Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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ricardo_sousa11 said:
Testing everyone is the only viable option, the few countries that have dealt with this better did it. Its the only way to find the clusters and isolate them.

IF you dont test everyone then there will be other waves of contagion, and we still dont know if you stay immune after getting it once.
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Try forcibly testing 320 million people. Just try, especially in the US with the Constitution. You'd have to declare martial law and risk a civil war, because there will be a lot of people who will reject the government coming into their house and shoving a swab up their nasal cavity.
 
ManaByte said:
Try forcibly testing 320 million people. Just try, especially in the US with the Constitution. You'd have to declare martial law and risk a civil war, because there will be a lot of people who will reject the government coming into their house and shoving a swab up their nasal cavity.
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How do you deal with other viral diseases that rely on everyone getting a shot then?
 
Saruhashi said:
The problem with that is you can be tested on Monday and catch it on Tuesday. So you need to be tested again.

There will be new waves on contagion anyway because you aren't gonna be able to test everyone on a daily basis.

More than likely they will set out some criteria.

People who show symptoms will get tested.
If they have it then they will be isolated.
If X number of people have it then that region will be locked down ASAP.
If it's then Y number the whole country might get locked down again, and so on.

IF this idea of herd immunity kicks in then over time you will see outbreaks becoming more and more isolated.
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You need to test everyone while on quarantine, similar to what South Korea is doing with their phone booth testing, you need to get tested, get the results asap and remain in quarantine.

Its irrelevant if you have symptoms at this stage, you can be assyntomatic and be a superspreader, thats the real issue, we are only testing people who have symptoms, but its estimated that 6.7% of people do not show any symptoms, and 6% inconclusive, so 12% of people dont have symptoms and can spread thousands.

People showing symptoms are the easiest to avoid, they are easily identified through the coughing and sweating.

Ideally you'd lockdown for a week or two (depending on the size of the country), the authorities would do the testing at your house/region, and then you'd know exacly who is infected, you do this again a week after to make sure if new people got infected, and this would mitigate the spread and show you exacly where its spreading
 
We're going to open the floodgates soon.

www.cnn.com

Trump predicts ‘this is going to be bad’ but vows to reopen America | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump appears to have made his choice in the awful dilemma posed by the coronavirus pandemic – whether to destroy the nation’s economic foundation in order to save lives.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

czyoqqeowx811.jpg
 
crowbrow said:
How do you deal with other viral diseases that rely on everyone getting a shot then?
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Are you talking about vaccines or the flu shot? Because there's a big difference.

Not everyone gets a flu shot, because it doesn't 100% protect you. They never know what flu strain is going to go around each season, so they make a guess with what shot to give people. That's why people who get a flu shot every season can still come down with the flu.
 
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iconmaster said:
We're going to open the floodgates soon.

www.cnn.com

Trump predicts ‘this is going to be bad’ but vows to reopen America | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump appears to have made his choice in the awful dilemma posed by the coronavirus pandemic – whether to destroy the nation’s economic foundation in order to save lives.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

This is what every other country will be doing in a few months. We can't sustain the lockdown length needed to contain a virus like this. It's inevitable.

At some point the world will have to make the tough decision to say "Tough luck for the vulnerable. Life needs to continue for the other 99%"
 
ManaByte said:
Try forcibly testing 320 million people. Just try, especially in the US with the Constitution. You'd have to declare martial law and risk a civil war, because there will be a lot of people who will reject the government coming into their house and shoving a swab up their nasal cavity.
Click to expand...


Thats the issue with the US constitution, its still cowboy land, it made americans arrogant and thinking they are above everyone else, this will be a reality check.

This is the only option that has worked so far, Japan, South Korea and Germany are doing it and are fairing very very well. The US in the other hand has the steep curve upwards that no other country has, they arent flatening that curve one bit, its a free fall.

Now the question is, whats more important, your lives or your belief in an old constitution? Is your personal freedom more important than the lives of your neighbour?

Where I live we went into lockdown even before the 1st case appreared, we are currently sitting at 12 cases, all imported, so far there is 0% spread, those cases are all isolated and in treatment, no one has died. Our president didnt have to do a mandatory quarantine, he went live and basically said "This isnt a joke, you dont go to dinners and parties, if we do this now, we'll be okay in a few weeks, if not we will take years to get over it" and everyone stayed home, supermarkets are limited to 100 people at the time, pharmacies to 5 people, the rest waits on a line 10'f apart from each other.
 
Briefing here in Norway.

Norway will continue its "soft" lockdown of society at least until Easter is over.

Maybe we will see a resurrection in business after that, who knows?
 
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Saruhashi said:
20% of IDENTIFIED cases need medical assistance. 4% of IDENTIFIED cases are critical.

There are likely several magnitudes more people who were infected than the identified numbers.

