darkestdame
Banned
The projections are showing increased deaths way into June.
Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
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bRacing
Banned
And it did crash the healthcare system in larger cities, and the only reason it didn't everywhere else is due to social distancing. Remove that, and we'll see what happens, but as their new projections illustrate, the death rate is about to rise, right alongside the infection rate. And no, it's nothing like allowing people to drive a fucking car. Stop with the stupid analogies. Jesus.
darkestdame
Banned
cryptoadam
Banned
I guess I will give the CDC some leeway here but how is that even possible? Seriously sounds like they are predicting that everyone over 60 in the USA will get this virus.
If during the huge ramp up of this only 2K people were dying how do you get to 3K-15K deaths a day?
And these 2K deaths a day are not because of social distancing, these were people that got infected at the beginning of the outbreak when mitigation was really just starting and the big growth boom was going on.
So CDC is predicting close to half a million deaths a month starting in June?
If during the huge ramp up of this only 2K people were dying how do you get to 3K-15K deaths a day?
And these 2K deaths a day are not because of social distancing, these were people that got infected at the beginning of the outbreak when mitigation was really just starting and the big growth boom was going on.
So CDC is predicting close to half a million deaths a month starting in June?
Funny, you ignore the French case that does have evidence. Regardless, thanks for putting your ignorance of exponential growth on display.
So, let's give the benefit of the doubt and say....increase in daily deaths by 25% for health department to realize something is wrong, so....approximately 75 additional deaths per day is your detection threshold (could be a little less, but it doesn't have significant impact, maybe by half a month)
- Let's split the middle and say doubling of death is 2.5 weeks (your numbers, not mine)
- Let's also qualify several months as 12 weeks (3mo x 4wk/mo, fair right?)
- I think you also said 300-ish deaths per day from flu?
Starting with patient 0's death as the start, and 2.5 weeks as 17.5 days:
I'm going to treat this like a step function just to make the math easier - but you wouldn't really reach the alarm threshold until you reach between week 27.5 (6.9mo) and week 30 (7.5mo)
- Wk2.5: 2 deaths (0.05 deaths/day)
- Wk5.0: 4 deaths (0.11 deaths/day)
- Wk7.5: 8 deaths (0.46 deaths/day)
- ...
- Wk27.5: 1024 (58.5 deaths/day)
- Wk30: 2048 deaths (117 deaths/day)
So, this, my friend, is why COVID could go undetected for several months (or even greater than half a year).
Regardless, this isn't the point of my original question. All models have generally been based around day of first identified case more or less. And these models are all in the Feb/March timeframe. This is what I stated:
Models incorporate assumptions and new information - that's why they're refined over time. They don't need to be "hard" evidence based - how many assumptions you make dictate how accurate the models are, but doesn't preclude anyone from actually creating a model. You saying "show me evidence" is either a) merely a deflection on your part in that you don't have a clue on how to model this (in which case, your feedback is pretty worthless) or b) you do know how to model, but the model doesn't reflect what your narrative is (in which case, your feedback is even more worthless...since the longer this pandemic actually has been ongoing, the lower the risk of death becomes).
Now that there is a confirmed case in France of Dec 27th, and verbal evidence from the person having symptoms back until mid-Dec, there is merit to model this based on France data from Mid-Dec (or end of Dec) to now. What you will find is either that the infectivity rate is really really low, or the fatality rate is really low (since, it's been floating around France for 5.5 months now)
Now that you have your confirmed day 1 case in France and data from France, what excuse will you use this time? Can't wait!
Note that I am genuinely interested in what the pandemic's risk profile would be if it's been lingering around 2-3 months longer that what current models start at since this would provide a clearer picture on where in the pandemic we are and in general, how much at risk we are at as individuals.
The french case is no evidance for the US, that's why i ignored it.
Doubling of Death per days in Italy, Spain, US France etc. was 2.5 every DAYS, not weeks. Which makes your math pointless.
Give you a hint:
Day 1: 2
Day4: 4
Day7: 8
Day 9: 16
Day 12: 32
Day 14: 64
Day 17: 138
So in 17 days, we've reached 140 deaths per day. And you want to tell me that could go undetected?
Day 20: 276
Day 22: 552
Day 25: 1104
Day 27: 2208
2000 Deaths per Day after a month. Yeah, noone would have detected that disease.
To top that off, we have had plenty of Studies, an isolated case ( Diamond Princess) that gives us a pretty good picture about mortality rates. Heinsberg Study from today ( That is widely criticised because it's too optimistic ) points at a IFR of 0,4%.
