Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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If this has been posted before my bad.


"It is a big deal, a difficult deal," a Brussels source said to be familiar with the transaction told the publication. "It needs an extensive investigation." The acquisition is being scrutinised by regulators around the world amid antitrust concerns during a time of increasing consolidation in the gaming industry. Earlier this month the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said its inquiry into the merger had officially been expanded to a second phase due to a number of concerns.

After the deal was rubber stamped in the US I figured the deal would go through. I even bought some ATVI stock lol
It will. It's just some virtu signaling from the agencies.
 
Maybe in other jurisdictions, but I still think here in the UK we will block it, seeing what happened with the nvidia arm deal
Remains to be seen. I agree that there is a decent chance it gets blocked though.

and how quickly the European Super League (for footy teams) Man Untied, Liverpool, Real, Barac, etc was stopped here in recent years.
That was 'stopped' a day or so after it was announced because the English clubs and Atletico Madrid pulled out due to strong fan protests. It wasn't stopped by any regulatory body or court.
 
The UK could go the same route that they did with Virgin and BT; spin off a department. I know Microsoft would be up for spinning the xbox division off in to a 'separate company. It gives them more flexibility to sell it off like they tried doing a few years before.

Plus, having Xbox separate from MS would allow them to more easily out Gamepass on more platforms.
I think our regulators will be looking at the sustainable revenue from companies like Activision and PlayStation against the revenue the market currently brings into the UK coffers (just from profitmaking industry companies) and then considers if MSFT's disruptive acquisition is going to help or hinder that status quo or help or hinder the growth potential with other players in the future.

Xbox failing to be self-funding and completely opaque in its revenue returns/losses for over two decades works against MSFT desire to acquire Activision IMO, and signals that the deal is just more profits for MSFT with complete collateral damage to the UK games market and depletion in money flowing back in taxes.

Given the way our economy in the UK is very large for a smallish population nation, and the games industry is a substantial part of the economy - and a driver for higher education for people wanting to work in the industry - I think the deal will always look to regulators at best like it serves MSFT and damages the market, and is against the UK economy short-term and long-term interests.
 
The deal will go through.

What impact it has on the wider industry will be interesting to see. I know some folk are happy to make this another childish sony/Microsoft slap-fight because they have the imagination and IQ of a donkey with severe concussion, but this is bigger than either of those companies.

It is no coincidence that Stadia shut down so close to this deal being complete, or that SA Is looking to spend 13 billion on a gaming company.

Once this deal gets the greenlight, and it will, it will signal to other massive (mostly american) tech companies that the best way to get into the industry is to buy your way in and start a digital storefront/subscription service, the rights to which you can sell to the big 3.

Why would Google continue with stadia if they can have the same service on already established hardware? In the same way that valve and steam have evolved, these big tech companies can start as software first, then worry about the hardware.

What we saw a few years back with Netflix, hulu, hbo, amazon, Disney et al - a splintering of content spread across multiple streaming apps, we are about to see the same happen with the gaming industry.
Reasoning Google exit from gaming business on Microsoft's purchase of ActiBlizz is disingenuous at best.

Stadia was doomed regardless of this deal. No publisher outside of Ubisoft supported that platform and Google was not willing to invest.

Spending money on content is and always will be only way to get into business. Sony spent billions while trying to suffocate competition when they got into gaming. Microsoft invested billions into developer support when making first Xbox. It's literally impossible to enter the market without billion investment regardless of ActiBlizz purchase.

But it would not surprise me if Google will try to screw Microsoft over with claims that they shut down stadia because of this purchase. Even if it is not true.
 
...

That was 'stopped' a day or so after it was announced because the English clubs and Atletico Madrid pulled out due to strong fan protests. It wasn't stopped by any regulatory body or court.
Which came after the "all means necessary will be perused" to stop it comment as government policy
 
btw, the ARM acquisition comparison as nothing in common with this. Also if Broadcom is going to acquire VMware without any issues then expect MS to close the deal by June 2023
Some weird takes on this thread, the arm deal was very different to this one. You had uniform complaints about this from the rest of big tech players.
 
The UK could go the same route that they did with Virgin and BT; spin off a department. I know Microsoft would be up for spinning the xbox division off in to a 'separate company. It gives them more flexibility to sell it off like they tried doing a few years before.