Which means we don't actually know how many people have been infected.
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Don't stop at "several magnitudes", or at least go for 4-6.
Use "entire US", it will give you wonderful numbers.
350 million people, only 48 thousand infected, only 1040 in serious condition, only 588 deaths.

Completely toothless virus. in fact, likely the least deadly flu humanity ever seen!


Saruhashi said:
Governments stalled on completely locking everything down because that was the right thing to do.
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Governments LOCKED IT DOWN ANYWAY, just later.

There is only one no-lockdown case with positive outcome: South Korea. People wearing masks, avoiding groups, very intensive testing and chasing/isolating detected cases.

Saruhashi said:
I never said "It's just like H1N1" because I do not believe that is true.
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Yeah, you merely said "people will die anyway" and pushed "we don't know it's deadly" in numerous ways.
FUCK OFF WITH THAT SHIT.
 
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An interesting chat with someone working in A&E with people who have COVID-19 symptoms.

It's very promising and not as alarmist as the media stuff.

 
Our parents and grandparents where called halfway across the world to fight in a world war.

Your being asked to Netflix and chill.

Be a hero and put on your sweatpants and take a load off.
 
llien said:
Don't stop at "several magnitudes", or at least go for 4-6.
Use "entire US", it will give you wonderful numbers.
350 million people, only 48 thousand infected, only 1040 in serious condition, only 588 deaths.

Completely toothless virus. in fact, likely the least deadly flu humanity ever seen!



Governments LOCKED IT DOWN ANYWAY, just later.

There is only one no-lockdown case with positive outcome: South Korea. People wearing masks, avoiding groups, very intensive testing and chasing/isolating detected cases.


Yeah, you merely said "people will die anyway" and pushed "we don't know it's deadly" in numerous ways.
FUCK OFF WITH THAT SHIT.
Click to expand...


I cant even.

First of all, the 48 thousand infected are the confirmed infected, the rest only god knows. Secondly saying this is the least deadly flu?! And they locked it down "just later"?!? Thats exacly the problem, lets pretend your house is on fire, the Fire department gets there after an hour and says "well, we did put out the fire, just later", do you think its the same thing as if you put out the fire in the beginning?
 
I haven't read this whole thread :messenger_grinning_smiling: so sorry if this has been asked/mentioned before.

What worries me about this confinement that many countries have right now is, what if it fails to "flatten the curve"? What if after two or three weeks the number of cases keep growing? At some point people will go out to start making a living again and then the number of cases might skyrocket. How contagious this thing is coupled with the fact that it takes 3-4 days for the symptoms to appear makes it extremely difficult to fight.
 
clem84 said:
I haven't read this whole thread :messenger_grinning_smiling: so sorry if this has been asked/mentioned before.

What worries me about this confinement that many countries have right now is, what if it fails to "flatten the curve"? What if after two or three weeks the number of cases keep growing? At some point people will go out to start making a living again and then the number of cases might skyrocket. How contagious this thing is coupled with the fact that it takes 3-4 days for the symptoms to appear makes it extremely difficult to fight.
Click to expand...

Or you can keep people locked up where they can't make an income and they starve to death.
 
ricardo_sousa11 said:
Testing everyone is the only viable option, the few countries that have dealt with this better did it. Its the only way to find the clusters and isolate them.

IF you dont test everyone then there will be other waves of contagion, and we still dont know if you stay immune after getting it once.
Click to expand...

Which country has tested everyone ?

SK has only done 330k tests. Population is over 50 million there.

Also these countries that tested also added along that tracking. You need to add GPS tracking along with your testing so you can get everyone and every place that infected came in contact with.

Lets see when the west can install GPS on everyones phone or QR sacanners everywhere you go.

How many test have US done by now ? They must have surpassed SKs 330K by now if you consider 96% of tests are negative.
 
South Korea is the only example of success without massive lockdowns.
What they did differently was massive testing and tracking back every single case.

They have managed to stabilize at around 8k.

Most wear masks when in public, as far as I understand.

And actually, so is Japan.
 
How many days will US support on this situatuon? You close the country or let the virus flow...
iconmaster said:
We're going to open the floodgates soon.

www.cnn.com

Trump predicts ‘this is going to be bad’ but vows to reopen America | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump appears to have made his choice in the awful dilemma posed by the coronavirus pandemic – whether to destroy the nation’s economic foundation in order to save lives.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

czyoqqeowx811.jpg
Click to expand...

This has sense....you can not stop the economic model US has.
 
