North Korea launches missile that passes over Japan

How large of a role does chinese anti-japanese sentiment play in their reaction to the possibility of NK aggression against Japan?
 
So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

If he wasn't capable of killing millions of South Koreans or Japanese why wouldn't we attack and remove him? It's 100% self preservation.
 
Hm, I'm not #team WW3, but a missile hitting Japanese soil would inevitably lead to a military response from Japan. No doubt about that, every state has to demonstrate it's absolute willingness to defense itself, no matter what.

This. Japan can't be expected to just sit back and let NK bomb them at will. That's like asking Britain to just ignore the Blitz during WW2.

NK is playing a dangerous game here. If that missile somehow malfunctioned and landed on Japan instead of the sea as intended, the slippery slope to war suddenly becomes a cliff all because of what they originally intended to be just another sabre rattle moment went south in a hurry.
 
That looks like a Hawaii trajectory. Or maybe i'm looking at the gif wrong :/ The trajectory is the black line?

The black line is for the distance between the launch and the place it impacted, here being 1193km. The trajectory is represented by the movement the missile icon used to go from the launch pin to the impacted place.

How is this tolerable? I've been to Japan last year during months, crossing the country by bicycle, camping anywhere I could, eating what I could find and meeting peaceful and open minded people, always there to help even when we couldn't understand each other.

Hokkaido is far place from the technology craziness Tokyo or Osaka can be, there are farmers and old people around there, with desolated lands and pure nature, seeing warning on TV or over the radio must have been frightening for people around there. God I'm checking writing this thinking about those lost souls.

Sure the missile impacted really far from a populated place, but how in the world North Korean could think it would be okay to do something like this? Are they really trying to impress anyone, thinking it will help the fear Regime? It sure more striking than hearing story about Daech or ISIS since it would not really escalate on the same scale, but good damn...
 
So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Pandora's box was opened when the Soviet Union got nukes.

It's too late for humanity to change their mind on nuclear weapons.

Either a country uses them and they all get wiped out, or they just sit in the silos forever like that's already the case with USA, Russia, France, UK, Pakistan, India etc.

Think about why would North Korea use them? For the lawls? Come on. No different to asking why doesn't a U.S submarine just launch one right now.
 
Here's the thing: North Korea won't probably attack any country with nuclear weapons (although it may take some potshots) because it knows that the only way out of that mess would be the full invasion of South Korea, which would require the mobilization of its entire army. And North Korea can't mobilize its army without starving the entire nation, which would impede the war effort within weeks.

So this kind of angry, dangerous dick waving is all it has.
 
So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

Have you ever actually considered the North Korean stance? Do you honestly believe that they don't think the United States is a threat to their existence?
 
friendly reminder that north korea and south korea and japan are not just names on a map and in scary headlines that take place a world over, they're by and large made up of innocent people, family to someone you probably know. not 'acceptable losses' to soothsay your paranoia or whatever language you're using to pad that reasoning

sorry if you lack the perspective or compassion to understand this or the possibility of options that don't cost these people their lives
 
Diplomatically, maybe. He also knows we have no good options and is leveraging that to make it clear why no one should attack him.

NK is slowly dying. The notion that he wants to maintain is non-existent because it means NK dies off. He needs more money flowing into his country to survive. Launching missiles over our allies is not helping his case.
 
So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

You can't do anything unless you suddenly are OK with 10 million dead South Koreans.

You can continue to sanction them, much more harshly than today. A lot of financial sanctions are never enforced properly.
 
So we just sit around and wait as Kim builds up an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ICBMs and then...

Letting him recklessly test fire rockets over Japan's mainland to improve his technology? Regularly terrorizing Japan and South Korea? Maybe 'accidentally' killing a few people with malfunctioning rocketry?

What are we waiting for exactly? A coup attempt? A sudden terminal illness? Death by old age?

What is HE waiting for exactly? Kim doesn't need to do this to stay in power.

I hope you guys are right about this stuff. But I don't see it playing out as just saber rattling much longer.

1. And then what?
2. They deal with this constantly already
3. We're waiting for them to attack or we will continue the status quo
4. He's not waiting for anything. He's waving his dick and changing the power dynamic so a strike first invasion isn't an option for us anymore without thinking about nukes.
 
