North Korea launches missile that passes over Japan

avaya said:
Why was it opened when the Soviet Union got nukes?

It was already always going to happen somewhere the moment when Meitner, Hahn and Strassmann discovered Fission. You can't unlearn things. It was always there waiting to be discovered.
Click to expand...

If the USSR never gotten them (which they only did through espionage from the Manhattan project) I couldn't imagine another country being able to challenge a U.S monopoly on them.

Especially as the Soviet Union only had the military means to challenge America after WW2. Any other country attempting it would get Osirak'd.
 
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1203785/bombs-and-dollars/

Here's info on how NK compares to other countries when they built nukes

All this is based on the view that GDP–or some other, comparable measure of economic output–is the single best proxy for "resources." We often make the mistake of thinking of countries as "rich" or "poor" as a whole based on their GDP per capita. While that's a good measure for level of development, it doesn't tell you what sort of pool of resources the state potentially has at its command. For that question, just plain old GDP is the way to go.

Here's what I found:

Country & year GDP ($1M 1990 USD)
USA 1945 $1,644,761
India 1974 $500,146
USSR 1949 $465,631
China 1964 $450,312
UK 1952 $357,585
France 1960 $344,609
Pakistan 1998 $139,063
South Africa 1978 $116,077
North Korea 2006 $25,310
Israel 1967 $16,758
Ital. = no confirmed nuclear tests.

Yep, that's right! North Korea, as poor as it is, isn't at the bottom of the list.

Israel in 1967 was, as a whole, poorer than North Korea in 2006, as a whole. For perspective, Israel had fewer than 3 million people then; North Korea had about 25 million in 2006.

Also surprising: India and China are near the top of the list. But the same sort of observation applies: they were (and are) hugely populous, much moreso than the European countries just below China in the list.
Click to expand...


The "GDP per capita" version of the list (not shown here) is much more intuitive: the bottom three countries are North Korea (2006), India (1974), and China (1964), China being the poorest per capita. But, as I've argued above, that's not relevant to a centralized national project like making the Bomb. Our intuitions about wealth and poverty mislead us on this score.
Click to expand...

Massive Duck said:
So you think the Japanese government sending everyone warnings was pissing itself?

Cool
Click to expand...

No, but a lot more rational than people declaring WWIII.

They were taking precautions.
 
Zophar said:
Trump is not going to take us to war with North Korea. If he wants to have a war, he only wants one that will make him look good and not result in immense blowback. A war that wipes Seoul off the map and results in millions of dead/catastrophic economic damage, and potentially even nuclear escalation is not a war that will cast Trump in a favorable light.
Click to expand...

You forget that Trump is an idiot.
 
Xyrmellon said:
Some are suggesting the missile may not have broken up and it could have been a simulated mirv attack.
Click to expand...
That was my immediate thought when they said it broke up into pieces. I'm also curious if they tried to shoot it down but failed, because that was also the aim of this launch, to test defences.


Maiden Voyage said:
I assume it is to payback the Americans for our war and potentially get SK back.
Click to expand...
This isn't a movie.
 
JordanN said:
So is Trump. And this is the guy who DOES want to use them.

ZuIfJJ8.jpg


We're screwed either way. No point letting both bad guys get their wish.
Click to expand...

The world is much more scared of Trump than they are of North Korea, that's why Kim is pushing things to the absolute limit. He knows they will have to appease him eventually because every sane country is worried that Trump could launch a military strike.
 
Foxy the Fox said:
Has NK ever launched a missile against japan like that? I know they always launch missiles near their own country just to scare other countries but this is the first time they launched something that went across the whole country right?

I don't think Japan is going to let it pass, what could be the consequences of this?

I know President Trump had some hunger to destroy NK asap.
Click to expand...

It was launched over Japan. Not against.
 
Stone Ocean said:
Yeah, we should worry about those poor people that would die in the event of any military action, alongside people from Japan and South Korea from retaliation attacks and however many would die if the US started a war against China.

All of you warmongers, get this: this is a stalemate for a reason and not due to a lack of the US wanting to shit completely over NK.
Click to expand...

Oh pls. If we keep letting NK get on with this they may have the balls to actually hit a real target. Causing more casualties than if we intervene. Gotta say, I'm really glad some of you aren't in charge of anything important. That would be truly terrifying with what you would let slide.
 
Foxy the Fox said:
Has NK ever launched a missile against japan like that? I know they always launch missiles near their own country just to scare other countries but this is the first time they launched something that went across the whole country right?

I don't think Japan is going to let it pass, what could be the consequences of this?

I know President Trump had some hunger to destroy NK asap.
Click to expand...

I read a Japanese article that said that the last trajectory over Japan was a satellite rocket launch in 2012. An actual missile is of course entirely different. We're chartering dangerous waters.

