German Federal Elections 2017 |OT| Electing the new leader of the free world

results are in now:

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some structual data:
unemployment
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foreigner percentage
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direct vote:
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voter turnout:
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interesting how Bavaria gained the most followed by East Germany. The West has the lowest change

AFD 2013 vs 2017
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FDP
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Greens
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Valhelm said:
Could you speak more about the leadership problems?

All I know is that Wagenknecht, despite being of an immigrant Muslim background, has made some overly conciliatory comments toward people who hate refugees.
Click to expand...

Iranian background. And yeah, she did.

Problem is with both of their leaders, they aren't inspirational. Bartsch is basically nothing. They know that, thats why he plays second fiddle.


But Wagenknecht is the perfect second fiddle, not a good leader. She is great at attacking, tearing opponents apart at talk shows, but not inspiring people. Her vision is socialism and disregarding what someone thinks about socialism, you gotta win people over. She doesn't.

Linke is caught up between their socialdemocratic wing and their socialistic wing. The socialdemocratic wing is toothless, the socialistic not consequent and busy playing "AfD" might have a point.
 
355 seats needed for majority

246 CDU/CSU
153 SPD
94 AFD
80 FDP
69 Linke
67 Greens

you can't in any way do a minority administration this way and hope for 30 votes form different party


last year CDU/CSU was just 5 total seats away from a majority by their own
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Guten Morgen, Schland.
So, how's everyone doing? Have you reconciled with the results? I'm still reeling.

Slightly off topic, but:
I like the data visualisation on voter movement on http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/btw17/waehlerwanderung-115.html

Left is the previous election in 2013, right side is the current election. Click on a party and see how votes got shuffled around. This is obviously based on a statistical model backed by polls and other such stuff and not data mined out of the actual voting database, so don't expect it to be overly precise. Still, it is neat to look at, at the very least.

Glossary:
Andere - Others (all small parties below 5%)
Nichtwähler - non-voters, those who abstained from voting
Zuzug - immigrants
Wegzug - emigrants
Neuwähler - new voters, those that just turned old enough to vote
Verstorben - deceased
 
CTLance said:
Guten Morgen, Schland.
So, how's everyone doing? Have you reconciled with the results? I'm still reeling.

Slightly off topic, but:
I like the data visualisation on voter movement on http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/btw17/waehlerwanderung-115.html

Left is the previous election in 2013, right side is the current election. Click on a party and see how votes got shuffled around. This is obviously based on a statistical model backed by polls and other such stuff and not data mined out of the actual voting database, so don't expect it to be overly precise. Still, it is neat to look at, at the very least.

Glossary:
Andere - Others (all small parties below 5%)
Nichtwähler - non-voters, those who abstained from voting
Zuzug - immigrants
Wegzug - emigrants
Neuwähler - new voters, those that just turned old enough to vote
Verstorben - deceased
Click to expand...

Afd being strong in the countryside doesn't come as a surprise, sadly. At least in my state the left (Die Linke) are second strongest behind CDU. This country is torn.
 
CTLance said:
Guten Morgen, Schland.
So, how's everyone doing? Have you reconciled with the results? I'm still reeling.

Slightly off topic, but:
I like the data visualisation on voter movement on http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/btw17/waehlerwanderung-115.html

Left is the previous election in 2013, right side is the current election. Click on a party and see how votes got shuffled around. This is obviously based on a statistical model backed by polls and other such stuff and not data mined out of the actual voting database, so don't expect it to be overly precise. Still, it is neat to look at, at the very least.

Glossary:
Andere - Others (all small parties below 5%)
Nichtwähler - non-voters, those who abstained from voting
Zuzug - immigrants
Wegzug - emigrants
Neuwähler - new voters, those that just turned old enough to vote
Verstorben - deceased
Click to expand...

Still wondering what'll happen if there's not gonna be a Jamaica coalition, honestly. It's probably gonna be passed anyway, but the options will go from AfD opposition to re-elections, which probably could turn out even worse.

