful Good on me, fran. You're better than that; should know a bit of anti-scum WIFOM when you see it, yeah?

LP obviously died Protecting one of us. Most likely me. Not sure how that qualifies me as scum, especially after I've been CORRECT about the past 2 Days' lynchees. Dont wallow in the collective ignorance pour moi.

 

[Blargonaut]

Who wants another Role reveal? I doubt this one wants it

 

[Blargonaut]

Parties at Night when you least expect it

 

[Blargonaut]

 

[Fat4all]

i want

i want

 

[Fat4all]

cadbury cream egg party

 

[Fat4all]

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Who wants another Role reveal? I doubt this one wants it

Sad you didn't check me, but please give

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

why

I've stated before, you are seemingly on the outs with the rest of the conversation, like you want to set yourself apart from what will eventually be town lynches.

 

[NeckToChicken]

Honestly there is a good reason to go after a player we think might be scum who also claims down.

I assume you meant "claims doused" here? We'd be assuming a flip will mention that the person was doused, so no mention of dousing could mean either no arsonist, not doused, or simply that being doused doesn't appear on death. It WOULD be more information than nothing, but it doesn't seem to be the sure gamble you might think it is.

Chasing the arsonist's kills will delay them, sure, but to what end? If it's a certain number of targets do we let the arsonist pick our pool of targets and run them down all game while hoping the mafia kills the arsonist for us? If it's "survive until end of game" then all the arsonist needs to do is... keep dousing targets and they'll only face danger from the mafia. I'm not sure I want to do that.

I guess as long as we don't make a habit of it, there's some merit in checking one.

Who wants another Role reveal? I doubt this one wants it

If this means "I found the arsonist" I would really appreciate you being direct for once. It'll be a good cause this time instead of putting LP and the doc in harms way.

If it doesn't you should probably leave it be unless it looks like a scum role. Town is probably out of bodyguards at this point.

 

[NeckToChicken]

If someone got doused last night, looks like it's someone who hasn't popped back into the thread yet. I guess there's the off chance the arsonist doused LP before he got night killed?

 

[Fat4all]

I guess there's the off chance the arsonist doused LP before he got night killed?

That could be a possibility, or maybe some role-blocking stuff happened

Or whoever was doused doesn't want to say

 

[NeckToChicken]

If we are wrong and they are town, we confirm there is actually an arsonist.

Thinking about it some more, if they flip town and there's nothing that does prove an arsonist, as a townie would have no reason to lie. We'd definitely learn if doused appeared on flip or not.

A scum flipping would be more complex, but that's a good bridge to cross anyhow.

 

[NeckToChicken]

Thinking about it some more, if they flip town and there's no indication of dousing on flip that does prove an arsonist, as a townie would have no reason to lie about being doused. We'd also definitely learn if doused appeared on flip or not.

Quoting myself to fix bad wording. Whoops.

And if a town isaac did somehow did start an arsonist myth akin to a mass psychogenic illness then we're all torched in spirit anyhow.