rykomatsu
Member
Model of a growth curve from 15-Dec please, not a gut feeling. Then we'll talk.
Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
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Model of a growth curve from 15-Dec please, not a gut feeling. Then we'll talk.
If you point me any evidence that the Virus was there on the 15. of December in the US i'll give it a try. Since you can't you better keep quiet and stop with that nonsense.
Pretty ironic that your "15. of December" based on literally no evidence at all is no gut feeling . But factual data with plenty of evidences is called "Gut feeling". I loled.
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ricardo_sousa11
Member
I've been saying this ever since the start, IMO the virus has been around since the last flu season, we just didnt know or cared to look for it.
I live in one of the most touristy locations in the world, we win best island location every year, yet somehow we didnt get community spread...which is strange.
We have one of the biggest reveillon parties of the world, millions come here every year, its strange that there wasnt any spread here considering december is the month where more tourists come.
There was 0 deaths, 81 total cases (most toursits) and now we have 38 active cases, today we opened up pretty much everything, with some limitations, but still. This makes me believe, considering how massive our tourism is, that the decease was already here, but most people are symptomatic due to exercise/healthy eating, which is a massive massive thing in our lifestyle.
Alx
Member
There must be a reason why it was unnoticed at the time, but suddenly filled emergency rooms in March. Even if it were misdiagnosed as "regular flu", someone would have noticed if the hospitals had been saturated in December. (especially since Christmas time is the "best" moment to contaminate eldery people all around the country).
Maybe the 2019 cases were not as contagious, or not as lethal (which funnily enough is what China claimed at the time too
)
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diffusionx
Gold Member
There must be a reason why it was unnoticed at the time, but suddenly filled emergency rooms in March. Even if it were misdiagnosed as "regular flu", someone would have noticed if the hospitals had been saturated in December. (especially since Christmas time is the "best" moment to contaminate eldery people all around the country).
Maybe the 2019 cases were not as contagious, or not as lethal (which funnily enough is what China claimed at the time too
It's possible the virus mutated, but it's also possible that more people went to the hospital after the media started covering it. Essentially a "run on the bank" scenario - people who otherwise would have stayed home and sweated it out decided to go to the hospital.
When I had COVID 19-like symptoms in February I made a doctors appointment but they didn't even want me in the office, they diagnosed and gave me tamiflu over the phone. Whereas if I had those symptoms layer maybe they tell me to go to the hospital.
lock2k
Banned
There must be a reason why it was unnoticed at the time, but suddenly filled emergency rooms in March. Even if it were misdiagnosed as "regular flu", someone would have noticed if the hospitals had been saturated in December. (especially since Christmas time is the "best" moment to contaminate eldery people all around the country).
Maybe the 2019 cases were not as contagious, or not as lethal (which funnily enough is what China claimed at the time too
Man... this is interesting.
In December, precisely, I had a really strong disease and doctors just couldn't fix it.
I went to the hospital more than 5 times in December and on December 24, after midnight (it was already Christmas) I went to a hospital because i couldn't breathe and I felt something really strong in my lungs. They said it was sinusitis. I remember I had a really hard time breathing and I had fevers everyday. I got treated with more than 1 antibiotic and several anti-inflammatory meds. I only felt better on January 5. But I stayed feeling like that throughout December. It was the worst month of my life. I wonder if it had something to do with that or just a really grim coincidence.
JORMBO
Darkness no more
I had a really bad flu in February. My brother and his girlfriend both did too. She got the flu test at the time, but it came back negative which seemed strange at the time. I also think it's been around longer and that a lot of people just stayed home instead of going to the hospital. Hospitals started getting more people once it became a big story.
DunDunDunpachi
Banned
February is the most common peak month for yearly flu casesThere must be a reason why it was unnoticed at the time, but suddenly filled emergency rooms in March. Even if it were misdiagnosed as "regular flu", someone would have noticed if the hospitals had been saturated in December. (especially since Christmas time is the "best" moment to contaminate eldery people all around the country).
Maybe the 2019 cases were not as contagious, or not as lethal (which funnily enough is what China claimed at the time too
I remember our pediatrician insisting in September and October that it was "going to be a severe season for the flu" .
It stands to reason that even if Wuhan flu was spread internationally as early as November (when Chinese reports started leaking) or December (when China admitted it) that it would also spike toward the end of the season when immune systems were at their weakest. If we went through a "bad flu season" at the same time, perhaps folks would be weakened to other respiratory diseases. Or maybe some flu cases were mistaken for coronavirus. Or vice versa.