It's kind of blowing my mind today to realise just how many people out there were apparently ignoring this thing. It seems to have suddenly become real for them just now, today, with almost the whole country now closed for business and the streets kind of empty like in a disaster movie. And here I was thinking that folk would start to take the virus seriously when Tom Hanks caught it.

nush said:
Business opportunity right there mate. For most of an MOT you don't need to go to a garage (I am not a mechanic) so scoop up that business for yourself and make home calls. Car on the drive, pass the keys through the letterbox. markup on a call out charge, parts and labor and you've got a sound customer base built up.
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lol. I like your thinking, but thankfully my days of lying under cars on the driveway are long gone.
 
eot said:
Five months ago we didn't know about this specific virus, but people have warned about the possibility of it a long time ago:



Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection - PMC

Before the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003, only 12 other animal or human coronaviruses were known. The discovery of this virus was soon followed by the discovery of the civet and bat SARS-CoV and ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


www.nature.com

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence - Nature Medicine

Ralph Baric, Vineet Menachery and colleagues characterize a SARS-like coronavirus circulating in Chinese horseshoe bats to determine its potential to infect primary human airway epithelial cells, cause disease in mice and respond to available therapeutics.
www.nature.com www.nature.com



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So 5 months ago the wider world didn't know about Covid-19 but yet we were suppose to be able to prepare for it? You see the problem with this don't you?

Until there is an outbreak there is no way to prepare for it because how do you prepare for something that you have never seen before?

Everything you base your prep on could be thrown out of the window just based on what type of infection it is alone and that is even before you consider the different type of infections there are, Covid is a viral infection but what a bacterial infection or a fungal infection which are all completely different and could be transmitted in different ways and have a different affect on us.

The only preparedness a Country can take is quarantine protocols that either hit it with a hammer and lock people up in their homes so it runs out of hosts, like what is happening now is most affected Countries or let it burn through the populace until it mutates enough to become asymptomatic like the spanish flu, Ebola and black death did.

A vaccine is 12-24 months away at the earliest so I'm not holding my breath for that anytime soon.

It also doesn't help that the first few months of the outbreak were lost due to the CCP actions. They weren't honest with the international community if we had been told about this sooner Countries could have taken more appropriate measures and maybe just maybe stopped this dead in its tracks. Instead we were fed a false narrative that it was just a bad flu bro and people aren't dying and we are certain there is no human to human transmission.

Basically you can't prepare for stuff like this because there are way too many variables involved. The only thing a Government can prep is its response and quarantine protocols.
 
Alebrije said:
How many days will US support on this situatuon? You close the country or let the virus flow...


This has sense....you can not stop the economic model US has.
Click to expand...
Netherlands also thought this in its first week, but this virus is a different beast, stuff will be in lock down. We should be glad that some work can be done because of the internet.
 
Watching Cuomo right now. Two quick observations:

1. Trump is going to have to enable the DPA. Cuomo is bringing receipts basically implied that Trump is going to get people killed.
2. As we saw with Rudy after 9/11 people love a hero that emerges from crisis. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cuomo become a national player once this all blows over. Hopefully he isn't a fucking scumbag like Rudy.
 
GamingKaiju said:
So 5 months ago the wider world didn't know about Covid-19 but yet we were suppose to be able to prepare for it? You see the problem with this don't you?

Until there is an outbreak there is no way to prepare for it because how do you prepare for something that you have never seen before?

Everything you base your prep on could be thrown out of the window just based on what type of infection it is alone and that is even before you consider the different type of infections there are, Covid is a viral infection but what a bacterial infection or a fungal infection which are all completely different and could be transmitted in different ways and have a different affect on us.

The only preparedness a Country can take is quarantine protocols that either hit it with a hammer and lock people up in their homes so it runs out of hosts, like what is happening now is most affected Countries or let it burn through the populace until it mutates enough to become asymptomatic like the spanish flu, Ebola and black death did.

A vaccine is 12-24 months away at the earliest so I'm not holding my breath for that anytime soon.

It also doesn't help that the first few months of the outbreak were lost due to the CCP actions. They weren't honest with the international community if we had been told about this sooner Countries could have taken more appropriate measures and maybe just maybe stopped this dead in its tracks. Instead we were fed a false narrative that it was just a bad flu bro and people aren't dying and we are certain there is no human to human transmission.

Basically you can't prepare for stuff like this because there are way too many variables involved. The only thing a Government can prep is its response and quarantine protocols.
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And enough icus and don't cut health care which most did , hey look we are invincible. Germany has a lot icus btw.
 
autoduelist said:
It's all connected, though. The person who had been working at the Ventilator company wasn't doing it for nothing. They did it so they could afford food, home, and completely unnecessary widgets. The widget factory guy spent his excess cash on thots. Thot girl spent her money on makeup. The lady hawking makeup at the mall spent money on shoes.

That is to say, shit you consider completely frivolous and trash is what gets someone else up at 6:30 to get ready to work. I'm not prepared to define 'essential goods' for everyone, and quite honestly, a world in which all goods are essential sounds like the setup for a dystopian novel. We are on a gaming forum fetishing plastic energy and time suckers, after all.

