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[NYCmetsfan]

This talk about decapitation strikes reminds me of the paranoia during the Cold War and how America's top brass wanted to nuke the Soviet Union while they still had the confidence of "only" losing Europe to nuclear fire and radioactive fallout. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union, which was scared as shit of America's nuclear arsenal, had to bluff big 24/7 in order to look much more menacing than it was, which probably played no small part in saving it from a preemptive strike.

Everybody go read this book.

people were ranting and raving for LBJ (I think?) to nuke the chinese because we couldn't allow Mao and a crazy underdeveloped Asian nation with bellicose language toward the US get a nuke, because they clearly were unstable and lead by a madman with a cult of personality and not subject to normal deterence and we needed to strike before they inevitable struck us...

������

 

[ISOM]

This talk about decapitation strikes reminds me of the paranoia during the Cold War and how America's top brass wanted to nuke the Soviet Union while they still had the confidence of "only" losing Europe to nuclear fire and radioactive fallout. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union, which was scared as shit of America's nuclear arsenal, had to bluff big 24/7 in order to look much more menacing than it was, which probably played no small part in saving it from a preemptive strike.

Everybody go read this book.

These people don't want to listen to reason. They're foaming at the mouth.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Didn't WW1 start over the death of a single guy.

No but yes. No in that war was inevitable. Yes in that franz Ferdinand's death ended up being the ultimate catalyst that caused a whole bunch of shit to cascade due to the web of agreements done by Bismarck.

That and the Germans using Belgium as a highway to France.

 

[Fenderputty]

I think most of the blame lies in China tbh, they have the power to calm things with NK but they aren't doing anything except if they attack someone? Well by then it will be pretty late. They have to realize Kim is a lunatic and make him stop.

So China can take on the rush of immigration at their border? Lol

China has reasons to keep NK stable.

 

[Occam]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

 

[pulsemyne]

This is what I'm wondering also. Sorry of it was answered already. Was the missile designed to break up in the air or was this a fault?

ICBM's tend to be 3 stage missiles or two stage. 3 stage is by far the most common.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

My worry is that once NK has the full capability to bomb the continental US, they will attack South Korea and Japan anyway, knowing that the US is not going to risk its own destruction for the sake of its allies.

If that is indeed what they will do, the solution would be to go to war with North Korea now.

Now, that's a big, high stakes if, so I'm not saying we should attack. I just... don't think this is clear cut.

This is a more rational fear rational stance but it 1) depends on the US not standing by its allies. 2) ignores the fact that SK and Japanese military still could conventionally destroy NK without nukes, kim knows this 3) the possibility of proliferation in the region

attacking still isn't justified. you can't and should attack a country because they "might attack you" pre-emptive war is fascist and immoral no matter the potential threat you face. Only imminent threats which would basically imply they attacked first. Provocation isn't justification

 

[Seik]

Can't wait for that day when a missile will go over my head and my first thought will be:

''Is cool bro.''

 

[Zyae]

You guys are insane if you think striking North Korea is the answer, or if you think that North Korea is going to start a war. That Roman analogy is absolutely absurd. Do you people realize how fast we could wipe literally every country off the planet? If North Korea launched a missile strike their entire country would cease to exist in less than 30 minutes. North Korea knows this, they will not do anything.

 

[KHarvey16]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

A good chance of little or no people dying is better than a virtual guarantee that millions will.

 

[crinale]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

The situation will get uglier if they start to export those missles.

 

[Aikidoka]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

How do you do that without having some sort of ISIS equivalent with ready access to nukes?

 

[Monkeyball]

You guys are insane if you think striking North Korea is the answer, or if you think that North Korea is going to start a war. That Roman analogy is absolutely absurd. Do you people realize how fast we could wipe literally every country off the planet? If North Korea launched a missile strike their entire country would cease to exist in less than 30 minutes. North Korea knows this, they will not do anything.

Like Irak, Afghanistan, Vietnam...

 

[Nere]

So China can take on the rush of immigration at their border? Lol

China has reasons to keep NK stable.

If you call this stable then I don't think we are on the same side of what stable means.

 

[Toros]

We need top game theorists stat to decide our next move.

 

[JordanN]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

Nope. Nope. Nope.

Nukes = M.A.D. They could have 1000 nukes like the USA or Russia does, nothing will change. Anytime a nuke is used, it's automatically game over.

 

[Fenderputty]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

Define "worse"

If you call this stable then I don't think we are on the same side of what stable means.

Yes, you're on the incorrect side. I'm speaking about their economy. China taking sanctions seriously would results in the collapsing of the NK economy and then China would have to deal with all of the incoming refugees. China keeps them a float because of this and because they don't want the US placing a military base on their border via the mixing of North and South Korea into one.

China telling them "we won't help you if you start a war" is their way of saying ... "Dude chill out so we can all stay happy in this centuries long prisoners dilemma"

 

[Stone Ocean]

Reminder: North Korea had enough plutonium for 20 nuclear warheads by the end of 2016. The longer the world delays destroying the North Korean regime, the worse it'll get.