Very early in the thread it was a "conspiracy" to suggest that coronavirus was out earlier than the "official" first cases. However, after a few weeks passed, more stories came out, like the Austrian ski party that may have spread it to multiple countries a month before the "official" first case. It became evident that coronavirus had reached numerous countries weeks/months prior to the first confirmed cases. How could that be for such a "contagious" and "deadly" virus? It didn't add up so people rejected the wrinkle that our first cases were in December and January, not late January, February, and March like currently supposed.
From the early weeks, doctors stuck (and still stick) to an average ~80% asymptomatic/mild reaction to the coronavirus. If this was circulating worldwide in November, December, and January, perhaps what the world experienced in February, March, and April was the peak of the coronavirus season, similar to how the flu season lasts for several months in total but spikes in certain months. The outbreak may have been the final vicious snap of the virus at the end of the season instead of a new "novel" outbreak that needed to be contained.
We Black Friday'd our medical systems.
Pair those arguments with the faulty death-rate assumptions (since we don't have a valid estimate of total cases, how can we possibly estimate death rate?) and it's hard to take the "official" story all that seriously.
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German study where they tested 900 People in the worst affected city in germany, published their results today.
- They had 900 participants from 400 households
- 15% were infected
- Mortality rate is at 0.37 (IFR not CFR)
- 20% showed no symptoms at all
- Infection rate was about the same through all demographics(even kids)
- They used antibody tests with 99% accuracy
This gives us an good indication how high the mortality rate is. It's a bit lower then what leading expert expected (0,4-0,7).
- They had 900 participants from 400 households
- 15% were infected
- Mortality rate is at 0.37 (IFR not CFR)
- 20% showed no symptoms at all
- Infection rate was about the same through all demographics(even kids)
- They used antibody tests with 99% accuracy
This gives us an good indication how high the mortality rate is. It's a bit lower then what leading expert expected (0,4-0,7).
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Alx
Member
Yeah but it's not only about people being more anxious because of the media, but the number of ICU beds being occupied. I don't think people connected to ventilators were the consequence of a "run on the bank" behaviour, so why did it go apparently from 0 to 7000 in Feb-March (French numbers), but nothing was detected earlier ? Those ICU beds were not all occupied in January (we would have known, since the hospital staff was on strike at the time, but didn't mention such situation)
diffusionx
Gold Member
I don't know exactly what you are describing, but maybe because they weren't looking for it? Nobody was getting tested for COVID in January. Maybe the course of treatment for people describing these symptoms were different in January. I have no idea but as time goes on hopefully we will get a fuller understanding of the course.
Based on everything I have read, I don't think this thing really dug deep, at least in the US, until late January-February.
Rock And Roll
Member
I got another chance to speak to my parents today.
Unlike my father, my mom reported she actually feels pain in her left lung and in her feet. Although they both experience dizziness when they cough. I already mentioned it's been two weeks but the symptoms haven't gone away. Although she said she's gradually healing.
When she mentioned the pain in her feet, it actually reminded me of a story I was reading lately that said Covid-19 victims had unusual lesions in their feet. Although this is said to inflict children and they're way older than that.
Toronto, Canada and Global Breaking News – CP24
Most recent News News business news stories and video from CP24www.cp24.com
I got this myself as a 30 year old. I was completely asymptomatic too, wouldn't have known anything was up if it weren't for the news articles.
What he's saying is, that there where a sudden Spike in ICU beds required from February/March on. Even if people didn't get tested for Covid they still would have the symptoms eg. needing vents. People don't only go to the hospital to get tested for Covid. Many of them need ICU care and Vents. This has nothing to do with being anxious.
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TheContact
Member
For a lot of people this is essentially a paid vacation for them. Some are being paid more to stay at home than they were while working. For example, a friend of mine is required to work from home and makes $500 a week ($12.50/hr (before taxes)). Others who were furloughed or laid off who were previously making the same amount, are now making $800 a week (before taxes) or $21.25/hr (because of the bonus $600/week on top of the $250 of their normal unemployment). I know this isn't the case for everyone, but damn that must be frustrating to the people who have to work who are making less than the people who are getting paid to stay home and play video games and watch netflix all day.
To be fair, a vast majority of people have been underpaid for too long so this does help them to catch up on bills and the like, but I can see how people who are working and getting paid less than those unemployed must be really pissed.