I'm sick of ignoring the North Korean regime while they develop technology and pray they do nothing with that technology. Now they have weapons that can do actual harm to not only anyone in the immediate area but US territories as well. US mainland next year. The time to do something about NK was back when Obama was in office. Preferably earlier than that.

Angry letters don't count.
https://youtu.be/UIPSvIz9NDs

Is funny because, this scalation happened, because Trump was barking at them. They are now, trying desperatly to sound dangerous and menacing, I mean they are, but they aren't stupid either.

Those people just want to have a nice life as the elite of some poor country. They're piggybacking their luxurious life and the expense of millions of people. They know the moment they attack US, is over, their precious lifestyle is over, their privileges are over.

But even a scared dog might end biting, Trump is pushing these people to the edge. The regime must end, but this is the worst way to end it. Didn't you fuckers did harm enough, thinking you are the world police? Remember when you started the last Irak war and created ISIS? Enough is enough.
 
Here's the thing: North Korea won't probably attack any country with nuclear weapons (although it may take some potshots) because it knows that the only way out of that mess would be the full invasion of South Korea, which would require the mobilization of its entire army. And North Korea can't mobilize its army without starving the entire nation, which would impede the war effort within weeks.

So this kind of angry, dangerous dick waving is all it has.

You might be right. But, I honestly think Kim is bordeline insane. Add to that that there might be internal politics pressuring him.
 
NK is playing a dangerous game here. If that missile somehow malfunctioned and landed on Japan instead of the sea as intended, the slippery slope to war suddenly becomes a cliff all because of what they originally intended to be just another sabre rattle moment went south in a hurry.

I think that's the scariest part of it all, they don't seem to give a shit if they started a war. That missile could have easily fucked up
 
NK is slowly dying. The notion that he wants to maintain is non-existent because it means NK dies off. He needs more money flowing into his country to survive. Launching missiles over our allies is not helping his case.

North Korea had it worse in the 90s with a famine that killed over a million people and they still survived. Not to mention post 90s North Korea is a different country in that people inside the country are more informed and get stuff from black market.
 
With NKs shit track record, their lucky as fuck that missile didn't mess up and actually hit Japan. The fact that is actually didn't is astounding TBH.

Assuming their goal was just to shoot over Japan and nothing else.
 
That has happened to S. Korea, shellings and ship sinking and such, so no. And it is a stupid suggestion anyways.

Lets be honest, if NK keeps advancing and one of those missiles comes near Hawaii or something its over anyway. I've read enough to know the population is miserable over there. We shouldn't be turning a blind eye in the first place.
 
Is funny because, this scalation happened, because Trump was barking at them. They are now, trying desperatly to sound dangerous and menacing, I mean they are, but they aren't stupid either.

Those people just want to have a nice life as the elite of some poor country. They're piggybacking their luxurious life and the expense of millions of people. They know the moment they attack US, is over, their precious lifestyle is over, their privileges are over.

But even a scared dog might end biting, Trump is pushing these people to the edge. The regime must end, but this is the worst way to end it. Didn't you fuckers did harm enough, thinking you are the world police? Remember when you started the last Irak war and created ISIS? Enough is enough.

They've been escalating and provoking SK,Japan and the U.S long before Trump was president.
 
This principle will not escalate into a war though. What would you have Japan do? Try and bomb NK?

I think they'd retaliate by directly attacking the launch pad. That's not my "recommendation", just what I expect. This could escalate, of course, of lead to a new round of debates with China, at the very least.
 
You're technically correct I guess.
The best kind of correct, amiright?

This is the first true ICBM however whereas the 09 and 98 launches were with mere space launchers.

There's an enormous overlap between space launchers and ballistic missiles. The Taepodong-2 is both incidentally. The Russians converted many of their ICBM's into launchers after the Cold War ended.
 
Pentagyon

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Man I just want to graduate from grad school and reap the benefits of my hard work for 20ish yrs. Can we delay the Armageddon till then?
 
Hey, I was simply correcting the assertion that this was the first NK missile to fly over JP territory, an erroneous claim repeated by many here. I don't see why I'm being attacked for introducing historical facts here.


I don't know you or know what you've been threw in your life. But telling people to calm down when the OP says he woke up to this shit and Japanese people who may not be use to this are claiming to hear the missile fly over head tends to rub people the wrong way. There are people in here who live in Japan and they are scare for a good reason. Then they are other people like me who automatically thinks of how my nation (US) will react, especially with someone like Trump in office. I read this and saw this in the news and yes my thinking is that the next 4 years will be the most likely we will see the US invade or wipe out NK. If it doesn't happen with Trump then it'll never happen.
 