There's also a good timeline of their attempts.
 
This is far and away the most aggressive act committed by NK. Would not be surprised if this begins a military action against it.

This aggression was of course an act of war, no doubt there are many meetings right now between allies to decide what is the next step.
 
Neith said:
It's not certain at all that millions would be dead. I can't see an attack provoking some random oh that was a medium hit let's see if they respond kind of thing. If they hit, it will be all out, and who is going to wage the war of atrocity against an innocent people?

Last I heard not everyone in this government even likes the leader at this point.
Click to expand...

But they like not being executed with anti-aircraft guns, which is what happens if they waver.
 
Maiden Voyage said:
I assume it is to payback the Americans for our war and potentially get SK back.
Click to expand...
The North Korean leadership doesn't have any aspirations of conquering South Korea. Despite what their propaganda may proclaim, they're under no illusions of their military's capabilities. The idea that they're going to take revenge against the US is even more absurd.

El_Mau said:
But those actions could start one, what if the missile fails and lands in Japan? That could start an armed conflict.
Click to expand...
The missile isn't going to have a warhead so any crash onto Japanese military is going to be an obvious accident. North Korea may be escalating, but they're falling far short of provoking a war.
 
dallow_bg said:
Who am I going to trust more, you, or John Schilling about NK rocket technology?
He has definitively stated the Taepodong-2 is not.
Click to expand...

Sigh....

FACTBOX: North Korea's Taepodong-2 long-range missile
Reuters Staff
(Reuters) - North Korea has positioned what is believed to be a long-range ballistic missile on a launch pad, a U.S. counterproliferation official said.
Click to expand...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-korea-north-missile-factbox-idUSTRE52P03Q20090326

You can continue arguing with yourself over semantics, I'm done trying to explain this.
 
Oriel said:
Yeah, silly me for wanting to inject some reasoned and informed commentary into a thread full of people pissing themselves over a test launch.
Click to expand...


For the love of... yo, am I typing in spanish!?!?!? Pissing themselves over a test launch? The OP woke up to a alert because he lives in Japan, there are people in this thread that lives in Japan and are worried. Yeah its just a test launch for those people. Speaking of test launch, how many NK test failed in the past? Yeah, people are pissing themselves for no reason. With that post you just proved that you don't get it and I'm wasting my time talking with you.
 
III-V said:
This is far and away the most aggressive act committed by NK. Would not be surprised if this begins a military action against it.

This aggression was of course an act of war, no doubt there are many meetings right now between allies to decide what is the next step.
Click to expand...

Im sorry but until something besides the ocean gets hit. I don't see how you make the decision damning millions of South Koreans.
 
SDCowboy said:
NK isn't landlocked.It has water on 2:4 sides...
Click to expand...

...or surrounded by other countries.. they don’t have a clear route to open water as Japan is so close to the east. I', actually curious how countries would go about doing this. Large places like the US or Russia have enough landmass to do it all internally
 
Relaxed Muscle said:
But they didn't attack any of these countries directly.
Click to expand...

It's the classic "i'm just punching the air why did you get in my way" defence. Certainly a step down from just king-hitting the country but a poor attempt to disguise hostility as... god, i don't know. negligence?

it is a step down though i'll agree to that.
 
TaterTots said:
Oh pls. If we keep letting NK get on with this they may have the balls to actually hit a real target. Causing more casualties than if we intervene. Gotta say, I'm really glad some of you aren't in charge of anything important. That would be truly terrifying with what you would let slide.
Click to expand...

A war in this region would be complete madness. Even if it a fast military success, many people would die. And reunitig South Korea and North Korea will cost a lot more money than the German reunification. Probably over ten trillion US dollars.
 
III-V said:
This is far and away the most aggressive act committed by NK. Would not be surprised if this begins a military action against it.

This aggression was of course an act of war, no doubt there are many meetings right now between allies to decide what is the next step.
Click to expand...

In 2010 they did artillery strikes against an island with civilians living on it. This is far from the most aggressive act they've done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong
 
KHarvey16 said:
This is 100% a sabre rattling exercise with the goal of keeping people from killing him. And it'll work because we don't have any options.
Click to expand...

Securing Chinese cooperation is the key to cutting this particular Gordian knot. As the only country with notable foreign influence in North Korea it's probably the only one that could hold leverage over them, the only ones that could execute a coup with any chance of success, and if anybody was contemplating a military solution, an invasion from China would circumvent essentially all of their 50 years of military preparations.

North Korea may actually seem less threatening in 15-20 years than it does now, because while it may climb to a nuclear arsenal of 50-100 and have intercontinental range, technologically speaking advances in BMD and CRAM (assuming that's the path Japan and South Korea want to go) could more or less neutralize this as a serious deterrent.
 