To be fair, a vast majority of people have been underpaid for too long so this does help them to catch up on bills and the like, but I can see how people who are working and getting paid less than those unemployed must be really pissed.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Couple of interesting things came through in today's Spectator newsletter.
www.spectator.co.uk
Looking at different versions of the virus and suggesting that one, while not more deadly, does spread more, hence overwhelming Italy etc.
www.medrxiv.org
An interesting take on herd immunity suggesting the required number is actually much lower than the presumed 60% as susceptibility to the virus is not evenly distributed, and thus the virus could run out of susceptible individuals far sooner than 60%.
Have we been fighting a very different disease to China?
One of the great mysteries of coronavirus is how the epidemic has become much more severe in Europe and North America than in the Far East. A disease which appeared to be on the wane in China, South Korea and elsewhere in mid-February suddenly erupted with a vengeance in Europe in March, with...
www.spectator.co.uk
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold
As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the rate at which new cases occur to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are frailer, and...
www.medrxiv.org
HellforLeather
Member
There must be a reason why it was unnoticed at the time, but suddenly filled emergency rooms in March. Even if it were misdiagnosed as "regular flu", someone would have noticed if the hospitals had been saturated in December. (especially since Christmas time is the "best" moment to contaminate eldery people all around the country).
Maybe the 2019 cases were not as contagious, or not as lethal (which funnily enough is what China claimed at the time too
Early stages of the spread, they wouldnt be nearly as numerous and would probably just be chocked up as pneumonia. The further it spreads, the bigger the chances are it infects people that have severe reactions to it.
cryptoadam
Banned
Interesting from Dr. Campbell video the other day. He said 5K people were infected in meat packing plants, but only 20 died. Thats a .4% death rate. Now I don't know if the just did PCR test or antibody tests so not sure on the asymptomatic count o people and its possible maybe some more people will die from those meat packing plants in the upcoming weeks.
But gotta figure most people working at this plant are probably under 70, even under 65. I also wouldn't be surprised if those 20 had underlying conditions, were overweight and most of them were probably some of the oldest people who worked at these plants.
But gotta figure most people working at this plant are probably under 70, even under 65. I also wouldn't be surprised if those 20 had underlying conditions, were overweight and most of them were probably some of the oldest people who worked at these plants.
Sakura
Member
Eh, the base numbers are too small in my opinion.
15% of a tiny community with 7 deaths. Yeah that gives you 0.36% or so, but the problem is, just a couple more people die and it jumps from 0.36 to 0.46, and so on.
You have to consider that there were still active cases at the time of the study. Some of the people in their study were actually new active infections, and not people who had already had it and gotten over it.
To put it a different way, when I am playing my shitty phone gacha games, the drop rate for a SSR character might be 3%.
But that doesn't mean every time I do 100 pulls I am going to get 3 SSR. Sometimes I might get 1 or 2, or even 0. If you were to look at the drop rate from just 100 pulls you might think it is only 1% when it in reality is 3.
It starts to even out when you do a larger number.
I remember seeing studies on the Diamond Princess before everyone had either recovered or died, predicting lower case fatality rates than what we actually ended up with.
Now, I ain't saying the true IFR is like 2% or something, but that you shouldn't write off that 0.4 to 0.7.
Oh i'm with you. It's actually worse since the city has a rather Young population and the majority of the cases were young people getting Infected at a party.
But even this ( very optimistic ) Study Shows, that this is far deadlier than the flu.
cryptoadam
Banned
Do they have an age break down of the deaths?
rykomatsu
Member
Un patient atteint du coronavirus fin décembre à Bondy?
Le chef de la réanimation de l’hôpital de Bondy affirme avoir accueilli un patient atteint de Covid-19, fin décembre.
www.lefigaro.fr
New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew
Coronavirus might have been in California as early as December. The timing had dire consequences
www.latimes.com
Now, do my bidding.
Chittagong
Gold Member
New figures from UK - 229 is the number of the day
The purpose was to flatten the curve, but I think they may have accidentally the whole curve
The purpose was to flatten the curve, but I think they may have accidentally the whole curve
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cryptoadam
Banned
New figures from UK - 229 is the number of the day
The purpose was to flatten the curve, but I think they may have accidentally the whole curve
Is this still only in hospitals or are they also including deaths in old age homes too?
Un patient atteint du coronavirus fin décembre à Bondy?
Le chef de la réanimation de l’hôpital de Bondy affirme avoir accueilli un patient atteint de Covid-19, fin décembre.
New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew
Coronavirus might have been in California as early as December. The timing had dire consequences
Now, do my bidding.