Oh well, at least after yesterday's interviews I'm more than optimistic about every single thing the AfD will bring up in the Bundestag being dismissed and ridiculed by pretty much every other party in there. They'll have a few people in there, will probably bleed out some of the more extremist ones over scandals and will have no say in any important matter.
That's what I hope at least.
 
As an American, from what I can gather this is the worst election for democracy and multiculturalism since Trump won. The AfD going from zero seats to 94 seems like a disaster.
 
Madness said:
Most in Canada are reporting about just how much the AfD got. Everyone expected Merkel to win, but for the first time since WWII, a far right party is entering German politics as a big force again.
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We see it everywhere again more neo nazi parties gaining steam on parlement even here in the netherlands, i'm ashamed that nobody learned from the past..
 
Petry's apparent disapproval of the far-right rhetoric and politics of the AfD is fairly comical, considering it was her and her hubby who advocated for shooting at refugees illegally crossing the German border.
 
chadskin said:
Petry's apparent disapproval of the far-right rhetoric and politics of the AfD is fairly comical, considering it was her and her hubby who advocated for shooting at refugees illegally crossing the German border.
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Lucke: We aren't Nazis. We have actual things to say.
Petry: Hold on a minute.

Petry: We aren't Nazis. We have actual things to say.
Gauland and Weidel: Hold on a minute.


Let's see who's next.
 
Nokterian said:
We see it everywhere again more neo nazi parties gaining steam on parlement even here in the netherlands, i'm ashamed that nobody learned from the past..
Click to expand...

It is because society in general deals with history in a rather shallow way. How we remember and commemorate/celebrate WW1 and WW2 in the UK is a case in point. The emphasis is on remembering and commemorating (important obviously) rather than learning (paramount importance). But I suppose this requires critical thinking and uncomfortable questions about power relations, etc.
 
A Human Becoming said:
As an American, from what I can gather this is the worst election for democracy and multiculturalism since Trump won. The AfD going from zero seats to 94 seems like a disaster.
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It really isn't. Germany was just the last country in Europe without a populist rightwing party in parliament. And we are a strong and stable (ha) democracy, they wont break us.
 
A Human Becoming said:
As an American, from what I can gather this is the worst election for democracy and multiculturalism since Trump won. The AfD going from zero seats to 94 seems like a disaster.
Click to expand...

Not really, we've had successful populist parties before, just not on the federal level. They have destroyed themselves rather quickly usually. The AFD may last longer but they were incredibly lucky to have the refugee crisis to work with this election. The percentages are embarassing, especially in Bavaria and parts of Eastern Germany, but don't worry about Germany - the country is stable, can take that and will fight back if things get too bad.
 
The CDU just don't get it. They constantly spin the results as a victory, which makes them look smugly exactly in the way, which the AFD always used against them. The SPD accepting the loss in comparison and ready to fight in the opposition, makes them look much more sympathetic and responsible.
But in some way both approaches are also great, since it recreate the classic German narrative, which many people missed through the "Große Koalition": the snobby CDU vs. the down-to-earth SPD.
 
Ladekabel said:
Read that Scheuer was talking about the Obergrenze being a top-priority again. Isn't that exactly what politicians shouldn't be doing?
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AfD being in the Bundestag is shameful but what's more worrying to me is what the parties actually in power will come up with to appeal to AfD-voters again (especially the CSU).
I find it hard to believe a Jamaica coalition can last the full 4 years on that basis when you have the Greens and a CSU that will very likely move more to the right in the same government.

Let's see if Mutti can keep everything under control this time.
 
Metal B said:
The SPD accepting the loss in comparison and ready to fight in the opposition, makes them look much more sympathetic and responsible.
Click to expand...