Plus, having Xbox separate from MS would allow them to more easily out Gamepass on more platforms.
Not sure that Satya wants to sell and his position relative to shareholders is stronger than Ballmer.

People are again missing the purpose of Gamepass, it's for the mtx revenue from the MS store.
 
Some weird takes on this thread, the arm deal was very different to this one. You had uniform complaints about this from the rest of big tech players.

Yes, but the point being made about the Arm deal is that it isn't unheard of for companies to voice opposition to an acquisition. And we already know that some countries are actively seeking out input from companies about this deal. It shouldn't be a shock to anyone that Sony is against it.
 
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Quick question for the sound minded.

What are the consequences for GP if the deal fails to go through? I'm not talking about the stock price or changes in leadership. Microsoft clearly see COD as essential to accelerate GP growth hence the 70 Billion. But having played their hand and run into "some" resistance there's now a possibility the deal is rejected by commissions outside of the US.

I believe if the deal goes through, Sony will be forced to make their own COD. Something which they're more than capable of.

If the deal fails to go through, GP growth will remain perpetually in the "growth phase" which it has been for the past 5 1/2 - 6 years.
 
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Yes, but the point being made about the Arm deal is that it isn't unheard of for companies to voice opposition to an acquisition. And we already know that some countries are actively seeking out input from companies about this deal. It shouldn't be a shock to anyone that Sony is against it.
Yeah that's not a shock and think Sony and Google are doing what they should be. I do think a part of Google is them being less than happy about Microsoft positions around the OAMA.
 
In other news that will strengthen Microsoft's case. Regulators are probably more likely to approve things for a Western acquisition in light of an increased push from China.


 
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Reading that feels delusional. If gamepass is able to corner the market - which is their(Microsoft's) sole objective - the amount of content will be drip fed - like it is with Netflix, Prime, Disney+, etc - and prices will rise to whatever they can get away with.

😂 nowhere near the same scale bud. You can look at a mix of Cable TV offerings and prices in the US and most games designed for subscription services / F2P like you see on mobile phones noawadays in that kind of scenario.

Can you explain to me why fictional fear of Microsoft increasing prices, even though they have clearly stated the won't,
is bad while Sony actually increasing the prices as the only manufacturer is not the same, saying Sony is better for increasing the prices and the fear of Microsoft increasing prices despite not living rent free in someone's head?

I probably miss something, which is why I would like you to explain it to me.

Because I got confused by what using cable TV and free to play games means it's OK Sony increases prices and it is bad Microsoft doesn't despite the fear for people never interested in the eco system.


are people in this thread dumb or just fanboys ?
Sony is shaking, Sony is scared, Sony is doomed....

if a game, that is releasing every goddamn year, and is, in top 10 best selling games every year for 15 years, taken from your platform, you people would
just shrug you shoulders and be like "whatever man" ??!!
there is no game like COD, and that's why this is a big deal. if you people can't understand that than....

I guess it's simply because of downplaying what effect it actually has, and because the same people don't care about multiplayer they can't see the difference between call of duty and battlefield.

I can't really see the difference between uncharted, the last of us or god of war besides the settings either,so I know their struggle and understand their confusion.

The last thing was not for taking a hit on Sony, but to explain I can't see difference in cinematic games, so I get why people without online interest can't either.
 
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But IMO the general gaming public that frequent gaming sites - that are knowledgeable about the potential fallout of this deal - are against this deal by majority.
Any numbers to back it up? Ideally with the main platform used by these users? I don't see a lot of moaning from pc, Xbox, switch, mobile gamers around this deal. Seems that only users of specific brand are agains this deal.
 
No. It should be a fair process. Same for all parties undergoing it (now and in the future). It shouldn't be made as difficult as possible just because MS is part of it.
MS and fair? Maybe you should ask the companies they've screwed over, over the years.
The big tech giants like MS, Apple, Google, Facebook etc should face super extra scrutiny in any purchases in future.
 
In other news that will strengthen Microsoft's case. Regulators are probably more likely to approve things for a Western acquisition in light of an increased push from China.