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Raven117
Member
It's a risk like any other. Yes. Just like allowing the public to drive (or any other risk you can think of). You have just accepted the risk.
NYC was the only one that got close (and they did a great job preparing once they got it in gear). The rest of the country fell well below "overloading" the healthcare system. We do have a better handle on things now. PPE, ventilators, all of that. Hell, we were furloughing healthcare workers across the country because people weren't going to the hospital.
I didn't say just throw the switch and rock and roll. What I did say is that many states are in a position to begin the opening up process. Texas for instance is well positioned to begin opening when you look at covid hospitalizations and deaths. One does have to keep monitoring hospitalizations and then increase testing more and more.
At risk people will need special protection. Elderly, underlying conditions, etc.
You are buying into fear.
Am I the only one finding it kind of odd that a 61 year exercise freak like Madonna has antibodies to the virus.
Could regular burst of exercise trigger the immune system in such a way that the virus simply cannot get enough hold on that person during the incubation period?
Does exercise even do something to the immune system? Does it act differently?
Could regular burst of exercise trigger the immune system in such a way that the virus simply cannot get enough hold on that person during the incubation period?
Does exercise even do something to the immune system? Does it act differently?
lock2k
Banned
Lack of exercise does make the immune system weaker.
I'm also guessing it could be due to genetics. A combination of genetics and exercising.
cryptoadam
Banned
wait what are you talking about? Did I miss something? Madonna got the antibodies without being infected or are you saying she got infected and didn't get sick?
Also probably has nothing to do with exercise and more to do with all the penis she took back in the day.
Newsom Nonads caved:
www.sfgate.com
Gavin Newsom announces California will enter Stage 2 of reopening Friday
California will move into Stage 2 of the state's reopening plan by the end of this week,...
www.sfgate.com
Alebrije
Member
The death toll will rise a lot , the social distancing relaxing these weeks around US will send a lot of people to hospitals.
People just do not got the message....or do not care....or are stupid.
bRacing
Banned
Actually, I'm buying into reality. Meat packing plants stayed open. How'd that work out for their employees?
Stupid is the answer.
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Raven117
Member
Some of them unfortunately got sick. The companies have redoubled efforts to try and slow the spread there. Even if they close, that's fair. It's safer. (So long as there is food.... which there is).
Targeted closures make more sense than a wholesale closure across the country at this point. (It looked different a month ago).
You will never be safe from everything.
bRacing
Banned
And you'll be more unsafe by officials enacting moronic plans with no real mitigation plans.
Raven117
Member
What are you talking about? Most governors have social distancing requirements in place and things will open in stages with limited capacity. In many states, this makes sense to do keeping a close eye on hospitalizations and at risk people.
Yes, the world is unsafe because covid 19 is in it. Sucks that It happened. But it did.
I am a little more unsafe with the more loose restrictions. I am following social distancing guidelines.... I haven't visited with my 81 year old father in his house in months.
This risk in Texas is acceptable to get many hardworking Americans back to work.
Joe T.
Member
Do you think all mayors and governors are doing a poor job?
bRacing
Banned
Of course not. Some are obviously Trump toadies, but most are just doing the best they can within a system stacked against them. It's not their fault the Idiot In Chief is withholding federal aid for testing.
Joe T.
Member
Who do you think is doing a good job for their city/state?
rykomatsu
Member
I'm using France data since you're enamored with only modeling if there's evidence
Yes - I'm telling you that the initial stages of a pandemic can go undetected even if the death rate doubles in a short period of time.
There's still a fundamental problem with your math if you look at the timelines we have been working with up until yesterday.
- Day 1 was not 2 deaths.
- Day 1 was 0 deaths (24-Jan)
- Day 2 was 0 deaths
- Day 3 was 0 deaths
- ...
- Day 23 was 1 death (15-Feb, first recorded)
- Day 51 was date that daily death exceeds 25% threshold (13-Mar)
The new information is that there was a COVID-19 detection on 27-Dec and it probably goes to say that this case in France had any mitigation at all. As such, it would be considered a reasonable estimate to start at 27-Dec as this patient being Patient 0, and t=1d. The new timeline becomes (calendar maths might be off by a day):
- Day 1: 27-Dec (1st patient is known to be carrying the virus)
- Day 29: 24-Jan (day of previous first detection)
- Day 52: 15-Feb (day of first recorded death)
- Day 84: 13-Mar (day the daily death exceeds a 25% average threshold for flu deaths)
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cryptoadam
Banned
Darkmakaimura
Can You Imagine What SureAI Is Going To Do With Garfield?