Quote from Schulz yesterday evening: "We lost, but you lost more. You are the true loser of this election Frau Merkel.
 
nelsonroyale said:
It is because society in general deals with history in a rather shallow way. How we remember and commemorate/celebrate WW1 and WW2 in the UK is a case in point. The emphasis is on remembering and commemorating (important obviously) rather than learning (paramount importance). But I suppose this requires critical thinking and uncomfortable questions about power relations, etc.
Click to expand...

What strikes the most is people like me saying don't be a dumbass and i provoke by saying it use your common sense, this is no good for the future for all of EU. Nazi's gaining more power yet again, this evil must be fought. People are dumber than ever before, i see it everywhere we scream and yet they do not listen, when it all happens it is to late that should never ever happen again.
 
Realyn said:
Quote from Schulz yesterday evening: "We lost, but you lost more. You are the true loser of this election Frau Merkel.
Click to expand...
Schulz biggest weakness was always him making a fool out of himself. Other parts of his party sound much more reasonable. And i can see him not becoming a major part of the party again.
 
cyba89 said:
AfD being in the Bundestag is shameful but what's more worrying to me is what the parties actually in power will come up with to appeal to AfD-voters again (especially the CSU).
I find it hard to believe a Jamaica coalition can last the full 4 years on that basis when you have the Greens and a CSU that will very likely move more to the right in the same government.
Click to expand...

I'm not an expert but if the CSU still thinks they can appeal to AfD with the exactly same topics how stubborn and ignorant can you be? They lost 11% in Bavaria with this tactic. Heck, I would even argue they might strengthen the AfD with this approach because the people see that voting for the AfD changes things.

Jamaica probably won't last the full 4 years, I'm with you. Probably too many cooks.
 
A bit sad, that I know 2 people who voted for AfD...

The party who is against abortions.
The party who wants the old view of women back "Men should work, women should be housewives."
The party who wants to go back to nuclear energy.
The party who said to shoot refugee kids at the border for shock value.
The party who thinks homosexuals should not be allowed to marry and get the same benefits as heterosexual couples.

And I am 99% sure a lot of people who voted for AfD did it because of refugees and didnt even know most of the stuff I just posted...
 
Metal B said:
Schulz biggest weakness was always him making a fool out of himself. Other parts of his party sound much more reasonable. And i can see him not becoming a major part of the party again.
Click to expand...

So ... "Your quote doesn't mean anything because reasons?". Sure, that's one way to argue.
 
Metal B said:
Schulz biggest weakness was always him making a fool out of himself. Other parts of his party sound much more reasonable. And i can see him not becoming a major part of the party again.
Click to expand...

He is right tho.

Merkel gonna have with Jamaica a shitty coalition, SPD as opposition and the AFD sitting in the Bundestag.

Cant be worse for Merkel.
 
Salty Rice said:
He is right tho.

Merkel gonna have with Jamaica a shitty coalition, SPD as opposition and the AFD sitting in the Bundestag.

Cant be worse for Merkel.
Click to expand...

Schulz is doing damage control, and he already is positioning for the next votes (be it 4 years or earlier) he knows SPD wont be back on top if the keep working with The Union, so he clearly states them as opposition to strenghten them after what just happened.
 
Metal B said:
Schulz biggest weakness was always him making a fool out of himself. Other parts of his party sound much more reasonable. And i can see him not becoming a major part of the party again.
Click to expand...

What other parts? Having Nahles, Maas, Oppermann, or 'Team Gina-Lisa' Schwesig in leading positions sounds like a recipe for further disaster.

Maybe Scholz and Barley will be seen more. Or Weil and Sieling (probably not, nobody even knows them).
 
Dagobert Duck said:
Schulz is doing damage control, and he already is positioning for the next votes (be it 4 years or earlier) he knows SPD wont be back on top if the keep working with The Union, so he clearly states them as opposition to strenghten them after what just happened.
Click to expand...

So the opposition acts like a opposition. Its the smart thing to do.

A strong opposition that is not the AFD is what we need right now.
 