I wouldn't assume that's in MS favor though, even though I too prefer them as buyers of big publishers over for example Tencent. Chinas influence on the market is an entirely different subject matter and will probably be handled as such. Nothing is stopping the regulators from not approving of neither.
 
I wouldn't assume that's in MS favor though, even though I too prefer them as buyers of big publishers over for example Tencent. Chinas influence on the market is an entirely different subject matter and will probably be handled as such. Nothing is stopping the regulators from not approving of neither.

I agree with you in theory but in practice both Satya and Phil have name dropped Tencent when making public statements about it, I have to imagine there is a decent amount of Tencent scaremongering in their cases to the EU and other regulators as well .
 
Reasoning Google exit from gaming business on Microsoft's purchase of ActiBlizz is disingenuous at best.

Stadia was doomed regardless of this deal. No publisher outside of Ubisoft supported that platform and Google was not willing to invest.

Spending money on content is and always will be only way to get into business. Sony spent billions while trying to suffocate competition when they got into gaming. Microsoft invested billions into developer support when making first Xbox. It's literally impossible to enter the market without billion investment regardless of ActiBlizz purchase.

But it would not surprise me if Google will try to screw Microsoft over with claims that they shut down stadia because of this purchase. Even if it is not true.
Can you provide the receipts of Sony spending billions to suffocate competition when launching PS1? Outside of them paying for Tomb Raider not one of you has provided proof yet continue to be disingenuous.
 
Maybe if regulators don't look at the internet to factor public opinion in. But IMO the general gaming public that frequent gaming sites - that are knowledgeable about the potential fallout of this deal - are against this deal by majority. So, if regulators conclude that we are the market - just as much as the businesses, because we are the paying consumer most effected by the deal - MSFT's rebuttal to those points won't carry enough weight.
I would link the switch success thread but can't find it.

Tldr regulators aren't checking neogaf/resetera/iconera/twitter for general sentiments.
 
In other news that will strengthen Microsoft's case. Regulators are probably more likely to approve things for a Western acquisition in light of an increased push from China.




Tencent has been investing and acquiring western studios for some time now. Suddenly a Reuters report citing anonymous sources is going to impact MS and AB? That's quite a reach.
 
I'll take a moment to salute the best thread on Gaf, the comedy put forth in here, truly priceless.

Probably 5 or 6 months or more to go still.

I'll say if there is one thing we should be absolutely sure of it's that these regulatory agencies could not care less about what video game nerds on the internet have to say about the deal. Likewise the entire idea that the enthusiast crowd speaks for the majority is also not even in the realm of reality. :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
Tencent has been investing and acquiring western studios for some time now. Suddenly a Reuters report citing anonymous sources is going to impact MS and AB? That's quite a reach.

No, not suddenly. That's what I said in the other post, both phil and Satya have been name dropping Tencent multiple times. Tencent's rise to prominence and publisher dominance is probably in more than a few points in their cases to the EU and other regulators. That's what I think at least.
 
I'm not angry, I'm simply stating facts. During the PS4 generation, Sony migrated virtually every first party studio to making single player third person cinematic action / adventure games. With the exception of GT, they don't make anything else. They left third parties to carry their multiplayer platform entirely, yet, still are quite happy to take the same 30%.

Microsoft makes lots of multiplayer games, including multiplayer only titles, promoting their own platform and giving exclusive incentives to use Xbox Live. Microsoft didn't leave it to Call of Duty to build Xbox Live, they used Halo, Forza, and Gears of War. That work is why COD exploded first on the Xbox 360, and why Sony stepped in to buy up marketing and DLC for most of the PS4 generation.

You take COD off of PSN, and that platform is going to absolutely dive. That's why Sony is crying: COD makes PSN huge, and gives Sony its free money.
I don't get this post. MS are all too happy to get the same 30%. MS also did heavily rely on CoD to build xbox live. That's why MS had exclusivity deals with Activision for 5 years during that time. CoD was exploding and it exploded on 360 more than it did PS3 because they had those type of deals.
 
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No, not suddenly. That's what I said in the other post, both phil and Satya have been name dropping Tencent multiple times. Tencent's rise to prominence and publisher dominance is probably in more than a few points in their cases to the EU and other regulators. That's what I think at least.

And so nothing has changed. That's my point.
 