Reminder: we don't live in a videogame world. Kim is not some JRPG villain that is stockpiling weapons to conquer the world.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The situation will get uglier if they start to export those missles.

why would they export those missiles, and how would they with UN sanctions?

and who is buying them that wouldn't get them from Iran, the US, Russia, China

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Even if a missile hit Japan there wouldn't be a war.

Hm, I'm not #team WW3, but a missile hitting Japanese soil would inevitably lead to a military response from Japan. No doubt about that, every state has to demonstrate it's absolute willingness to defense itself, no matter what.

 

[avaya]

Didn't WW1 start over the death of a single guy.

WWI happened in an era where there was no MAD scenario. The concept did not exist and there were alliances in place that guaranteed large scale conflict which was sparked by a political assassination.

One good thing about WW2 was that many nations realised that war has become so efficient in its ability to turn civilian population centres into entire cities of the dead that many (industrialised) nations realised it is never going to be worth it if their own cities were at risk. Even before having nuclear weapons, NK's ability to raise Seoul to the ground within the first 60mins of conflict left it in a de facto MAD scenario.

When's the last time they flew a missile over Japan? I didn't know they'd done it recently

As has been mentioned in the thread, I believe it was 2009.

 

[Netherscourge]

So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

 

[Maintenance]

They could sell some, for starters. Since they need money badly.

 

[SDCowboy]

Like Irak, Afghanistan, Vietnam...

Is this post satire?

 

[Oriel]

Dude I quoted you earlier this thread and you've brought up this happened 8 years ago. Your not thinking about who the President of the United States is and the kind of person he is. 8 years ago we didn't have Trump as president. This is NK being more of a dick then usual but the President of my country who many people view as the most powerful military nation in the world is mentally off. This maybe NK being a bigger dick but until we see how and what Trump does there's always that possibility of something happening that hasn't happened 8 years ago. Trump is not Obama or even George W.

Hey, I was simply correcting the assertion that this was the first NK missile to fly over JP territory, an erroneous claim repeated by many here. I don't see why I'm being attacked for introducing historical facts here.

 

[Protome]

Like Irak, Afghanistan, Vietnam...

Those were invasions. A response to a nuclear attack by any country would not be an invasion.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Nope. Nope. Nope.

Nukes = M.A.D. They could have 1000 nukes like the USA or Russia does, nothing will change.

Was reading a scholar on NK. NK is more A.D.

NK would be assuredly destroyed while the US would survive.

So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

He doesn't feel that way. We're literally practicing war games to end his regime.

 

[Jezbollah]

That was during an existing war.

An existing war that the US had officially no participation in until then.

 

[avaya]

Hm, I'm not #team WW3, but a missile hitting Japanese soil would inevitably lead to a military response from Japan. No doubt about that, every state has to demonstrate it's absolute willingness to defense itself, no matter what.

This principle will not escalate into a war though. What would you have Japan do? Try and bomb NK?

 

[megalowho]

I'm sick of ignoring the North Korean regime while they develop technology and pray they do nothing with that technology. Now they have weapons that can do actual harm to not only anyone in the immediate area but US territories as well. US mainland next year. The time to do something about NK was back when Obama was in office. Preferably earlier than that.

Angry letters don't count.
https://youtu.be/UIPSvIz9NDs

There's a entire movement of political thinking that supports the sentiment you're expousing here, preemtive wars led by the US on a global scale in the name of protecting democracy. It's called Neoconservatism and it didn't work too well in the Middle East.

Kim isn't being ignored, coordinated sanctions are applying intended pressure on the regime. Their military outbursts are predictable despite the desired appearance of instability, panic and appeasement from the global community is the point. Eagerness for the US to reignite the Korean War full scale given the known consequences is not a thoughtful or productive response to their provocations.

 

[Horp]

The key has to be to negotiate with China, make sure NK loses their life-line.

 

[Dopus]

If you call this stable then I don't think we are on the same side of what stable means.

Yeah, a failed state with millions of refugees would be optimal. I totally agree.

 

[zelas]

Not really, but I'm curious as to what the actual plans of the nations involved are.

Like you said, NK already has killed people and nothing has been done in retaliation because of a worry of the outcome. Is there a number of people that NK is free to kill before nations deem the bad outcomes of war to be acceptable?

Their end goal is to own a nuclear missile so they can be seen as equal to global powers. Do you think its worth it for millions to die to stop them from merely owning a nuclear missile? Do you think NK is going to achieve their goal of bullying their way into a seat at the table by ensuring their own destruction first? There is not going to be any war unless they decide they don't care about leveraging nuclear power anymore. And if shooting themselves in the head was something they were interested in then they could done that already without nuclear missiles.

 

[TaterTots]

I wonder how far this has to go before some people say, "enough." An actual attack on soil that kills a lot of lives? It could be prevented and cut casualties in half. All those people that heard/witnessed the missile were probably terrified. Lets not worry about them and continue to let NK live in a bubble when a good portion of its population wants to be liberated.

 

[dallow_bg]

Hey, I was simply correcting the assertion that this was the first NK missile to fly over JP territory, an erroneous claim repeated by many here. I don't see why I'm being attacked for introducing historical facts here.