DieNgamers said:
Afd being strong in the countryside doesn't come as a surprise, sadly. At least in my state the left (Die Linke) are second strongest behind CDU. This country is torn.
Click to expand...
Iunno. The country doesn't really feel torn, we just have way too much Politikverdrossenheit. Just look at the huge amount of people that willingly threw their vote at the AfD despite complaining that they're not doing enough to distance themselves from right wing issues. Roughly 60% of AfD voters didn't vote for them due to their policies, but more or less to spite the other parties. More than half of AfD voters are complaining that they basically just voted NPD 2.0 into power.

We will always have a right wing undercurrent. It's just that Merkel and her willingness (and flexibility) to work on more left wing issues like Ehe für Alle or immigration has scared them out of their traditional hiding places in the CDU/CSU. Now they have rejoined their brethren from the shattered remains of the NPD under the umbrella of AfD. Add the above idiots, and you have... well, more than 10% of all voters.

We were never torn. It's just that the cockroaches are no longer fearing the daylight.
Bufbaf said:
Still wondering what'll happen if there's not gonna be a Jamaica coalition, honestly. It's probably gonna be passed anyway, but the options will go from AfD opposition to re-elections, which probably could turn out even worse.
Click to expand...
Eh, way I see it, there will absolutely be a Jamaica coalition.
Minority government won't happen, and a coalition with Linke and CDU/CSU in it will result in brawls during parliament. Those two options are out by default.

SPD needs to be the leader of the opposition, they cannot let the AfD have that post - and they also wouldn't survive another great coalition, so that's two strikes against that option.
Also, if they actually dare to backpedal now, they will lose all credibility.

So that really only leaves the blacks, the greens and the yellows. I'm sure the greens are not exactly euphoric about getting involved with Merkel, but they will take that chance, rather than risking an even worse outcome. Re-elections would probably kill Linke and Grüne because voters would try to scramble for perceived safe havens.
 
I agree. It is the smart thing to do for SPD. 4 more years of working together with CDU would make them completely irrelevant in the eyes of many voters and this would only strengthen the AfD as the only 'viable' way to vote against CDU. We really need a strong mid-left party, just as we need a liberal, green or a mid-right party like the CDU. You know, parties that are democratic but still have different values and ideas.
SPD and CDU also need new and fresh people amongst them. The Lindner effect was eye opening.
 
CTLance said:
Iunno. The country doesn't really feel torn, we just have way too much Politikverdrossenheit. Just look at the huge amount of people that willingly threw their vote at the AfD despite complaining that they're not doing enough to distance themselves from right wing issues. Roughly 60% of AfD voters didn't vote for them due to their policies, but more or less to spite the other parties. More than half of AfD voters are complaining that they basically just voted NPD 2.0 into power.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's that easy. 55 percent of their voters say that they don't distance themselves enough from right-extremist ideas. But that would mainly refer to what Bernd Höcke or Gauland say. They may still have voted for the AfD because it's the only party criticising the mass immigration, which isn't necessarily right-extremist but rather right-conservative (similar to what the CSU tried with its Obergrenze as an attempt to curb the potential of the AfD).

The AfD obviously doesn't offer any constructive ideas, which explains why so many voters say they didn't vote for them because they are convinced of their programme.
 
Shiggy said:
The AfD obviously doesn't offer any constructive ideas, which explains why so many voters say they didn't vote for them because they are convinced of their programme.
Click to expand...

Which is stupid, because the refugee stuff is just one part of their program and all the other 10 big points are ideas from 1950s...

What I personally dont get is how people argue about the cost of housing refugees (I think it was 30 billion €), while far more money is lost in our economy just by local offices spending money in useless projects. And even then, maybe 2 years ago I would have understood it. You saw refugees everywhere. In the last year I dont notice anything different in Cologne or Düsseldorf. I didnt see 40 men in front of the Düsseldorf central station just loitering. I dont "feel" we have a refugee crisis.
 
Chairmanchuck said:
Which is stupid, because the refugee stuff is just one part of their program and all the other 10 big points are ideas from 1950s...