I think our regulators will be looking at the sustainable revenue from companies like Activision and PlayStation against the revenue the market currently brings into the UK coffers (just from profitmaking industry companies) and then considers if MSFT's disruptive acquisition is going to help or hinder that status quo or help or hinder the growth potential with other players in the future.

Xbox failing to be self-funding and completely opaque in its revenue returns/losses for over two decades works against MSFT desire to acquire Activision IMO, and signals that the deal is just more profits for MSFT with complete collateral damage to the UK games market and depletion in money flowing back in taxes.

I think it's more than just profits. While most people focus on COD (because that's the distraction they want you looking at) the Acti purchase also includes King, the mobile company. They own 1000's of games and have massive reach. It gives Xbox chance to add games to mobile and bring mobile games to gamepass. Think of the whale % on mobile games vs console games. If Microsoft can bring some of those whales over to gamepass xbox's strategy will be complete as hardcore and casual gamers are now old markets and mobile gaming is the new market microsoft are focusing on.

Just to flesh that out a little bit, remember during the 360 days Microsoft changed focus from hardcore gamers onto casual gamers, who were a bigger market at that the time. Those 'casual' gamers are now the equivalent of the 360-era hardcore gamers, in that the casual market is now dwarfed by the mobile market
Given the way our economy in the UK is very large for a smallish population nation, and the games industry is a substantial part of the economy - and a driver for higher education for people wanting to work in the industry - I think the deal will always look to regulators at best like it serves MSFT and damages the market, and is against the UK economy short-term and long-term interests.

MS will have a hard time in the UK and Eu getting this deal passed. I can't see they've helped themselves by talking about recording party chat for naughty words, especially with Acti AND Blizz coming out and saying the same. It would mean a potential massive chunk of the gaming industry running into privacy issues in the EU and UK

Reasoning Google exit from gaming business on Microsoft's purchase of ActiBlizz is disingenuous at best.

Stadia was doomed regardless of this deal. No publisher outside of Ubisoft supported that platform and Google was not willing to invest.

Spending money on content is and always will be only way to get into business. Sony spent billions while trying to suffocate competition when they got into gaming. Microsoft invested billions into developer support when making first Xbox. It's literally impossible to enter the market without billion investment regardless of ActiBlizz purchase.

But it would not surprise me if Google will try to screw Microsoft over with claims that they shut down stadia because of this purchase. Even if it is not true.

You're looking at it back to front. Stadia was dead day 1. I believe the reason it has been killed now and not 6 months ago or in 6 months' time, is because Google have seen the ROI possibilities with going 100% software.

Comparing this deal and the new route of entering the market with software instead of hardware is disingenuous. Sony entered the hardware market in 91 with the Phillips CDI (the idea they tried again with the PS3), after the debacle with Nintendo. Sony aggressively got into the console industry because Nintendo's decision to go cartridge, and Sega dropping out (who were going CD in the future) caused Sony to potentially lose a lot of revenue from not being able to sell their CD format. They repeated this idea with PS2, which at the time was the cheapest DVD player on the market by at least 50%. Most people in the UK bought a PS2 as a dvd player 1st, again which was the format Sony was pushing. Then they did it again with PS3 and blu ray...


Not sure that Satya wants to sell and his position relative to shareholders is stronger than Ballmer.

People are again missing the purpose of Gamepass, it's for the mtx revenue from the MS store.

He wouldn't be selling his position. Xbox would still be part of Microsoft and be funded by them, but it would be an independent department. I don't 100% know the details but in the UK the main phoneline provider is BT (british telecom) and they used to own almost all ISP and internet service. The UK regulators said that this was a bit bollox and forced BT to spin off their internet side called 'Open Reach'. So Open Reach is now a separate company but still owned and funded by BT, sort of

Gamepass is for mobile whales. That's what Microsoft are aiming for. Purchasing Acti (King) allows them to push Gamepass games through kings' software to access 100's of millions of phones and new customers.
 
IMO the general gaming public that frequent gaming sites - that are knowledgeable about the potential fallout of this deal - are against this deal by majority
General gaming public equating PlayStation fanboys? There are not a lot of switch or PC players against this.
The market leader and their fans opinion being treated as gospel would be much more harmful for the competition than what this deal does.