You're technically correct I guess.
The best kind of correct, amiright?

This is the first true ICBM however whereas the 09 and 98 launches were with mere space launchers.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

+1,000,000.

North Korea is terrified, more than anyone in South Korea, Japan, or the US will ever understand (except those in Japan who still remember what it was like living during the firebombing.) It is the kind of existential terror that will make you do anything.

I'm wondering if this would have happened if Trump didn't ascend office. You know, Trump with his "fire and fury" quote probably did nothing except shock them.

Anyway, waiting on China's response and what NK has to say.

 

[KHarvey16]

Hm, I'm not #team WW3, but a missile hitting Japanese soil would inevitably lead to a military response from Japan. No doubt about that, every state has to demonstrate it's absolute willingness to defense itself, no matter what.

An inert test missile accidentally hitting Japan almost certainly would not cause a war.

But let's say it killed 100 people. Do you attack NK and provoke a response that kills millions? Is that a "no matter what" kind of situation?

 

[Oriel]

Yup, that's an SLV as I stated.

The Taepodong 2 is a three-stage ballistic missile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taepodong-2

 

[ISOM]

So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

That is the chance we HAVE to take because the other scenario is massive destruction the likes of which would make Nagasaki look like a joke. And if you think the U.S territories will be left scott free, you're living in a dream. But hey if massive loss of life is no worse to you then showing power, whatever.

 

[Stone Ocean]

So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

Which is hard for him to tell when the POTUS is threatening war.

 

[studyguy]

Seems they fired it directly out of Pongyang's main airport

https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/902290243642064896

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The key has to be to negotiate with China, make sure NK loses their life-line.

This would work if the US pretty much sold out SK and Japan to China. That's not happening.

China still views this as preferable to having US troops on their border.

Seems they fired it directly out of Pongyang's main airport

https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/902290243642064896

This is a good guy to follow on Asian conflict news.

Also that range and apogee seems like an IRBM?

Maybe trying to make up for bailing on guam?

 

[dallow_bg]

The Taepodong 2 is a three-stage ballistic missile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taepodong-2

You should keep reading that article.
"ballistic design" does not equal "ballistic missile"

At maximum range, the Taepodong-2 is estimated to have a payload capacity of less than 500 kg (~1,100 lbs).[4] North Korea has yet to demonstrate the ability to produce a re-entry vehicle, without which North Korea cannot deliver a weapon from an ICBM.[6]

In 2015, aerospace engineer and North Korea missile program analyst John Schilling stated that North Korea did not seem to be planning to create an operational ICBM from the Taepodong-2 technology, and that the Taepodong-2 had been mistakenly identified as an ICBM development, whereas in reality it was a space launch development vehicle.[7]

 

[KyanMehwulfe]

What could bring China to collapse NK?

What if the US financed the costs on China?

Almost nothing... They want a sustainable North Korea as a buffer between China and the US army stationed in South Korea. If it serves as both a buffer and a thorn in the side of the U.S., and also Japan, then that's even better.

They've no interest in a reunited Korean peninsula, nor a destabilized North Korea that creates a refugee problem on its border, nor having to 'govern' the shit hole NK is and therefor removing the buffer. The 'status quo' where North Korea constantly annoys and politically- or economically-challenges the U.S, but falls short of war, is their preference. And even more so if it involves also creating problems for Japan.

Only way they collapse NK is if somehow they think that the border crisis a proactive action would create will be much less worse than allowing an inevitable US-created border crisis (e.g. if they think the U.S. is inevitably going to collapse NK and make it far worse than if they did it themselves). The lesser of two evils.

But otherwise they'd be perfectly fine with NK remaining and remaining an annoyance, threat, but not actual engaged in direct war.

 

[dofry]

Do we know how far past Japan it landed in the water? Because the only thing past that trajectory is North America.

1180km. That is based on what they keep saying on Japanese TV.

 

[Zyae]

Like Irak, Afghanistan, Vietnam...

Um, what?

 

[ibyea]

I wonder how far this has to go before some people say, "enough." An actual attack on soil that kills a lot of lives? It could be prevented and cut casualties in half. All those people that heard/witnessed the missile were probably terrified. Lets not worry about them and continue to let NK live in a bubble when a good portion of its population wants to be liberated.

That has happened to S. Korea, shellings and ship sinking and such, so no. And it is a stupid suggestion anyways.

 

[kmax]

Attacks are the last thing we want. If NK's going out, they're taking Seoul with them.

 

[Oriel]

people were ranting and raving for LBJ (I think?) to nuke the chinese because we couldn't allow Mao and a crazy underdeveloped Asian nation with bellicose language toward the US get a nuke, because they clearly were unstable and lead by a madman with a cult of personality and not subject to normal deterence and we needed to strike before they inevitable struck us...

������

Ditto towards Uncle Joe getting the Bomb prior to 1949.

 

[Horp]

This would work if the US pretty much sold out SK and Japan to China. That's not happening.

China still views this as preferable to having US troops on their border.

Yeah, I have no good suggestions. Just saying that I think thats a much MUCH better way to try to solve this problem than nukes and shit. Also probably better than letting Kim be.