You might be right. But, I honestly think Kim is bordeline insane. Add to that that there might be internal politics pressuring him.

Kim is not a religious fanatic. He is just your standard dictator. He cares about personal survival not some ideology for which he would martyr himself.
 
Lets be honest, if NK keeps advancing and one of those missiles comes near Hawaii or something its over anyway. I've read enough to know the population is miserable over there. We shouldn't be turning a blind eye in the first place.

It's not turning a blind eye. It is letting generational change happen in the first place. And believe me, surely but slowly North Korea is changing. Post 90s famine North Korea is a different place.
 
I wonder how far this has to go before some people say, "enough." An actual attack on soil that kills a lot of lives? It could be prevented and cut casualties in half. All those people that heard/witnessed the missile were probably terrified. Lets not worry about them and continue to let NK live in a bubble when a good portion of its population wants to be liberated.
Yeah, we should worry about those poor people that would die in the event of any military action, alongside people from Japan and South Korea from retaliation attacks and however many would die if the US started a war against China.

All of you warmongers, get this: this is a stalemate for a reason and not due to a lack of the US wanting to shit completely over NK.
 
I think they'd retaliate by directly attacking the launch pad. That's not my "recommendation", just what I expect. This could escalate, of course, of lead to a new round of debates with China, at the very least.

I would wager a lot of money that Japan wouldn't do shit unless the missile actually had a warhead on it.
 
The key has to be to negotiate with China, make sure NK loses their life-line.
Well China recently committed to not importing coal from NK which is NKs largest export, so it just comes down to continuing with economic pressure as long as countries like China are willing to stand united on that front.
 
Sorry if this was covered somewhere, but is Japan capable of defending itself and launching a counter? I don't know the extent of their anti-military WWII agreements.
 
NK is slowly dying. The notion that he wants to maintain is non-existent because it means NK dies off. He needs more money flowing into his country to survive. Launching missiles over our allies is not helping his case.

And when he has those missiles he gets a big boost at the international stage. This literally happened with the China. We spent to decades ignoring Mao and the PRC. He gets nukes in the 60s? A few years later nixon goes to china and less than 10 years later we get the Shanghi Communique.

Not saying that will happen with NK but with his defense secured he can then focus on economic development. At least that's what he's shown to be his intention

NK GDP is higher than Israel's was when they built their nuke program and their GDP per capita is higher than China's and I think India's.
 
Shit just catching up with this. So it flew over the Japanese landmass and through Japanese airspace? Did it land in Japanese territorial waters?
 
Can people stop with the "this is just dick waving" bullshit?

Real people living in a real country just had a fucking missile fired over their heads. Have some respect and compassion.
 
You might be right. But, I honestly think Kim is bordeline insane. Add to that that there might be internal politics pressuring him.

Kim is extremely rational. Just like his fat father, he likes his high life of imported Hennessy, western films and sky resorts build by the army. He's a venal man who has never endured any hardships and wants to keep it that way for as long as he lives.

Kim believes that nuclear weapons will allow him a seat at the big boys table and prevent a first strike. North Korea may be a crazy place, but the man in charge knows exactly what he wants. And he wants to keep enjoying the hog life.


Can people stop with the "this is just dick waving" bullshit?

Real people living in a real country just had a fucking missile fired over their heads. Have some fucking respect and compassion.
You can have respect and compassion while acknowledging the fact that this was some puerile posturing and not a war opening salvo.
 
There's an enormous overlap between space launchers and ballistic missiles. The Taepodong-2 is both incidentally. The Russians converted many of their ICBM's into launchers after the Cold War ended.

Who am I going to trust more, you, or John Schilling about NK rocket technology?
He has definitively stated the Taepodong-2 is not.
 
Pandora's box was opened when the Soviet Union got nukes.

It's too late for humanity to change their mind on nuclear weapons.

Either a country uses them and they all get wiped out, or they just sit in the silos forever like that's already the case with USA, Russia, France, UK, Pakistan, India etc.

Think about why would North Korea use them? For the lawls? Come on. No different to asking why doesn't a U.S submarine just launch one right now.

Except the US and Russia have an agreement to reduce their stockpile, and the UN has been pushing for nuclear disarmament.
 
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