The UK could go the same route that they did with Virgin and BT; spin off a department. I know Microsoft would be up for spinning the xbox division off in to a 'separate company. It gives them more flexibility to sell it off like they tried doing a few years before.

Plus, having Xbox separate from MS would allow them to more easily out Gamepass on more platforms.
Microsoft has invested almost 100 billion dollars in videogames because they want to sell the Xbox division, makes sense.

I think our regulators will be looking at the sustainable revenue from companies like Activision and PlayStation against the revenue the market currently brings into the UK coffers (just from profitmaking industry companies) and then considers if MSFT's disruptive acquisition is going to help or hinder that status quo or help or hinder the growth potential with other players in the future.

Xbox failing to be self-funding and completely opaque in its revenue returns/losses for over two decades works against MSFT desire to acquire Activision IMO, and signals that the deal is just more profits for MSFT with complete collateral damage to the UK games market and depletion in money flowing back in taxes.

Given the way our economy in the UK is very large for a smallish population nation, and the games industry is a substantial part of the economy - and a driver for higher education for people wanting to work in the industry - I think the deal will always look to regulators at best like it serves MSFT and damages the market, and is against the UK economy short-term and long-term interests.
So you are you saying that they won't be looking at it from a competition POV but from their own interests? I don't see how that's better.
 
I think our regulators will be looking at the sustainable revenue from companies like Activision and PlayStation against the revenue the market currently brings into the UK coffers (just from profitmaking industry companies) and then considers if MSFT's disruptive acquisition is going to help or hinder that status quo or help or hinder the growth potential with other players in the future.

Xbox failing to be self-funding and completely opaque in its revenue returns/losses for over two decades works against MSFT desire to acquire Activision IMO, and signals that the deal is just more profits for MSFT with complete collateral damage to the UK games market and depletion in money flowing back in taxes.

Given the way our economy in the UK is very large for a smallish population nation, and the games industry is a substantial part of the economy - and a driver for higher education for people wanting to work in the industry - I think the deal will always look to regulators at best like it serves MSFT and damages the market, and is against the UK economy short-term and long-term interests.

Extremely well said. Moving COD to GP would cripple a number of businesses here in the UK.

Game.co.uk would not survive. They're barely afloat now. No annual big jump in in store footfall that COD generates? Yikes...
 
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MS and fair? Maybe you should ask the companies they've screwed over, over the years.
The big tech giants like MS, Apple, Google, Facebook etc should face super extra scrutiny in any purchases in future.
You have got a serious issue with Ms and big tech, we have got free market in most of the world, but there are some countries with government controlled economies and companies etc that you would fit in just right into.


Interestingly EU investigated(is investigating) a total of 17 cases involving Microsoft (antitrust and mergers) and 27 cases involving Sony (antitrust, mergers and cartel).
https://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/index.cfm?fuseaction=dsp_result&policy_area_id=
 
Microsoft has invested almost 100 billion dollars in videogames because they want to sell the Xbox division, makes sense.
They were going to sell it off a few years ago. Samsung were in the lead to purchase the division but nothing ever came of it.

And selling the division isn't the same as spinning it off like bt/open reach
 
They were going to sell it off a few years ago. Samsung were in the lead to purchase the division but nothing ever came of it.

And selling the division isn't the same as spinning it off like bt/open reach

I know Phil Spencer said that Microsoft was considering abandoning Xbox, but where did you read that Samsung was involved?
 
They were going to sell it off a few years ago. Samsung were in the lead to purchase the division but nothing ever came of it.

And selling the division isn't the same as spinning it off like bt/open reach
They were going to before doing the huge amount of investment they have done these last years. I don't think the situation is comparable at all
 
No, not suddenly. That's what I said in the other post, both phil and Satya have been name dropping Tencent multiple times. Tencent's rise to prominence and publisher dominance is probably in more than a few points in their cases to the EU and other regulators. That's what I think at least.
Yea, Tencent is one of the key competitors in the market that will help this deal go through. This knew report that Tencent is putting a bigger focus on outright acquiring companies will only strengthen MS' position.
 
Hold on. Phil has said Google is their rival not Sony. Yet everything Xbox does is to compete or put Sony out of business.