So no evidence at all. Just presumptions like i said.
Sadly not from what i've seen. They have an age breakdown of all tested people and their comorbidities
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darkestdame
Banned
Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (Published 2020)
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.
- Projections from an internal report show that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month.
- As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.
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Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
I posted the wrong link earlier, but:
New signs suggest coronavirus was in California far earlier than anyone knew
Coronavirus might have been in California as early as December. The timing had dire consequences
www.latimes.com
Coronavirus began spreading in California as early as December, official says
A silent spreader?
www.foxnews.com
Doctors believe coronavirus was present in California as early as December - Washington Examiner
Data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the coronavirus has been present in the United States as early as December.Coronavirus deaths in the San Francisco Bay Area in February and March are leading scientists to believe that the virus was present in California...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Coronavirus has been in California since DECEMBER, studies suggest
In late February, the CDC investigated after a California patient came down with coronavirus even though they did not travel to any hotspots nor did they contact with someone who did.
But most importantly this one:
New Coronavirus Timeline: California Had 2 Deaths Weeks Earlier in Bay Area
The two newly reported deaths in Santa Clara County show that the virus was spreading in California well before officials realized it and that outbreaks were underway in at least two parts of the country at about the same time.
www.nbcbayarea.com
For a person who did not travel outside of the country to have died in early February, it's extremely likely that there was community spread at least since December.
rykomatsu
Member
French case:
This puts the first French case at mid-December.
US scenario is based on available data from the CDC and establishes a hypothesis of December.
The difference between the Smith hypothesis and you, is that Smith's hypothesis is based on empirical data that both Stanford and CDC have collected.
(But you'd know both of this had you read or translated both of the websites)
The fact that you're saying that "there's no way Spain or Italy wouldn't have detected double the cases" also shows your lack of knowledge of how exponential growth manifests itself.
But hey, what do I know - it seems everyone that doesn't understand basic mathematics, growth models, or statistics such as yourself, is now an expert on COVID-19
Put up or shut up.
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lock2k
Banned
I just read this shitty sensationalist article from Vice and puked a little: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...ck-to-normal-office-life-for-a-long-long-time
It's like some people are rooting for society becoming totally shitty.
It's like some people are rooting for society becoming totally shitty.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
I dunno, man. The death of open office plans doesn't sound like the worst thing ever.
Lanrutcon
Member
Um. What? How is that sensationalist ? Those are literally the exact guidelines my company instituted this week. That's a pretty grounded article filled with common sense.
Maybe you spend your days licking your coworkers or having elevator parties, but the rest of us aren't exactly weeping over the WFH changes.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
Old age homes are now included.
cryptoadam
Banned
Wait a minute I can't lick my co workers anus's anymore? What about when we would drop our pants and rub our cocks all over the elevator buttons, can we still do that in this new normal?
Well the one thing I gurantee you that wont change is some asshole will piss all over the seat and leave their giant shit in the toilet while stuffing it with TP. CV or no CV people still gonna be dirty pieces of shit when it comes to bathroom etiquette.
Well the one thing I gurantee you that wont change is some asshole will piss all over the seat and leave their giant shit in the toilet while stuffing it with TP. CV or no CV people still gonna be dirty pieces of shit when it comes to bathroom etiquette.
No, Smiths hypothesis comes from the fact that he "presumes" Covid wasn't detected earlier, since it has similar symptoms to the flu:
There is no evidence what so ever, he's looking at data and making assumptions. You know what evidence is ?
Ah reading comprehension problems. I'm saying, that a disease that doubled the deaths in a span of 2-3 weeks in major cities in Italy and spain, couldn't possibly remain undetected for several months.
to further explain my point:
The difference is, i'm basing my arguments on factual data, not assumptions. But go on.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
In my place someone used poo to write on the cubicle walls. Like a fucking poo crayon.
lock2k
Banned
This whole long long time and new normal rhetoric are making me sick and tired.
I know those are the guidelines. But enough of doom and gloom. This is what I'm saying.
It's like they are celebrating this shit. I'm tired of it. I'm pissed off and I could kill someone
cryptoadam
Banned
lock2k
Banned
I'm craving the office.
My life was 100% better there. Working alongside my hyperactive child and having to clean the house every day is making me go bonkers.
Lanrutcon
Member
This whole long long time and new normal rhetoric are making me sick and tired.
I know those are the guidelines. But enough of doom and gloom. This is what I'm saying.