Hospice care brought over 40 rolls of toilet paper, a couple rolls of paper towels and some paper plates and facial tissue.
Also brought some microwave soup but a lot of that is 6 months expired.
Also brought some microwave soup but a lot of that is 6 months expired.
Malakhov
Banned
It is and by quite a margin as the infected gets older. I dont get why people are still debating this, it's insanely dangerous for 60+ years olds.
Stouffers
Banned
The plan was always to reopen when the hospitals could handle the rise. We were never in lockdown until the risk of transmission/death went away.
All Hail C-Webb
Hailing from the Chill-Web
If prices are cheap enough, people might do this just to get away from their families. The fact that they'll probably be stuck at sea, and forced to quarantine for 2 weeks will only make it harder to resist.
longdi
Banned
A patient diagnosed with pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said.
Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.
The patient, a man in his 50s who has since fully recovered, said he has no idea where he caught the virus as he hadn't been to any infected areas.
This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.
Until now, the country's first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed on 24 January.
Of those, two had been to Wuhan in China - where the outbreak was first detected - and the third was a close family member.
How was the new case found?
Dr Cohen, head of emergency medicine at Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, told French broadcaster BFMTV that he recently went over the files of patients admitted with flu-like symptoms in December and January.
In total he tested the swabs of 14 patients, he said.
"We re-tested the nasal swabs which were conducted at the time in relation to another diagnosis, to try and find traces of coronavirus," he said.
"Out of 14 patients, one tested positive. We tested it two more times to make sure there was no mistake. And twice, it came back positive."
Dr Cohen said he had alerted the National Health Agency (ARS), and was urging other virologists to re-test swabs in their hospitals for Covid-19.
A full report is due later this week, and will be published by the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, he added.
SOURCE : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554
Dr Yves Cohen told French media a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19.
The patient, a man in his 50s who has since fully recovered, said he has no idea where he caught the virus as he hadn't been to any infected areas.
This news means the virus may have arrived in France almost a month earlier than previously thought.
Until now, the country's first three cases of coronavirus were confirmed on 24 January.
Of those, two had been to Wuhan in China - where the outbreak was first detected - and the third was a close family member.
How was the new case found?
Dr Cohen, head of emergency medicine at Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, told French broadcaster BFMTV that he recently went over the files of patients admitted with flu-like symptoms in December and January.
In total he tested the swabs of 14 patients, he said.
"We re-tested the nasal swabs which were conducted at the time in relation to another diagnosis, to try and find traces of coronavirus," he said.
"Out of 14 patients, one tested positive. We tested it two more times to make sure there was no mistake. And twice, it came back positive."
Dr Cohen said he had alerted the National Health Agency (ARS), and was urging other virologists to re-test swabs in their hospitals for Covid-19.
A full report is due later this week, and will be published by the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, he added.
SOURCE : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554
All Hail C-Webb
Hailing from the Chill-Web
We hear about these fake COVID deaths all the time, but this is the first one I've seen.
I know that this is probably his way of trying to grieve, but if your son committed suicide while you were on lockdown with him, you didn't sense a thing, and he was receiving no treatment, you need to be accountable for your own failures as a father.
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So a bit of sobering news from the care centre where I work.
We were the first long term care home in my region to have an outbreak. Right away 27 staff members and roughly 60 residents tested positive.
Today - roughly two months later - many of the staff took an antibody test. Here's the sobering part. Virtually nobody was asymptomatic. The staff members who got sick all tested positive for antibodies, whereas the rest of us tested negative.
There were a lot of unhappy people at work today. Many were hoping they were asymptomatic, while many others, recalling their recent illnesses, had hoped they had already suffered from Covid19.
Obviously, this is just anecdotal - but for all this talk of a huge percentage of the populace being 'asymptomatic' it was a little disheartening not to see that materialize.
I mean, not one person was asymptomatic. Not one.
We were the first long term care home in my region to have an outbreak. Right away 27 staff members and roughly 60 residents tested positive.
Today - roughly two months later - many of the staff took an antibody test. Here's the sobering part. Virtually nobody was asymptomatic. The staff members who got sick all tested positive for antibodies, whereas the rest of us tested negative.
There were a lot of unhappy people at work today. Many were hoping they were asymptomatic, while many others, recalling their recent illnesses, had hoped they had already suffered from Covid19.
Obviously, this is just anecdotal - but for all this talk of a huge percentage of the populace being 'asymptomatic' it was a little disheartening not to see that materialize.