Now Google have said one of the reasons they're closing stadia is because of Xbox.

So which is it Phil? Mission accomplished?
 
Tencent has been picking up lots of pennies while Microsoft has been outright making enormous wholesale purchases. The applicability in terms of competitiveness isn't the same. Secondly, tencent doesnt have a hardware platform OR software/service/cloud infrastracture, so they have no means of controlling the distribution like MS.

To call Tencent a good reason for why this deal with absolutely go through is false. The deal will probably go through, but there are many reasons why it possibly couldn't.
 
Extremely well said. Moving COD to GP would cripple a number of businesses here in the UK.

Game.co.uk would not survive. They're barely afloat now. No annual big jump in in store footfall that COD generates? Yikes...
Retail is dead anyway. It's not Microsoft's job to keep that corpse alive.
 
He wouldn't be selling his position. Xbox would still be part of Microsoft and be funded by them, but it would be an independent department. I don't 100% know the details but in the UK the main phoneline provider is BT (british telecom) and they used to own almost all ISP and internet service. The UK regulators said that this was a bit bollox and forced BT to spin off their internet side called 'Open Reach'. So Open Reach is now a separate company but still owned and funded by BT, sort of

Live in the UK and haven't had a BT 'powered' ISP for like 25 years fortunately but moving on from that tangents. I think the key thing is the Ofcom forced them to have that independence. CMA might do so but honestly I don't think it's not the division that they would be forcing to do anything similar. It's Azure.
Gamepass is for mobile whales. That's what Microsoft are aiming for. Purchasing Acti (King) allows them to push Gamepass games through kings' software to access 100's of millions of phones and new customers.
It's for mtx buyers including mobile. I do think there is an interesting argument that MS keep alluding to. No regulators likes the duopoly that Apple and Google has on mobile app distribution, MS will clearly arguing that GP and King is the only way to break that duopoly in a meaningful way. Whether you believe that, who knows. If I was MS, I would be arguing that I would be introducing the MS store policy to a mobile app store.
 
Yea, Tencent is one of the key competitors in the market that will help this deal go through. This knew report that Tencent is putting a bigger focus on outright acquiring companies will only strengthen MS' position.
We're so afraid of Tencent outright aquiring companies that we're going to not be concerned about another company outright aquiring a company. Makes sense.

If the FCC or CMA were truly concerned about a Tencent total aquisition happening they can just block that aquisition. Not sure why this 'threat' is being introduced but I suspect it's the same threat of Amazon and Google overtaking gaming with negative effect that was being made during the 2018 aquisitions.
 
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I know Phil Spencer said that Microsoft was considering abandoning Xbox, but where did you read that Samsung was involved?
Pre-spencer when it was originally going to sold off.


They were going to before doing the huge amount of investment they have done these last years. I don't think the situation is comparable at all

Microsoft don't want to be in the console industry, they've made that clear a few times. I know, I know, lulz wtf u talking about Sony pony. But Microsoft are very good at telegraphing their plans years in advance.

Peter Moore told us in 2006 (or so) that gamer girl and the casuals were the future. Then Don Mattrick told us that streaming and online only was the future. Now Spencer is telling us how important it is to be able to play on more devices than ever and how gamepass is the future of xbox. As many devices as possible doesn't necessarily mean Sony and Nintendo platforms, It means bringing mobile games to console and going for the mobile market and its whales. They've said as much.
 
Extremely well said. Moving COD to GP would cripple a number of businesses here in the UK.

Game.co.uk would not survive. They're barely afloat now. No annual big jump in in store footfall that COD generates? Yikes...
Yeah, MS does a rev split with Gamespot in the US of digital purchase. I personally don't think regulators will be paying too much that aspect.

Also for the original point, what % of the UK games industry is retail media when you account for all jobs in the industry.
 
this deal failing would bring shitshow similar to let say MS buying Capcom or SE.

the important thing here it would put pressure on Phil and Xbox. MS do need Acti, the current state of XGS gaas titles are shit tier they don't have good revenue stream from their titles. HI MP is a failure, Gears MP died, Sot not making that much of money but good title for GP Subs the same goes for FH.
MS needs Acti for GAAS aspect alone.
 
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