What I personally dont get is how people argue about the cost of housing refugees (I think it was 30 billion €), while far more money is lost in our economy just by local offices spending money in useless projects. And even then, maybe 2 years ago I would have understood it. You saw refugees everywhere. In the last year I dont notice anything different in Cologne or Düsseldorf. I didnt see 40 men in front of the Düsseldorf central station just loitering. I dont "feel" we have a refugee crisis.
Click to expand...

Contrary to you these people don't see refugees but feel like there is a refugee crisis.
 
Voting for someone in spite is so terrifyingly stupid

"I don't want you in the parliament but I will vote you into the parliament"
 
So Petry walks out of the AfD in the first example of party infighting. The Long Knives are out folks.

Oersted said:
Voting for someone in spite is so terrifyingly stupid

"I don't want you in the parliament but I will vote you into the parliament"
Click to expand...

We had the same dumb shit with Trump and Brexit. People are stupid.
 
Ladekabel said:
Contrary to you these people don't see refugees but feel like there is a refugee crisis.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I am just saying I could understand it 2 years ago when you could see refugees with your own eyes loitering everywhere. At least here in NRW, you cant see them.

Whether there is a refugee crisis or not, I dont know. 30 billion € compared to the around 100-110 billion € just "vanishing" by local governments/offices seem far higher and a worse problem for the German economy.
Same with German companies paying their taxes in tax-havens like Malta, Luxembourg, Cayman etc.
 
Chairmanchuck said:
A bit sad, that I know 2 people who voted for AfD...

The party who is against abortions.
The party who wants the old view of women back "Men should work, women should be housewives."
The party who wants to go back to nuclear energy.
The party who said to shoot refugee kids at the border for shock value.
The party who thinks homosexuals should not be allowed to marry and get the same benefits as heterosexual couples.

And I am 99% sure a lot of people who voted for AfD did it because of refugees and didnt even know most of the stuff I just posted...
Click to expand...
The bolded parts are strong in the CDU/CSU as well though. The one in italics is one that is always looming to be a majority position in CDU/CSU again.
 
Yoshi said:
The bolded parts are strong in the CDU/CSU as well though. The one in italics is one that is always looming to be a majority position in CDU/CSU again.
Click to expand...

The thing is why vote for the actual right-wing party and not for CDU/CSU?

I mean a lot of young people, who actually are against the "ideas" I posted from the AfD manifesto still voted for AfD even though I know for a fact (for the two people I know who voted for them) they dont share all the other AfD ideas.
 
I'm glad Petry is out, because then neo-fascism won't have a seemingly moderate face on it

Also, the history of Germany and the allergic aversion to far-right politics make this a historical moment in terms of racial resentment winning over historical trauma. Hatred of brown refugees is strong enough to legitimize what is considered to be a complete taboo in German politics.
 
Chairmanchuck said:
Which is stupid, because the refugee stuff is just one part of their program and all the other 10 big points are ideas from 1950s...

What I personally dont get is how people argue about the cost of housing refugees (I think it was 30 billion €), while far more money is lost in our economy just by local offices spending money in useless projects. And even then, maybe 2 years ago I would have understood it. You saw refugees everywhere. In the last year I dont notice anything different in Cologne or Düsseldorf. I didnt see 40 men in front of the Düsseldorf central station just loitering. I dont "feel" we have a refugee crisis.
Click to expand...


That's the problem with feelings. Everybody has different ones and they are all over the place. Feelings are subjective, a deciding factor in our modern political society, even more important then facts and often enough even in contradiction to facts. Look at the US, trump was able to win because he was able to provoke certain feelings in people and not by telling the truth or having good, rational ideas and solutions. We have a refugee crisis in Germany, you just have to know where to look. AfD made sure nobody forgot and played with feelings, but the media and all debates eating at least 50% of their time repeating the same arguments over and over again certainly didn't help either.

In other words: Feelings are deceptive and not a good foundation to judge or evaluate something.
 
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