I mean, not one person was asymptomatic. Not one.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Sad stuff. My kids are still really young, but I'm terrified for what the social landscape is going to be like when they get into middle school/start becoming teenagers. Seems like so many are needlessly turning to suicide.
Seems crazy that none of you caught it at all.
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What you just said. That was the comment of the day.
How did so many of us avoid getting it? There were at least 6 people who were in the front line trenches for 12 hours a day, seven days a week.... without any PPE... and they didn't get sick and they don't have antibodies.
We were VERY surprised. Most of us were certain these people either had it already or were asymptomatic. Honestly, I'm a bit depressed by the results.
Nymphae
Banned
I've been hearing about a study that was done during the spanish flu pandemic, where the US department of health was attempting to demonstrate contagion by forcefully trying to infect 100 healthy non-infected individuals with the flu. They tried everything you can think of, sneezing on the people, coughing directly into their mouths, literally injecting fluids from infected people into non infected people, and apparently they were unable to demonstrate contagiousness in even a single person. This was apparently again attempted with horses, with the exact same results.
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Silent Viper
Banned
New Anti Trump Ad
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
It's been really interesting seeing his tone about the WHO change dramatically from his February stuff to now. He's a very rational man and I think he's pretty great.
Tesseract
Banned
Smiles and Cries
Member
he tries very hard to keep politics out of his videos so the seemed to try hard to say nice things about China, he did not agree with the WHO's slowness back then but he did hold back calling them out back then. Now he is just pissed off. Now that he knows how this all went down.
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rykomatsu
Member
Sounds like he's placing the onus directly on China and WHO, also pissed off about the lack of accountability in their failures
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
Even putting China aside, his rant about the WHO was 100% spot on.
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Smiles and Cries
Member
Dr. Campbell did this second monday video as the regular update
still talking about Vitamin D, this dude wants me to stockpile that stuff in the future I swear I'm conviced lol
still talking about Vitamin D, this dude wants me to stockpile that stuff in the future I swear I'm conviced lol
Tesseract
Banned
bRacing
Banned
No, the plan was to re-open when we had a universal testing plan in place and competent contact tracing. We have neither yet.
No lies detected. The portion with Trump congratulating himself and asking to be acknowledged for all the work he's done is so ridiculously pathetic.
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Raven117
Member
Yup. As soon as it was shown that our healthcare system wasn't going to collapse, boom.... it was about "saving lives" completely changing the original deal about protecting the healthcare system which if failed, would have been many more deaths.
It was never about no risk. It's about acceptable risk.
Tesseract
Banned
Collz69
Member
Probably not, depending on where you live (how much sunlight you are exposed to)
I take 2000 IU at the minute and double up to 4000 IU in the winter months, I'm in the UK
Joe T.
Member
When you say "we" which state are you talking about? Capacity is still ramping up, but on the national level the US blew past everyone else in testing a while ago so what you're really saying is that you think the entire world should remain locked down. Something to consider:
Researchers eye value of universal COVID-19 testing - Western News
Universal testing for COVID-19 may not be the best way to keep people safe, despite growing calls for ramped up screening. In fact, testing everyone could cause unintended harm and crash the system, according to new Western-led research.
news.westernu.ca
What's your idea of competent contact tracing?
I think you can't Model like this. In "normal" instances it could be possible but just a visit by that dude in a packed Stadium/Arena could mean he'd infect hundres of people in one day alone.
Germany had 0 cases on February 24, then bum carnival and the numbers skyroccketed. Combine that with a big Football game in the city of one of the Hotspots and you get what i call a biological bomb.
Also all of this would not explain, why the ICU capacity in Italy was suddenly beyond a limit and they had to Triage patients. A longer and slower infection that you indicate by saying the Virus was there months before, would mean they would have been prepared even better. Also Holidays like Christmas and NYE where the whole family is together would mean a lot of grandparents would have been in contact with the virus by now.
Numbers in Italy "indicate", that thats not the case. Let's take a look at Bergamo. One of the worst hit Cities in Italy. If The Virus was there since December, we would have seen a little Spike by January. If not in January, than at least in February.
But Data shows us this:
January
February:
As you can see while the numbers were a bit higher in January, Numbers went down in february compared to the previous year.
Yeah well, then Lodi and CL happened and this is what we got one month later:
At the last Day the difference was 500! People a day. 137 People died on 31. of March 2019, 670! died on March 31. 2020.
This last Graph alone should let you reconsider your stance about this not being far deadlier than the flu.
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