And while a shitload of that is crass consumerism, and we can shit on that all day, if the shoes stop coming the thot goes broke and the ventilator dude doesn't get his completely unnecessary widget thar he really wants. And that other guy loses his temper because he didn't get to kill space aliens last night.

I can bitch about consumerism all day. I spent years practically off the grid, and while i have too much junk now you don't have to sell me on the value of minimalism. But with going on 10 billion people in the world, we can't just let our economy go to shit. The US is fortunate due to land/resources that we can be self sufficient in a pinch, but that doesn't mean we throw our economy overboard.

I also don't think it's true people aren't buying stuff. We are. Tp, oreo cookies, extra food, water... downloading movies and games and books. I don't think 99% of people are learning we don't need shit.... rather, i think most people are absolutely aching to go out to the mall and splurge in consumerism withdrawal.

You say: "You're asking people to sacrifice so that consumerism gets back to where it was before, but the harder the disease hits, the harder it will be to sell any of this trash."

Nah, i'm saying people want to get back to work. They want to be social. They want to buy shit. Just look at the stupid spring break stuff. Not everyone is scared, or hiding. I have a family member who proudly helps keep trucking going to a major food retailer. I know a couple medics proud to be at work. I know a bartender who is itching to get back to serving people. People miss 1 month ago.

What i'm saying is that i don't think people are learning 'to do without', but rather, 'holy hell do i miss how good we had it' and the way to keep that is to not destroy the economy in the process of preventing pandemic. There is balance to be found.

Like i said, i spent many, many years buying very, very little. I don't particularly like defending consumerism. But i recognize it is what ultimarely feeds billions, and it works. I'd rather consumerism than mass food riots and a breakdown of society.
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Those who are not at risk do want to get back, but imagine if healthy/young people start dying like they are in Italy... I don't think many people are willing to risk their lives if they can avoid it... people are not disposable NPCs, man. If people that shouldn't be dying start to die the general population will stop working and maybe start stealing and rioting depending on what happens next.

Best thing the government can do now is tank the disease, pump money into the necessary markets so fundamental business stay functioning and then, after it's gone, tank the economic disruption and deal with the consequences... there's no winning here, we are already at a loss.

If young people start to die things will get much worse.
 
They say the flu since october has infected 38 to 53 million people. Sent 300K to 700k to the hospital and killed 23 to 59k.

We must have more than 350K but how does this stack up to the flu infection rate? If this is much more contagious than the flu the real number should be closer to the 10 millions.

Catch 22 is if there are many millions infected then there are many millions recoverd and immune.

I hope everyone saying that there are many more infected they are right.
 
Smiles and Cries said:
oh you believe Japan has been testing okay I see
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They've been testing people who show up with serious symptoms only. I do believe their death numbers, which are far more important. In that regard, I don't see how anyone can say they are doing poorly.
 
gamerMan said:
You don't need draconian measures. You just have to start mass testing immediately to stunt exponential growth from happening in the first place. Imagine if you slowed a rocket at takeoff. How high would it go? If we shutdown the border to China and began testing immediately we wouldn't have so many people transmitting it. The number of people transmitting it is your initial velocity, which is a function of people coming in at the border and people inside who have it.

It's was better to spend money on testing everybody in the start than giving $1000 handouts and socialized bailouts to large industries that participated in stock buybacks.

Also, we aren't even comparing population sizes. We are normalizing everything and looking at the growth curve which doesn't depend on population size. It depends on rate of growth. Once you see the curve begin to bell down, you have slowed the rate of growth and can restart your economy.
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I disagree. Testing doesn't do much without contact tracing and intense follow up tracking (enforcing quarantine). These are the two draconian parts that were honestly never going to work in the US. Seriously, can you imagine the entire country going out to get tested under their own volition, only to be interrogated about who they've come in contact with recently, and then be forced to have their movements tracked for a specific period of time if they came up positive? I just don't see that flying in America... at all, logistic challenges of getting tests to people in a country of this size aside.
 
sinnergy said:
Netherlands also thought this in its first week, but this virus is a different beast, stuff will be in lock down. We should be glad that some work can be done because of the internet.
Click to expand...

Pay attention to Mexico....could be the best model , we will see in 1 month. No lockdown no total freedom....
 
Zefah said:
They've been testing people who show up with serious symptoms only. I do believe their death numbers, which are far more important. In that regard, I don't see how anyone can say they are doing poorly.
Click to expand...

You might not be able to see it, but I have been saying they have been doing poorly. Still I could be way off and wrong about this and I hope I am and this is all Japan will really have as cases or deaths. It would be a good case study for hermit at heart societies that also packs people in trains like sardines to see if a virus like this spreads and spikes or not.

If I look at New York alone if you just look at the serious numbers alone then yeah maybe that is all of Japan, when you don't test mild, it does not look as striking. I'm too Japan focus because that is a place I want to visit after my vaccine :)
 
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