North Korea doesn't need to be the way it is in order to survive and serve as a buffer state between China and South Korea.
I never understood why they never emulated China's economic growth model.
 
Regulus Tera said:
He is commander in chief. If the military doesn't follow him, he will replace whoever is in charge until he gets to someone who listens to him. Never mind that a military refusing to exercise their duty is an incredibly dangerous precedent to set.
Click to expand...

Depends on the order given because if the it's something crazy like Generals / Chiefs getting fired for not following launching pre-emptive nukes that shit would get leaked out like yesterday. And, he would be impeach the next day.
 
III-V said:
I did not make any decision or damn anyone. Did you quote the wrong poster?
Click to expand...

I quoted the correct person. Sorry I was not trying to say that is what "you" would be doing or advocating. I was talking about the people in your post that are meeting on decisions.
 
ThoseDeafMutes said:
Securing Chinese cooperation is the key to cutting this particular Gordian knot. As the only country with notable foreign influence in North Korea it's probably the only one that could hold leverage over them, the only ones that could execute a coup with any chance of success, and if anybody was contemplating a military solution, an invasion from China would circumvent essentially all of their 50 years of military preparations.
Click to expand...
I believe that North Korea's border with China is also fortified, if not so heavily as their southern frontier. In any case, the chance of an attack from China is nil under any foreseeable scenario.

Liha said:
Yes, but they are going down sooner or later?
Click to expand...
It's in the middle of the ocean. Your average bird is going to be more dangerous.
 
The rational response to this problem seems simple: tit for tat. The US or someone else should fire a missile over North Korea. Maybe drop some leaflets too
 
Experts like everything have varying shades of grey opinion on this. I find it foolish to try and paint all experts with a broad brush.

Even if most agree war isn't coming they still have varying nuanced opinions on the matter. As always those GAF threads like this become a binary either or.
 
Wtf does this bitch even want? Does he just want to sit with the big dudes around the table at meetings? Why not allow him.

I fucking despise the fuck and I wouldn't hesitate for a minute to shoot the fucker in the head
 
Zophar said:
Trump is not going to take us to war with North Korea. If he wants to have a war, he only wants one that will make him look good and not result in immense blowback. A war that wipes Seoul off the map and results in millions of dead/catastrophic economic damage, and potentially even nuclear escalation is not a war that will cast Trump in a favorable light.
Click to expand...


Someone hasn't been paying attention
 
Trouble said:
In 2010 they did artillery strikes against an island with civilians living on it. This is far from the most aggressive act they've done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong
Click to expand...

I hear you, and I can concede that point, but they are technically still at war with SK.

JetBlackPanda said:
I quoted the correct person. Sorry I was not trying to say that is what "you" would be doing or advocating. I was talking about the people in your post that are meeting on decisions.
Click to expand...

Gotcha. Well, there are people to go to war for less, and in a case like this, I do feel a bit pessimistic given our current president.
 
JordanN said:
If the USSR never gotten them (which they only did through espionage from the Manhattan project) I couldn't imagine another country being able to challenge a U.S monopoly on them.
Click to expand...

Cute. You think this could have sustained a US monopoly on atomic weapons. Why do you think that? It's basic science. Many countries were pursuing them including Germany where the majority of the scientists who were responsible for the bomb where actually working. There was already a "wtf is going on here" moment when many prominent names in physics suddenly stopped publishing papers. Germany was actively researching, led by Heisenberg, the Manhattan project was initiated because Sziliard was terrified the Germans would be pursuing the bomb too.

Fuchs spying only accelerated the project Kurchatov had already started, the estimate by people like Rabi and Bethe is that caught them up 5yrs. They all expected the Soviets to eventually figure it out. It was a trivial problem. Groves tried to buy the entire world Uranium supply till Oppenheimer and co had to explain to him Uranium is actually quite abundant in the Soviet Union.

Remember the US refused to then share hydrogen bomb technology post WW2 with the British (even though there were many British/German scientists who were critical to Manhattan). The British came up with it themselves. Then the US and UK refused to share with France. The French came up with it themselves. Everyone forgot the Chinese. They came up with it themselves. By the time the 70s were around the Indians had it too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

George Foreman passes away at 76
43
2K
MrA replied
US Oil tanker and Portuguese cargo vessel collide in North Sea
2
79
4K
Wildebeest replied
South Korea in chaos as President orders martial law
News  2
61
5K
DeafTourette replied
Trades that were supposed to put teams over the top but didn't
20
925
StreetsofBeige replied
2025 Movies - North American Release Schedule
4
2K
dispensergoinup replied
Top Bottom