It's like they are celebrating this shit. I'm tired of it. I'm pissed off and I could kill someone
Ok, sure. Anyone celebrating the emergence of the virus and the havoc its caused is an asshole. I'll admit, been enjoying the WFH, but at the same time: concerned over my folks.
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hariseldon
Unconfirmed Member
I'm loving working from home with my decent coffee machine and my lovely cats. Plus I hate people (partly because of the previously mentioned poo crayon).
lock2k
Banned
I agree with you about the people. I mean, people can fuck right off, I don't miss them. I just miss having structure.
I do love my coffee machine as well, it's way better than what we had on the office, and I don't miss my commute at all. It's just that my daughter doesn't respect my work and study time and the house is always a mess around here. It's making me crave going outside. But as an introvert I like the"being alone" side of it.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Sounds like your real problem is that school is cancelled.
lock2k
Banned
Two problems.
School being cancelled is definitely a problem. The second is big brother mode on my company's side.
I used to work like 95% unsupervised and nowadays I have meetings all the time and stupid/pointless requests on off hours (which are like virtual leashes) just because they can do it.
McHuj
Member
But the have nothing to do with the reopening. Deaths probably lag infection by 3-4 weeks at least. You have to get infected, start showing symptoms, progress to a bad state and finally die. Anyone dying now has gotten sick during the lockdowns.
rykomatsu
Member
Funny, you ignore the French case that does have evidence. Regardless, thanks for putting your ignorance of exponential growth on display.
- Let's split the middle and say doubling of death is 2.5 weeks (your numbers, not mine)
- Let's also qualify several months as 12 weeks (3mo x 4wk/mo, fair right?)
- I think you also said 300-ish deaths per day from flu?
Starting with patient 0's death as the start, and 2.5 weeks as 17.5 days:
- Wk2.5: 2 deaths (0.05 deaths/day)
- Wk5.0: 4 deaths (0.11 deaths/day)
- Wk7.5: 8 deaths (0.46 deaths/day)
- ...
- Wk27.5: 1024 (58.5 deaths/day)
- Wk30: 2048 deaths (117 deaths/day)
So, this, my friend, is why COVID could go undetected for several months (or even greater than half a year).
Regardless, this isn't the point of my original question. All models have generally been based around day of first identified case more or less. And these models are all in the Feb/March timeframe. This is what I stated:
Models incorporate assumptions and new information - that's why they're refined over time. They don't need to be "hard" evidence based - how many assumptions you make dictate how accurate the models are, but doesn't preclude anyone from actually creating a model. You saying "show me evidence" is either a) merely a deflection on your part in that you don't have a clue on how to model this (in which case, your feedback is pretty worthless) or b) you do know how to model, but the model doesn't reflect what your narrative is (in which case, your feedback is even more worthless...since the longer this pandemic actually has been ongoing, the lower the risk of death becomes).
Now that there is a confirmed case in France of Dec 27th, and verbal evidence from the person having symptoms back until mid-Dec, there is merit to model this based on France data from Mid-Dec (or end of Dec) to now. What you will find is either that the infectivity rate is really really low, or the fatality rate is really low (since, it's been floating around France for 5.5 months now)
Now that you have your confirmed day 1 case in France and data from France, what excuse will you use this time? Can't wait!
Note that I am genuinely interested in what the pandemic's risk profile would be if it's been lingering around 2-3 months longer that what current models start at since this would provide a clearer picture on where in the pandemic we are and in general, how much at risk we are at as individuals.
Chittagong
Gold Member
This really is the key question, because the earlier start changes the severity substantially, as does the real rate of infection in general population.
Our initial models were understandably based on influenza math. We started seeing deaths piling and said - "hey, if deaths are racking up already now, when this thing is new and not that many people have had the chance to catch the virus, it must be real bad".
It would be very different to say "hey, if deaths are racking up after this thing has been gathering momentum for three months, and a lot of people have had the virus, this is serious but not the end of the world."
Smiles and Cries
Member
Dr. Campbell changing his mind on China quick
bRacing
Banned
Incorrect. The new projections are reflective of the change in social distancing that's going on.
Raven117
Member
But will it crash the healthcare system? That was the original deal.
The government cannot guarantee everyone's safety all the time (why we allow risky things to happen all the time, like driving).
So long as we are under the healthcare overload line (which we are quite a bit under in most states), and we are taking extra precautions for at risk folks (and social distancing the rest), yeah, it's time some places open up. (NYC has a bigger problem)
You can't sanitize the universe. There will always be risk if you are living.
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